A 2026 NWSL Midseason Analysis From the Lens of Expected Threat
/Expected Threat (xT) is a model that estimates the value of a pass or carry based on its likelihood of leading to a shot and the danger associated with that shot. Unlike Karun Singh’s original xT framework, which relies entirely on historical transition probabilities, this version incorporates a logistic expected goals (xG) component to better capture shot quality. This analysis is inspired by similar work conducted by Chloe Sainsbury in 2025.
Thus this version of Expected Threat is defined as:
where s is the state or better known as the location of the ball. In simple terms, the model assigns value to a location based on three factors: (1) the likelihood of generating a shot, (2) the expected quality of that shot, and (3) the value of moving the ball to a more threatening location.
This version of the model is location based, so it penalizes backward passes from dangerous areas into less threatening ones. For example, a pass from the penalty area to the 18-yard line incurs a directional penalty proportional to the zone-value difference. This avoids over-crediting conservative play. If you’re familiar with ASA’s goals added model, this is similar to how g+ handles passing without receiving or future possessions factored in. Unlike goals added, all turnovers here are just credited with an xT of 0.
Because this is a midseason analysis, the xT surface was generated using league-wide 2025 NWSL data and then applied to 2026 events. Although I don’t believe the style of play has changed drastically from last season to this season, that may alter the interpretability of these findings. Throughout this analysis, "raw xT" refers to the net sum of xT generated by a player and is used to highlight players who create danger at a high volume.
We’ll start with a ranking of all teams based on xT generated. San Diego ranks number one at 10.99 xT, followed by Angel City at 9.76 xT and Kansas City at 9.67. Unsurprisingly, last place in xT standings is a team towards the bottom at the midseason mark, Chicago at 7.43 xT. Chicago has created around the equivalent of four fewer goals worth of threat through passing and carries than San Diego has so far this season.
Interestingly, creating dangerous chances doesn’t necessarily translate to results, or mean you score a lot of goals, given the inherent noise of finishing. Portland leads the league in goals scored at 20 goals on the season, but barely cracks the top half of teams in xT, at 9.83. The Washington Spirit, despite having the largest goal differential so far, is second to last in xT. One thing to keep in mind, possession value style models like xT loves attacking half and final third possession. Someone like Orlando, having Barbra Banda who wreaks havoc in transition, but spends comparatively less time in the box, won’t show up particularly well here.
Racing Louisville
We’ll start at the bottom of midseason standings and work our way up. Racing Louisville, despite a difficult start to the season, rank in the top half of the league in Expected Threat while sitting last in the standings. The discrepancy is particularly intriguing as they sit at the bottom of the table, but have both scored a reasonable number of goals and conceded at a relatively stable rate. There’s a major gap between underlying attacking output and match results.
There are some bright spots however. Center back Courtney Petersen (1.49) leads the team and ranks 8th overall in the league in xT. Louisville ranks second in Expected Threat generated from the defensive third, largely in part of Petersen's strong passing from the back. Louisville also ranks in the top 25% of teams from the corners, we love a set piece at ASA.
The double pivot of Katie O’Kane and Taylor Flint is definitely a threat for Louisville with 1.21 and 0.70 xT respectively. Emma Sears, despite having a slight dip in form from the 2025 season, has already generated 0.86 xT, which is about half of what she created in her standout 2025 season. Goalkeeper Jordyn Bloomer is fifth in the squad with 0.69, which probably says more about Louisville’s season so far than they’d like it to. Racing have been competitive in most matches, with all eight of their losses coming by a single goal. Turning those losses into draws or wins would help them a great deal on the table.
Chicago Stars
A stark contrast from Louisville is Chicago; Chicago is on nine points on the season, only two points above Louisville, and dead last in Expected Threat created. Chicago has not only struggled to create dangerous chances, but also have struggled to score goals as well, only scoring five goals in 12 matches. Their lack of creative threat has been striking.
On the bright side, Sam Staab is continuing where she left off last season. Staab ranks fourth overall in xT at 1.63, leading Chicago. In fact, her 1.63 xT accounts for 22% of all of Chicago’s xT generated through the midseason mark. That’s the highest share xT of a team's total behind only Kenza Dali’s 24% for San Diego. Chicago ranks fourth amongst all teams in threat created from the defensive third, which comes as no surprise as three of Chicago’s top five are defenders: the aforementioned Staab, Jenna Bike (0.57), Michelle Alozie (0.51).
