Season Preview: Seattle Sounders

The Sounders history comes at you as if you had just yelled "come at me, bro!" and meant it. The Sounders didn't just come out of the gate in 2009, they came out of the gate like they had just stolen a car, killed a hooker in GTA, and they weren't interested in stopping until they got those five stars and summoned multiple helicopters. The funny thing is that with all this "success," they've never won a single piece of MLS-specific hardware. Yes, they've earned 3 U.S. Open Cup trophies and fell just short on penalties to Sporting KC for a fourth, and the club has tallied the 2nd-most total points in MLS since its inception (266 total points, 53 points per season). But the Sounders have inevitably faltered when the time has come to step up and win the trophy. Adrian Hanauer and Co. are set on changing that in 2014. 2013 Finish: 15-12-7, 52 points; 42 GF, 42 GA. Fourth place in Western Conference. Lost in MLS Cup Conference Semi-Finals.

Transactions

	Players In			Players Out
GK	Stefan Frei	Trade (Toronto)	GK	Michael Gspurning	Option Declined
F	Tristan Bowen	Trade (Chivas)	D	Marc Burch	Option Declined
D	Chad Marshall	Trade (Chivas)	M	Blair Gavin	Option Declined
F	Kenny Cooper	Trade (Dallas)	F	Steve Zakuani	Option Declined
F	Corey Hertzog	Re-Entry Stage 2	M	Mauro Rosales	Trade (Chivas)
M	Aaron Kovar	Home Grown Player	M	Adam Moffatt	Trade (Dallas)
F	Sean Okoli	Home Grown Player	F	Eddie Johnson	Trade (DC United)
F	Chad Barrett	Re-Entry Stage 2	D	Jhon Kennedy Hurtado	Trade (Chicago)
D	Jalil Anibaba	Trade (Chicago)	D	Patrick Ianni	Trade (Chicago)
M	Marco Pappa	Allocation	F	Fredy Montero	Transfer (Sporting CP)
			F	Will Bates	Waived
			D	Jimmy Ockford	Loaned (NY Cosmos)
			F	Eriq Zavaleta	Loaned (Chivas)
			M	Alex Caskey	Traded (DC United)

Roster churn: Seattle returns 58.9% of its minutes played from 2013 (15th most in MLS and 7th most in the Western Conference)

2014 Preview

Now, after an extremely disappointing finish in 2013 to not just the season but the playoffs, the Sounders have rebuilt their squad with dynamic talent that specifically caters to their team chemistry---and, side note, they may be just as dynamic off the pitch as on it. Seattle invested in the team's spine by finding new keeper Stefan Frei to fill the boots of the departed Michael Gspurning, acquired Chad Marshall from Columbus,  signed critical midfielder Ozzie 'Honey Badger' Alonso to a designated player contract, and then traded Adam Moffat for Kenny Cooper. Cooper looks to be inserted in the spare striker role and work with Obafemi Martins in lieu of the wayward Eddie Johnson.

The team has a pretty solid line-up and even includes some interesting youth beyond just that of DeAndre Yedlin. Tristan Bowen, the original home grown player (HGP), joins the attacking front line and should get some looks up top this season. Along with him, the club will be expecting big things from central midfielder Andy Rose. Sean Okoli and Aaron Kovar, who could contribute to the season in their own ways, lead the second coming of Sounders HGP.

Overall, the club wasn't bad in 2013. However, "not bad" wasn't on the list of ideal outcomes at the beginning of the season. Seattle limped out of the gate in 2013, and without key pieces in the lineup, the Sounders found that they weren't generating as many opportunities as their opponents, and the poor results followed suit. It came as little surprised that, without big-money players in the lineup, and with no CCL money available or that four-year bubble money for new teams, the Sounders were just too thin to deal with the weekly roster trimming.

Both of those financial sources that we went dry were also helping to soak up the payroll strains of having Steve Zakuani on the roster. It's not his fault that problems have continued to occur following that horrible incident, but it left the Rave Green with an extremely tough decision to make this off-season. A decision that forced the club to decline to tender a contract to Zakuani, which ended in the delight of many Portland supporters--as the Timbers swooped in and signed him--and the sobs of Emerald City Supporters.

Before today, we knew the Sounders would be playing a lot of new players this season, and the roster churn continued today with the move of Alex Caskey to DC United. This will be one of the "newest" teams in MLS in some ways, especially when you consider that Clint Dempsey only played nine games for the Sounders last season. The squad is nearing completion with the likelihood that they'll add a trialist to an important rotation spot. Now that we pretty much know who's on the squad, the question is how consistent they will be.

As mentioned, Seattle's numbers from 2013 all look very much mediocre. Those are, of course, averages from an entire season, and this only serves as another reminder that the mountain peaks were high and the valleys were equally low last season. Games against FC Dallas, San Jose and even Real Salt Lake at home were decisive victories by a team that ruled its opponents both on the scoreboard and by the numbers. Then they saw embarrassing losses on the road against those same Real Salt Lake and Dallas teams, as well as against Colorado. Not to mention that Vancouver pretty much won the Cascadia Cup by a landslide at Century Link field in a game that piled on to the fact that the club had gone from Supporters' Shield favorite to being on the cusp of falling out of the playoffs. The club isn't as bad as the ratio numbers display---as suggested by our soon-to-be-published xGD 2.0---but it wasn't the type of season that they want to pin up on Mom's fridge.

Going forward, with all the pressure the supporters have on Sigi Schmid, this is a season where he may need to find the minimum of an MLS Cup Final appearance to save his job. With an improved back line and a full season of both Martins and Clint Dempsey, along with the addition of a creative player like Marco Pappa coming out of the midfield, the club has all the pieces at their disposal to get to the playoffs rather comfortably. And once they get there, it's all going to be all about the current health of the squad. The injury bug has not been favorable for the Sounders in the past, but that said, their depth has also improved. The patience has worn thin on the Schmid coaching regime. It's time for some real hardware.

Crowdsourcing Results

American Soccer Analysis readers seem to think that the Sounders will continue to have success in 2014 . They have projected Seattle to finish 3rd in the Western Conference this season, with 28.1% of voters placing them there, and 63.3% of voters placing them somewhere in the top three. There are only a few doubters, with a very small 6.4% of voters placing them in spots six through nine, out of the playoffs.

