Patrick Nyarko, MLS Contracts And Playing The Game

By Harrison Crow (@harrison_crow)

Two days ago, the Chicago Fire signed Patrick Nyarko to a contract extension. Which is a good thing for him. Making money is kind of important at the professional level.  My problem isn't really with him earning another contract. As I mentioned on twitter yesterday, I'm all for the players being paid a more appropriate wage.

My issue here is this maneuver personifies the continued mismanagement of the salary cap by Chicago's front office. And, yes, admittedly, I'm jumping the gun here. I have no inside knowledge of the contract details. I'm making a general assumptions in this situation. However, these assumptions are based upon the mechanisms with MLS and thus I feel justified in making them.

Sadly, the last few seasons Nyarko's value has steadily declined. This is partially due to injuries and partially due to inconsistent playing time. However by our context the ultimate reason I make that claim is that he's not producing the quantity or quality of shots needed by a player demanding his salary.

I think it's easy to justify a $250,000+ salary for an attacking player that produced about half an expected goal per 90 minutes or roughly over 10 total expected goals per 2500 minutes. Those players are the definition of a teams core attacking strength and there was only 39 total players that produced those types of numbers in MLS this past season. The problem is that Nyarko doesn't really compare to any of them in any historical sense and my suspicions is that he isn't likely to ever be the type of player that could.

This line of thinking didn't come about because I think Nyarko was lucky during his good seasons. Rather he's is a 29 year old with a history of leg related injuries. If age and injuries weren't enough of a problem, it's added to his issue of inconsistent ability creating high leverage or a high amount of shots. This makes it difficult to support an extension that isn't team friendly (i.e. contract reducing his pay/salary cap hit).

MLS player acquisition methods are generally slanted towards keeping young players cost controlled as they grow into first team position. This is a generality, of course, as there always is with this sort of thing, there are some exceptions to the rule. The system as its designed is to increase players pay the longer they are in the league with some notable devices (specifically re-entry draft) in place to control for situations where certain players can stay in the league while teams aren't paying a ridiculous price above their value.

This is the system and rules that are in place (probably) for the short term. While There could be some changes in January this is how it works now. And It's a game, and one that front office types seem to pick and choose what parts that they like to play.

But as every father has said to their child: "if you're going to play the game, play it right".

While Nyarko's contract isn't really a blatantly bad move, there does remain a chance that he has a good season worth the value they paid, the point was there were (likely) better options on the table. Playing the game means that you work those options. Some of those options can provide you similarly styled players that have value in the same vein as Nyarko. Here are just a few as an example Shea Salinas, Justin Mapp and Boniek Garcia.

Here is the real twist to these three; they all make less than Nyarko, have greater goal creation numbers and, possibly, could all be had this off-season. The end goal being here that a move for any one of these players would both improve the club AND create cap space.

Shea Salinas
2470 Minutes, 10.27 Total xGoals
Salary: $133,333

Salinas is on his second tour of duty with San Jose. He seems a perpetually undervalued asset within MLS is personally one of my favorite wide players in the league. His value is created by the a high ratio of quantity-AND-quality of attempts that he provides for his teammates while not risking turnovers. For the season Salinas only average 4.2 inaccurate passes and only 1.6 dispossessions a match good, both above average ratios for wide midfielders. He's only 28 and has a few years still left in him. Chicago could've used its resources to acquire him, give him a pay increase and still be under what they're giving Nyarko this season.

Justin Mapp
1726 Minutes, 6.53 Total xGoals
Salary: $174,750

Mapp is always on these types of lists and for a lot of good reasons. However, the primary concern is his health and lack of minutes that he contributes on the pitch. You don't add value to a team if you can't make it to the pitch. That being said he's been good for 1,500 minutes a season and with how he's created goal the last few years those minutes are as good or better than what you'd get out of 2,000 minutes of Nyarko. It's also, again, less than what you'd pay Nyarko. Any left over money could be paid to keeping Grant Ward or even in finding another young unproven winger with physical gifts.

Boniek Garcia
2206 Minutes, 7.52 Total xGoals
Salary: $258,742

Yes, he's a designated player. However, that has more to do with the transfer fee that was paid to Olimpia than his salary. The fee and combined with his salary simply pushed him into DP territory. Despite that fact Garcia still makes less than Nyarko and he has been a staple of the Honduras national team. If he was traded the DP tag would fall away.

It's not just whether or not he might be available, Houston has a new GM, and very soon a new coach too. in town and I think everyone is don't think it's far fetched to think he could be had for a reasonable price. The question is at what point does acquiring him make it a redundant move in replacing Nyarko?