However, the Stars are dead last in threat created from the middle third and final third, confirming the fact that Chicago has had very little creative threat, indicating the defenders are popping on volume, rather than successful progression.
For Chicago, it's been Staab or nothing. Hopefully the rest of Chicago’s top five of Manaka Hayashi (0.71), Ryan Gareis (0.68), Bike, and Alozie can be a little more threatening. Mal Swanson’s complete return from maternity leave should be a boost.
Boston Legacy
Newcomers Boston Legacy have had a tough start to their season, sitting 14th in the standings. However, on the Expected Threat side of things, they are punching above their weight, at 10th. Boston is particularly interesting for how it creates attacking danger. Rather than building through a single channel, the Legacy generates threats across the edges of the penalty area. Their heat map shows a slight preference for the right-hand side, but overall their attacking activity is distributed around the perimeter of the box, suggesting a focus on entries into high-value zones rather than sustained buildup in deeper areas.The Legacy are led by Alba Caño 1.43 xT (17% of all Boston xT). Caño is followed by winger Nichelle Prince (1.03), defenders Jorelyn Carabali (0.93), Bianca St. Georges (0.8), and Sammy Smith (0.74) . Despite defenders rounding out three of Boston’s top five players in xT, Boston ranks #14 in xT created from the defensive third.
Things are better for Boston coming from the middle and the final third, in large part thanks to Caño, who uses the half spaces in the final third well. Together, Boston’s profile points to a team that is able to generate danger once it enters advanced zones, even if its overall league results have not yet caught up to its underlying attacking output. The addition of Gotham defender Lily Reale and her 0.66 xT should be a benefit as Gotham look to progress in the back half of the year.
Bay FC
Bay has a similar threat profile to Boston. Taylor Huff (1.27), playing mostly as the attacking midfielder, leads the way, followed by right back Sydney Collins (0.86), holding midfielder Hannah Bebar (0.77), forwards Racheal Kundananji (0.73) and Caroline Conti (0.66).
Overall, Bay’s attacking profile is characterized by dispersed and inconsistent threat creation rather than concentrated progression through specific channels. Bay heavily favors the left hand side of the pitch, with 46% of attacking threats built there.
While Huff leads the team in xT, she isn't producing elite-volume threat, ranking outside the league’s top 15. Kundananji being fourth on Bay is notable given her role as Bay’s most creative attacking player expected to consistently drive entries into dangerous areas, and for the offense to flow through her in past seasons. Bay FC’s attacking struggles are less about individual absence of talent and more about difficulty consistently connecting possession into the league’s most dangerous zones. They have the talent in Huff, Kundamanji, and Claire Hutton; they just need to do more.
Angel City
Angel City have had a strongly attack-oriented season, generating the second most Expected Threat, yet they sit 12th in the table, four spots out of from playoffs. Angel City has however made a lot of changes since approaching the midseason mark, having fired head coach Alex Straus and traded away Kennedy Fuller. Offensively, Angel City is led by Evelyn Shores (1.77) who ranks third in overall xT, and is only one of five players to generate over 1.6 xT so far this eason. Shores is followed by (or should I say was followed by) Kennedy Fuller (1.10), Sveindís Jónsdóttir (0.98), Gisele Thompson (0.91), and Emily Sams (0.72).
Angel City has been brilliant in creating threat from the final third, ranking first in the league in threat generated there. Shores and Thompson, progressive wing backs, have been pushing high up the field and creating a bulk of ACFC’s chances. Only 14% of Angel City’s xT has come from the central channel. Fuller, a top performer prior to the trade, used the right side of the pitch quite effectively. Jónsdóttir, despite missing time with a knee injury, stretched the back line and was able to receive balls in the final third.
Fuller’s trade to Bay FC is a huge blow to Angel City’s attacking threat. Angel City is a high-volume attacking team whose league position has not matched their underlying chance creation. Fuller will be a huge loss, exchanging her for an incoming Ally Sentnor, the fifth highest xT creator for Kansas City.
Houston Dash
The Houston Dash’s promising start to the season has tapered off in recent weeks, as they entered a six-match winless run following their victory over Racing Louisville in early April. The Dash sit 11th in the table, three places outside of playoffs, but sit second to last in Expected Threat created. The Dash are heavily reliant on rookie Kat Rader, who leads the team in xT at 1.32, putting her just outside the top 15 in the league overall. Avery Patterson, deployed in either fullback and winger roles, is Houston’s second-highest contributor with 1.28 xT. Rader and Patterson are supported by rookie fullback Leah Klenke (0.96) and established veterans Malia Berkely (0.63) and Lisa Boattin (0.57).
