Western Conference Playoff Seeding

For the past few weeks, we have been including each team's probabilities of earning a playoff spot and each team's probabilities of winning the Supporters' Shield (for most points in MLS). Due to the complexity of the tie-breaker system, I have avoided that topic altogether. Until now. Now that every team with at least 7 caring fans has just one match remaining---Chivas USA has two---I have recalculated the actual playoff chances below using our model, accounting for the various tie-breakers. Let's get started easy. The five Western Conference playoff teams may not be mathematically determined; however, by probability, the top five teams today are certain to remain the same. San Jose could tie Seattle and/or Colorado for the fifth-and-final spot, but the first tie-breaker is total wins, and Seattle has that one covered. The second tie-breaker (which would go into effect only against Colorado) is goals scored. Right now San Jose trails Colorado by 12 goals, meaning that San Jose would have to score at least 13 goals to win all the relevant tie-breakers. So yes, the top five in the West can safely be etched in stone.

Seeds are still important, though. Earning a top-three finish allows a team to avoid that one-game playoff between the fourth and fifth-ranked teams in each conference. Below I have given some relevant probabilities for each team's seeding:

The Portland Timbers could theoretically finish anywhere from first to fourth, though with their final game against Chivas, first place is the most likely. Our model gives Portland a 52-percent chance to beat Chivas on the road and lock up the top spot regardless of other outcomes. However, a tie or loss to Chivas leaves the door wide open for the other playoff teams, and thus Portland's overall chances at first place increase only marginally to about 54 percent. Its chances of a dreaded fourth-place finish require a string of results that has just a four-percent likelihood.

Real Salt Lake guarantees itself at least second place in the West with a win. It has about a 42-percent shot at first place, and only a one-percent shot at fourth place---a result that would require a loss to Chivas at home, a Colorado win at Vancouver, and a tie between Los Angeles and Seattle. Thus both RSL and Portland are not likely to find themselves playing in a one-game playoff, and even in that worst-case scenario, either team would get to play at home.

Probabilities surround the LA Galaxy are a little trickier. Finishing in first place would require a win against the Sounders in addition to Chivas getting points in consecutive matches against RSL and the Timbers. That probability is only about three percent. There is, however, a very real chance that the Galaxy finish in fourth or fifth. A loss to Seattle coupled with a Colorado win leaves them in fifth, while a tie in Seattle and a Colorado win would drop LA to fourth. Those probabilities are 11 and 10 percent, respectively. Thus the remaining 76 percent has the Galaxy finishing in either third or second place.

Seattle's football club could finish anywhere between first and fifth. The unlikely sequence that would vault the Sounders into first place includes them beating the Galaxy, Chivas getting points at RSL on Wednesday, and then Chivas returning home to beat Portland at home on Saturday...but that has just a one-percent likelihood. A loss or tie against the Galaxy locks Seattle into the play-in game. Though playing at home, our model really likes LA and gives the Sounders just a 30-percent chance of winning that matchup. That leaves them with a 32-percent chance at fourth and a 38-percent chance at fifth place.

Colorado is in a rough spot, as it would lose potential tie-breakers to Seattle, LA and RSL. Taking first place would require that Colorado win at Vancouver, that Portland and RSL both lose to Chivas, and that Seattle and LA tie. That string of events has virtually a zero-percent chance of happening. Colorado is much more likely to find itself in fifth place. A loss would guarantee the Rapids the last playoff spot, and a tie would stick them there, too, so long as Seattle earned at least a point against LA. All that adds up to a 51-percent chance at finishing fifth and having to play a one-game playoff on the road.

Here's the chart that sums up all of the probabilities for each playoff contender:

	1st	2nd/3rd	4th	5th
POR	54.7%	41.3%	4.0%	0.0%
RSL	41.7%	57.4%	0.8%	0.0%
LA	2.9%	56.8%	29.2%	11.2%
SEA	0.7%	29.4%	32.4%	37.5%
COL	0.0%	15.0%	33.6%	51.3%

LA Galaxy And A Thought About Jaime Penedo

After a short discussion on twitter here, is the record of the LA Galaxy with Jaime Penedo and then again without him. It's an extremely small sample size (7 games with vs. 25 without), and so you have to, of course, approach it with a sense of skepticism.