Season Preview: Real Salt Lake

The optimist looks at Real Salt Lake’s 2013 season and praises the club for making the MLS Cup Finals. The pessimist complains that they lost the MLS Cup Finals in penalty kicks despite holding a lead with 15 minutes remaining, facing a goalkeeper who seemed like his joints had frozen solid. The optimist praises the club’s performance in the U.S. Open Cup, lauding their run to the finals. The pessimist complains that they lost in the finals against DC United, a dreadful team. The optimist praises the team for finishing with a 16-10-8 record and a +16 goal differential in the regular season. The pessimist complains that they failed to win the Supporters Shield (again!) by 3 points. For Real Salt Lake in 2013, perception was everything. 

2013 Finish: 16-10-8, 56 points; 57 GF, 41 GA. Second place in Western Conference. Lost in MLS Cup Finals.

Transactions

Players In			Players Out
Name	Pos		Name	Pos
Jordan Allen	M/F	Homegrown	Yordany Alvarez	M	Out of Contract
Luke Mulholland	M	Free	Brandon McDonald	D	Out of Contract
			Josh Saunders	GK	Out of Contract
			Khari Stephenson	M	Out of Contract
			Lovel Palmer	D/M	Traded to Chicago

Roster Churn: RSL returns 90.5% of its minutes played in 2013 (1st in all of MLS).

Know When to Hold ‘Em

In early 2013, Real Salt Lake owner Dell Loy Hanson made the decision not to extend Jason Kreis’s contract, gambling that Kreis’s stock would come down and he would be able to nab the coach at a bargain price. After all, the club had just lost Will Johnson, Jamison Olave, Fabian Espindola, and Jonny Steele in an offseason filled with cost-cutting moves. 2013 seemed likely to be a rebuilding year. Twelve months and two cup finals later, Jason Kreis is preparing for the 2015 debut of New York City FC, leaving Jeff Cassar, promoted from assistant coach, to lead Real Salt Lake. Cassar, with the team since 2007, is a safe choice, but even with all 11 starters returning, he may find it difficult to replicate the kind of success that RSL achieved under Jason Kreis.

In Good Hands

Nick Rimando returns to man the RSL nets for the 8^th consecutive season. There’s nothing much that can be said about Rimando that you probably don’t already know. A 14-year veteran of the league, Rimando has ascended to third in command of the United States net. Remarkably, Rimando has a 10-0-0 record with the U.S. team, and is already tied for 5^th all-time on the goalkeeper victory list with Brad Guzan.

Rimando’s national team opportunities have come as a result of stellar club play. Last season, he finished 2^nd to Donovan Ricketts in Goalkeeper of the Year award voting, and was probably unlucky to do so. Rimando really is the total package: His reflexes and shot-stopping ability are legendary, and while it may not surprise you that Rimando finished 4^th in pass completion percentage, the diminutive Rimando is also an excellent commander of his penalty area. In 2014, Rimando finished 4^th in MLS in catches per 90 with 2.63. This paragraph is far too long for one that could have been summed up simply with "Real Salt Lake is in good hands with Nick Rimando."

Continuity in the Back

With Chris Wingert, Nat Borchers, Chris Schuler, and Tony Beltran patrolling in front of him, Nick Rimando, too, will be in good hands. In the playoffs, Borchers and Schuler showed the potential to become one of the best pairings in the league. Though that is contingent on whether Schuler can remain healthy. In both the 2012 and 2013 seasons, Schuler was sidelined for multiple months with a foot injury. It was evident just how much Salt Lake missed Schuler last season when he was injured: with Schuler on the field last season, RSL conceded only 0.94 goals per 90, without him, they conceded 1.45 goals per 90. Yes, the sample size is small, and no, these numbers do not take into account opponent and location of the game. Still, Schuler’s contributions to defense were evident when 20-year old Carlos Salcedo was forced to step in. Nat Borchers provides much more certainty. In his 9-year Major League Soccer career (he spent two years with Odd Grenland in Norway), Borchers has averaged more than 28 starts per season.

The Best Defense…

However, for all they do defensively, it may be their contributions to the attack that makes the RSL backline so valuable. Nat Borchers is one of the calmest defensive distributers in the league. Last season he had the 3^rd best pass completion rate in the league, behind only Osvaldo Alonso and George John. This may be because Real Salt Lake puts a premium on possession and building the attack from the back, which sees Beckerman and the rest of the midfielders providing outlet options constantly. The team led MLS last season in possession percentage, pass success percentage, and percentage of passes that were under 25 yards. After all, Kwame Watson-Siriboe finished with a 93% passing rate (in but a mere handful of games), and Carlos Salcedo and Schuler both finished above 80%.

Wingert and Beltran involve themselves in the attack as well, though not always in the traditional, bomb-down-the-flanks-and-send-in-a-cross manner. When Real Salt Lake is in possession, the two outside backs (and Beltran especially) inhabit an advanced position on the field, where they can combine effectively with Gil, Grabavoy, Morales, and Saborio. Beltran is the more threatening of the two outside backs, finishing last season 5^th in the league in key passes among defenders with 25.

Owning the Ball

The midfield will look awfully familiar for RSL fans this season as well, and why shouldn’t it? No midfield quartet in MLS can control the pace of the game like Kyle Beckerman, Ned Grabavoy, Luis Gil, and Javier Morales. Beckerman provides the transition from defense to attack, from left to right. He does it often, and he does it well. The only midfielder with more passes than Beckerman last season was Marcelo Sarvas, who had 3 more passes than Beckerman, though the Galaxy midfielder did it in 610 more minutes. Beckerman was the runaway leader in passes per game with 69.7, nearly 10 more than number two on the list. And though better known for his grit and tactical nous, Beckerman also manages to throw in no-look assists from time to time, just for fun (and to [almost] win MLS Cup).

Number two on that list of passes per game in MLS last year? None other than Javier Morales. Though he always has a target on his back, the 34-year-old Argentine playmaker often drifts wide and deep to ensure that he sees enough of the ball. And when he gets the ball, RSL benefits. Last season, Morales finished (per game) in the top 10 in fouls suffered (1^st), key passes (2^nd), successful through balls (4^th), and successful crosses (6^th).

These numbers are gaudy enough, but numbers like that are often indicative of a high-risk style of play, sending in large numbers of passes and crosses to in the hopes that a few of them will lead to dangerous scoring opportunities. And while he does send in a lot of passes (Morales has attempted [2,327] and completed [1,857] more passes in the opponent's half than any other MLS player over the last two years), what sets Morales apart from his peers is his effectiveness. While the average pass completion percentage of the rest of the top ten “key passers” (all attack-minded players) in 2013 was 76.6%, Morales’s was a hearty 83.1%. This number is inflated a bit both because he plays on such a talented, possession-oriented team and because he receives the ball farther from goal than, say, Thierry Henry or Robbie Keane, both of which lead to more safe ball touches. But even with these advantages, Morales should be regarded as one of the most talented players in the league, one who was unfortunate not to have been included in the MVP race last season.

