Lowered Expectations: Week 25

Lowered Expectations: Week 25

Welcome to Lowered Expectations, week 25 edition! Each week, we go about posting chalkboards and GIFs of the weekend’s best open-play shot attempts which did not quite live up to expectations (and rarely do we update this paragraph). We look at each one and not only evaluate the results, but also the process leading to them.

Read More

Ranking the Wingers

We’re all here because someone on Twitter started a discussion pertaining to ranking MLS wingers. I’m certain that my rankings won’t satisfactorally answer that question to everybody’s liking, but hopefully it adds something useful to the conversation. First of all, let’s establish some rules.

1)    The definition of a winger for this context is going to be super vague. Essentially a wide player lined up in the midfield according to the team lineup provided at the start of a match. Argue that however you wish. This just seems easiest.

2)    The player has to have played 500 minutes in the position his season. We’re not doing this “well--he’s been a winger in the past” or “he’s been really good when played out on the wing in a few games”. I’m not playing this game. It’s 500 minutes, meet it or beat it.

3)    If you’ve met the criteria above you get a mention in this.

4)    I’m going to provide some data with these thoughts. That will of course come from American Soccer Analysis. I could have broken things down far enough to where we only consider the advanced metrics, but we have to draw the line somewhere so we’re using numbers agnostic of the position played.

5)    Look. This is a rankings list. We’re not going to agree on all of these. It’s perfectly reasonable for you to think that I am in fact, wrong. That is fine. I might be.

Let’s get on with it.

Read More

Little Things From Week 25: Tata Tactics, and the two sides of McBean and Steres

Little Things From Week 25: Tata Tactics, and the two sides of McBean and Steres

Gregg Berhalter and Tata Martino provided another installment of their budding coaching rivalry on Sunday, a rivalry that will grow to the level of Jesse Marsch vs. Patrick Vieira when they inevitably meet in the conference semifinals this year.

Atlanta United and the Columbus Crew have a way of providing open, action-packed tactical chess matches. They did it again at the Benz, a 3-1 Atlanta win. The Five Stripes’ talent quotient was too much for a Crew team that pales in comparison.

Tata approached the game knowing that Berhalter would have Columbus trying to pass out of pressure and play from the back. The Crew are one of the few teams to go to Atlanta and make a concerted effort to control the game. For the most part, they did an effective job of it, taking the ball off the feet of Miguel Almiron and opening chances in the other direction.

Read More

Orlando, DC, and MLS' Latest Strategic Fashions

Orlando, DC, and MLS' Latest Strategic Fashions

The press (whether high, counter, or other) is in vogue in MLS. MLS teams are, on average, they pressiest they’ve ever been. The Red Bulls, NYCFC, Atlanta, and New England all primarily defend in some form of press. A handful of other teams - Sporting Kansas City and LAFC most prominently - go to it on occasion. Orlando City began the season trying to play a higher pressure defense:

Read More

A Statistical USMNT Youngster Deep-Dive

A Statistical USMNT Youngster Deep-Dive

In Major League Soccer, young players don’t always get a chance to show their stuff. When they do get a chance, only a very small percentage of players under 21 actually add value to a team over more experienced options - that’s why it is such a big deal when youngsters play and make an impact in MLS. Because of the relative rarity of young players getting minutes in MLS, we are going to look at and appreciate some of the top U-21 talent that has burst onto the scene and produced this season.

Read More

Setting the Table Week 24: Replacing Ramirez in Minnesota, The TFC enigma, and Royer the Creator

Setting the Table Week 24: Replacing Ramirez in Minnesota, The TFC enigma, and Royer the Creator

Welcome to Setting the Table. Each week we take some time to focus on the best chance creators in MLS from the last weekend. If you want to see the best chances that were wasted check out Lowered Expectations. Here we focus on chances that ended with the ball in the back of the net.

Read More

Lowered Expectations: Week 24

Lowered Expectations: Week 24

Welcome to Lowered Expectations, week 24 edition! Each week, we go about posting chalkboards and GIFs of the weekend’s best open-play shot attempts which did not quite live up to expectations (and rarely do we update this paragraph). We look at each one and not only evaluate the results, but also the process leading to them.

Read More

Expected Narratives: DRAAAAAAMA

Expected Narratives: DRAAAAAAMA

For many in Sports media around the world, Deadline Day is one that is circled three times on the calendar. The reason? DRAAAAAAMA. So much drama. Helicopters being deployed all over Europe, fax machine malfunctions, Harry Redknapp, players just up and showing up at rival teams training facility hoping to force a move, and of course, the heartbreak for fans and players of dream deals falling just short.

MLS does not have this. The league is too centralized. Europe has an entire industry devoted to transfer speculation and rumor mongering that gets fans into an agitated fugue state. That industry is not as well established here in Major League Soccer. Teams tend to be pretty leaky and so there are very few transactions that come as a real surprise. There is a lot of irony on Twitter about various odd situations that demonstrate how “soccer has finally made it here”, but until we get our own Harry Redknapp getting blockaded in his car by reporters on the way home from practice, we’re still just playing dress up.

Read More

The good, the bad, and the unlucky: What Expected Points tell us about the 2018 MLS season

The good, the bad, and the unlucky: What Expected Points tell us about the 2018 MLS season

Expected goals (xG) has finally made it, the Times of London are including an alternate table for the English Premier League based upon per game xG for this season. While using only which team had the highest xG in a game for determining a winner is problematic, it is still a step in the right analytical direction.

Read More