The luckiest and unluckiest teams in MLS

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The topic of luck is never too far away from soccer analysis. A team peppers its opponent with 20 shots in a game but scores just one goal, while the opponent manages two goals from just six shots. We’d be prone to call the losing team unlucky because it appears they dominated the game, but the reality is the losing team was just on the wrong side of a probability distribution curve for goals scored. Call it unlucky, or just call it an unlikely but possible outcome.

Consider the binomial distribution estimate of goals scored for the Philadelphia Union and LA Galaxy this year. The binomial distribution is created using the teams' actual finishing rates and shots attempted per game.  

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August PScore Update: LEGOs, True Detective and the Bible

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What does the LEGO Movie, HBO’s True Detective and the Bible’s Book of Ecclesiastes have in common?  Everything. The world is obsessed with condensing this chaotic world into mid-afternoon snacks and we’ve reached the logical end of summarizing everything. There is the famous LEGO Movie song “Everything is Awesome” - which is of course wildly optimistic. There is True Detective’s infamous and terrible line in episode 5 where a prostitute claimed that “Everything is F*cking” - which is wildly disturbing and pessimistic. And there is the wisdom of King Solomon, who in the Bible’s Book of Ecclesiastes, said that “Everything is meaningless, a chasing after the wind.” According to Hollywood we now know that Stephen Hawking developed The Theory of Everything and there’s the classic sports diehard “winning is everything.” It sounds like everything is being reduced to well, everything. 

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Presenting Expected Goals by Game

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If you migrate over to the xGoals 3.0 tab, you can now find a "By game" option, complete with some team-level expected goals stats from each game this season.

Using our fun sorting capabilities, we might observe that three of the top six expected goal differential (xGD) advantages for home teams have been produced by the New York Red Bulls, and last week's drubbing of D.C. United was only New York's third-best showing of those three--at least, in terms of xGD. Of the top-20 xGD performances by home teams, the home team has won 19 of them and tied one. 

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How Valuable Are MLS Teams Compared To Other U.S. Leagues?

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You don’t need actual profits to create a lot of financial value. Just ask Twitter. The potential to generate profit in the future is plenty enough for investors. Because of this paradigm, MLS Commissioner Don Garber repeatedly insults our intelligence when he emphasizes the league is losing money. And now Forbes, in so few numbers, agrees. According to Forbes, the league is generating negative EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) but the value of MLS franchises has increased by 50% over the last two years. Forbes doesn’t offer much detail, but perhaps looking at other sports projections can help put the numbers in context.

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Shot Limiting: Bringing the heat (maps)

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Earlier this year, I decided the world needed a 30 page paper on shot limiting in MLS. Of course, the powers that be found this to be a tad self indulgent, and more accurately, sad that I had the time to do such a thing. They ended up talking me down to a slightly more readable 20 pages, which can be read here.

But my art will not be compromised, gosh darnit! There is still so much to be learned about this topic, and, more to the point, my obsession hadn’t been quenched. Several questions were raised within the paper that I simply didn’t have the necessary data to explore.

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Goalkeepers: Under Attack!

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There’s an interesting movement happening in MLS with officiating towards goalkeeping. Wherever you stand on the quality of MLS referees, you can’t argue that they’re quick to call penalties, whether it’s on a defender or a goalkeeper. Tim Froh captured a good quote from an international player on the differences between playing in MLS versus playing back home in Argentina. So let’s take a look at what’s happening in MLS and where it could be going.

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Weekend Kickoff: Round 23

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Last week, I talked about the tiers of MLS and teams that are going to be the ones to watch as we close out this season. Since there is no relegation (and that is not a statement that implies I'm either for or against it), wading through the rest of the season as a Chicago Fire or Colorado Rapids supporter could be a burdensome and/or underwhelming task. That said, there are a few things to watch for from MLS as a whole as we race towards the end of the season.

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July P Score: Reactive Games Lead to Fewer Goals

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Change was good for some teams in July and not for others. FC Dallas and Colorado Rapids had perfect months while playing more proactively than earlier in the season. Meanwhile, Orlando City SC and Seattle Sounders had difficult months and were more reactive than they had ever been.

Below is the latest P Score table. Orlando still maintains their top spot, but Montreal caught up by being the most proactive team in July. This month I added each team’s opponent's P Score. Interestingly but not surprisingly, teams play more reactively against the New York Red Bulls and Sporting Kansas City.

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How DC United continues to beat the odds

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MLS will not be a top league until its coaches find better ways to connect projection metrics to tactical changes. Ben Olsen is showing he may be on the right track. The more data that is collected on variables such as game variability, individual player contributions and spatial frequency, the more information there is to digest and to affect playing, teaching and coaching. Therefore the issue lies in the translation of such data into meaningful, impactful resolutions that can be measured by on-field progress.

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Weekend Kickoff

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In most sports after an All-Star game, the remaining portion of the schedule is called the “second half of the season.” But with the manner in which Major League Soccer administers it's schedule and the general accumulation of games that are played during that time period,. I look at it slightly different. I look at pre-All-Star game as the first act, the All-Star game is intermission, and post All-Star is the second act.

In other words, Soccer is straight drama. The great Bill Shakespeare once said:

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