Penedo Status	PPG
with Jaime Penedo	1.44
without Jaime Penedo	1.57

How good are they? Are they an MLS Cup contender? Well... I generally believe once you get to the playoffs you're a contender regardless. But the question still remains, can the Galaxy still be a team that wins silverware? Maybe, maybe not. It's really hard to judge at this point. For what it's worth, I think it's clear that they are a much better team with him than without. Small sample sizes leave me with only my eyes.

Also, I still think they made a mistake signing Omar Gonzalez to DP contract. I guess that's another can of worms.

Game of the Week: Seattle at Portland

We spent a fair amount of time talking about this match on Thursday night's podcast if you are interested in that sort of thing. Coming into this match, form might be one of the most discussed topics. Seattle has earned just two points in its last four games, while Portland has earned eight points over that same span. In my opinion, form only means something if there's an obvious reason as to its recent fluctuation. For Seattle, there is no obvious reason for its poor play. Seattle has been bad the last four matches in terms of results, but they have actually outshot those opponents 56-to-41.

The real effect on form this game will likely be the fact that Brad Evans and Eddie Johnson are out due to international duty---technically, though in Johnson's case it's more his injury that's going to keep him out. The Timbers will be without Rodney Wallace, Ryan Johnson and Alvas Powell. However, the Timbers' Johnson is not nearly the potential threat as that of the Sounders, and Powell has been in a reserve role since the return of Jack Jewsbury and Futty Danso. The absences seem to favor the Timbers.

The stats suggest that Portland is a somewhat heavy favorite this match. Playing in front of Jeldwen's home fans, with better shot rates and finishing rates on the season, our model suggests the Timbers have a 52-percent probability of winning against the Sounders' 19 percent. This really shouldn't be surprising, as we've seen the strong predictive ability of both home-field advantage and shots rates. What might be slightly more surprising is the effect of this match on the Supporters' Shield race.

In the event of a Portland win, our season simulation suggests Portland would catapult to nearly a 45-percent chance at (at least a share of) the Shield, and Seattle would fall to below five percent (2.3%). However, if Seattle pulls off the upset, it would improve its chances to 26 percent, while simultaneously dropping Portland to virtually zero percent. A tie would actually be the combined worst-case scenario for the two teams. They currently share 38-percent chances at the overall top seed, but a tie would leave the Sounders at 12.4 percent and the Timbers with 0.3 percent, allowing New York (45.3%) and Sporting Kansas City (42.8%) to fight over the Shield.

These two teams are almost sure to make the playoffs, regardless of tonight's outcome. But a top-seed and the prospect of home-field advantage in a potential MLS Cup Final no doubt elicits some drooling from both sets of supporters.

ASA Podcast XXV: The One Where We Go Full West Coast--Mostly

I'm not really going to apologize for the biased topics. It's very heavy Timbers/Sounders, which corresponds with the teams that we support, and we kind of neglect all else. The thing is this: despite there being 17 other teams in the league, this derby could also influence a lot of what's going to happen to the rest of the Western Conference.

Obviously, that isn't the whole narrative to the MLS playoffs, considering that there three-to-four clubs that could possibly swap in or out of the playoffs in the East. However, there just seemed to be a huge story line here to us, as well as some interesting numbers that correspond to it, which is why Timbers/Sounders became this week's theme.

Next week we'll return to taking a look at the rest of the league...mostly. I mean, I'm sure Sunday night's game will come up, but there are other things to be mentioned and you'll hear less of our bias. But, as it has been mentioned previously, bias accounts for a lot when dealing with numbers, and it only seems appropriate that it would also be present in what we do in regards to our podcast.

Oh, well. Here it is, and I hope you like it.