The Other Guys

The rest of the midfield will be rounded out by two of the most underrated players in the league. Gil gets more publicity than Grabavoy. He did when he signed with Major League Soccer amid rumors of pursuit by clubs like Arsenal, and he does as a 20-year-old who has caught the eye of Jurgen Klinsmann. Gil deserves his plaudits, of course. After all, how many MLS players have played in 84 games before their 20^th birthday? (By my count, just Freddy Adu and Eddie Gaven, though others, like Diego Fagundez, should get there).

But how many times have you heard Ned Grabavoy referenced recently? If you listen to the media or fans, probably not very many, but if you’re taking note of the play-by-play man on an RSL broadcast, you probably hear it quite often. Grabavoy is everywhere on the field: relentlessly pressuring the ball (he finished 14^th last season in tackles per game among midfielders), and then quickly and efficiently--far more than he gets credit for (86% pass completion rate, 4^th best in MLS)--distributing it. Remarkably, despite all of Grabavoy’s defensive grit, he finished tied for 6^th among MLS midfielders in fouls suffered with 63 (9^th in fouls per game with 2.0), and committed only 37 himself. If that’s not enough, he pitched in with 5 goals on only 29 shots, intelligently taking 20 shots inside the box versus only 9 outside.

The Finishers

Up top, Salt Lake will deploy their preferred pair of Alvaro Saborio and Robbie Findley. Saborio may be the most indispensable member on the RSL squad. He has scored at least 11 goals in each of the four seasons he has been in the league. Last season, due to injuries and international call-ups, he only managed 15 starts, yet still racked up 12 goals. His .80 goals per 90 minutes led the league.

Findley will provide support for Saborio. He may not have the greatest skill on the ball, but his pace down the channels draws defenders out of position and opens up space for Saborio and streaking midfielders. However, if Findley gets off to a slow start, he’ll have to watch his back. Last season, the trio of Olmes Garcia, Joao Plata, and Devon Sandoval, three very different types of forwards, all showed promise, and will be looking for even more playing time this season.

The Prediction

This preview has featured incessant, nearly sycophantic levels of praise for RSL players, but years of success despite shuttling players in and out of Utah to stay under the salary cap suggests that maybe it’s the system just as much as it is the players. After all, when Sebastian Velazquez filled in for Luis Gil, he looked great. Same for Yordany Alvarez for Ned Grabavoy. Joao Plata, Robbie Findley. Sandoval, Saborio. How much of the success of RSL was because of the system? How much of the system was based on Kreis’s presence?

American Soccer Analysis readers seem to think that the team will not have quite the same success this year. They have projected RSL to finish 4^th in the Western Conference this season, with 20.69% of voters placing them there. Although very few people think that they will miss the playoffs entirely, with only 13.05% of voters placing them in spots six through nine.

Season Preview: Houston Dynamo

Since the club arrived in Houston Dominic Kinnear has built himself an empire, but not one built off big names or flashy play. Playing on the smallest pitch in MLS, the club is built on sound fundamentals. Defense might not necessarily win games but it can secure points on the road. Combine that with the fortress that has been the Orange's BBVA Compass stadium--where they went an MLS record 36 home games without a loss stretching multiple seasons--and Houston can get points anywhere consistently. They've made the playoffs 7 out of their 8 years since arriving in Space City, so the goal of 2014 isn't just to make the playoffs. It's about getting back to the MLS Cup and taking it back for the first time since 2007.

2013 Starting XI

	Players In			Players Out
D	David Horst	Trade (Portland)	F	Brian Ching	Retired
D	A.J. Cochran	MLS SuperDraft	M	Bobby Boswell	Out of Contract
M	Tony Cascio	Trade (DC)	F	Calen Carr	Out of Contract
F	Mark Sherrod	Trade (Chicago)	D	Mike Chabala	Option Declined
GK	Michael Lisch	Loan (Stoke City)	M	Alex Dixon	Option Declined
			F	Cam Weaver	Option Declined

Roster churn: Houston returns 82.84% of its minutes played from 2013 (5th most in MLS and 4th most in the Eastern Conference)

2014 Preview

The core of Houston has always been built around their defense, but this season may prove to be a bit of a departure from that theme. The club chose to decline Bobby Boswell's contract and instead went with a rotating duo of veterans at centerback to be paired with Jamaican stalwart Jermaine Taylor. Eric Brunner and David Horst, both 28, aren't the sexiest names in regards to defense, but then again defense is generally the least sexy place on the pitch. When you consider the fact that this is normally a strength, falling backwards now to Brunner and Horst is probably a less than appealing subject for those in Houston.

That said, I established a rule two years ago. I have a series of rules that I generally come up with in dealing with life in general. These rules aren't so much rules as just helpful guidlines that generally keep me from more problems. High on that list is to never, ever bet against Dominic Kinnear. (Right after never betting at all because it's a misdemeanor in Washington). The guy just knows A) how to get to the playoffs and B) how to put together a roster. Probably in the opposite order, though.

The cheaper tandem along the backline helps them conserve cash while still providing depth and coverage at an important position. Considering the club failed to make the CCL this year, they were faced with a smaller budget to keep the players they had and still find reasonable depth for the season. There is, of course, the question about how big of a defensive drop off they are going to experience from Boswell to someone like Brunner. But considering our numbers have Tally Hall as one of the top goal keepers in the league, and they don't even pay him anywhere near it, the Dynamo should remain a top defensive team.

While everyone likes to rant and rave about Brad Davis and his left foot, as the career leader in both assists and goals for the club, it's easy to pass over Oscar Boniek Garcia the other major attacking threat from the midfield. OBG led the club in key passes with 76 and added 18 total shots, as well.

Another one of those is lesser heralded moves was Alexander Lopez being added from Honduras. Lopez, a member of the U-23 national team and possibly an option for the Honduras World cup team, was brought into the club last summer. Though Lopez was mostly invisible to the scoring operations taking place in Houston last season, Garcia has taken him under his wing this off-season and is helping to groom his fellow countryman.

Adding to the fire that is burning bright with the under-appreciated pieces that Houston has assembled, there is plenty of talk around what another season with Warren Creavalle might mean to the Orange. He's a Swiss-army-knife-like defensive piece in a love-child-like mix of Brad Evans and Geoff Cameron.* The former Georgia product is growing by leaps and bounds over the last 12 months. He may not be a clear cut choice to start at this point for the Dynamo's XI, but he's going to be the first player off the bench to fill into just about any position in the midfield or defensive back line, and that flexibility has huge value over an entire season.

