Does Finishing Skill matter in MLS?

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If you’ve ever played FIFA, you’ve probably noted the importance of a forward’s “finishing” rating to how often they finish their chances. That’s how it works in the video game, but is “finishing” a real life skill significant enough to make an impact in a forward’s goal scoring tally?

While I have yet to meet a data analyst who thinks that “finishing skill” is as relevant to goal scoring as most soccer fans tend to believe, there doesn’t seem to be a consensus in terms of whether “finishing” is a repeatable skill. In other words, can forwards depend on a superior ability to convert chances year to year?

With forwards like Gyasi Zardes (16 goals in 2014) and Cyle Larin (17 goals in 2015) bursting onto the scene by converting a high percentage of their chances on goal, the question within MLS is as important as ever. Are these players scoring so many goals because of some underlying finishing skill, or are their unusually finishing rates something closer to statistical noise?

Is finishing a skill of any importance within MLS?

One important tool we can use for answering such a question is to study discrepancies in expected goals (xG) data. Since the expected goals model is built around league averages of conversion, if finishing were a skill of any statistical note we would see a consistent out-performance of the model by certain shooters who are highly skilled finishers. But before we get into repeatability for individuals, I’d like to use goals minus expected goals (G-xG) data to look at the question in much broader strokes.

More after the jump.

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Jurgen Klinsmann and the Guatemala Paradox

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The frustration with the state of the United States Men’s soccer team is at a new peak in the Jurgen Klinsmann era. After a disastrous second half of 2015 which saw them suffer historic losses to Jamaica and Panama in the Gold Cup followed by an extra time loss to rival Mexico, the Federation was hoping 2016 was a new beginning. But following another tragedy against Guatemala in World Cup qualifying on Friday, the U.S. has now failed to win its last four competitive matches where the talent gap was not obscene (apologies to St. Vincent and the Grenadines). The demons from last year are still lurking it appears. But to what can we attribute those demons?

Is it Klinsmann or the players?

What those demons are is the subject of much debate. Many claim that Klinsmann himself is the problem as questions surrounding his tactics, player selection and the positions he prefers for those players are appropriately criticized. After promises of progressing the U.S. style of play to compete with the more proactive national teams, Klinsmann has employed a more pragmatic reactive approach since before the World Cup. He likely regrets his promise as he’s since been unable to collect a midfield with enough talent to play a possession oriented style of soccer. When he trots Alejandro Bedoya and DeAndre Yedlin out to the wings, away from their preferred positions, in a World Cup qualifier he can't be expecting a cohesive midfield performance. Nor should the fans. But the team did waste too many balls in the final third attempting high risk passes. Do we blame the tactics, the players or both?

More after the jump.

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Pass Completion Rate: Does it Really Matter?

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During week two of the MLS season Orlando City SC completed 87% of their passes on their way to a 1-1 draw with Chicago. At the other end of the spectrum, D.C. United completed just 63% of their passes. They earned the same result with a 0-0 tie at New England. Hmmmm. What's that all about? United failed to complete more than a third of their passes while Orlando only failed once in eight attempts. Is there anything to take away from that very wide range of pass completion rates?

To better understand pass completion rates let's take a quick look at the 2015 season, where there is a bigger sample size. Orlando SC wasn't too far off of last year's pass completion single game high, which was 87.9% by the New York Red Bulls. The low of the season was 56.6% by Sporting Kansas City. Looking at the New York Red Bulls performance reveals that they played a lot of short passes on the ground. They attempted 653 passes in that game and only 41 of them were longer than 25 yards. Only 3% of those passes were attempted off of a players head. Contrast that with Sporting Kansas City who attempted 101 passes longer than 25 yards, over 36% of their attempts. They also used their respective heads to make the pass 12% of the time. Longer passes and passes off the head are obviously more difficult to complete. Could it simply be the type of passes that drive the difference?

Read more after the jump.

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Goal differential and making the MLS Playoffs

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Note: This chart originally appeared on BrotherlyGame for a Philadelphia Union preview but I thought this community might like to see the relationship between goals and making the playoffs.

We know the league's proud tradition of parity, but did you ever think that a mere four goals could increase a team's chances of making the playoffs by 75%? That apparently has been the case over the last four MLS seasons. The chart below shows the relationship between goals scored, goals conceded and probability of making the playoffs. 

Pretty graphs after the jump.

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MLS Goalkeepers: Predictions for the 2016 Season

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It’s March and we all know what that means: every writer across the nation is baking up their hottest takes to ultimately not be held accountable at the end of the season. Well ASA is allowing me to put their upstanding reputation on the line with five predictions for MLS’s gloved men heading into the 2016 season. Make sure to bookmark this post so you can link it to everyone at ASA in eight months and give us a boost in hits come November!

1. Luis Robles and David Ousted will duke it out for Goalkeeper of the Year again - If there’s one thing that has proven consistent with the award, the goalkeeper on the team who wins their conference has a great shot of winning the award. Dating back to when the league split to two conferences, ten of the fourteen years GOTY winners have gone to goalkeepers whose teams finished first in their conference. This means Tim Melia (SKC) and Clint Irwin (Toronto) also have a decent shot but Robles and Ousted are the best bets. It’s a rare sight to see either goalkeeper costing their team points in a game and both of their teams are looking to challenge for the Supporters’ Shield again.

Four more predictions after the jump.

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2016 ASA Season Previews: Every Dang One of Them!

