The Tactical Proactivity of each MLS Team

The Tactical Proactivity of each MLS Team

The MLS playoff drama is peaking with all but a half dozen teams dreaming of postseason glory. All the teams have played their tactical cards by now and the chess matches from here on out should be very entertaining. It’s therefore high time to look at a model whose goal is to examine the very chess moves that teams are making and look for insights. The Proactivity Score (Pscore), an attempt to numerically represent a teams basic tactical approach, has been updated through August 27th and there are some interesting new trends. Here’s a chart of where teams stand:

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Playoff Seeding Probabilities Model

Playoff Seeding Probabilities Model

Starting yesterday, you will find playoff seeding probabilities in our web app. We show the probability that each team finishes in each playoff seeding position in its conference, as well as the Supporters’ Shield probabilities for all teams.

What is this based on? Well, it’s a two-part process. First, we built a model capable of predicting the probabilities of future game outcomes based on team performance to date. Then we set up a simulation to randomly determine outcomes for all the remaining games this season, with probabilities derived from that predictive model. For each of 1,000 simulated seasons, we tallied each team’s final points, wins, and goals scored and allowed, and seeded the teams in each conference. Then we figured out what proportion of those 1,000 seasons each team finished in each place.

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Little Things from Week 29: Orlando's bunker, Higuita's strength, and Colorado missteps

Little Things from Week 29: Orlando's bunker, Higuita's strength, and Colorado missteps

Sporting KC survived at home against Orlando on Saturday, winning 1-0 on a Felipe Gutierrez strike. They were missing three potential starters (Daniel Salloi and Diego Rubio on int’l duty, Ike Opara on yellow card suspension) and consistently lacked ideas in the final third. But Orlando didn’t generate anything, so SKC walked away with three points.

Under James O’Conner, OCSC have bunkered. Their defensive line is deep, the midfield is tight to the backline and they often sit 11 in the defensive half. At some point, they’ll have to figure out how to do more than that.

They struggled to possess the ball against Sporting, who are a notoriously difficult team to possess the ball against. That doesn’t make abomination this any better from Orlando:

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Building a System for Assessing Player Value

Building a System for Assessing Player Value

For years I’ve been interested in how players contribute to team results.  I’ve sought a measure of player contributions to a win that covered all aspects of a game. While many valuable and informative soccer metrics have been created, common stats are not entirely on point with this issue.

For example, xG stats apply only to scoring attempts, and perhaps goalkeepers. Adding xAssists and key passes broadens the scope of included players. But the contribution of defensive oriented players would not be expected to show up on these metrics. And offensive-oriented players would still rely on teammates to threaten the net before their effort can be measured.

The xGChain metric is useful for identifying players that participate in the most productive attacks, and includes players that play further away from the goal. But this metric does not include non-offensive actions. And each players’ contribution is given equal weight, whether it’s the initial square pass to a CB in the defensive half, or delivering a cross into the penalty area. Experienced analysts consider the dashboard of key performance indicators and piece together insights from the elements.  But I’m looking to consolidate all game elements with a common perspective.

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Expected Narratives: Seattle Can't/Won't Stop; Presumably Sorry/Not Sorry

Expected Narratives: Seattle Can't/Won't Stop; Presumably Sorry/Not Sorry

Wayne Rooney has conquered Major League Soccer. It is time to forget all of that clearly misguided “young South American talent Atlanta-y whatever” and get back to what really works and that’s bringing in over 30 stars from European leagues. I chuckle heartily at all of you “it’s not his age, it’s how many minutes he’s played - the man can barely run” types who seem somewhat surprised to watch the captain and leading goalscorer of England and Manchester United perform at a high level in Major League Soccer. I mean he’s turned Luciano Acosta into Ronaldo (either one, take your pick - I don’t care), and vanquished the mighty outliers of Atlanta.  All hyperbole aside, DC United are looking good and that’s something worth smiling about.

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Lowered Expectations: Week 27

Lowered Expectations: Week 27

Welcome to Lowered Expectations, week 27 edition! Each week, we go about posting chalkboards and GIFs of the weekend’s best open-play shot attempts which did not quite live up to expectations (and rarely do we update this paragraph). We look at each one and not only evaluate the results, but also the process leading to them.

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The case for pulling the goalie in soccer and the math behind Ben Olsen's madness

The case for pulling the goalie in soccer and the math behind Ben Olsen's madness

The game is ice hockey. One team is behind a goal as the seconds wind down. Conventional thinking for the head coach of the losing team is to direct the goalie off the ice while a substitute enters the game. This gives the team a six to five player advantage at one end of the ice, but gives the leading team a much higher chance of adding to their lead. Starting in 2013 NHL teams became more aggressive with this strategy, and a paper released earlier this year proposed that teams should get at least three times as aggressive as they are. The math clearly lines up with the strategy.

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Lowered Expectations: Week 26

Lowered Expectations: Week 26

Welcome to Lowered Expectations, week 25 edition! Each week, we go about posting chalkboards and GIFs of the weekend’s best open-play shot attempts which did not quite live up to expectations (and rarely do we update this paragraph). We look at each one and not only evaluate the results, but also the process leading to them.

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Expected Narratives: Chara's MVP Chances and Dempsey's Place In History

Expected Narratives: Chara's MVP Chances and Dempsey's Place In History

Ok fine. Nothing Josef Martinez has or will do is within the jurisdiction of analysis. He is perfect in every way. He has created 28 goals from nothing. Where once there were scoreless games Josef declared “let there be goals” and he saw the goals and he saw that they were good. I cannot see how Atlanta fans will take issue with this, so I can’t wait to see the ways in which they will. I’m going to say something nice about Philadelphia now, because I’m jealous that other soccer writing people get their pull quotes immortalized in the awesome brushtip font on Twitter. So here we go:

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