*Editor's note: The editor is just going to let this sit there.

The remaining question is how Will Bruin performs in 2014. The dancing bear should be good for about 10 goals or more this season. He's put up near 3 shots per 90 minutes played each of the past two years, and while those chances becoming goals is dependent more on location, he's seen a bit of bad luck strike him at times where, in the year previous, those balls bounced his way.

Paired along side English journeyman Giles Barnes--who looks to have perhaps found a home this past year, scoring 9 goals on 97 shots through 2500 minutes--Houston has multiple wonder-strikers from distance. It's one thing to be lucky; it's another to find goals because of the courage to continue to fire the shots.

The Dynamo found a way to keep the group of players they recruited for 2013 together for another run of it in 2014, despite declining payroll and allocation funds. They've got youth on their side with a touch of growing strength, added to one of the most brilliant coaches in the league managing them. I wouldn't be surprised if they had a top-3 finish with a boring run through the schedule. The other side of things is that they're going to have a tough time of it with the likes of Philadelphia, Toronto, DC and even Columbus all being improved sides, that they could end up on the outside looking in when the playoffs come rolling around. It's definitely a tough year to be in the East.

Crowd Sourcing Placement

4th place in Eastern Conference; 75 of the 404 5th-place votes (18.56%), with 207 of 404 (51.23%) thinking Houston will make the playoffs this season.

MLS Prediction Contest -- Win a Subscription to MLS Live 2014!

Well, it's time. Break out your crystal balls, divining rods, and other implements of futile superstition. The American Soccer Analysis MLS prediction contest is here. For the first two weeks of the season, use your knowledge of the league (or the flipping of a coin--I recommend a Kennedy half dollar) to out-prognosticate the rest of our ASA readers. If you answer the most total questions over the two weeks, you win a subscription to MLS Live 2014. 

Only followers of American Soccer Analysis on Twitter (@AnalysisEvolved) will be eligible for the prize. We are doing this for two reasons: One, shameless self-promotion (well, we feel some shame, but we're doing it nonetheless), and two, simplicity. We do not have to collect anybody's name or personal information except for their Twitter handle (though if you have a Twitter account, let's face it, you're probably begging for the world's attention anyway).

Now I'll shut up and you can get to picking...

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Season Preview: San Jose Earthquakes

Soccer in San Jose has a unique history, going back to the Clash earning MLS’s first ever victory in 1996. The franchise changed its name to the Earthquakes in 1999, and a few years later it started winning MLS Cups thanks to a Landon Donovan-sized gift from Bayer Leverkusen. A young Donovan helped to lead San Jose to MLS Cup wins in 2001 and 2003. But after the 2005 season, the ownership group grew tired of failing to embezzle funds from Silicon Valley’s tax payers and moved head coach Dominic Kinnear and the rest of the team to Houston. The Earthquakes were not reborn until the 2008 season, and since then they have been mired in a streak of mostly 6^th and 7^th-place finishes, with an out-of-the-blue, historic 2012 season sprinkled in.¹

2013 Starting XI

Transactions

Player Added	Position	From		Player Lost	Position	To
Jean-Baptiste Pierazzi	M	Out of nowhere		Ramiro Corrales	M	Retired
Atiba Harris	F	Trade from Colorado		Nana Attakora	D	Option declined
Billy Schuler	F	Weighted lottery		Dan Gargan	D	Option declined
Tommy Thompson	M	Homegrown		Marcus Tracy	F	Option declined
Shaun Francis	D	Re-Entry Stage 2		Evan Newton	GK	Option declined
Brandon Barklage	D	Re-Entry Stage 2		Peter McGlynn	D	Option declined
Bryan Meredith	GK	Free		Cesar Diaz Pizarro	F	Option declined
J.J. Koval	M	SuperDraft		Mehdi Ballouchy	M	Out of contract
				Justin Morrow	D	Traded to Toronto FC
				Rafael Baca	M	Transferred to Cruz Azul
				Jaime Alas	M	Loan expired
				Marvin Chávez	M	Traded to Colorado
				Steven Beitashour	D	Traded to Vancouver

Roster churn: San Jose returns 68.8% of its minutes played from 2013, 14th in MLS and 6th in the Western Conference.

2014 Preview

Coming off a 72-goal, 66-point performance in 2012’s regular season, many thought San Jose would likely find the playoffs again, and even be in the running for an MLS Cup Trophy. But 2013 saw the Earthquakes miss out on the playoffs completely, abruptly ending their hot run during the second half of the season. Striker Chris Wondolowski’s past two seasons mirrored those of the team, eclipsing the league in 2012 with 27 goals, and then failing to reach half that tally in 2013. Our upgraded shot locations data suggest that Wondo scored just 88.5 percent of the goals that a league-average player would be expected to score based on his shot opportunities. Will 2014 see the return of Wondolowski and San Jose to one of the top seeds in the West, or will it prove to be the franchise that has placed 6^th or 7^th in five of the past six seasons?

San Jose was a perplexing club from a statistical standpoint last season. Our expected goal differential statistics (xGD) really liked the fact that the Earthquakes earned 4.8 shots per game from zone 2---the dangerous area around the penalty spot---which was good for second best in the entire league. San Jose finished with the league’s third-best xGD at +6.8. Those metrics seem to suggest that the second half of last season, when San Jose earned 33 points over 17 games, was more representative of their true ability. Indeed, it's worth noting that San Jose has been one of the best teams in the league for three-quarters of the past two seasons.

Before we get moving too quickly, though, we have some new data to bring the Goonies partway back to earth. This year’s version of shot locations data will break shots down by how they were taken, specifically headed versus kicked. With almost all the data in, now, it turns out that San Jose took nearly 23 percent of all its shots as headers---second only to Seattle---but headers are finished at about half the rate of kicked shots. The upgraded xGD 2.0 pegged the Earthquakes at an xGD of about +2.0 in 2013, which placed them fifth in the West. Fitting, as our readers picked San Jose to finish 5th in this coming season.

Of course, statistics from last year have a hard time determining the effect of losing players like Steve Beitashour and Marvin Chávez (the team’s assist leader in 2012). The major scoring pieces are still there in Wondolowski, Alan Gordon, and Steven Lenhart, but it’s harder to peg down the importance and replaceability of those midfielders and defenders.

If San Jose can continue to generate dangerous opportunities, as they have in each of the past two seasons, then look for the Earthquakes to regain a playoff spot in 2014.

