The effect of shot limiting in MLS: Part One

This is part one of a two part series. Check back tomorrow for part two.

Thanks to their effectiveness at measuring and predicting aspects of an offense, we’ve seen shot based models, such as the expected goals model (xG) here at American Soccer Analysis, become increasingly popular. On the defensive side however, things are proving a lot harder to quantify.

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Weekend Kickoff: The Return to League Play

There are a lot of crazy things going on this week. Forget all the hype and insanity that has taken center stage around the Cascadia Open Cup match-up. After losing to the Cosmos in the USOC this week, NYCFC continues to look bad and perform terrible. Philadelphia somehow staved off a very tenacious Rochester Raging Rhinos club that had upset written all over it. Charlotte Independence found a way to be the first USL Pro team to knock off a MLS club in the tournament and lastly Orlando beat former USL foe Charleston that went to penalty kicks (Danny Mwanga!).

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Looking past the hot takes: How will the loss of Martins and Dempsey affect the Sounders?

Those of you who read ASA regularly know that I am tentative declare to others that I am a “Sounders fan” because of the bias and label that it automatically associates with me and my analysis. Last night, to me, was a wonderful game played by titanic rivals. Extra time happened and things began to take shape and my thought was regardless of the outcome we would yet again be talking about the epic-ness of when the Timbers and Sounder meet in battle.

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Weekend Kickoff: Living in another world

I've come to the harsh realization that this week my ideas within Major League Soccer are a bit different from the rest of yours. It's not that my ideas are better or worse, again, just different. That's not an effort to be politically correct or validate both of our (yours and mine) opinions, rather it's just two different methods of analysis.

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Evaluating goalkeepers: Save Percentage vs Goals Against Average

It’s nice to see MLS goalkeepers starting to pick it up. After a rough first couple months, we have finally compiled enough saves to have an honest Save of the Week competition.

So because of the sudden upswing in production, now is a great time to take a look at some stats instead of walking through every goalkeeper’s worse game this season. This month, we’re going to take a look at the stats Goals Against Average and Save Percentage to find out which one is worse. Or perhaps which stat is better, if you’re more optimistically inclined. It’s no secret that both stats are rather useless when gauging goalkeepers. There’s a reason why no one is bragging about being in the top ten GAA: it’s not that stellar of a group to be in. Sure we’ve got some of the all-time greats in there, but… Josh Saunders and Bouna Coundoul are in the list? Jimmy Nielsen is not only number one but he’s significantly ahead of his peers. That seems incorrect.

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Which MLS players take "good" shots? (And does Lovel Palmer take all the bad ones?)

I have been a frequent and vocal critic of Lovel Palmer, and his all too frequent tendency to launch shots from 40 yards into the 40th row.

Ask around, and the journeyman is hardly beloved by the fans of any team he’s played for. When I unscientifically surveyed a few friends who are separately fans of his former teams, Palmer did not once get described using the words “quality”, “ability” or “skill.” Indeed, nearly everyone described him with a different variation of some four-letter word, but “frustration” is an apt synonym that sums them up. And most had a similar complaint; for every solid defensive play he makes, it always feels like he kills his own team’s attack because of his overconfidence in his long-range shot. A shot that has earned him four goals in his MLS career, and only one in the last three seasons. While my memory of his time with the Timbers may be unreliable, it seemed he was good for at least one cringe-worthy long distance shot per game. The below video encapsulates what I’m talking about:

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USMNT at the Netherlands: USMNT efficient and resilient

Jurgen Klinsmann’s investment in new players this cycle began to pay off as the USMNT earned some retribution with a late, come-from-behind win, shocking the Netherlands in Amsterdam 4-3. Gyasi Zardes (33’), Danny Williams (’89) and Bobby Wood (90’) all scored their first international goals while center back John Anthony Brooks (70’) scored his second to lead the United States to victory.

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MLS Proactive Score through May: The league’s most tactically diverse team is….

It’s time for our Monthly review of which teams play proactively and which teams play reactively in Major League Soccer (read this article for more background on how Pscore works). Three months into the MLS season and I’m ready to anoint the most tactically diverse team in MLS: the Vancouver Whitecaps. The Whitecaps are one of just three teams that currently have above average points per game, regardless of which style they play; reactively, proactively or somewhere in the middle. The other two teams are New England and FC Dallas. Vancouver wins the award because their distribution of games playing different styles is most evenly spread out.

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