Houston has struggled to use all thirds of the pitch, ranking eight in threat created from the defensive third, thirteenth in middle third, and fifteenth in the final third. Similarly, Houston haven’t stood out on any side of the pitch, despite solid performances from Rader and Patterson, their right hand side menace. Despite Patterson dominating their creative process, Houston favors the left side of the pitch, using it for 47% of their attack. Houston is the first team we have come across with a solid dark blue interior of the box; which well, means Houston isn’t really using the inside of the box. There’s some free game. Get into the box.
Seattle Reign
Onto Seattle. Seattle had a good start to the season, but came upon a tough run of form, going through a five game winless streak that lasted most of March and all of April. Nérilia Mondésir is having an incredible season, despite only having played over 45 minutes in three of Seattle’s 11 matches. Seattle sits 10th in the standings, only two spots away from the playoffs. Playing their most dangerous player would certainly help their chances. Mondésir is Seattle’s only player in the league’s overall top 15, ranking 14th with 1.59 xT. Assist leader Sofia Huerta (1.22), Madison Curry (1.13), Emeri Adames (0.93), and Maddy Dahlien (0.62) round out the top five for Seattle.
Seattle is remarkably average in total expected threat created, ranking 11th at 8.91 xT, and ranking 7th in threat created from the defensive and middle thirds, and 10th in the final third. Seattle slightly favors the left, creating 47% of their threat from the left, center 11% and the right 42%. The heatmap however tells a different story. Seattle is using the right hand side of the pitch more effectively compared to other teams in the league, a result of Huerta’s consistent threat and the immersive threat Mondésir creates when played.
Seattle is the only team so far where their top player in xT doesn’t regularly start. Seattle is also the only team where two of the top five in xT don’t start regularly. Mondésir only started half of the Reign’s games in the first half of the season, and Adames started only five. Adames and Mondésir are two of Seattle’s most dangerous players; for a team that needs to create more, it needs to play them.
Denver Summit
The other expansion team, the Denver Summit, has done well for themself. The Summit sit ninth in the table, one place out of the playoffs. Expected Threat wise, they sit further in the bottom half at 12th. Their attacking profile shares similarities with Bay FC, with a concentration of threat originating from the left corner of the penalty area.
Denver’s threat is primarily created by the linkup of left-back Carson Pickett (1.07) and winger Yazmeen Ryan (1.02), which comes as no surprise, given they have generated half their expected threat from the left. However, the team leader in xT is right back Janine Sonis, who has generated 1.49 xT and ranks 11th overall in the league. Sonis’ impact appears clearly on the threat creation heatmap, as Denver is in the upper quarter of teams in threat created on the right wing.
Despite splitting time with both Sonis and Pickett at the fullback positions, Ayo Oke ranks fourth in Denver with 0.68 xT. Center back Eva Gaetino rounds out the top five at 0.54 xT. Overall, Denver’s attacking output is shaped by strong full back play on both sides, and contributions from deeper positions.
Orlando Pride
Onward to teams that are currently in playoff position! Orlando is the first one out coming in 8th in the table and 7th in Expected Threat created as a team.
Orlando generated a large portion of their attacking threat down the right goal line, heavily influenced by the presence of Barbra Banda. Without Banda, Orlando is a different team: they lose Banda’s incredible goal scoring, but also Banda’s ability to create danger.
That distinction belongs to Ally Lemos with 1.48 generated so far. Lemos, a defensive midfielder, has excelled at using deep spaces to generate threat through ball prgression. The heat map shows a sea of light green in the forward half of the middle third; that’s Lemos. She ranks 8th overall in the league, and is the only defensive midfielder in the top 15.
While models like xT generally like possession, and Barbra Banda is a transition monster, she still rates highly in threat created, coming in second in Orlando’s team rankings at 0.93. Orlando’s threat is rounded out by Angelina (1.00), Oihane Hernández (0.922), and record transfer Lizbeth Ovalle (0.764). Overall, Orlando combines an elite attacking threat through Banda with an unusual deep-lying source of chance creation through Lemos, making them a hard team to stop.