Garcia has been inconsistent during his time in MLS, much like Nyarko, having peeks and valleys over the course of a season. Despite that inconsistency he's shown a greater heights and lesser valleys than Nyarko which ease my concerns and makes me feel as though he could still be a core attacking piece (since we would be paying him that type of money) on a playoff team.

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Outside of the proven veteran market there are lesser bench players that potential could take a step forward into the starting role with the right opportunity. Players such as Tristan Bowen, Cordell Cato, Pedro Ribeiro, Toni Cascio possibly even Kalif Alhassan all come to mind. This doesn't include the possibility of raking Leandro Barrera from the re-entry draft coals as a result of not being selected in the dispersal draft yesterday.

Again, my problem isn't with the Fire rewarding loyalty or attempting to retain a guy they "feel good" about. It's simply that Chicago continues playing the game wrong. DC United made a very strong statement when they rebuilt their roster last year through the re-entry draft, super draft and sensible trades. While I think they sailed mostly on luck this year that doesn't negate the principles and methods applied to restock talent within the organization.

I'm happy for Nyarko and I hope he surpasses the 2,000 minute mark and regains his 2013 form. Though I'm still not sure he's worth the cap hit. Which in turn makes me sad for the Fire supporters.

A Friendly Preview: Republic of Ireland hosts United States Men's National Team

REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

GOALKEEPERS (5): David Forde (Millwall), Shay Given (Aston Villa), Keiren Westwood - (Sheffield Wednesday) Darren Randolph - (Birmingham City) Rob Elliot (Newcastle United)

DEFENDERS (12): Richard Keogh (Derby County), Marc Wilson (Stoke City) Seamus Coleman (Everton), John O’Shea (Sunderland),  Alex Pearce (Reading), Brian Lenihan   (Hull City), Stephen Kelly (Reading), Paul McShane (Hull City), Damien Delaney (Crystal Palace) Shane Duffy (Blackburn Rovers) Stephen Ward (Burnley), Ciaran Clark (Aston Villa)

MIDFIELDERS (11):James McCarthy (Everton) Jeff Hendrick (Derby County), Glenn Whelan (Stoke City), Darron Gibson (Everton), Paul Green (Rotherham United), Aiden McGeady (Everton), Anthony Pilkington (Cardiff City), James McClean (Wigan Athletic), Robbie Brady (Hull City), Stephen Quinn (Hull City), David Meyler (Hull City)

FORWARDS (5): Shane Long (Southampton), Daryl Murphy (Ipswich Town), Jon Walters (Stoke City), Kevin Doyle (Crystal Palace), Anthony Stokes (Celtic)

UNITED STATES

GOALKEEPERS (4): Brad Guzan (Aston Villa), Bill Hamid (D.C. United), Sean Johnson (Chicago Fire), Nick Rimando (Real Salt Lake)

DEFENDERS (6):  Matt Besler (Sporting Kansas City), John Brooks (Hertha Berlin), Geoff Cameron (Stoke City), Timmy Chandler (Eintracht Frankfurt), Greg Garza (Club Tijuana), Fabian Johnson (Borussia Mönchengladbach)

MIDFIELDERS (5): Kyle Beckerman (Real Salt Lake), Alejandro Bedoya (Nantes), Mix Diskerud (Rosenborg), Julian Green (Hamburg), Alfredo Morales (Ingolstadt)

FORWARDS (6): Jozy Altidore (Sunderland), Miguel Ibarra (Minnesota United FC), Jordan Morris (Stanford), Rubio Rubin (Utrecht), Bobby Wood (1860 Munich), Chris Wondolowski (San Jose Earthquakes)

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By Harrison Crow (@harrison_crow)

The US roster is a little thin with the four MLS'ers (DeMarcus Beasley, DeAndre Yedlin, Jermaine Jones and Lee Nguyen) returning back to the states (what's up with Beasley going, too?). It's to be expected with the playoffs and MLS Cup on the line. This is also only a friendly, and while you want to remain competitive, it's about giving new opportunities to players that haven't previously had the chance. After all, this is the Republic of Ireland, right? #EasyWin

Well, Okay, let's slow down there a second.

First, the Republic of Ireland isn't necessarily the same Republic of Ireland they were two years ago... or even one year ago. They were once thought to be a disappointment to the UEFA region, losing matches to clubs at home they shouldn't and being blown out against some very good teams. Four games into their 2016 EURO qualification they sit in second place with 7 points, which includes a tie against Germany. Their first loss of the tournament came against Scotland on the road in a brutal affair last week.

Second, on the heels of the fact they haven't qualified for the World Cup since 2002, last year Martin O'Neil and Roy Keane were hired to revitalize the dilapidated Irish squad. They hope to return the country back to competing for European and World tournaments. Ireland is now more organized and better run than it was under both Brian Kerr and Giovanni Trapattoni.