[audio http://americansocceranalysis.files.wordpress.com/2013/10/asa-episode-xxv.mp3]

North American Soccer League and its 2013 First Half

The last 12 months have been rather eventful for the North American Soccer League (NASL). A league that once folded before some of us were born has begun to become some what relevant again. Even putting aside the excitement surrounding the return of the New York Cosmos to professional soccer---a team that is surrounded and entrenched in US Soccer history---one sees how well the league fared against some of the MLS clubs. NASL knocked out two of the big dogs in the LA Galaxy (2-0, Carolina RailHawks) and Seattle Sounders FC (1-0, Tampa Bay Rowdies) this past year.

Add that to the expansion plans of the league outside of New York. This past year they've added Indianapolis, Jacksonville and Oklahoma City to their growing portfolio. These were shrewd moves to get toe holds in two cities that have limited professional sports and strengthen their ties in Florida, what with three soccer cities in South Florida and four in the Southeastern region.

The league is obviously poised for a positive return.

Living in Tampa for the next few months, I plan on taking in at least one match (this weekend in their Derby game vs. Fort Lauderdale) and checking out the scene.

Okay, there is the narrative. Let's take a look at the table and some numbers:

Shot info

Advanced Shot Info

Table Data

Okay, my new friends here in Tampa won't like this very much but Fort Lauderdale should have finished much higher in the table. The disparity in the table between Minnesota and the Strikers is amazing considering the shot data. Though, between expected points and PDO, maybe United FC finished about where they should expect.

There is surprisingly a lot of data in these supplied match reports. I know it may not seem like it, but there is. The time stamped shots can give us a bit more insight to the context of the shots. While we still can't get to know some of the players (outside of the goal scorers) as well, it helps us get to know the teams as a whole within that league.

You can say what you want, but I love the idea of NASL growing and becoming legit competition with MLS. I love USL, NASL and MLS playing in the Open Cup, and I love seeing the sport grow in the country.

I'll continue to throw NASL data out as I collect it. With my new city having an NASL team and a derby game this weekend, I thought it a great time to put this stuff out there. Now talk among yourselves...

A few key games this week...

Since we now have playoff and Supporters' Shield chances on the site, it provides us with a means of weighting each upcoming game by its effect on playoff odds. What if, for instance, Montreal were to lose to New England at home this weekend? There's no doubt it would hurt Montreal and keep New England alive, but just how much would it matter? The same question can be asked of the San Jose and Colorado, who play tonight. Currently, our model gives Colorado and Montreal 90.4 and 82.8 percent chances,* respectively, to make the playoffs, while San Jose and New England sit at 6.0 and 14.1 percent. Remember that our playoff chances refer to earning at least fifth place in the conference, and they do not include probability associated with ties for fifth.

I re-ran our simulations three times, accounting for the three possible conclusions to each of those games. I allowed the simulator to pick winners as usual for the other matches this week and beyond. To the results!

A San Jose tie or loss at home tonight would effectively end its chances of a playoff berth. In just 11 of the 10,000 simulated seasons (0.11%) did San Jose recover from a loss to claim a playoff spot (not counting ties for fifth), and even a tie only doubled those chances to about 0.23 percent. A win boosted its playoff chances from 6.0 to 12.0 percent. Playoffs would still not be likely for the Earthquakes, but at least a win tonight would give them something to play for in the final two games.

Their opponent, Colorado, is the West's most likely team to give up its playoff spot, according to our model. That said, its playoff chances are still quite high. Even a loss to San Jose tonight would only lower the Rapids' playoff chances to about 78.4 percent. A tie or win for Colorado tonight essentially assures it a tie-breaker-free route to the playoffs with at least 98.7 percent probability (99.9% with a win tonight).

Moving over to the East, the game most likely to swing playoff percentage points around is the Montreal---New England matchup. New England could increase its playoff chances from 14.1 to nearly 39 percent with a road win. However, like San Jose, a tie or loss would hurt New England a lot. A tie would leave New England with only about a 5.6 percent shot at the playoffs, and a loss would render the Revs' situation quite hopeless at 1.6 percent.

Conversely, a win or tie for the Montreal Impact would have a mirrored result, boosting its playoff chances to 91.0 percent with a tie and 99.2 percent with win against the Revs. Like Colorado, a loss would not ruin Montreal, and their playoff chances would sit right around 63.3 percent.

