Week 8: My PWP Pick List

Two weeks in and my PWP-Pick-List is doing pretty well: If you tracked my picks from last week I nailed the wins by Seattle, Real Salt Lake, Sporting, FC Dallas, and the two draws - Vancouver v LA Galaxy and Chicago v New England.  That's 5 for 9 in my first week (Week 6) and 6 for 10 in my second week (Week 7).

With that said, and if you've read my latest article on Expected Wins, (XpW) you'll know that I will no longer be picking draws as an outcome - granted they will happen, but since no team really goes into a game expected a draw then my picks won't either.

For now XpW won't be part of my PWP-Pick-List.  Each team has only played 5-7 games so far, and that's not enough individual sample points to support a reasonable correlation (R2) that has relevance.  Figure by Week 17 I'll start to include the R2 for each team (home and away games) and then by Week 24 I will start to separate out the R2 for Home games versus Away games.

For now my source in this effort is strictly my subjective view on the objective data that I collect as part of my Possession with Purpose analysis.

To begin, your Week 8 picks:

New York Red Bulls hosting Houston Dynamo:  This is a hard call; Houston has David Horst back but Sarkodie is missing due to that red card last weekend.  It seems to me that when all four of the back-four are in and playing this team is really tough to beat.  That being said the Red Bulls got two goals against an improving Union side last week and they don't have a short week to prepare like Houston.  Bottom line here is I see New York winning this game.

Seattle at home to Colorado:  Dempsey didn't score against Chivas but he didn't need to - instead he began to show his value in creating space and assisting others in scoring goals.  That additional value adds tremendous strength to the Sounders attack.  On the other hand, Colorado is no slouch when it comes to winning away games so this will be a huge test to the Seattle back-four.  Can they contain Brown?  I think so and Seattle wins...  though I wouldn't be surprised to see this game end 2-1 or 3-2 given the weaker center with the Seattle back-four.

Philadelphia travels to Montreal:  In short - I simply don't see Montreal winning, or even getting a draw at home against a Union side that probably could have done better this past weekend. The Impact have one of the poorest performing teams on both sides of the ball, and Klopas (imo) simply runs an archaic (direct attacking) system that no longer belongs in the MLS - more mounting losses for Monreal, and by the summer transfer window I could see Klopas being given the heave-ho.  Union win...

DC United entertain FC Dallas:  A resurgent DC United with a quality striking partnership of Johnson and Espindola is working well as Kitchen runs the single pivot.  A great matchup where DC United is likely to have more of the possession.  That said Diaz and the creative midfield for Dallas can win this one and keep their strong start alive.  If I would bet on a draw it would be this one but I think the edge goes to Dallas.  IF DC United win this one then the Eastern Conference really needs to be considered about the positive confidence they'll gain with three points.  If there was a game to be played on National TV this next weekend this would be a good one.

Columbus at home to New York:  A short rest for the Red Bulls against a well rested Crew that are probably disappointed they didn't take three points from DC United.  I think defense wins this game and in my view the defense for Columbus is better than what New York offers.  Crew win...

Sporting KC travel to New England:  The team formerly known as the wizards offered some offensive magic against a fast fading Montreal this past week and the Revolution will need to be in fine fiddle to control the volume of successful crosses I'd expect to see this game.  Can the New England defense hold and will the ability of the KC back-four be enough to contain a Revolution side who have struggled at times to score this season.  All told I'm not quite sure - I'd like to offer this as a draw as well but I think the improving attack, to go along with the best defense in MLS, gives Sporting the edge.  I won't always pick Sporting to win every game this year, and against some Western Conference teams I won't, but for now SKC wins.

Real Salt Lake at home to Vancouver:  Real continue to show quality versus quantity and they also continue to move up the ladder in my Composite PWP.  Vancouver had two very tough games against LA back to back and the wicked attack (with a healthy Plata) won't get any easier in Rio Tinto.  Real Salt Lake wins...

San Jose versus Chivas:  The Earthquakes have yet to win a game this year and no better opportunity to do that than this week.  Their continued use of crossing as a prime source for creating goal scoring opportunities should get them that three points provided Torres can be controlled in attack.  He's shown an ability to score as well so this one probably doesn't see either team getting a clean sheet but I do think the Earthquakes take three.

