Power Rankings

These power rankings are designed to rank teams based on how we would expect them to do if the season were played all over again, and each team played a balanced home and away schedule of 34 games. This ranking is less a function of a team's current position in the standings, and more a projection of what would happen over the long run. The model that produced the results is a diagonally inflated bivariate Poisson model, and it was created to be predictive. The inputs to the model include teams' expected goals for and against, finishing rates for and against (as well as those same statistics from the last 17 games of the past season), and the proportion of home games played by each team (which may artificially inflate or deflate certain statistics).

2015 (Final 4 weeks)

*The model now utilizes only data from this season. Historically, our models have performed extremely well toward the end of the season in terms of projecting which teams will make the playoffs, and how those teams do in the playoffs.

Team xPoints xGD
NYRB 60.1 24.76
TOR 54.0 12.43
LA 53.3 11.32
CLB 50.8 6.52
NE 50.6 6.36
MTL 50.4 5.96
FCD 50.4 6.07
VAN 50.2 5.83
SKC 49.7 4.77
HOU 48.1 2.19
POR 46.3 -0.81
SJ 45.7 -1.73
SEA 45.0 -3.09
PHI 44.6 -4.24
CHI 42.8 -7.83
ORL 41.9 -8.65
COL 39.8 -11.10
RSL 38.8 -14.78
NYC 38.5 -16.74
DCU 37.2 -17.25
*Totals for 34-game season with balanced schedule.

 

2014

Team xPoints
LA 68.6
SEA 59.7
FCD 52.1
CLB 51.9
POR 51.0
SKC 50.4
VAN 50.4
RSL 50.3
PHI 49.5
NE 47.9
DCU 47.0
NYRB 47.0
TOR 44.5
CHI 40.0
MTL 39.6
COL 39.1
HOU 37.5
SJ 35.7
CHV 27.8

 

2013

Team xPoints
LA 63.3
POR 57.6
NYRB 57.4
SKC 56.1
NE 54.9
RSL 53.6
COL 49.3
VAN 49.3
HOU 48.1
MTL 46.6
CHI 46.0
SEA 45.8
SJ 44.9
PHI 43.1
FCD 43.0
CLB 42.9
TOR 36.1
DCU 26.7
CHV 26.1

 

2012

Team xPoints
SJ 59.4
SKC 57.4
SEA 57.1
LA 56.7
RSL 56.6
DCU 52.4
CHI 49.4
NYRB 48.5
HOU 48.1
NE 46.7
FCD 46.5
MTL 44.0
COL 43.9
PHI 43.5
VAN 41.5
CLB 41.3
POR 35.1
TOR 32.6
CHV 28.8

 

2011

Team xPoints
SEA 56.8
FCD 54.8
LA 54.4
RSL 53.7
SKC 53.1
HOU 52.5
NYRB 51.0
COL 49.4
PHI 48.2
CHI 48.1
SJ 45.3
CHV 45.1
POR 42.8
DCU 42.7
CLB 42.1
NE 35.6
VAN 34.5
TOR 31.7