A lot of playoff probability is waiting to swing---as much as 12 percent in San Jose's case and 38 percent in New England's case. In my opinion, this speaks as much to the weight resting on these final few weeks as it does to the weight that was on the games that led us to this point. Teams like Colorado and Montreal have performed well enough in the first 30 or 31 games to put themselves in a position where a loss still leaves them with better than 50 percent chances at a playoff spot.

Oh, in case your were curious, our model gives San Jose a 39-percent shot at a win tonight, 31-percent chances of a loss, and 30-percent chances of a tie. As for New England, those probabilities are 29 percent, 39 percent and 32 percent.

*The margins of error for 95% confidence are, at most, 1.0 percent for each playoff percentage calculation.

Analysis Evolved Epsiode XXIV: The One Where We Review The US Open Cup Final

This was a long one folks; the running time is roughly 75 minutes. We usually try to keep everything around an hour, but it's been a while since all three of us were together. There may have been some moments we got a little excited and went longer than normal. This week's first segment was an ode to Ben Olsen and the DC United game plan that not only produced a win on the road against a very tough opponent, but also won them the US Open Cup and a bid to the CONCACAF Champions League. Because the first segment went a bit long we used the second segment to cover the usual past week of matches, with emphasis on the following games: Sporting-Philly, New England-Houston, LA-Portland and Seattle-New York, all of which had significant impacts on the playoff outlook. The last segment saw us go into a bit of detail about Sporting Kansas City and a possible run at the MLS Cup. In our language, possible doesn't always mean probable, but in this case it just might. There is also a the a spot where I completely butcher Matthias' twitter handle, and I may have also made up a some words in there, too, only to have Drew coyly call me on it. All in all, this was was an especially fun episode to record, and I hope that you all enjoy it!

[audio http://americansocceranalysis.files.wordpress.com/2013/10/asa-episode-xxiv.mp3]

D.C. United and Waiting Until Next Year

"Wait until next year" is about to become the mantra for 9 clubs as the MLS playoffs will be kicking off soon. It will leave those clubs behind, along with two more after the play-in round between the 4 & 5 seeds from the East and West, respectively. DC United, despite their US Open Cup victory, are the first of these nine to consider life after the season. With their lack of success this season, much of the discussion following their Open Cup win has been about how good they can be next year, regardless of what they did this season. This seems like a good question, but I decided to open it up a bit. How good have teams been following a season with a bottom-3 finish in the table?

One thing that easily catches one's eye is that there are some repeats on here, which brings sustainability into question, but that's a question for another day. What is important to me now is how massive 8 points is when you are talking about a table that is rich in parity. Bottom dwellers tended to perform about 8 points better in the tables the following season. Right now, 8 points separates the Chicago Fire from being out of the playoffs with a bottom-three finish in the Eastern Conference and a second-place finish. 8 points means a lot!

While 8 points isn't enough to completely change the fortunes DCU this off-season, it's reasonable to expect a better-than-8-point improvement, due to some obvious roster turnover, health being restored to key figures in their best XI, and some added cap flexibility. You can point back to the 2009 New York Red Bulls or even the 2010 Philadelphia Union who both made substantial changes to put them in the playoff picture.

Bottom line: if you think that D.C. United will be terrible next year because they were terrible this year, then you are wrong and getting ahead of yourself.

Champions League: How Much is it Worth to an MLS Club?

The major talking point concerning the CONCACAF Champions League, and gaining entry into the tournament, is the payroll increase that MLS affords a club that qualifies. Now, this isn't the sizable increase for a club that we see for a team in Europe, but it has the potential to be a game-changer in MLS, depending on the team and its ownership. Most figures concerning team salary/payroll are generally guarded for obvious reasons. However, rather than using official numbers, I went through the data generously provided by the Players Union and calculated the accrued difference in pay between when the team won entry and the following year after the increase.

Now, as it happens, the Union only has data posted as far back as 2007, that's okay. Since the tournament underwent changes, adapting to it's current format back in 2008.