O'Neil and Keane have seen Ireland rise in the world standings in Euro Qualifying, which begs the question - is this team actually improving?

The high degree of variance is because ELO is adjusted after every match, making rankings especially volatile. One year ago, in a match against Poland, ELORatings.net had them at 36th in the world, which is exactly where they now find themselves following that loss to Scotland.

The Power Rank has a more bullish approach about where they are, ranking them 52nd in their World Football Rankings. Lastly, Nate Silver's metric, the Soccer Power Index, is somewhere between the two at 43rd (to get the full run down on the latest SPI I had to pull them from ESPN Deportes, which was a pain and why I'm not linking it). 

Following a solid run of form in a huge tournament, it's important that we take it all with a grain of salt. Teams in Ireland's situation don't just take miraculous leaps forward. I think they're a solid European C team that the US should probably beat.

Over the past two years, Ireland has been inclined to "open it up a bit", averaging 2.4 goals per home match over nine games. One of those is the huge blowout win against Gibraltar in a Euro 2016 qualifier, but even removing that outlier shows a 1.8 goals per home match average, which further shows they're able score at home.

This isn't surprising, considering data shows home-field advantage is bigger in soccer than most other sports. But the real concern isn't the attack, it's their defense, which has surrendered an atrocious 20 goals in nine matches. That isn't great. And if we're tossing out that Gibraltar game, that would make 20 goals in 8 matches, which looks even worse.

They'll be going against a US team that has managed to find ways to score 20 road goals in the past two years. Across 21 road matches, they've given away just 15 opposing goals. I'm not sure how that comes across in your mind, but it should impress you. Yes, they're averaging less than a goal a game on the road. But ON THE ROAD they're holding their opponents to less than a goal a match. That's fantastic, and while you need at least one goal for three points, surrendering no goals guarantees you at least one point.

Overall, this is a team that has found a way to score and create dangerous attacks through various methods in the run of play. They're not dependent on getting into range for set pieces.

Our metrics had the U.S. good for 1.3 Expected Goals through five matches played during the World Cup. That was good for ranking 10th overall in xGoals. They may not be genuinely elite, but there is something there that says they're a good team that can cause problems for other good teams. Yes, this isn't the USA's best squad, and yes, the US doesn't have all the pieces that it had mid-summer. But neither does Ireland. The USA isn't the only country that is using friendlies to bring a little new blood into the roster.

The US has a very good chance at winning this match. But the Irish have some potent attackers that have a history of scoring goals at home. Similarly, the US defense was the worst in expected goals against during the World Cup, and their survival was largely made possible by the epic saves and quick reactions of Tim Howard.

So, the question of who wins today really breaks down to this; whether the Irish offense can take it to the USA's defense.

I believe.

Dallas is on the clock, but who do they pick?

Today in the Chivas dispersal draft lottery, which, let's face it, is all kinds of depressing, FC Dallas took home the top allocated selection in the draft that is to take place next week. Now that the order has finally be established the question now becomes what exactly does Dallas with their selection?

As I see it there are two standing options:

First, they can select whomever they feel has the greatest trade value then simply try to leverage their run of luck into something a bit more tangible (note: the pick itself is not free to be traded, rather only the product of the pick). This seems more than possible as the pickings from Chivas' roster are a little slim.

There will be some dollar value associated with the pick and the goal of Luiz Muzzi, Dan Hunt, Brent Erwin and Oscar Pareja is to cumulatively come to an agreement of who they believe has that greatest value.

The follow-up question is whether they in turn trade that value for allocation monies or, maybe, and in my mind more probable, another player that fits more of the team mold that Oscar Pareja is trying to build.

Or, Secondly/alternatively, they can pick a player that best matches the needs of the club and they utilize the pick to build depth, either by way of finding some mash-up of quality and financial cost. Which despite the overall team results, there are players of value on the Chivas roster and, as pointed out by Matt Doyle, there are even a few that could make an impact on some MLS roster this coming season.

While there are many different points of view on the subject of value, I'm approaching this from the angle of creating scoring chances and goals. This is something that is a bit of a tough subject to approach when speaking to all players because it doesn't really cover the full gambit of details that are needed to make accurate assertions.

But, when you are trying to find value and, specifically, trying to identify places of need it helps to look at certain details that are maybe under served by the present roster. I'm not trying to use a metric to identify who is the best or claim someone is better than anyone else. This is just an exercise in possibly feeling holes in the Dallas roster.

We all know the first name on any ones lips to leave is Dan Kennedy but let's skip him right now, and place him on hold for another time. Also, since we have no clue what's going on with Erick Torres let's pass on him too. With all the cavets now out of the way I present to you my three selections that are, admittedly a little out of the box.

First things first. Let's talk defense and let's talk... Jhon Kennedy Hurtado. Yep, that guy.

