PScore, Tactics and game theory in MLS

Once we get an understanding of a team’s tactical preferences we can start to examine the best ways to respond to their approach. Using simple game theory we can start to look into the mind of a coach as he prepares his team. For example, the Seattle Sounders have consistently been a proactive team the last few seasons (and currently rank 2nd in the P Score Index in 2015). If you are a proactive team as well, and you’re about to visit the Sounders, do you go toe to toe with them and try to win the possession battle? Or do you play more reactively, sit back and play longer balls over the top of their aggressive defense?

In the June recap of the PScore (click here for May's recap), which scores a team’s proclivity to be possession oriented versus more direct in their approach, I’m going to analyze some tactical decisions and use game theory to determine the best mode of operation. I’ll even check to see if Nash Equilibriums exist (where both teams should definitely play a certain style regardless of the knowledge of what the opponent is doing). I do need to start by saying that sample sizes are still pretty small despite MLS having played 173 matches, so all conclusions must be taken with a grain of salt, or at worst not be considered conclusions. But at the very least I hope to lay the groundwork for future exploration in this area. It also serves as another check to see if the P Score is actually making logical sense.

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United States v Honduras Recap: Quality over Quantity

The USMNT held off a confident and gritty Honduras team and started Group A play in the CONCACAF Gold Cup with a 2-1 victory. Jurgen Klinsmann’s side was not sharp, holding less than 50% of possession against a team that was sitting back in a 5-4-1 formation, but they earned two goals off set pieces that found the magnificent head of Clint Dempsey, and broke up enough counterattacks by Honduras to survive.

The U.S.A.’s struggle with possession was part Klinsmann, part poor play and, of course, part Honduras. The troubles started tactically with Michael Bradley being placed at the top of the 4-4-2 diamond formation. The usually strong possession link between Kyle Beckerman and Bradley was broken up leaving the shuttling duo of Gyasi Zardes and DeAndre Yedlin to bring it back together. Both players are playing in an unnatural role and are not possession oriented players to begin with. Couple the midfield issue with just 50% pass completion percentage from right back Timmy Chandler and you have the recipe for a choppy performance.

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Gold Cup Team Preview: Cuba

On paper, Cuba is the worst team in this tournament. With both their FIFA and ELO rankings in the triple-digits, simply not losing any players to defection might be enough to satisfy many in Cuba. Mixed recent results - they drew fellow group C members Trinidad & Tobago 0-0 in last year’s Caribbean Cup, but also tied Curacao (177th in ELO) twice last month – make predictions difficult, but not being embarrassed in every game would probably be a successful tournament.

Getting information on this team is difficult because they’re the only roster that is made up entirely of players that play in their domestic league, and getting information into and out of Cuba isn’t exactly easy. Their greatest asset may come from how little their opponents know about them.

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Gold Cup Team Preview: Mexico

Last World Cup cycle, Mexico was an utter mess. The once kings of CONCACAF found themselves finishing in the last qualifying position, after the United States came from behind to beat Panama and handed their bitter rivals to the south a lifeline.

But Mexico wasn’t qualified just yet and still had to play a play-off series with New Zealand. It was at this time that Mexico hired then Club America coach, Miguel Piojo Herrera, to save Mexico. Herrera pretty much just brought his Club America team to New Zealand, a gamble that payed off, but nobody was really sure what the future of Mexico was going to look like going forward.

Who is their Head Coach?
American fans basked in hilarity of hearing stuff like this coming from their rivals, but El Piojo quietly rebuilt Mexico into the team they ended up being at the World Cup. His 5-3-2 system was not only novel, but it was incredibly nuanced in its attack and proved hard to break down. What’s more, it managed to allow Mexico’s stars to flourish in a way they simply weren’t in the previous system.

And as good as Mexico was in the World Cup, the team they are bringing to the Gold Cup is easily more talented which is why Mexico is considered by many, including myself, to be the tournament favorite.