Crowd Sourcing Results

5^th place in the Western Conference; 138 voters (31.4%) felt that San Jose will be either a 4^th or 5^th seed in the playoffs in 2014, but 228 voters (56.4%) projected them to miss the playoffs completely.

Season Preview: Philadelphia Union

The Philadelphia Union is a club that doesn't have much in the way of a history. That isn't a knock.  But what they have done is built off plenty of American Soccer history that surrounds Chester, PA. They've taken time to acknowledge the roots that were here in the country long before MLS and even NASL, embroidering the once famous American club Bethlehem Steel logo on both the back and inside of their third kit introduced last season. This is easily one of my favorite things about any third kit out there. Now with their roots going into the community, the club has targeted 2014 as the year they want to start establishing more of their own history. 2013 Finish: 46 points; Sixth place in Eastern Conference, Missed MLS playoffs

	Players In			Players Out
GK	Brian Holt	Free Transfer	GK	Oka Nikolov	Waived
GK	Andrea Blake	MLS SuperDraft	M	Greg Jordan	Waived
D	Ethan White	Trade (DC)	M	Kléberson	Waived
D	Austin Berry	Trade (Chicago)	F	Don Anding	Waived
M	Maurice Edu	Loan (Stoke City)	D	Chris Albright	retired
M	Vincent Nogueira	Free Transfer(Sochaux)	M	Michael Farfan	Transfer (Cruz Azul)
M	Cristian Maidana	Free Transfer	D	Jeff Parke	Trade (DC)
M	Corben Bone	Re-Entry Stage 1

Roster Churn: 82.19% returning minutes (7th most in MLS)

2014 Preview

The Union are not a club short on questions. Are they too young? Can Maurice Edu and Austin Berry be enough to limit the WW-II-like gun fire shots that destroyed Zach MacMath's confidence and their play-off chances in 2013? Can Jack Mac finally score goals on a consistent basis? Oh, and can someone finally explain what the heck is #DOOP?

The club won only three of its last 12 games over the final three months, compiling a paltry total of 12 points over that period. I think it's kind of funny that the Union's answer to that would be to seemingly to kick their young goalkeeper in the balls.

Maybe that's not entirely fair to the front office, as picking up goalkeeper Andre Blake wasn't necessarily about improving right now, or even about MacMath's performance last season. Yet it seems, albeit a bit unfairly, that some of the blame of their collapse is attributed to him and how he performed.

Again, I'm not down with that narrative that MacMath had a direct hand in the club flailing about at the end. Surrendering 14 goals over a 12 game stretch and not winning is less about how one individual performed and more about the team as a whole. It's important to understand that goal totals over any specific time period isn't ever a true representation of talent, as it's impossible to say from that tally how many shots were attempted and the quality of them.

If the opposition only fired 14 shots over those 12 games and they were from outrageous locations, such as some where deep in the midfield, then we'd all be appalled with his lack of skill. This isn't the case with MacMath and the reality is that during that time the Zolos went five games without scoring, and their opponents went seven games without scoring.

While there was disappointment by the fan base, I feel that the front office tried to fix something that wasn't broken. Sure, they upgraded the defense, and adding Maurice Edu to the midfield is only going to further help and strengthen that back line. These were all general problems that weren't going to be real hampers when considering whether they had enough talent to get into the playoffs.

I've already mentioned the whole problem of dropping points due to the lack of goals, and the goal-scoring drought of Jack McInerney certainly did not help. Going from June to October without scoring goals was a deeply frustrating time for the striker, as he'd admitted in several interviews. Only 21 years old, he's already seen time with the USMNT being called up to the Gold Cup roster. Though remaining uncapped, it was a great opportunity for the young striker. Unfortunately, his return to Philly seems to coincide with the point where he completely "collapsed."

Now, people are still trying to identify whether or not goal-scoring ability is really about putting a ball where you want it versus the quantity/quality of the shots that are generated by the individual. I'm personally of the belief that there has to be an in between for those two possibilities. Though at the professional level the question of whether or not it matters, or if there exist significant finishing gaps between strikers, is an interesting discussion. McInerney is obviously one of these strange cases to consider. Bestowed as the 'American Chicharito' it's been said that he's always in the right place at the right time. This is basically the secret to Wondolowski's success, and it might highlight why he also went through his own scoring drought, but I think it also has something to do with the lack of support from the midfield creating chances.

The additions of both Cristian Maidana and Vincent Nogueira suggests that this year's midfield will be an improved one for creating goal-scoring opportunities. While it's impossible to say how these new imports will fair in MLS, we've seen success from other attacking midfield Argentinians over the last couple of years, and it will be interesting to see if Maidana will follow in the foot steps of Morales and Valeri.

I see the club's final placement as high as 3rd and as low as 8th, though I've heard a couple of different individuals cite them as possible wooden spoon holders, considering the amount of hope they've invested in several positions and improvements. However, despite making major improvements with Austin Berry, Maidana, Nogueira and Edu, the club has a youthful core with a future.

I think the crowd sourcing group got this one right. They've got a bit of helium but things don't go as planned for any team in MLS ever. There will be problems, and while I'm not sure they will be able to handle all of them, I think they've improved enough to keep pace with the rest of the Eastern Conference. It's going to be tight and it's going to be difficult, but I can see it; and if you can see it, you can build it.

Crowd Sourcing Placement

5th place in Eastern Conference; 53 of the 404 5th-place votes (13.1%), but 250 of 404 (61.9%) don't think Philadelphia will make the playoffs.

Win a Free Subscription to MLS Live 2014!

Hey guys and gals. You like Major League Soccer, right? Of course you do! Why else would you be here? And how do you feel about contests? Fun, right? And what would a contest be without a fabulous prize? Well, American Soccer Analysis will be running a prediction contest over the first two weeks of the 2014 MLS season, and the winner will receive a subscription to MLS LIVE for the 2014 season.

Here’s how it will work…

On both Monday, March 3 and Monday, March 10, American Soccer Analysis will post 10 questions about the forthcoming week’s Major League Soccer and CONCACAF Champions League games. Just follow us on Twitter, use your master prognostication abilities, submit your answers using our form, and whoever has the most correct total answers after the second week of games will win a subscription to MLS LIVE for this season. It’s that easy. (Well, except for the tiebreaker, which will be asked in week two in the event that multiple people finish with the same score.)

Do you have to be following @AnalysisEvolved on Twitter to win the prize? Yes. Is this a shameful attempt to drive traffic to our Twitter and consequently this website? No. We feel lots of shame in doing so, but do so we must! Remember, only followers of @AnalysisEvolved on Twitter will be eligible for the subscription to MLS Live 2014.

