By Game 2016

2016 GAME-BY-GAME EXPECTED GOALS

Last Updated 3/4/2019

Note: Does not include own-goals. Dates in UTC. 

HG: Home Goals, HxGt: Home Expected Goals based on our team xG model, HxGp:, Home Expected Goals based on our player xG model, AG: Away Goals, AxGt: Away Expected Goals based on our team xG model, AxGp: Away Expected Goals based on our player xG model, xGDt: Expected Goal Differential based on our team xG model, xGDp: Expected Goal Differential based on our player xG model.

The difference between the models is that our player xG model was built to measure the players' production and the team xG model was built to measure a team's quality. In effect, there are only two differences:

1. Penalty kicks are worth less in the team model. Because earning a PK is a relatively lucky occurrence that isn't necessarily indicative of a quality chance, they're valued at only about 0.248 xG for teams, but because a shooter scores them about 79% of the time, they're worth 0.785 xG for players.

2. Sequential shots get their value diminished slightly in the team model. If a team has a shot worth 0.8 xG that is deflected out for another shot worth 0.8 xG, the team will get credit for 1.0 xG, not 1.8 xG (our exhaustive research shows only one goal can be scored per sequence). In the player model the full 0.8 xG is credited to both shooters.

So if you're looking to see which team created the better chances, then the xGt is probably more relevant. If you want to know which team had the better chances, then xGp is more useful. Here's Drew's much longer post about the differences.

For more on what Expected Goals (xG) means, read our explanation.