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Gold Cup Team Preview: Trinidad & Tobago

I have pretty fond memories of watching Trinidad and Tobago's 2006 World Cup team. I remember their two spirited showings against England and Paraguay, but mostly I remember Shaka Hislop and the Soca Warriors CONCACAFing Henrik Larsson, Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Freddy Ljunberg, and Sweden while down a man.

It's definitely unfair to expect it, but this iteration of the T&T national team is not a breathtaking one. This iteration enters the Gold Cup having suffered losses to Jordan, Curacao, and Panama in the last three months. They currently sit 67th in the FIFA World Rankings, and 88th in the World Football Elo Ratings, their worst Elo rank since 2013. In order to have a successful tournament, they will need to recapture the form that saw them advance to the final of the 2014 Caribbean Cup (played last November), where they lost to Jamaica on penalty kicks.

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Gold Cup Team Preview: Guatemala

Guatemala is one of the teams being talked about the least, but don’t count them out. A favorable group draw and an experienced roster make this team a contender to become this year’s tournament surprise. Still, with only one win in their last eight games, questions about their coach and an overreliance on players well into their 30s may prove tough obstacles to overcome.

How did they get here?
They qualified for the Gold Cup by finishing 2nd in the 2014 Copa Centroamericana, losing  1-2 to Costa Rica in the final.

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Gold Cup Team Preview: El Salvador

They're here and they're not terrible. I think that's all I really have about them. 61% of their roster is comprised of guys from the local league, which most know practically nothing about, and those that are playing abroad aren't exactly playing in top leagues. The team has hipster pick written all over it and I feel like I could get on that train.

How did they get here?
Qualified through Central American zone coming in fourth place in 2014 Copa Centroamericana, losing to Panama 1-0 in the 3rd place game.

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Gold Cup Team Preview: Canada

Despite having the worst FIFA Ranking in the tournament, Canada is a good bet to get out of Group B and advance to the quarterfinals for the first time since 2009. They have quietly been playing very solid soccer for the last year and collected a 5-4-2 (W-D-L) record in their last eleven matches, including impressive draws against Bulgaria, Iceland and Panama. They are 5-1-0 in their last six CONCACAF matches as well. 

How did they get here?
Canada is a co-host for the tournament and therefore an automatic qualifier. This marks their 12th Gold Cup appearance out of thirteen, so they were a good bet to qualify regardless.

What Group are they in?
They are in Group B, along with favorite Costa Rica, Jamaica, and El Salvador. The winner of the group will play the Group A runner-up (probably Panama), the runner-up will play the Group C runner-up (probably Trinidad & Tobago or Guatemala) and third place will play either the Group C (Mexico) or Group A (USA) winner.

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Gold Cup Team Preview: Costa Rica

I know the popular thought going into this tournament is that the suave and cool pick to win everything is Costa Rica. They have a lot of very talented individuals throughout their roster rooted in various European leagues. It's basically everyone's best case scenario of how the United States roster would be constructed. A little bit of Serie A and a little bit of Premier League, a guy from La Liga. It's a recipe for either Jurgen Klinsmann's best XI or his family's bakery for cinnamon rolls. One or the other.

The thing about the roster is regardless of where the players are reporting from it hasn't directly influenced the recent results. Their current state is that they've done just enough to stay where they were coming out of the World Cup. Overall they've not been good, not necessarily bad, but not good. The last six months has seen them suffer draws to Paraguay and Mexico, losses to Panama, Colombia and Spain. They haven't actually won since 14 October last year against South Korea.

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Gold Cup Team Preview: Jamaica

This is a young and dynamic team that has all the various attributes that are so often associated with Jamaica. They've got speed and are a very attacking club, but they come with a bit more technique this time around. Unfortunately, after just participating in the Copa America, this call-up is a bit weaker than what we'd normally expect for a Gold Cup.
Speaking of the Copa America, they only managed 8 shots inside the box against Uruguay, Paraguay and Argentina, and surrendered 16 across their three group games. Which seems… not good. Until you consider that Uruguay is ranked 12th , Paraguay is ranked 37th and Argentina is still number deuce in the world according to ELOrating.net. Things look suddenly a little bit more rosy.

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