The MLS LIVE subscription is transferrable, so if you’re already registered for this season, and you win, you can always re-gift it to a friend, or family member, or enemy who has an irrational hate for soccer.

See you on Monday!

Season Preview: Colorado Rapids

If you are a fan of up-and-coming soccer talent, the 2013 Colorado Rapids were a squad who, seemingly out of nowhere, became a must-watch team. While the trend is for MLS teams to rely more heavily upon experienced and highly paid players to bolster their roster, Colorado, perhaps out of necessity, became a team driven by young, inexpensive talent. They used all available means to assemble their roster: trades (Edson Buddle and Nathan Sturgis), the SuperDraft (Deshorn Brown and Dillon Powers), the NASL and USL (Chris Klute and Clint Irwin, respectively), and international signings (Vicente Sanchez and Gabriel Torres). By the time the 2013 season concluded, Oscar Pareja had lead the Rapids to 51 points and the 5^th seed in the Western Conference, a sizeable upgrade over their 37 points accumulated in 2012.

2013 Finish: 14-11-9, 51 points; 45 GF, 38 GA. Fifth place in Western Conference. Lost in Wildcard round.

 

Transactions

Players In			Players Out
Name	Pos		Name	Pos
Marc Burch	D/M	Re-Entry Stage 1	Diego Calderon	D	Loan expired
Marvin Chavez	M	Trade from San Jose	Jaime Castrillon	M	Option declined
Marlon Hairston	M	SuperDraft	Steward Ceus	GK	Option declined
Grant Van De Casteele	D	SuperDraft	Atiba Harris	F	Traded to San Jose
Joe Nasco	GK	Free	Jamie Smith	M	Retired
Jared Watts	M	SuperDraft	Tony Cascio	M	Loaned to Houston
John Berner	GK	SuperDraft	Hendry Thomas	M	Trade to FC Dallas
			Kory Kindle	D	Retired

Roster churn: Colorado returns 76.5% of its 2013 minutes, 9th most in the league.

My Kingdom for a Coach

Let’s start at the top.

Oscar Pareja has moved on to become the head coach of FC Dallas, returning to helm the club where he spent eight seasons as a player. Last year, Pareja assembled a young Rapids team that managed to sneak into the playoffs of the highly competitive Western Conference. Pareja was lauded for his ability to identify and acquire young talent. Though that should come as no surprise, considering that he served as the Director of Player Development for the FC Dallas Youth system from 2007 through 2011, fostering the growth of 11 players who have subsequently signed with the senior team.

When the Rapids were plagued by injury early in the season, Pareja was able to slot Sturgis, Klute, and O’Neill into the lineup, and the team continued to get results. Pareja, as coaches often do, made some questionable decisions over the course of the season. He showed unwavering faith in Atiba Harris all season long despite subpar performances, and took some heat for decisions he made in Colorado’s playoff loss to Seattle. Still, starting a rusty German Mera at centerback is not the same thing as, say, deploying Shalrie Joseph at forward. Pareja made some a personnel choice that did not pay off, but his overall tenure as Rapids head coach was a positive experience, one that has left the Rapids in much better position than when he arrived.

So where do they go from here? Well, we don’t know. With only a few weeks to go before the season, the Rapids have yet to name a head coach. But let’s assume that they will hire Pablo Mastroeni (hey, someone has to make a decision here), following the league-wide trend of elevating young ex-players into the head coaching ranks. Sometimes these new hires pay off (Peter Vermes, Mike Petke, 2012 Ben Olsen), but just as often they yield disappointing results (Curt Onalfo, Jesse Marsch, 2013 Ben Olsen). With no prior coaching experience, it is difficult to predict how Mastroeni will fare as coach of the Rapids. Though Mastro will take over a promising young squad, growing pains should be expected as he develops his own coaching personality.

The Departures

This offseason, Colorado parted ways with only seven players (one of whom, Jamie Smith, will remain with the franchise as an academy coach). The two regular starters who will not be returning this season are Atiba Harris, who played in 29 games last season, logging a stout 2,012 minutes attacking down the right flank, and Hendry Thomas, who started 28 games in defensive midfield for the Rapids. The Rapids balked at Thomas’s request for a DP-level salary, and shipped him off to Dallas in exchange for some allocation money.

The other five players combined to tally just 1,463 total minutes. Tony Cascio, who led that quintet with 530 minutes, will spend the 2014 season on loan in Houston as part of the first intra-league loan in Major League Soccer history.* The three other departing field players—Diego Calderon, Jamie Castrillon, and Smith—were plagued by injuries throughout 2013, and were never able to gain a steady foothold in the starting lineup. The final departed player, goalkeeper Steward Ceus, got his 2013 season off to a promising start… for about 10 minutes. In the 11^th minute of the season opener, David Ferreira sent a long pass toward the Rapids penalty area. Ceus raced out of his penalty area to clear the ball, only to watch helplessly as the ball—and his chances of keeping the starting GK job—soared beyond him. Clint Irwin would start game two, and Ceus would not see another minute for Colorado in the 2014 season.

*No, Matias Laba is not on intra-league loan to Vancouver. He was traded for pipe dreams and promises.

Clint Irwin: Act II

Nothing has changed in goal for Colorado this season. Clint Irwin will enter the season as the starting goalkeeper, with Matt Pickens—currently on trial in Norway—tentatively set to serve as his backup. The Rapids have signed Joe Nasco---who last season helmed the nets for Atlanta---and rookie John Berner, in case Pickens does depart. Irwin finished 12^th in the league in save percentage last season, stopping 69% of shots on target. Though you should take this purely as a descriptive statistic, as it appears that save percentage tells you very little about the quality of a professional goalkeeper. Irwin also failed to crack the top ten in crosses claimed last season, and ranked only 9^th in punches, though strong flank play from the Rapids could mean that Irwin had fewer balls from wide areas to deal with.

One aspect of play where statistics say that Irwin did excel was in his distribution: Irwin completed 73% of his passes—6^th best in the league—despite his average distribution being 48 meters long. For comparison, average length of distribution of keepers in the top 10 accurate passers is only 38.8 meters. His distribution numbers are likely skewed by the fact that Irwin could hammer a 70-yard ball down the right side of the field and know that Atiba Harris (statistically the best aeriel duelist in the league) would get on the end of it (I guess we can look at Jon Busch’s numbers this year and see). Generally though, Irwin’s decision making and positioning, things not yet easily quantifiable, were solid all season; he looked and played like an MLS-caliber goalkeeper, which is impressive enough for a 24-year-old.

