Week 30 (Sept. 29 - Oct. 6) by Drew Olsen

Home Away hwin awin tie spread
PHI CHI 0.591 0.156 0.253 0.87
DCU SKC 0.307 0.398 0.295 -0.18
NYRB HOU 0.532 0.216 0.252 0.62
VAN FCD 0.459 0.250 0.291 0.33
NE CLB 0.433 0.214 0.354 0.32
LA TOR 0.612 0.149 0.239 0.92
SJ POR 0.436 0.221 0.342 0.38
COL SEA 0.397 0.307 0.296 0.13
CHI MTL 0.477 0.219 0.304 0.50
CHV RSL 0.270 0.458 0.272 -0.33

Notes

*Two away teams have the upper hand this week in Sporting KC and RSL. 

*The model is not convinced that Colorado is dead. The fact that the Rapids have the most underperforming underperformer by goals scored versus expected goals is just one indication that positive regression is likely. 

Week 29 (Sept. 22 - Sept. 28) by Drew Olsen

Hello, World!

Home Away hwin awin tie spread
FCD SEA 0.506 0.241 0.254 0.46
SKC NE 0.643 0.133 0.224 0.97
TOR POR 0.542 0.153 0.305 0.74
DCU PHI 0.323 0.380 0.298 -0.04
SEA CHV 0.661 0.099 0.240 1.08
VAN RSL 0.467 0.255 0.278 0.36
CLB MTL 0.404 0.270 0.326 0.30
COL SJ 0.537 0.158 0.305 0.70
HOU CHI 0.506 0.179 0.315 0.58
LA NYRB 0.627 0.169 0.204 0.84

Notes

*The highest probability of a win goes to Seattle in its second game of the week, which shouldn't surprise anyone considering its opponent.

*Philadelphia is the only away team this week to enjoy a greater probability of winning than its host. Philadelphia is above-average, but this has more to do with the fact that DC United's shot statistics are pretty much the worst in the league. 

Week 28 (Sept. 15 - Sept. 21) by Drew Olsen

Philadelphia versus Seattle (Open Cup Final)

Since there is no chance of a draw, the model is not designed to tackle this game. However, thanks to some research by Nate Silver, we can approximate how much of the draw probability should go to each team. The model likes Seattle better in a vacuum, but the teams aren't playing in a vacuum (they wouldn't all fit!). Below are the adjusted probabilities for this knockout-style matchup.

PHI: 60%

SEA: 40%

The regular season probabilities can be found below for week 28:

Home Away hwin awin tie spread
RSL COL 0.608 0.157 0.236 0.82
POR VAN 0.303 0.436 0.261 -0.11
PHI HOU 0.545 0.221 0.234 0.62
MTL SJ 0.374 0.269 0.357 0.23
NYRB SEA 0.452 0.272 0.275 0.31
CLB NE 0.409 0.292 0.300 0.29
CHI DCU 0.435 0.224 0.340 0.40
LA FCD 0.572 0.203 0.225 0.67
TOR CHV 0.520 0.169 0.311 0.66

Notes

*The biggest surprise is probably Vancouver being favored on the road. Portland has been worst in the league this season in even gamestates at home, and that affects the model the most. 

*Despite the fact that xGoals 2.0 isn't too keen on RSL overall, its home xGD in even gamestates is up there with Seattle's for best in the league. This helps to explain why it has the largest probability of winning of any team this week.