2015 MLS Cup Playoffs Projections

These are the simulated probabilities of each MLS playoff team reaching subsequent rounds of the tournament. Game-by-game probabilities were derived from a bivariate Poisson model, allowing us to simulate goal scoring, an essential ingredient for emulating soccer's two-legged system. 

Updated Monday, 11/30/15.

Team Cup Change
CLB 0.646 0.247
POR 0.354 0.106
FCD 0.000 -0.132
NYRB 0.000 -0.221

"Change" is since leg 2 of the Conference Championship

Simulation is based on 50,000 runs, with probabilities derived from both Actual and Expected Goals.