Moor: verb (used with object) … 2. to fix firmly; secure

For the sake of this preview, we will assume Mastroeni will not alter Pareja’s preferred formation of 4-3-3/4-2-3-1. Chris Klute and Drew Moor are locks to retain their spots on the back line. Klute will maraud down the wing and make life difficult for opposing midfielders. Last season he led the league in assists among defenders with 7, and was second (behind only Andrew Farrell) in successful take-ons with 39. Moor provides a solid veteran presence at the back, and provides excellent distribution to a team which often lacks patience in the defensive third. Preseason games would indicate that Shane O’Neill will make way at the other center back spot for either Marvell Wynne or Wake Forest rookie Jared Watts.

Despite a strong rookie season for O’Neill, his biggest shortcoming was his ability to assert his physicality in the air. Whereas Moor finished the season with 3.7 aerial duels won per game (8^th in MLS, 5^th among centerbacks), O’Neill had only 1.4 aerials won per game (79^th in MLS, 34^th among centerbacks). Moor won 68% of his aerial duels; O’Neill, 52%. But if you’re the kind of person who prefers their evidence anecdotal, here’s him being completely schooled by Chris Wondolowski (not the most physical specimen himself) on a corner kick. O’Neill should remain a starter, but he will shift to the right side of the field, either in defense or midfield.

Who? What? Where?

The midfield is a much bigger quandary. Hendry Thomas is gone, Nathan Sturgis has spent a considerable amount of time this preseason at right back, and Dillon Powers’ health is in question: not only was he only just cleared to return to game action on February 20 after recovering from a concussion last season, but he is battling tendinitis in his knee. The talent level drops precipitously as you move down the depth chart.

First-round draft pick Marlon Hairston could be the man to replace Thomas. But Thomas is a Premier League and World Cup veteran, who averaged 3.3 tackles per game last season, 7^th in MLS, and Hairston is a 19-year-old who, in spite of his physical gifts, was labeled by one college coach as a “lazy” defender, not the ringing endorsement you want for a player who will be shielding your back line. Nick LaBrocca is another option to replace Thomas, but the 29-year-old Rutgers grad lacks the size and athleticism that either Thomas or Hairston can bring. LaBrocca also has the potential to step in for an injured Powers, but with a glut of forwards on the team, Gabriel Torres might find himself deputizing for Powers in the event that he misses time, playing a more direct role in the offense (and leaving Edson Buddle as the center forward).

The Designated Player and Deshorn

If and when Powers returns to full health, Torres will spearhead the attack for Colorado. The first designated player in Rapids history, Torres was signed in August of last season, and immediately demonstrated his value. He notched 3 goals and 1 assist on 15 shots in 507 minutes. The shot total is low for a DP level striker, but so is the sample size. Still, flashes of brilliance like this make it difficult for Rapids fans to keep their expectations tempered.

Deshorn Brown will start to the left of the center forward, in a more advanced role than the typical wide player in a 4-2-3-1. This is because Brown’s speed and size far outshine his technical skills. Last season, Brown notched 10 goals, solid enough on its own, but it should be noted that of the 18 players who scored 10 goals or more last season, Brown had the lowest scoring chance percentage, converting a mere 10.3% of his shots. Though that seems like bad news on the surface (and it may be that Brown isn’t a crack finisher), it comes with a big silver lining.Finishing rates are less predictive of yearly success than Expected Goals, which are determined by number and location of shots taken.

On the right, the Rapids have a choice between Marvin Chavez and Vicente Sanchez, two left-footed players who bring different assets to the table. Chavez is a versatile player who has the speed to stretch the defensive line (as he did with his time in Dallas) and an accurate cross that allows him to play as a more conventional midfielder (as he did in his 12-assist season with San Jose in 2012). Sanchez, who spent most of his career in Mexico, is a more technically savvy (and to be fair to Chavez, slower) player, who in his limited time with Colorado last season provided some of the cerebral play that was often missing from the lineup.

The Prediction

Last year, Colorado’s depth enabled them to overcome a spate of injuries and make the playoffs, bringing a new generation of players to the league’s attention. This year, without any wholesale roster changes, those same players will bear the weight of expectations of a franchise. New coach or not, progress will be expected from this young team, and it will be interesting to see how they will fare in the 2014 season.

Crowdsourcing Results

The readers of American Soccer Analysis don’t seem to think that Colorado will make any progress this season. The plurality (20.2%) of our 406 voters think that the Rapids will drop to 6th place in the Western Conference, with the vast majority (78.1%) anticipating them to finish in the 5^th-to-8^th-place range.

Season Preview: New England Revolution

A franchise empathetic to the Buffalo Bills, Atlanta Braves, and every team that chased the Chicago Bulls in the 90's, the Revs have shown over their 16-year history in the league that they are perpetual contenders and forever runners-up---a key member of the 'almost was there' club. That was harsh, but I don't mean to be. The club, with just a little bit of support from Robert Kraft, could have been---and still could be---a super power in MLS. The trio of Clint Dempsey, Shalrie Joseph, and Steve Ralston, and then the often forgotten (outside of New England) prowess of Taylor Twellman dominated the mid 00's period of MLS, and New England reached the MLS Cup finals on four different occasions between 2002 and 2007. Now, after a couple of down years, the franchise has reloaded and found itself a new era of young up-and-comers a decade later. 2013 Review: 51 Points, 3rd in the Eastern Conference, lost to Sporting Kansas City in Conference Semis

Player Added	Position	Acquired from:	Player Lost	Position	To
Paulo DelPiccolo	M	Waiver Draft	Chad Barrett	F	Option Declined
Brad Knighton	GK	Trade (Vancouver)	Ryan Guy	M	Option Declined
Charlie Davies	F	Free (Randers)	Tyler Polak	D	Option Declined
Steve Neumann	M/F	SuperDraft	Matt Reis	GK	Retired
Patrick Mullins	F	SuperDraft	Clyde Simms	M	Option Declined
Teal Bunbury	F	Trade (Kansas City)	Juan Toja	M	Option Declined
Jossimar Sanchez	D	Supplemental Draft	Bilal Duckett	D	Waived
Daigo Kobayashi	M	Trade (Vancouver)	Matt Horth	F	Waived
Alec Sundly	M	SuperDraft	Gabe Latigue	M	Waived
			Juan Agudelo	F	Out of Contract

2013 opened for the Revs with expectations of justhoping to make the Wildcard round. Really, anything better than finishing above Toronto was the end goal, and while maybe I'm slightly exaggerating the situation a bit, I don't think many thought they would finish 3rd in the East. Jay Heaps definitely sat upon a seat of growing embers, and fans were gradually getting more and more anxious to see progression from their second-year manager after replacing long-term icon Steve Nicol.