Again, I'm not trying to say that he's better than anyone else. But I find him intriguing on a few different levels. First, he has the highest expected goals (expected goals + expected assists) per 90 minutes played for defenders for either Chivas USA or FC Dallas. He also finished in the top-30 for aerial duels won which leads to his ability to how he's creating shots, off set pieces.

Squawka doesn't think a lot of Hurtado's defensive abilities and rates him pretty middle of the road. Which I think is a fair assessment. He's probably a back-up on a very good team. The thing is that kind of is exactly what Dallas needs right now. Sure, they just kept Seattle to one goal over a two legged series. But that's not a accurate portrayal of performance and it doesn't speak to the lack of depth and experience with central defenders.

If Dallas front office feels that their time with George John is up, and I wouldn't be surprised for him to not be in Dallas at the start of the season, then Hurtado makes a lot of sense as depth and becomes extremely useful as a late sub on set pieces.

Next up, Martin Rivero.

Okay, so, I'm probably not the only person that's going to connect the dots from Rivero tand his time with the Rapids to Oscar Pareja and his new gig with Dallas. Now, I have no idea if the two even liked each other. It's possible, maybe even probable, that they didn't. Though it's possible their the best of friends. I really don't know the whole story and I doubt few really do. There is the thing about Rivero missing a sizable amount of time in 2013 due to a combination of injury and... well, "coaches decision". Anyways, speculate away. What do I care?

What I do know about Rivero is that he's still has time to grow professionally. Only 24 and just two years removed from posting a +10 total expected goals season, Rivero is a starting caliber talent that some how ended up buried on one of the leagues worst teams.

He's also only making a slight bump above league minimum according to the Players Union and considering the issues of the depth at the central midfield it may behoove Dallas to find a cheap understudy of sorts for Mauro Diaz. Maybe.

I was really impressed with him in Colorado, when he saw time on the pitch, and I would enjoy seeing him find himself once more within MLS. 2015 Dark horse for Comeback Player of the Year. You heard it hear first.

Last is Leandro Barrera.

Berrera a 23 year old from Argentina produced 5+ TxG this season from 36 shots scattered across a rough 2,000 minutes. Not exactly blow out material from a young forward paired with one of the leagues hottest young talents. However, his shot distance (average of 25 meters) coupled with his xAssists (3.43, sadly leading Chivas) could conjure the thought that his role was more of supplier for his Mexican strike partner.

The long shots were probably more of a tactical imprint in an attempt to "prove" to defenders/wandering midfielders that they needed to mark him outside of the 18 or he'd be inclined to pop off a shot or two. This in a vain attempt to take at least some focus away from Torres.

Much like Rivero above, he's making peanuts. But adjusting for his positional cost he's really making even less than fellow countryman. Barrera is a bargain and one that has talent and could be a change of pace up top to that of Blas Perez or any of the giant sized lumbermen that sit up top. His small stature and quickness to slip around the box could make him an interesting candidate to act as depth for Castillo out wide or to slip back into the middle for Diaz.

Barrera is a super deal and while most people would place him third or even fourth on the Chivas USA forward depth chart Caleb Calvert has more risk and is more of an investment while Ryan Finley is basically the second coming of Eddie Johnson. Do Hoop fans deserve to endure another EJ experience? I think not.

There are a lot of things to consider over the next week as Dallas weights it's options. It should be interesting to see how this goes down.

But, What About Dallas?

By Harrison Crow (@harrison_crow)

Tonight is the last of the conference semi-final matches with Dallas pitted against the Sounders in the Emerald City. It's not fair to The Hoops that many MLS supporters and pundits a like getting ahead of themselves with the assumed build for the conference finals in spotlight match up of LA versus Seattle III: the re-rematch. 

It obviously lends itself for--yet another--opportunity to compare Landon Donovan and Clint Dempsey. Which I know everyone loves to talk about. I'm even guilty of doing this myself, e-mailing friend of the site Sean Steffen about another 'LA-Seattle' like podcast (hopefully with much, much, better audio).

But that isn't to say that the bet isn't a reasonable gamble. Right now, our prediction has the Rave Green at a 69% favorite to take it over FC Dallas. It should highlight the fact that home field advantage push is a big deal. The only team to not come away with a positive position from the first leg of the playoffs was the Columbus Crew.  Outside of that every home team has either earned a draw or a win, including the play-in round.

That's not to say that it becomes a sure fire thing. Dallas has a lot of very good players that could make things relatively uncomfortable for their hosts. Blas Perez (12.32), Fabian Castilo (11.79) and rookie-of-the-year candidate Tesho Akindele (9.57) all combined for roughly 77% of Dallas' xGoals on the season. That doesn't include the likes of set piece specialist Michel (8.65) returning wunderkind Mauro Diaz (4.76) or the often forgotten designated player David Texeira (3.28). They have attacking weapons in an arsenal that is quick yet rugged.