Portland travels to Houston:  Are the cards right for the Timbers to get their first three points?  We saw Nanchoff come on as a late sub and Valeri, along with Kalif and others, seemed to struggle with their passing accuracy.  Having vision and accuracy in tight spaces is what separated the Timbers last year from the Timbers this year.  That and a healthy, well communicating back-four led by Ricketts.  That being said Houston are coming into this game on short rest and Kinnear will want his players to stamp their irritating level of physical play early on.  This is likely to be a VERY physical game for both teams but the edge for the Timbers needs to be real sharp as they are simply fed up with not winning.  I think the Timbers find the back of the net and win.  If it's Urruti great; but in this game, Valeri needs to score.

All for now and not an easy thing for me to ignore picking draws - but I remain steadfastly stubborn and stubbornly steadfast that teams don't enter games with an intent to get one point - so in my picks I won't either.

Best, Chris

Expected Wins in MLS

Over the two and a half years I've been developing Possession with Purpose you've heard me go on about this game not just being about scoring goals it's about winning.  I don't mean that in the sense that you don't need to score goals to win; you do.  But what separates winning from losing statistics wise?  And if there is separation, what is it, and what value does it bring?

I'm not sure I have 'the' answers but I do have 'some' answers...

To begin here are the 7 primary data points I collect and calculate ratios with in my PWP Six Step Process analysis:

1. Passes Attempted Entire Pitch
2. Passes Completed Entire Pitch
3. Passes Attempted Final Third
4. Passes Completed Final Third
5. Shots Taken
6. Shots on Goal
7. Goals Scored

I collect these data points for every team, for every game; all 646 from last year and up to 102 (61 Games) so far this year.

In looking at the data this year the below diagram offers up the averages of those 7 data points, for all games, up to the end of Week 6. 

The blue bar is the overall Average for all games regardless of points earned, the green bar is the Average for all games where teams took three points, the amber bar is the Average where teams took one point, and the red bar is the Average where teams got nil-pwa.  

Facts as they exist today after 102 games in 2014:

The table just beneath the bar graph indicates the raw numbers (averages); for example the average Successful passes for teams that lose (in the Final Third) is 73.13; their average Shots taken is 13.39; their average Shots on goal is 4.10 and their average Goals scored is .58.

Here are the percentages derived by comparing the relationship of each of these points(part of my PWP analysis) working left to right:

• Teams that win average 50.30% Possession versus teams that lose average 49.70% Possession.
• Teams that win average 76% Passing Accuracy across the Entire Pitch. /// teams that lose average 74% Passing Accuracy across the Entire Pitch.
• Teams that win average 71% Passing Accuracy in the Final Third. /// teams that lose average 64% Passing Accuracy in the Final Third.
• Teams that win average 22% of all their Passes Attempted in the Final Third /// teams that lose average 25% of all their Passes Attempted in the Final Third.
• Teams that win average 17% Shots Taken vs Completed Passes in the Final Third. /// teams that lose average 18% Shots Taken vs Completed Passes in the Final Third.
• Teams that win average 40% Shots on Goal vs Shots Taken. /// teams that lose average 31% Shots on Goal vs Shots Taken.
• Teams that win average 45% Goals Scored vs Shots on Goal. /// teams that lose average 14% Goals Scored vs Shots on Goal.

Observations:

While 2% difference in overall Passing Accuracy might not mean much it should be noted as a reasonable indicator on how well a teams' Passing Accuracy will be in penetrating the Final Third.

That 2% difference translates this way.  When a team makes 500 pass attempts.  76% * 500 Passes equals = 380 Completed Passes.  74% * 500 Passes equals 370 Completed Passes.

Any one of those unsuccessful passes could be the pass that gets you that goal or leads to the Opponent making an interception (quick counter) that gets them a goal.

Perhaps it is easier to understand why some coaches say control of the game and possession adds value?  Those teams that are more accurate in their overall passing are more likely to win.

In looking at Passing Accuracy within the Final Third there is a clear difference between winners and losers; winning teams are 9% better in Passing Accuracy within the Final Third... this is not about volume of passes - it's about the accuracy of those passes.

To put that into perspective say a team attempts 100 passes in the Final Third; 71 of those passes (71%) are successful for the winning team whereas  only 64 (64%) are successful for the losing team.

That difference of 7 (within the tight confines of the Final Third) could make a BIG difference; those 7 extra completed passes could be 7 through-balls, key passes, or crosses that lead to a goal versus no goal.