Obviously, this is still a small sample size, but it gives you a rough figure on how this could help DC United and the other Champion-League-bound clubs this season.  A big caveat to using the Unions' data is that its just a snap shot at a given point in the season. Not necessarily what they paid out in dues for the entire campaign.

An obvious tip-off to that is Seattle dropping payroll from 2009 to 2010. They didn't cut funds, but because late in the season they traded away Freddie Ljungberg to Chicago, his cost was associated with their club despite Seattle playing the majority of his contract for the season.

This is just one example among 20 unique situations. No season is the same. The LA Galaxy and their 16% cut in 2011 largely came from David Beckham's greatly reduced fee. 2013 comes and that fee is entirely off the book with his trip to PSG and the Galaxy not replacing his huge contract with another high paid designated player. Instead they signed Omar Gonzalez.

Still a team gaining access to the Champions League enjoys a nice 9% raise in their annual spending, and as is the case in other leagues, dollars spent correlate to points and position in the table to some degree.

MLS Playoff Chances

We are now including playoffs and Supporters' Shield probabilities on our MLS Tables, if you were unaware. These chances are calculated based on each team's current points and remaining schedule. The remaining game-by-game probabilities are specifically generated from the following:

• Which team is playing at home. Home teams have won nearly 50% of all MLS matches during the last three seasons. There is definitely an advantage to having a remaining schedule packed with home matches. 
• Total attempts generated and conceded. All season I have been studying the best predictive measures, and all season it's been SHOTS.
• Finishing rates for and against. Though finishing rates weren't very predictive at the season's midpoint, it turns out they're not completely worthless after at least 25 games.
• Past strength of schedule, as measured by past opponents' attempts data.
• Other variables, such as past possession percentage, were considered, but they did not help predict the outcome of the game better than those chosen above.

The above indicators were tested on the last 10 week's worth of games during the 2011, 2012 and 2013 seasons (well, up through the most recent week). Using a multinomial regression, I was able to calculate the influence of each indicator, and then the resulting probabilities of each of the three possible outcomes (home win, draw, away win). Once these probabilities were established, it was a matter of simulation.

My simulation was based on the game-by-game probabilities (above), and I let the computer simulate the games as though they were weighted coin flips (like how your PS3 simulates Fifa or Madden games) over and over again. So basically, I simulated the last 36 games of the season 10,000 times each, added up the total points for each team, and created 10,000 simulated tables. The POFF% probabilities is simply the proportion of times that each team earned a "clean" playoff berth---that is, ties for fifth were not included. The Shield% probability represents the proportion of times each team earned at least a share of the top position in MLS.

As an example, Portland made the playoffs 9,919 times out of the 10,000 simulated seasons, seeing its simulated probability of making the playoffs go up about 4.7% from last week after a win against the Galaxy. What might surprise you a little is that the Timbers have a very real chance (16.3%) at the Supporters' Shield, according to this model. That's up about 10% from last week.

To try to understand why Portland received such a favorable jump, consider that just about every possible thing that could have helped the Timbers' chances happened. Portland earned 3 points against a team that the model thought was pretty good (the Galaxy), Seattle and New York tied---the best possible outcome from Portland's perspective---and Sporting KC lost in a pretty big upset. Though RSL still won, that doesn't matter too much because Portland gets RSL at home, and that match will be the one that most likely determines a points winner between the two teams. Also consider that Portland has a home match against Seattle coming up. Because the model gives big boosts to home teams, the Timbers have a reasonable chance for 6-point swings against RSL and Seattle. Oh, and there's that away match at Chivas to end the season. The model thinks Portland will take three points in that one with about 50% probability,* which is quite high for any away team.

There is still a lot of fight left in the Eastern Conference playoff push, as four teams have less than 60% probability of making the playoffs. In the West, things are a little more straightforward, though San Jose has been sneaky of late, and it could potentially steal Colorado's playoff spot. The model seems to like the Galaxy's talent and schedule more than Colorado, enough to put the Rapids on the Western Conference's hot seat.

*That might seem low, but consider that Chivas has 5 wins, 7 losses and 4 draws at home this season. That means they have only lost 7/16 games at home, or about 44%. Portland's 50.3% makes more sense in that context.