Shot Limiting: Bringing the heat (maps)

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Earlier this year, I decided the world needed a 30 page paper on shot limiting in MLS. Of course, the powers that be found this to be a tad self indulgent, and more accurately, sad that I had the time to do such a thing. They ended up talking me down to a slightly more readable 20 pages, which can be read here.

But my art will not be compromised, gosh darnit! There is still so much to be learned about this topic, and, more to the point, my obsession hadn’t been quenched. Several questions were raised within the paper that I simply didn’t have the necessary data to explore.

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Goalkeepers: Under Attack!

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There’s an interesting movement happening in MLS with officiating towards goalkeeping. Wherever you stand on the quality of MLS referees, you can’t argue that they’re quick to call penalties, whether it’s on a defender or a goalkeeper. Tim Froh captured a good quote from an international player on the differences between playing in MLS versus playing back home in Argentina. So let’s take a look at what’s happening in MLS and where it could be going.

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Weekend Kickoff: Round 23

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Last week, I talked about the tiers of MLS and teams that are going to be the ones to watch as we close out this season. Since there is no relegation (and that is not a statement that implies I'm either for or against it), wading through the rest of the season as a Chicago Fire or Colorado Rapids supporter could be a burdensome and/or underwhelming task. That said, there are a few things to watch for from MLS as a whole as we race towards the end of the season.

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July P Score: Reactive Games Lead to Fewer Goals

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Change was good for some teams in July and not for others. FC Dallas and Colorado Rapids had perfect months while playing more proactively than earlier in the season. Meanwhile, Orlando City SC and Seattle Sounders had difficult months and were more reactive than they had ever been.

Below is the latest P Score table. Orlando still maintains their top spot, but Montreal caught up by being the most proactive team in July. This month I added each team’s opponent's P Score. Interestingly but not surprisingly, teams play more reactively against the New York Red Bulls and Sporting Kansas City.

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How DC United continues to beat the odds

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MLS will not be a top league until its coaches find better ways to connect projection metrics to tactical changes. Ben Olsen is showing he may be on the right track. The more data that is collected on variables such as game variability, individual player contributions and spatial frequency, the more information there is to digest and to affect playing, teaching and coaching. Therefore the issue lies in the translation of such data into meaningful, impactful resolutions that can be measured by on-field progress.

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Weekend Kickoff

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In most sports after an All-Star game, the remaining portion of the schedule is called the “second half of the season.” But with the manner in which Major League Soccer administers it's schedule and the general accumulation of games that are played during that time period,. I look at it slightly different. I look at pre-All-Star game as the first act, the All-Star game is intermission, and post All-Star is the second act.

In other words, Soccer is straight drama. The great Bill Shakespeare once said:

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Value Available vs Value on Field: Evaluating MLS Salary Cap Management

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Value Available vs Value on Field: Evaluating MLS Salary Cap Management

This post sets out to use expansion side Orlando City as an example of how value in MLS can be calculated, and how a teams’ management of the salary cap can be scrutinized using a simple visualization.

With the release of the salary cap last week there are a hundred and one things I want to do with this data. The first idea is something that myself and Ben Torvaney thought of when discussing what we would do if we had the salary data of the Premier League and other European leagues if it was available like it is in MLS (fun topic of conversation I know). Evidently, that data is unlikely to ever be released for any of the big leagues, so MLS is the only league these ideas can be applied to.

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Sizing up the Silva for Saborio swap

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Last week, the Alvaro Saborio for Luis Silva trade kind of took the league by surprise. Nobody saw this coming, but after the dust settled this trade makes perfect sense for both parties involved. For DC, they give up a promising youngster for a proven goal scorer they badly need. For Real Salt Lake, they pick up an up and coming midfielder who can help rebuild an aging RSL side.

But for United, this is a move to win now and to take advantage of their favorable table positioning to make a serious run for the Supporter's Shield in a weaker Eastern Conference and a possible deep run for the MLS Cup too. It's a "win now or never" kind of mentality and it's one that will most likely pay off.

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Introducing MLS ELO Ratings

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Today I'm excited to debut my MLS Elo Ratings. The Elo Rating system itself was originally invented by Arpad Elo to rate chess players more effectively. It's not a perfect system for soccer, as the game is more fluid and random than chess, but it's a good indicator of under/over performance than basic stats alone provide. 

Elo is a zero sum system, meaning that sides are allocated equal points depending on the outcome of a game. It rewards more points to teams who cause upsets - so when the Chicago Fire beat the Seattle Sounders they were awarded a large number of points, and the same number of points were taken away from Seattle. 

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USMNT 1-2 Jamaica: The Reggae Boyz clear the dance floor

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Hey U.S. fans, look on the bright side. We get an extra soccer game this fall! The USMNT will be in a one game playoff against either Mexico or Jamaica for the privilege of representing CONCACAF in the 2017 Confederations Cup. That bit of fun was brought to you by a loss of stunning proportion to Jamaica. The U.S. gave up two goals in five minutes off of set pieces in the first half and couldn’t mount a useful attack against a determined Jamaican defense. The 2-1 loss, the first to a Caribbean side on U.S. soil since 1968, will sting for a long time, especially for yours truly who was looking forward to going to the Gold Cup Final to watch the U.S. with his son. Not all stories have Hollywood endings. And certainly sports wouldn’t be sports without the heartbreak.

This game was a perfect example of why soccer statistics can sometimes lie. If you didn’t watch the game and just looked at the box score you might think that the U.S. was simply unlucky. They held 60% of the possession and completed 82% of their passes. They outshot the Jamaicans 20-10 and put 7 more shots on goal (10-3). The U.S. won the expected goal battle by a score of 2.3.-1.0, but looked up at the scoreboard at the end and saw the final score was actually reversed.

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