Note that losing teams take more shots (on average) per pass completed (18%) than teams that win (17%).

Is that an indicator that the less effective team is trying to compensate for lower skill levels/overall passing accuracy by increasing their shots taken totals?  I think so.

And when looking at the ability of a winning team to put a shot taken on goal (a more accurate shot) the winning teams do that 9% better than losing teams.

And that initial accuracy then translates to a huge, if not inordinately large, difference between a team that wins versus loses; 45% of shots on goal are goals scored for winners versus 14% for losers.

Now for the second diagram and the R2 for the overall average, wins, draws, and losses with the backdrop lines being the real numbers for all 102 games this year..

The "x and y" axis represent the same things as they did in the first diagram.  The Blue, Green, Yellow and Red lines represent the averages 'in trend-line format' seen in the above diagram with their corresponding exponential correlations.  

I selected the Exponential Relationship as opposed to a Linear Relationship because I think it best represents the drop off in passes (in total) versus those just within the Final Third; the R2 will remain the same regardless.

Observations:

First off - all those lines are the 102 games worth of data that populate the diagram - it is that data that also formed the 'averages' for the first diagram...

That tight difference in R2 means there is a very tight margin of error between winning, losing and getting a draw; and if you've watched a game you know a single mistake can cost you three points.

However tight, there is a difference between the R2 for winning teams versus losing teams.  Is that statistical difference associated with those percentage differences indicated in the first diagram?

I think so, and while Possession (itself) is not "the" prime indicator on whether a team wins or loses it is "an" indicator that should be considered, when viewing overall passing accuracy within and outside the Final Third.

Perhaps the TV pundits will take more time to show better graphics where the Final Third data (in possession percentage) is separated out from the overall possession data?

Perhaps another view that may be helpful to others is the 'space available' that gets leveraged in creating that goal scoring opportunity?

I don't know if this data is representative for teams in Europe - but the data certainly supports that view for teams in Major League Soccer.

To reinforce the End State (winning) from a different viewpoint. 

Last year the top five teams in volume of shots taken versus passes completed in the Final Third were Chicago, (26%), Philadelphia (26%), FC Dallas (26%), Montreal (25%) and Columbus (23%).

Only one of those teams made the MLS Playoffs - Montreal.

This year the top three teams with the highest volume of shots taken versus passes completed in the Final Third are Montreal (28%), Chicago (28%) and San Jose (26%); two of those three teams are the current bottom dwellers in the Eastern and Western Conferences.

In all this I've not talked anything about defensive play... more later this year on how teams perform without the ball with specific focus on defensive efforts (collectively and by individual defensive action) within the Final Third.

For now I offer these questions:

• Do you think teams that defend better do so as a team (collectively) or is it individual actions like clearances, tackles, interceptions or recoveries that stand alone?
• And does the general formation they play to (advertised as 'the formation' in the MLS recaps) show results differently in how a defense performs?
• And does the relationship of the individual or collective defensive activities relate better to unsuccessful passes in the Final Third?

My intent will be to answer these questions, and more, as the data piles up (figure once the 17 game mark is reached, for most MLS teams, I will have enough to offer a reasonable view on what is and isn't of value.  With respect to the data discussed here - I have the 102 games here and the 646 games from last year.

When circling back to my overall PWP Composite Index - here it is put another way...

• The Attacking Index is the relationship those seven data points have with respect to the six steps in the PWP Process.
• The Defending Index is the relationship the Opponents seven data points have with respect to the six steps in the PWP Process.
• The Composite Index is the difference between those two Indices.
• This year, at this time, the overall Correlation of that analysis is an R2 of  .7658 - the R2 for Goal Differential is .8729.
• The R2 for Goals Scored is .5083 and the R2 for Attacking PWP is .5865
• The R2 for Goals Against is -.6754. and the R2 for Defending PWP is -.6225
• Bottom line here is that the PWP Composite Index has the 2nd highest R2.  With that you should have a better feel for what goes on behind the scenes to get there as opposed to just looking at Goal Differential.
• The more data points collected the more relevant the R2.
• How this plays out by the end of the season is unclear but as a reminder the overall PWP Composite Index was 90% accurate by the end of the 2013 in showing what teams would make the playoffs and what teams wouldn't.
• And two of the top three teams in the Composite PWP Index for 2013 were in the MLS Championship Finals...
• Starting for Week 8 my PWP-Pick-List will offer up my prognostications about a team either winning or losing... no more draws will be offered up as no one team ever goes into a regular season game wanting to get a draw.  A draw is good but the intent of a Head Coach is to win first.