A defense that is arguably as good as Seattle standing 1.37 expected goals against to the Sounders 1.20 that is built upon the rock (and team Captain) known as Matt Hedge. The crux of their issues, by and large, has been the goal keeping. While most would probably claim that it's been average it's what has ultimately been the difference between them and launching into the upper echelon of Major League Soccer.

Their defense has been, admittedly, spotty but according to our goal keeping metrics Raul Fernandez and Chris Seitz have performed below average. The two keepers combine for a -2 expected goals worse than what the average keeper might expect to stop. This considering the shots taken against them that were on target. Sometimes you can kind of point to the defense as being the reason for some of those goals being scored (i.e. Dan Kennedy, -11 goals worse than expected with an average shot leverage of almost .11) because if you keep giving attackers chances it's a case of when not if they start putting the goals away. However, this is not really the case as the defense as a whole allowed an average shot leverage of .0964 being launched their way. Which B-T-Dub is good for 4th best in MLS trailing (in order) the Whitecaps, Sounders and Galaxy.

Raul Ferenandez already had a big game in which he snubbed Obafemi Martins not once, but twice. The question for me is whether or not he can do it once more time. I can't imagine another scenario where the Sounders get 8 shots on goal and, considering their location, only score once. It's a dangerous game surrendering those types of looks to Dempsey and company expecting to come out on top.

However, with Seattle only picking up the one road goal, Dallas could conceivable just prepare to leave the game wide open with the attempt to run-and-gun with the Sounders. They have a fluid attack with crazy pace that has caused problems for the Rave Green this season. It's not as if Zach Scott or Leo Gonzalez are that quick and it helps explain why Seattle leads the league in attacks against (25%) their left flank.

Regardless of who comes out in front at the end of full time we can be certain that there will be goals. And considering the personnel on the pitch we can presume that there will be some fun and exciting moments too. Which, end the end, makes us all winners.

Analytics And Front Office Hirings

By Harrison Crow (@harrison_crow)

Yesterday, MLSsoccer.com ran a story about new Houston Dynamo General Manger Matt Jordan and his intent on building a so called ‘attacking and very diverse group’ next season. Darrell Lovell, the writer of the article, mentioned Jordan’s task implimentation would come by the way of introducing data analytics in the effort to shape the future of the roster.

Now, first off, none of Jordan’s actual comments speak to his this newfangled approach and while it’s exciting in theory the actual implementation and use of analytics can actually take years to fully implement in regards to the data infrastructure that would be needed to influence decision making.

I’m not saying that Jordan isn’t intending to bring analytics to Texas Street rather I’m pointing out that it’s purely a positional expectation that has been placed upon him and unlike the hiring of Andrew Opatkiewicz, Jordan has no past experience or body of evidence that we can point to as having used data to support his decisions.

Jordan’s education in marketing does lend some credence to the idea that he has some understanding of the advanced disciplines that would be required to make this work. But the reality is for analytics to work and be effectual, he’s going to need a department that has invested time and effort in not just producing data sets but time identifying and outlining what is meaningful, useful and productive information that is contextualized in the effort to add value to Jordan’s decision making.

Throwing the word analytics around is flashy, hip and cool. But teams such as the Sounders, Sporting, Red Bulls and Quakes have all invested money in different aspects and relations of analytics with varied results and time lines that limited their effectiveness. Which in turn have seen very smart (*cough* Rui Xu *cough*) individuals to leave their posts far too early.

The mentality behind people in front office positions is that they want to see results or an immediate return on investment. The problem is that there isn’t an exact formula to where you can say: “do this” and then “do that”—and presto! You’re going to have a good team or even a team that is ready to win the Supporters’ Shield.

Honestly, the bigger highering within MLS in this very short off-season—disregarding Opatkiewicz election in USL Pro—was the lesser trumpeted Pádraig Smith by the Colorado Rapids. Who comes to MLS by way of UEAF and then before that Ireland. A former director of finance he has actual experience of dealing/applying financial fair play rules and the constraints that come as a product of that in player acquisition.

Colorado announced that Smith’s position within the team will be on the technical staff as Sporting Director. The article on MLSsoccer further explored this role stating “With the Rapids, Smith will focus on data analytics and performance analysis as they pertain to player acquisitions and scouting from a team performance, player and opposition perspective. He will also oversee strategic planning and management of the soccer operations budget, salary cap and ensure that the club is in compliance with all player collective bargaining agreements and FIFA regulations.”