North Carolina Courage
North Carolina sits seventh in the midseason table and sixth in Expected Threat created. North Carolina has probably been the overall most dangerous squad of passers, led by midfielder Riley Jackson (1.40), right back Ryan Williams (1.37), winger Ashley Sanchez (1.19), center back Natalia Staude (0.93), and midfielder-come-striker Manaka Matsukubo (0.79). They are the only team in the league to have all five of their top contributors generate at least 0.7 xT, highlighting both depth and consistency in their chance creation. Unfortunately, Matsukubo has departed the Courage for the FAWSL’s Chelsea.
The Courage is the rare team dangerous in progression and penetration, ranking fifth in threat created from the middle third and final third. Width wise, however, the team shows a clear preference for the left side where both Matsukubo and Sanchez operate. Going through the league thus far, the Courage are one of the first teams to really pop in the “cutback zones”, inside the penalty area, but not quite into the six yard box. That’s a good place to be.
Kansas City Current
The Kansas City current have clawed their way to sixth after starting with three points from their first four matches. The Current sit third in total expected threat generated at the midseason mark.
The KC Current are led by fullback Isabel Rodriguez, who ranks second in the league in total xT with 1.99 generated from 713 actions. She is followed by Michelle Cooper (1.18), Debinha (1.17), Croix Bethune (1.12), and Ally Sentnor (0.74). Four of Kansas City’s top five players have generated over 1.0 xT, highlighting their attacking depth. Importantly, this production is not concentrated in a single role or zone. The Current’s top five includes a fullback, midfielders, and a forward, indicating a multi-line structure in which threat is generated from both deep buildup and advanced attacking positions.
Rodrigez, a fullback does most of the ball progression rather than centre backs like Chicago. Debinha creates uthrough passing and carries frequently for a striker, with Bethune an adept creator as well. Cooper is able to drive into the box, putting the ball into dangerous areas. The Current should look to be more dangerous in the later half of the season, with Debinha limited to only six matches in the first half of the season.
The Current rank seventh in threat created in the final third, preferring to use the middle third for most of the threat creation. This comes as two of KC’s top five are midfielders, Debhina, Bethune, complemented by the deep lying forward Ally Sentnor. Sentnor has since been shifted to Los Angeles, and it will be interesting to see how the Current change in the back half of the season. The Current have a slight preference for the left side of the pitch, but are using the right attacking path more effectively, ranking in the top half of almost all zones there.
Gotham FC
Gotham is an interesting case. Despite ranking among the league's top five teams in Expected Threat, their heat map is dominated by relatively muted shades of blue. Gotham tends to favor the left side of the pitch, but they generate a greater share of their threat from advanced areas — ranking fourth in threat generated from the middle third.
This pattern aligns with Gotham's player distribution. Winger Jayden Shaw (1.13) leads the team with 1.13 xT, followed closely by Midge Purce (0.97) and midfielder Rose Lavelle (0.95). Guro Reiten, despite being played out of position at left back and having only played six matches, ranks fourth at 0.83. Rookie winger Jordynn Dudley has made an immediate impact generating 0.75 xT, rounding out Gotham’s top five. What makes Gotham particularly unique is that while none of their top five contributors rank among the league's top 15 individual xT creators, as a team they rank top five overall in threat created. Multiple players have generated more than 0.8 xT, allowing the team to spread responsibility for chance creation across the squad.
Going with their well balanced individual xT identity, Gotham doesn’t have particular areas of the pitch they generate from more often, supporting the well balanced attack claim. Similarly, although the team's top five contributors account for just over half of its total xT, no individual player is responsible for an outsized share. The team's leading contributor generates less than 15% of its total xT, while the top three account for less than 40%. Gotham’s lack of elite individual xT creators is offset by exceptional distribution of threat, making them one of the league’s most resilient attacking teams.
While not the most productive attacker, fullback Lily Reale has departed Gotham for Boston and leaves a hole that needs to be filled.
Washington Spirit
The Washington Spirit presents a stark contrast to most teams mentioned earlier. The Spirit are a team that ranks highly on the table at fourth, but low in Expected Threat created at fourteenth having only created 7.88 xT.
However, the heat map is noticeably less intense across the pitch, reflecting the fact that they've generated the second least xT in the league. The Spirit ranked fifteenth in the defensive third, fourteenth in the middle third and eleventh in the final third. This is a team built on being excellent defensively.