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In preparation for First Kick we've been writing two team previews per day for the last two weeks. Going in reverse order of 2015 finish, ASA and our (very) small band of writers have published 20 articles, covering each team's 2015 season, their offseason changes, and their prospects for 2016. If you haven't read them all yet, AND WE KNOW YOU HAVEN'T, then you can catch up here.

Eastern Conference

Chicago Fire by Tom Worville
Philadelphia Union by Coleman Larned
New York City FC by Drew Olsen
Orlando City SC by Kevin Minkus
Toronto FC by Jason Poon
New England Revolution by Sean Steffen
DC United by Drew Olsen
Montreal Impact by Benjamin Harrison
New York Red Bulls by Harrison Crow
Columbus Crew by Jared Young

Western Conference

Colorado Rapids by Drew Olsen
Real Salt Lake by Coleman Larned
Houston Dynamo by Harrison Crow
San Jose Earthquakes by Sean Steffen
Sporting Kansas City by Kevin Minkus
Los Angeles Galaxy by Sean Steffen
Seattle Sounders by Harrison Crow
Vancouver Whitecaps by Benjamin Harrison
FC Dallas by Jason Poon
Portland Timbers by Drew Olsen

2016 ASA PREVIEW: PORTLAND TIMBERS

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Coming off of an epic end-of-season run that ended in the Timbers hoisting the first trophy in the club’s 40 year history, expectations are high among the Rose City faithful. While significant changes aren’t usually expected for a championship winning side, Portland has seen quite a few. If everything falls into place for the new arrivals, the team can stay healthy, and Caleb Porter’s patented single-pivot midfield continues to unlock defenses, this club could join Houston, Los Angeles and DC United as the only teams to ever repeat as champs. If all the pieces don’t click, we could see a repeat of the 2014 season when the club’s lofty preseason expectations were met with a finish outside of the playoffs.

2015 in review

The best team during the long MLS season doesn’t usually win the playoffs, and last year was no exception. If you consider the full length of the season, the Red Bulls and FC Dallas were unquestionably the best teams in their respective conferences. And while the Supporter’s Shield is nothing to shake an energy drink at, it’s certainly not the most coveted prize.

So if the Timbers weren’t the best team in MLS last year; they were the best team in MLS when it mattered. With three games remaining in their season and daunting road games in Salt Lake City and L.A. ahead of them, our own playoff odds gave them a less than 50% chance to make the playoffs. After a great run of results in the spring, it looked again like their status was “same as it ever was” and the team was doomed to just miss the playoffs for a second season in a row.

More on the epic run to the cup after the jump.

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2016 ASA PREVIEW: COLUMBUS CREW

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The Crew played for the MLS Cup on their home soil last year only to fall short to the Portland Timbers, and while deep playoff runs always go hand in hand with a bit of good fortune, Columbus fans have every reason to believe their team will challenge again for this year’s title. Every player who started in the MLS Cup Final returned to the team and they added players, primarily on defense, where they needed help. Despite the stability the Crew will need great performances in three key areas to maintain their status as Kings of the East.

The Kamara Crew

The Columbus Crew’s biggest signing this offseason was locking down the return of the King of Scorers Kei Kamara to a long term deal. Kamara’s 22 goals last season was tied for the league lead and his physical presence up top sets the tone for the rest of the team. His long public and ultimately successful negotiation this offseason was proof that top players do have leverage and ability to loosen the very tight purse strings of the MLS single-entity system. The Crew will need another top flight performance from Kamara to keep their edge.

The biggest offensive signing of the offseason was fellow Sierra Leonean and Norwegian National Ola Kamara. Owner of 28 goals in his last three seasons in Norway and Austria, Kamara adds depth both up top and on the wings. 

The Kings of the Cross after the jump.

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2016 ASA PREVIEW: NEW YORK RED BULLS

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The Red Bulls have consistently been a team stuck in disarray and chaos. They have a front office that has been raked over the coals time and again for choices that were just plain bewildering. Take all of that and couple it with a foreign ownership group/organization that seemingly feels detatched all the time. Yet there has probably been no better period in the Red Bulls 20-year history. With two Supporter Shields in three seasons and a team that position for position is ready to compete for another, things could get exciting, folks.

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves... More after the jump.

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2016 ASA PREVIEW: FC DALLAS

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The 2015 campaign was a mixed bag for FC Dallas. On one hand, we saw a young club defy the odds and make a serious claim to be trophy contenders, matching New York Red Bulls on points for the Supporter's Shield only to lose out on goal differential. Then in the playoffs, the Hoops made a strong run, knocking off Seattle in penalties in the semi-finals, but ultimately withered under the pressure of the Portland Timbers in the Conference Finals. In both instances, real, actual silverware was a realistic possibility but ultimately the club fell short and the trophy barren run continues to haunt this franchise. (Last and only significant trophy was the 1997 Open Cup.)

While the club failed to claim any silverware, there were plenty of significant positives from their 2015 campaign that Oscar Pareja and company hope to build on for 2016. FC Dallas is known to have one of the best academies in MLS, which has regularly promoted and integrated academy graduates into the first time. Most notable was the emergence of both El Tri U-23 starting keeper Jesse Gonzalez, who wrestled the starting position from two MLS veterans (Dan Kennedy and Chris Seitz) and USMNT prospect Kellyn Acosta in the midfield. The academy's shining moment was on Sunday, September 6 at Mapfre Stadium against the Columbus Crew when Pareja started four homegrowns across the midfield (Alex Zendejas, Acosta, Victor Ulloa and Coy Craft) along with Gonzalez in net and produced a stunning 3-0 road win.

A look at the goalkeepers after the jump.

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