Conference Final Home Teams Have A First-leg Up

By Drew Olsen (@drewjolsen)

As you probably know, we've been projecting the MLS playoffs after each round of games. Using a bivariate Poisson model, we simulate goal scoring based off our expected goals model. Given that goals are an essential ingredient for emulating soccer's two-legged system, this has proven quite important, and the conference finals are no different.  

Based off of the somewhat unexpected home success of both Columbus and Portland in the first leg of their respective series, our new estimates for qualifying and winning MLS Cup 2015 are below. 

Team	Finals	Cup	Change
CLB	0.705	0.399	0.244
POR	0.761	0.248	0.122
NYRB	0.295	0.221	-0.275
FCD	0.239	0.132	-0.091

View fullsize