This isn’t necessarily any deep seeded proof. But just looking at other sports hiring’s such as in the NBA or in Major League Baseball with backgrounds that preclude much if any top-level experience but include computer and political science major, applied economics and general outside the box minded individuals has shown reasonable and positive results. You can point to such examples as Jon Daniels, Theo Epstein, Daryl Morey and *Sam Presti. All have strong track records and outside of Presti, have no pro or top division college experience within the sport.  

*Presti did play D-III ball, but his role was limited and there isn’t much real experience that is point back to that.

Comparing Smith to Jordan is much like comparing apples to oranges (Dynamo reference!) in that their two unique situations with different things in which they are accountable for and working within different constructs, seeking different solutions.

It’s fair to say that ownership and/or whomever are making hiring determinations and placing the roles and expectations on these positions within the front office are starting to place a premium on the involvement of data driven analysis within the decisions making paradigm. Which is great, however it’s by no means indicative of teams becoming smarter in game and roster evaluation or identifying artifices within the construct of the current CBA and player acquisition mechanisms.

All this really means is that teams are starting to seek out individuals that in their determination can find these loopholes and exploit them while they exist. A generation of capologists that has seemingly invaded other from most  So, maybe, Houston and Colorado are two teams that we should watch this year as they restructure their roster through what we can only speculate as potential bold moves in an attempt to find their way back to the MLS playoffs next season.

MLS Playoffs: Quarterfinals Leg 2 Probabilities

The series win probabilities have been posted on our projections page now, but it's worth explaining where they come from. The first thing to remember is that away goals are now the first tie-breaker after each home-and-home series, followed by the usual Extra Time, Coin Flips, and Most Chest Hair tie-breakers if needed. That plays a role in the probabilities!

NE: 97.0%

Playing at home with a 4 - 2 lead, New England is in the best position of any team. New England just needs to lose by no more than one goal. In fact, even if the Revs lose by two, they would win most plausible tie-breakers as Columbus would have to score at least four goals. 

NYRB: 88.5%

According to our model, New York is in the next-best position due to two primary factors. D.C. United has turned in very unimpressive xGoals tallies this season, and, of course, the Red Bulls hold a two-goal advantage.

SEA: 68.5%, LA: 64.5%

Though both top seeds out West tied on the road, Seattle gets a probabilistic edge over LA in that Seattle scored a goal in Frisco, while the Galaxy failed to score in Rio Tinto. Seattle would advance with a 0 - 0 draw, and play extra time with a 1 - 1 draw in regulation. But if LA draws, it must be a 0 - 0 draw to even get a chance to win in extra time or penalties.

27 Goals

By Harrison Crow (@harrison_crow)

We have a cool new little toy! You may have missed it, but a few weeks ago Matthias unveiled  historic expected goals. We use "historic" in a limited sense here - it only goes back to 2011 - but this is a big deal for multiple reasons.

The most applicable of those reasons right now is the ability to compare Chris Wondolowski's 2012 season to Bradley Wright-Phillips' in 2014. Unfortunately, since we don't have shot locations or even  most specifics for the league during prior to 2011, we are unable to compare these two seasons to Roy Lassiter's 27 goals back in 1996, so this post will be about comparing the two record-setting seasons we have data for.

Name	G	xG	G-xG	Sht	Avg Dist	Avail	UnAst Pct	Reb Pct	KeyP	Asst	xAsst	Cross Pct	Through Pct	xG + xA
Wondolowski	27	21.71	5.29	127	16.9	6.07	0.24	0.06	38	5	4.16	0.22	0.02	25.87
Wright-Phillips	27	22.85	4.15	109	14.9	6.24	0.17	0.03	19	1	2.35	0.28	0.15	25.20

While obviously similar, there are subtle but key differences. You can see that BWP earned more xGoals than Wondo, but Wondo was more involved in incorporating his teammates in the attack with almost twice as many xAssists than Wright-Phillips.

It is also interesting that Wondo had seven percent more Unassisted Shots and three percent more shots (twice as much) via rebounds. There could be a few explanations for this, but two seem to most fit what we already know - 1) that Wondo is a poacher, and makes the most of his opportunities, and 2) that much of Wright-Phillips' success can be attributed to playing alongside Thierry Henry.

Feeding into the latter theory, it is notable that BWP's shots came from a full two yards closer to the goal. Now there is a lot of inference that Henry created most of those shots either by his elite play making skills or by way of creating space. Our dear friend Matthias actually put out a friendly little stat about three weeks ago on this subject.

26 of @ThierryHenry's 72 key passes have been to @TheRealBWP. Next most is 10 to Lloyd Sam #funfact #MLS #NYRB @AnalysisEvolved

— Matthias Kullowatz (@MattyAnselmo) October 10, 2014

As of that tweet, 26 shots created by Henry accounted for 25.7% of the total shots taken by Bradley Wright-Phillips. It makes sense that while he did a lot to help Bradley become the prolific goal scorer that, he's not the only reason. No goal is a better example of BWP's ability to create his own shots than the goal that tied the record. Phillips has the ability to do things with the ball at his feet that Wondo does not. That control has lead to more opportunities in higher leverage situations.