In closing...

The repeatable statistic in this effort is wins, draws and losses...

Expected Wins is all about what it generally takes to win a game versus lose a game; it's not about getting a draw.

Expected Goals is an 'effect' relative to Expected Wins and the 'causing' relationship between those seven data points; i.e. the combined effort of a team as it possesses, passes and penetrates with purpose.  Hence my phrase offreed up some time ago "quality beats quantity".

And yes, set-pieces win games, and sometimes the team getting those and scoring from those does that against the run-of-play; I suppose that is why the R2 for wins, draws, and losses is so close.

However viewed, teams play to win and score goals.  Various strategies and tactics may be used depending upon location, game state, game conditions, team formations, player selections, or what's needed to move on, if in a knock-out or other tournament type condition.

It will be interesting to see how this analysis unfolds for the World Cup this year... more to follow... Here is the link on more to follow for MLS this year... Expected Wins 2 (92 games /// 184 events)

Bottom line at the Bottom:  For the MLS, every team wants to win every game - those teams that are more successful in winning are those teams that:

1. Have slightly more possession,
2. Have better passing accuracy, 
3. Have more patience in penetrating the Final Third,
4. Take slightly fewer shots,
5. Put more shots on goal and,
6. Score more goals.

Best, Chris

MLS PWP through 6 Weeks: Does the wheat begin to separate from the chaff?

You might not think that six weeks is enough to begin to categorize what teams are performing well and what teams aren't - I may even agree with you to an extent, but here's the thing: we're six weeks in, and patterns are beginning to take shape. Instead of just showing the combined Index for all 19 teams I'm going to split them up into the Eastern and Western Conferences to show a different view.  And here's my link to the Introduction to PWP.

Here's all the Eastern Conference teams up after 6 weeks (note some teams have yet to play six games):

Observations:

The intent here is to offer up a graphic that shows which teams are performing better in attack than their opponents so far. No intent here to write off anyone, yet... too early for that with 28 games and a maximum of 84 points still being available.

Let's just say that Berhalter and Vermes have their teams in top gear - while Hackworth, Olsen, Petke, Heaps and Nelson are still fine tuning... as for Klopas, Yallop and Kinnear performance needs to get better and I'm sure they already know that.

As a reminder - this Index is the difference between how well a team executes the six primary steps of Possession with Purpose versus how well their opponents execute those same steps against them. A negative number thus means that, on average, the opponent is performing those six steps better (collectively) than that team.

I'm not a betting man yet on this Index, but if you think the odds are good that Columbus wins the Eastern Conference, then a flutter of $20/20 BPS might be a worthy chance. Spreading your bet across the field with Sporting Kansas City and one or two other teams might be worthy as well... for now I'm not seeing Montreal make it; but that's just me.

On to the Western Conference:

Observations:

Like the Eastern Conference, it's too early to go too deep, and the high flying teams play each other three times this year just like those guys back east; when LA and FC Dallas square off it should be interesting...  all the while Colorado and Seattle continue to get better, with Vancouver and the ever present/haunting Real Salt Lake looking to make a strong mid-year run.

As for Portland - times are hard early on this year and a 15-game unbeaten streak would be a much needed does of medicine to put them into the thick of things. How San Jose and Chivas cope remains to be seen - and given the styles I've seen from them this year, it appears crosses are their primary way to penetrate.

If you're a betting guy, I'm even less sure about the West than the east at this point - for now spreading the bets where the odds are good seems a likely choice with LA probably being the front-runner... is this the year where big money shows value in the West, like New York garnered last year in the East?

As for the top performing PWP attacking teams in general; here's how they compare against each other across all of MLS:

Observations:

While there is no sure thing if you're looking for teams who are more likely to put goals past their opponents in multiples it's likely the top 5-10 teams are those that can - whether they prevent the same number of goals is a different story.

Note Real Salt Lake is in the top 7 here but sits in 6th place overall in the Western Conference PWP - for me that indicates Real are operating pretty much like they did last year; score goals and work harder than your opponent to score more goals while relying on your defense to keep you in the game... without that stoppage time goal by Edu this past weekend it's likely RSL would have been higher up the Western Conference PWP Index.