The Spirit’s threat creation primarily relies on the trio of Leicy Santos (1.06), Trinity Rodman (0.89), and Rosemonde Kouassi (0.81) who have generated just under 40% of Washington Spirit’s total xT. Washington’s top five is rounded out by the center back duo Tara Rudd and Esme Morgan with 0.72 and 0.71 respectively. The presence of two center backs among the team's top five xT contributors indicates a healthy ball progression machine, feeding the creators ahead of them consistently.
Portland Thorns
Portland ranks eighth in xT at 8.97 generated. Their heat map shows a clear concentration of threat originating from the left side of the field, which suggests that Portland’s attacking threat comes through their wingers, full backs or midfielders drifting over to those spaces. Portland’s attack is led by Olivia Moultrie, who generated 1.6 xT, which is a little over 20% of the team’s total threat creation and ranks fifth in the league overall. Moultrie is followed by Jessie Fleming at 0.99 xT created, Sophia Wilson (0.82), Pietra Tordin (0.76) and Marie Müller (0.64).
Portland is a defensive half creating team, ranking third in threat created from the defensive third and middle third, springing runners into depth from deep. While the Thorns use the left to create more threat, their right hand side is more dangerous when compared against the rest of the league.
Portland's threat creation follows a deliberate pipeline: Moultrie and Fleming operate as creators consistently threading direct passing lanes to Sophia Smith in the box or out to Tordin and Müller on the wings.
Utah Royals
The Utah Royals have had an impressive season thus far sitting second in the standings and fourth in Expected Threat. They have won seven games so far, already improving upon their lackluster 2025 season, where they only won six. While midseason form can fluctuate, their underlying numbers indicate a strong foundation for continued success.
Utah’s attacking profile is notably balanced across zones, using both the left and right wing and the top edge of the box quite well. However, their overall xT is heavily influenced by two standout contributors: Cloe Lacasse (1.42) and Janni Thomsen (1.36), both of whom rank inside the league’s top 15 for individual xT. Laccase and Thomsen’s high xT says a lot about their individual quality, but points to a degree of concentration in Utah’s chance creation. Nuria Rabano (0.88) has been another key contributor, but there’s a steep drop in threat created after Rabano; Kate Del Fava and Cece Delzer round out the top five, but only contributing 0.61 and 0.53 respectively.
While the reliance on Lacasee, Thomsen, and Rabano has not limited their success so far, it does suggest that Utah’s attacking threat is more vulnerable to absences from their top creators than some of the league’s more distributed teams. Unfortunately, Janni Thomsen has left Utah for the Michelle Kang owned London City on an undisclosed fee, leaving Utah with a top 15 in Expected Threat sized hole. Thomsen has been an underrated cog in the Utah attack, and was one of the few bright spots in a poor 2025 for the Royals.
Utah however makes up for it with a well balanced attack across all ends of the pitch. Utah ranks first in threat generated in the defensive third, and sixth in the middle and final thirds. The Royals use both sides of the pitch equally as well, with 41% of threat generated from the right, 40% of threat generated from the left.
San Diego Wave
Now finally, we're at the league leaders in Expected Threat and in the standings San Diego. The stats hating stalwart Kenza Dali leads the league at 2.42 followed by the incredible Dudinha (1.57). Dudinha’s season ending injury is a big blow at 15% of the Wave’s total output. Dudinha is not only the Waves’ second largest contributor in Expected Threat, but ranks fifth overall in the league. Kennedy Wesley (0.90), Ludmila (0.87), Mimi Van Zanten (0.86), have all been strong contributors to San Diego’s league leading threat.
San Diego is dangerous from all sides. Threat is well balanced from both the right and left, at 43% and 44% respectively. The Wave are remarkably effective moving the ball through the thirds, and from the final third into the penalty area, which well folks, is why they are not only top of the table, but #1 in Expected Threat.
A League Wide View
We’ve made it to the end! To recap, what stands out is how teams at the top (San Diego, Utah, KC) create danger from multiple zones, while struggling teams rely too heavily on one approach or one player.
As with any model based analysis, there are limitations. This version of xT is derived from 2025 league-wide passing and shooting patterns and applied to 2026 data, meaning it does not fully capture tactical evolution across seasons. The underlying logistic regression xG component may also underrepresent more nuanced shot contexts, while the event-based nature of xT excludes factors such as defensive pressure, body orientation, and goalkeeper positioning. Most importantly, the relatively small sample size (11–13 matches at midseason mark) hides variance unique to the 2026 season that is then regressed toward 2025 league averages.
Finally, a table of the top 15 players in overall Expected Threat is included below for reference.