2013 will be remembered for many things across MLS, but Revs fans will, perhaps paradoxically, be hard-pressed to think of many good things outside the breakout year of teenager Diego Fagundez---who is being heralded as the foundation of many great, wonderful scoring-type things for the Revs in the future, and one of the future stars of MLS --- and the addition of Defender of the Year Jose Goncalves. Let me be one of the first to throw that "it may be a bit premature" out there. Fagundez is a great talent, but it's probably a bit unfair to place such expectations on an 18-year-old at this point. Scoring 13 goals at that age is going to get you attention, but doesn't guarantee stardom.

While it's been pointed out that his goal tally was impressive--- partly because it was fifth in the league and not inflated by penalty kicks---I'm not yet convinced that he's bound for all the glory people think. In fact, I'd wager that he won't likely equal his tally from last season for a couple of reasons.

A) An observance I've made over the last few days suggests that he creates many of his own shots at the goal off the dribble. I'm not sure that if he continues this trend he can be as successful.

B)  He creates below-average shots-per-90 minutes rates. Among the top 50 goal scorers, the average shots-per-90 is roughly 2.6. Fagundez averages a paltry 2.0 in comparison.

C) Over half those chances (52%) he fired off hit the target (29 of his 55 shots). While that is above-average, it may be a less-stable metric year-to-year, as is finishing rate. He needs to continue to create a high volume of chances before I'm ready to get on the bandwagon.

Now, there is some hope. The addition of Teal Bunbury gives the Revs someone who is going to take shots at a better-than-league-average clip. This could take some of the pressure off Fagundez, allowing him to be slippery with his electric speed, getting into dangerous locations, and keeping his finishing rate high.

There is also the case that New England has quite the creative midfield core, which only got deeper this week with the addition of Daigo Kobayashi. Adding him to the grouping of Kelyn Rowe and Lee Nguyen is rather intimidating and could help the young attacking midfielder, as he may not have to create so many shots for himself.

I'm not trying to be a wet blanket and 'poo poo' everyone that is drinking the Fagundez Kool-Aid. The youngster is an incredible talent, both on and off the ball, and he'll probably be a large contributing factor to why I watch so many Rev games this year. I do think there could be some undue pressure on him at this stage in his career, and it's crazy to think this club is going to live and die with him.

Outside of Fagundez, the Revs have been stock piling young and exciting talents, such as the aforementioned Rowe, with Andrew Farrell, Scott Caldwell  and even Dimitry Imbongo. They're a young team that has a lot of helium at this stage. Add to it the top-scoring collegiate talents of Patrick Mullins and lesser heralded (yet equally exciting) Steve Neumann, with the recently acquired Bunbury, and maybe the long-awaited break out season of Jerry Bengston--who seems to save all his goals for the Honduras national team---and you realize 'holy crap' they've got weapons in abundance. Truth is, they shouldn't struggle to find the back of the net this year.

A good indicator for their offensive success last year was, of course, Chris Gluck's Possession with Purpose (PWP Index) stat that ranks them in the upper half (9th) in MLS and 4th among their Eastern conference foes. The loss of Juan Agudelo is a bit disappointing to some of their supporters and certainly with their front office that seemed pretty determined to keep him around against all odds. But with the quality and quantity of the youth available, as well as the off-season additions, this club could very well take a step forward in the attack.

The real question for me is going to be the defense. Jose Goncalves came out of pretty much nowhere to have a lights out season and win defensive player of year honors for MLS. It's not so much a question of whether he'll regress so much as I wonder what the likelihood of the defense as a whole regressing.

The backline should remain, for all intents and purposes, intact from last year. The big question is whether we'll see Bobby Shuttleworth or Brad Knighton between the pipes as a goal keeper. This is an entirely different conversation, and I want to set it aside of the time being. The defense wasn't necessarily great so much as it was a bit lucky in some cases. Sure their PDO as a whole is under the 100 mark, indicating that they have actually gotten a bit unlucky as a whole, but they earned just 95 percent of the shot totals of their opponents, and their overall xGD was negative, which both imply that they not only surrendered more shots than they created but also surrendered shots in more advantageous locations for the opposition. Neither are good things, and both are critical points for the defense. Now those numbers don't tell us that New England will regress or that they will certainly allow more goals than what they last year, but simply what they did produce was not as we expected and that they played above what they likely should have.

Now, as for the Shuttleworth vs. Knighton---WWE Royal Rumble face off---I'm a bit torn. Personally, I know Matt Reis had been there for a decade, but Shuttleworth was---in my opinion---a good keeper, and there was an argument for letting him stay in the net after Reis returned from injury. Now with Reis retired and the Revolution acquiring Knighton, it becomes an interesting battle. Our early advanced indications point to the fact that Brad Knighton, despite only seeing 540 minutes, was a better keeper. Now those numbers are only indicators, and they do come with a clear set of caveats. Neither keeper has enough empirical evidence that one is necessarily better than the other. That said, I expect that Brad Knighton will win the job, and his performances will stick right in and around what we thought of Matt Reis.

Overall I could see really two vastly different scenarios playing out with New England. The first is that they come out like gangbusters. Their defense holds, the youngsters take another step forward, and they overtake New York, who I believe may be somewhat overrated, and possibly even Sporting Kansas City (don't tell Matthias I said that), staying in contention for a supporters shield for most of the year.

The other side is that, with all the significant improvements that other clubs  have made compounded with some struggles by the a young core, it could leave the team in an early hole. Early disappointing results could very well culminate in them missing the playoffs entirely.

The East going to be a dog fight, more so than what the Western Conference is thought to be. Because of that, clubs such as Toronto FC, Chicago, Houston, D.C. United and New England are all fighting for the last three spots, assuming that New York and Sporting play up to their potential. Though, given the strange inconsistencies of both of those franchises, anything remains possible. Youth lends itself to variability, making New England's projection hard to pin down.

Crowdsourcing Results

New England received a wide range of votes, earning at least 10% of all votes for every placement between 4th and 10th in the Eastern conference. Overall, just 34.4% of voters felt that New England was a playoff team.

ASA Podcast: XXXVIII on Turkish Geography, #WTFc, and Uses of Data

This week Matthias and Drew do a quick pod covering the announced 23-man roster for the USMNT's game vs. Ukraine in Cypress, discussing TFC and the trade of Matias Laba to Vancouver, and closing with a discussion of how data analysis can be used in different contexts. [audio http://americansocceranalysis.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/asa-podcast-xxxviii1.mp3]