Note also that Sporting remain in the top ten for Attack - they've always been viewed as a great defending side - the higher up the attacking scale they reach the more likely they will be balanced for another run at the Championship.

On the other end - New England and Toronto are bottom dwellers here but they are getting points; why so low?  In working their own style Toronto have started the season averaging just over 40% of the possession with just 64% accuracy in their overall passing - what we are seeing is timely penetration against opponents who are out of shape, position wise (for the most part) - recall also Defoe has been injured too.

As for New England - their accuracy and possession numbers are solid - where things drop off are their ability to create shots taken (2nd lowest in MLS so far this year) and their ability to convert those shots taken into shots on goal and goals scored.  Their goals scored percentage based on shots on goal is just 12.22%.  That is the lowest goal scoring conversion rate in MLS - and a whopping 56% points lower than FC Dallas - who have converted (on average) 68.33% of their shots on goal to goals scored...

Other notable pieces of information - both Columbus and LA are averaging better than 80% accuracy in 'all' passing totals; the teams doing the best in penetrating based upon total passes are New England (29.49%) with Houston, Columbus, Philadelphia and Chicago all hovering around 22%.  The team creating the most shots given their final third penetration is San Jose at 26%, Toronto at 25% and Chicago at 25% - can you say counter and direct attack (be it on the ground or in the air)?

The teams most successful in putting shots on goal compared to shots taken are Colorado (42%) Real Salt Lake (42%) Vancouver (41%) and FC Dallas at (40%)...

Moving on to the Composite PWP Defending Index...

Observations:

Not much separates the good from the not so good and perhaps the ugly; and it's too early to label anyone as really ugly.

For now the team most successful in holding their opponents to low passing accuracy percentages are Sporting KC (opponents just 70.25% accurate per game) with Real holding opponents to 71.97% accuracy, DC United 71.98% accuracy and Philadelphia holding opponents to 71.55% accuracy.

As for allowing penetration based upon overall passes; opponents of San Jose penetrate over 24% of the time while Vancouver also permits opponents to penetrate about 24% of the time.

In opponents completing final third passes the team most successful in limiting completed passes in their defending third is LA at 12% while Toronto's defense offers up a stingy 13.57%.

The teams allowing the most shots taken versus passes completed in their defending third are Chivas at 41.65% and New York at 40.55% - you wonder why I keep harping on New York that's why... they just don't defend that well in their own final third...

Teams yielding the most goals scored per shots on goal, per game, are Chivas at 45% (begging the question: why couldn't Portland score more than one goal?), Philadelphia at 43% while LA Galaxy allows a stingy 17% of their opponents shots on goal converted into goals scored.

In closing...

Just week 6, but patterns continue to develop - as the season unfolds I'll do my best to offer up these tidbits for your consideration.

For the future, I have a post coming up that speaks to formations and defensive activities - still need about 4 more weeks for that one to have enough data to offer some observations on it.

All the best, Chris

You can follow me on twitter at @chrisgluckpwp

New England tops the MLS PWP Team of the Week 6

Those living up near the northeast coast of America should be pretty chuffed with that result this weekend against Houston - an early season defensive-minded team came in to visit, and the Revolution re-educated Kinnear and his Dynamo on what a defensive-minded team really looks like.

I'll get to that in a minute, but before doing so, my link to what PWP is all about and then my recap on my PWP-Pick-List for last week and how the end results shook out.  In the future, look for the Pick-List in its own post.

Here's what I said in my "PWP-Pick-List" and then just beneath the outcome:

• Real Salt Lake at Philadelphia - Given the PWP pedigree of Salt Lake I'm not seeing Philadelphia win this game; as for the addition of Wenger and how he influences things - hard to say. In my view it is more likely Edu and/or Okugo lend more value than Wenger at this time. RSL wins...
• Philadelphia drew with Real Salt Lake on a late equalizer by Maurice Edu as both he AND Wenger added value.... noted.    (Miss)

• Colorado at Toronto - Tough one here but I am going with a win to Colorado. It's early yet and the Rapids remain a strong attacking team, even on the road (4 points on the road already). That coupled with numerous injuries in Toronto I see the Rapids taking 3 points against the depleted Reds.  (Hit)
• Colorado beat a depleted Toronto 1-nil...