One last point; it's interesting that neither lead the league in Goals Minus Expected Goals (G-xG). In the final table neither finished in the top-3, suggesting there was a bit of luck on their side, which is almost always the case when a goal (or 27 of them) is scored.

My point here is just to evaluate how both individuals created their total expected goals in the season in which they scored 27 for their teams. It's not necessarily about one being better than the other. Both performed great feats that should be acknowledged, and both did it in different and exciting ways.

I'm just grateful that we have a bit more information that allows us to give context, and lets us to understand more than what have in the past. That we can compare these two accomplishments and see how they are different using actual data - and not only our shoddy memories - is both an interesting and fun exercise.

The MVP Debate: Filtering Expected Goals vs. Game Winning Goals

by Harrison Crow (@Harrison_Crow)

Last year, if you even knew we existed then, you may have heard us mentioning Lee Nguyen for his quantitative key pass numbers. He produced a lot of key passes (51 total, 14th in MLS) and put himself on the map for people like me to watch for this season.

Well, as you know, this season he's been more than just an above average central creator for a good team. He's been someone that has gained dark horse consideration for the MVP as the MLS playoffs begin.

A lot of the conversation surrounding Nguyen centers on the fact that he has most "Game Winning Goals" in MLS with 8. Meaning he's directly responsible for a total of 24 additional points for his team, the New England Revolution. Well... okay, sure. To some degree he Nguyen has been very much influential to adding those "additional" points.

My problem with attributing those points solely to Nguyen is that it takes away from the rest of his mates who also had their hand in those matches. Winning by a single goal often involves more than  an outlier event. It's a transcendent performance that comes by more than a single event and a singular player but by a battle conducted by all 11 players against a fellow 11 players.

Sure, it's often a single players performance or instance that can turn the tide of a battle and help his team gain points. But if we all believe this is the case then we are only accounting for single goal states in our analysis? We should be taking into account both negative one AND even game states for goals.

Additionally, we all understand the propensity goals have to be flukey at times. We all have seen a team perform the best and be handed a draw or even a loss despite everything. Because of that it's best to look at shots and the leverage of which we could reasonably expect a goal to be scored in that situation. That's the whole premise behind expected goals.

Now, I've talked before about how I don't necessarily agree with the denotation of "game winning goal". I believe it conveys the wrong impression behind the intention and event. The stat is only awarded to players whose teams win by a single goal and given to player who scores that final goal that ends up being the difference. If a goal is scored in the fourth minute it's the same as scoring it in the 90th minute. Obviously that goal still was the determining factor in the match. But calling it a game winning goal implies a sense of heroic nature to the event.

Most of the time if I'm talking about a game winning events my mind goes to closing minutes or moments just before the games end. It's those closing seconds that we remember the most because it seems to have the most impact. Michael Jordan with the game winning shot, John Elway with the game winning drives and Roger Clemens big last moments.

If we want to strive to really account for these late match events and properly put them into context than what we should do is develop a filter for what events to take into account and when. This will give us a method of evaluating true difference makers at the end of matches. Looking at the things mentioned above, I've implied the need to account for three specific details: shots and their placement, the current score line of the event and time the event took place.

Using those three determining factors I put together a small list of total expected goal contributors with shots and their leverage occurring from the 80th min to the last. One specific item of note is that the data set includes penalty kicks because... well, I couldn't decide whether or not to include them.

1   Clint Dempsey   2.50
2   Sebastien Le Toux   2.26
3   Mike Magee  1.79
4   Fanendo Adi 1.71
5   Lee Nguyen  1.69

I could have given you all 300 individuals who had met the following condition but I scaled it down; way way down. Why did I limit this to five examples? Well, because this is about Lee Nguyen and since he rounded out the top-5 it made the perfect complimentary talking point. Also, I don't think I could have lived with myself had Juan Luis Anangono found his way into the top-10 (which he did).

Obviously, the narrative with Lee's MVP candidacy is that while he doesn't have the stats that compare quantitatively he has shouldered the loud when it counts to  be that difference maker at the end of matches. Seeing him on this list does play a bit to that thought. 

However, looking further down it you can see Obafemi Martins at 18 (1.33) followed even closer by Robbie Keane (1.59) and Bradley Wright-Phillips (1.49) at 8, 9 respectively. The question then becomes if that is enough to build a run towards the leagues most valuable player award?

This isn't suppose to be a biting article with the intention to take away from Nguyen's contributions. I'm a big fan of what he's done this season and the example he is for what talent teams can unearth if they are willing to invest some time and money in the domestic market.

