This is the fifth article in a series of articles and videos in the Where Goals Come From project from Jamon Moore and Carl Carpenter.
Data providers and analysts have long talked about successful passing “into the box” and shots that come from it, however, until now, we are not aware of a framework for providing context of how to separate “good, better, and best” of these situations other than location as identified by Expected Goals (xG), particularly one that can be used at all levels of a football club. In our estimation, this does not make the information very actionable for players. Expected Goals on their own do not provide a way of telling us the situation that created a shot.
As we are demonstrating in these “Where Goals Come From” articles, situational context matters a great deal. It’s not just the type of pass, but details such as the direction of the pass, the speed of play, the number of defenders between the ball and goal, the height of the pass, the quality of the reception (first touch), the location of the goalkeeper, and much more.
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