An Early Look at The 2019 USWNT World Cup Roster

/

We’ve got the three stars. We’ve had ourselves a ticker tape parade. And while I don’t think the celebration should end anytime soon, it’s been long enough since the final whistle blew in Vancouver to start thinking about the future of the USWNT.

Using logistic regression on data from all previous WWCs and factoring in position, age, and whether or not the player started the final competitive match in the previous World Cup*, I constructed a model that produces a very rough probability that a player that made the 2015 roster will make the cut for France 2019. Obviously, four years is a long time and a lot can change, so these probabilities are hardly precise and should be taken with a large grain of salt. I have not included goalkeepers, as the very small sample size makes things difficult to predict, and have also left out players that we already know will not play in 2019. Furthermore, I have included forwards but the sample size is also very small, making the probabilities even less precise than that of defenders and midfielders. So at the risk of getting way ahead of ourselves, here are the very rough probabilities that the members of the current squad will be back to defend the Cup in France:

Read More

USMNT 6-0 Cuba: The U.S. Smokes Cuba

/

On Saturday the U.S.A. cruised to a 6-0 victory over Cuba in the Gold Cup quarterfinals and advanced to play Jamaica in the semifinals. When a country with the population and the financial resources of the U.S. pounds on a country whose players are much more intrigued with the idea of leaving the team, it’s hard to get too excited about the victory. It’s an even harder match to break down statistically. How do you analyze a drubbing? Let’s just all feel good, right? Believe it or not I’ve found some statistics that will sober you right up.

Read More

Measuring Goalkeepers: The Limitations of Goals - xGoals

/

Last month we took a look at how bad the Goals Against Average (GAA) stat is for evaluating goalkeepers and how the save percentage (S%) is slightly better. To show the inefficiencies of the GAA and S%, I compared them to ASA’s own unique stat of Goals Minus Expected Goals (GmxG). The GmxG looks at where shots are taken, calculating the likelihood of a shot going in from that distance and angle to goal, which ends up telling us if a goalkeeper is giving up too many goals given the circumstances. This is great for a couple of reasons, the main one being that we have a more accurate reading on shots on goal than the ol’ shot percentage. If one goalkeeper consistently sees shots from distance while another is routinely left out to dry by his defense, the GmxG will let us know how many goals each goalkeeper should be conceding even if their SOG and goals are similar. However there are some shortcomings with any stat and the GmxG isn’t any different.

Read More

USMNT 1 - 1 Panama: Sitting back and taking it easy

/

A desperate Panama team did enough to draw the United States 1-1, and earn the point they absolutely needed to have a hope of advancing to the quarterfinals of the Gold Cup. The USMNT, perhaps distracted by the heat and a game that meant little, woke up in the second half enough to salvage their result and fend off the critics. Panama must now wait to see if they advance while the U.S. awaits the identity of their opponent.

Read More

The Practical Effects of MLS's Newest Rule

/

The new Targeted Allocation Mechanism (TAM) does a lot of things right for MLS. It creates another loophole to get more big-name players into the larger clubs, and creates some interesting pressure for smaller clubs. Overall, it tips the scales once again towards a star-driven league, as bigger clubs capture most of the benefit while their competition can only watch as the table stakes rise. It is an interesting development to the capgeeks out there, as it sets a precedent for more open spending and other, more balanced roster rules. If the league’s goal is for bigger and better plus (some) parity, TAM adds another building block. With a little bit of reorganization, the latest version of the MLS rulebook could be its best.

Read More

USMNT 1 - 0 Haiti: just good enough

/

The United States still has not played close to their best soccer in the 2015 Gold Cup, but they still secured first place in Group A with a 1-0 win over Haiti in their second Group match. After Haiti’s 1-1 draw against Panama you got the suspicion this game would be tighter than expected, but it was even tighter than that. Haiti battled the entire match in impressive fashion and earned chances, but in the end the quality in their finishes abandoned them. The U.S. ultimately scored the winning goal in the 47th minute from their only shot taken inside the 18-yard box - a one-time strike from Clint Dempsey off a nice back pass from Gyasi Zardes. This is yet another case of take the win and move on, but Klinsmann has to be concerned that the team is unable to control opponents this early in the tournament.