This is about how you contextualize statistics and properly use them to convey meaning. If you were to give another top-10 ballot Nguyen would still not make it, and my awarding Wright-Phillips my vote earlier this month only seems to be justified at this point.

One match to rule them all, but which?

By Harrison Crow (@harrison_crow)

Note: you can find all projected game results in the '+Projections' tab. As noted by Matthias on the page certain percentages may not completely line-up with what might be '2014 Playoff/Shield Push' page. This is due to still using xGoals 2.0 on one page and our freshly minted 3.0 on the other.

It's not as if there are a lot of games left. Entering the final weekend there are a total of nine matches stretched across three days and eight possible play-off positions all in flux with one last seed to be decided between two clubs with all the answers to be had at the conclusion of Kansas City and New York, Sunday night, the last regular season match of the season.

It's easy for most pairs of eyes to wander to Saturday afternoon and the game that will determine the Supporter’s Shield winner. The LA Galaxy and Seattle Sounders FC show cased a fun and exciting match last Sunday that built upon the tension and expectations across the league and delivered upon all the hype. Our projection system has LA with the disadvantage needing an out and out win on the road in Century Link for a chance at the Supporter's Shield. They currently sit with a win projected at near 25%.

The game may have silverware implications but aside from that it’s arguably the least vital to the MLS Cup hopes of the club and it's supporters. As the season comes to a close either clubs will end up in first or second place with neither holding true a place of leverage in the playoff scheme.

If the afternoon is the least impacting, the evening match brings us the most over reaching match that could be the difference between having to play an extra match to reach the MLS Cup final for one team and, alternatively, could decide the playoff fate between another two. FC Dallas plays host to the Portland Timbers as they are hoping to leap frog RSL for the third spot and out of the play-in round. Portland is hoping for... well, anything to keep their playoff hopes alive. This match heavily favors ‘The Hoops’ with home win with a whopping 55% of the outcome.

Portland will need more than just a win against Dallas. The Rose City will be hoping their Cascadia rival, Vancouver, will drop points at home against Colorado later that night. The Whitecaps have the lead for the fifth spot with a point advantage where a win at home would clinch the fifth seed and a chance at Salt Lake or Dallas Wednesday or Thursday night. Vancouver is another high home favorite with 55% chance of a win and a 26% chance at a draw, which would indicate a very high chance that they will end up in their 2nd playoff berth in three seasons.

Out in the Eastern Conference the biggest matches come on Sunday with the first of two is between the newly rebooted Columbus Crew and the Philadelphia Union. Both of which are two of my favorite clubs out east and both for similar reasons (largely, their player acquisition and appraisal methods). It’s the only game this week that we have the road team with the favorable slant but, not by much. Our projection system is at a near three way tie (citing: hwin 30%, awin 39%, draw 31%) between the possible outcomes. It should be a fun match to watch and if nothing else it could build on to some excitement to the final match of the season.

Finally, Sporting has had an uncanny up and down season. One that doesn’t really represent what our numbers tend to believe about them. Those numbers still indicate them to be an elite, top tier club. While, in reality, we've seen them appear to be slipping further and further away from their once lofty perch atop the Eastern Conference. Time will only tell if this is because of bad luck or a change that has quite propagated to our seasonal numbers.

This weekend SKC will need either Columbus to lose or gain an equal amount of points to retain their third place position and a chance of avoiding a dangerous play-in game with the same New York Red Bulls they host Sunday. Again, our metric loves Kansas City, like, a lot. I’ve long said that I don’t trust KC at home as they’ve had a propensity for losing matches in preposterous sorts of ways.

Oh, and I hadn't noticed until now but there is a slight. Again, let me re-emphasize, a SLIGHT chance that through a comedy of errors that New York could still end up with that Third season surpassing both Columbus and Sporting both. Now we have that only at a 2% possibility but the fact is that it could still happen which makes this all the more entertaining.

There are a lot of really good games this weekend and while everyone is tuning into College Football or the NFL, there are games that really matter to a lot of fans and a lot of cities. It’s not just about one team winning an elusive trophy or another cementing their legacy in MLS history. Its about eight clubs holding onto their hats as the card deck gets shuffled one last time before the playoff deal and the start of the second season.

Expected Goals 3.0 is here!

You can check out all the updated Expected Goals stats that you're used to, but now they're based on more-detailed data, explained here

The new model thinks differently of Seattle, among other teams, so check out the team stats.

And Bradley Wright-Phillips gets really goods shots from closer to the goal than the six shot zones of version 2.0 could detect.

Bill Hamid remains king of the net, but Expected Goals 3.0 respects the work of Nick Rimando more so than version 2.0.