Read More

PScore, Tactics and game theory in MLS

/

Once we get an understanding of a team’s tactical preferences we can start to examine the best ways to respond to their approach. Using simple game theory we can start to look into the mind of a coach as he prepares his team. For example, the Seattle Sounders have consistently been a proactive team the last few seasons (and currently rank 2nd in the P Score Index in 2015). If you are a proactive team as well, and you’re about to visit the Sounders, do you go toe to toe with them and try to win the possession battle? Or do you play more reactively, sit back and play longer balls over the top of their aggressive defense?

In the June recap of the PScore (click here for May's recap), which scores a team’s proclivity to be possession oriented versus more direct in their approach, I’m going to analyze some tactical decisions and use game theory to determine the best mode of operation. I’ll even check to see if Nash Equilibriums exist (where both teams should definitely play a certain style regardless of the knowledge of what the opponent is doing). I do need to start by saying that sample sizes are still pretty small despite MLS having played 173 matches, so all conclusions must be taken with a grain of salt, or at worst not be considered conclusions. But at the very least I hope to lay the groundwork for future exploration in this area. It also serves as another check to see if the P Score is actually making logical sense.

Read More

United States v Honduras Recap: Quality over Quantity

/

The USMNT held off a confident and gritty Honduras team and started Group A play in the CONCACAF Gold Cup with a 2-1 victory. Jurgen Klinsmann’s side was not sharp, holding less than 50% of possession against a team that was sitting back in a 5-4-1 formation, but they earned two goals off set pieces that found the magnificent head of Clint Dempsey, and broke up enough counterattacks by Honduras to survive.

The U.S.A.’s struggle with possession was part Klinsmann, part poor play and, of course, part Honduras. The troubles started tactically with Michael Bradley being placed at the top of the 4-4-2 diamond formation. The usually strong possession link between Kyle Beckerman and Bradley was broken up leaving the shuttling duo of Gyasi Zardes and DeAndre Yedlin to bring it back together. Both players are playing in an unnatural role and are not possession oriented players to begin with. Couple the midfield issue with just 50% pass completion percentage from right back Timmy Chandler and you have the recipe for a choppy performance.

Read More

Gold Cup Team Preview: Cuba

/

On paper, Cuba is the worst team in this tournament. With both their FIFA and ELO rankings in the triple-digits, simply not losing any players to defection might be enough to satisfy many in Cuba. Mixed recent results - they drew fellow group C members Trinidad & Tobago 0-0 in last year’s Caribbean Cup, but also tied Curacao (177th in ELO) twice last month – make predictions difficult, but not being embarrassed in every game would probably be a successful tournament.

Getting information on this team is difficult because they’re the only roster that is made up entirely of players that play in their domestic league, and getting information into and out of Cuba isn’t exactly easy. Their greatest asset may come from how little their opponents know about them.

Read More

Gold Cup Team Preview: Mexico

/

Last World Cup cycle, Mexico was an utter mess. The once kings of CONCACAF found themselves finishing in the last qualifying position, after the United States came from behind to beat Panama and handed their bitter rivals to the south a lifeline.

But Mexico wasn’t qualified just yet and still had to play a play-off series with New Zealand. It was at this time that Mexico hired then Club America coach, Miguel Piojo Herrera, to save Mexico. Herrera pretty much just brought his Club America team to New Zealand, a gamble that payed off, but nobody was really sure what the future of Mexico was going to look like going forward.

Who is their Head Coach?
American fans basked in hilarity of hearing stuff like this coming from their rivals, but El Piojo quietly rebuilt Mexico into the team they ended up being at the World Cup. His 5-3-2 system was not only novel, but it was incredibly nuanced in its attack and proved hard to break down. What’s more, it managed to allow Mexico’s stars to flourish in a way they simply weren’t in the previous system.

And as good as Mexico was in the World Cup, the team they are bringing to the Gold Cup is easily more talented which is why Mexico is considered by many, including myself, to be the tournament favorite.

Read More