• Chicago at Montreal - Truly an interesting game between Yallop's style and Klopas's style. I had originally considered this might end in a draw but after thinking a bit more about how weak the PWP Defense was in Chicago last year (under Klopas) and how weak the Montreal defense is looking this year (under Klopas) I think Chicago takes 3 points.
• Chicago and Amarikwa got a draw - if Quincey isn't on your Fantasy team he should be... (Miss)

• Houston at New England - That red card really hurt Houston and perhaps Brunner? gets the head nod to replace Horst. As for the Revolution - they have a solid defense but can they score? I think Houston can get at least one goal up north - I'm just not seeing the same for New England... Houston wins.
• New England scored two goals and Houston were shutout - is anyone surprised the New England defense did so well?  If you are looking for a 'team' Fantasy in defense you may consider the Revolution as a good place to focus; I know I've moved on from Houston...  That'll teach me to go against what I usually believe - defense will win you a game more often than attacking... (Miss)

• New York at DC United - A real early test for both teams. The defense for New York really hasn't been that good and DC are beginning to take shape. New York wins if Sekagya and Olave pair up as center backs with Eckersley returning to partner Miller as the fullbacks. If Kimura starts at right back I think DC United wins. Rumor has it Miller is injured - does that put Convey as the left fullback? If so don't forget the 4-1 loss to Vancouver with Convey playing left fullback...
• DC United took three points - Kimura started and New York lost - granted that loss isn't directly down to Kimura as Alexander blew his man to man coverage on the far post of that corner ball combination - but - Eckersley is stronger... (Hit)

• Seattle at FC Dallas - Another tough road match for the Sounders coming off a lucky tie against Portland last week. In all fairness the Timbers dominated large parts of that game and they exposed the weak center of Seattle. But FC Dallas also have a weak center - this could be another 3-3 draw but the edge goes to Seattle with Traore returning as center-back in place of a very weak defending Anibaba.
• Seattle beat Dallas - Traore played and Dempsey got a brace - and no I'm not going to say he got a 'due..'   (Hit)

• Chivas at Portland - Can I really opine anything different than 3 points to Portland? I'll put it this way: if they don't get three points against a very disorganized defense like Chivas there may be major issues in Soccer City USA.
• Chivas came from behind as open space came available late on... the defense continues to be an issue in Portland... (Miss)

• Vancouver at Los Angeles - I'm not sure anybody beats LA in LA this year. LA wins.
• LA took three points... the diamond continues to dazzle in Stub-hub with Keane scoring the lone goal. (Hit) 

• Columbus at San Jose - Challenging home game for San Jose and they need three points against a strong Eastern Conference team. For now, I don't see them doing that regardless of how many crosses they put into the box. Most likely a draw here...
• Columbus got goal 1 and San Jose, through Salinas to Wondolowski, got the draw... (Hit)

All told - in my maiden pix for week six - I was five out of nine... with three of my four losses coming via 2nd half equalizers by the teams I picked to lose - bollocks...

By the way - in case you missed it before here is a link to my PWP introduction...

Now for this weeks PWP - here's the Composite Index for Week 6 (only):

Observations...

No question here that New England were the top performing team this week. A 2-nil shutout (at home) should be a warning to the rest of the Eastern Conference that Jay Heaps has his team beginning to perform at its best.

What's really good to see about this team is how well the fullbacks integrated into the attack without forgetting that the first job is defense.  In a league where I think defense is considered a second-class citizen, the Revolution don't play that way... for me a welcomed site.  More to follow...

A late surprise for me was seeing how well Philadelphia performed this past weekend against a very strong Real Salt Lake - granted it was the 90+ minute mark before Edu equalized, but there's never a wrong time to score - there's only a wrong time to give up a goal.

The LA Galaxy got the expected result against Vancouver - the overall outputs from LA this game were just stunning... they offered up 617 passes; more than 500 of them completed with over 100 of those within the final third - I didn't watch the game but it is likely the Vancouver defense was pulled and pushed and poked to exhaustion.

That being said, the achilles heel for Vancouver last year was their defense - although they lost 1-nil they did a pretty good job all things considered - so the result didn't go in their favor but they should take some positives away from that game in how well they maintained the LA attack around that lone goal by Keene.

On the flip side - Houston started the season quite strong and it is likely Kinnear will get them firing on all cylinders again.

What was missing - at least in my view - was David Horst; that red card was double punishment for the Dynamo last week and his return should bring back a more solid back four.

With that said - and seeing how things continue to develop - I have begun my swap out my Dynamo defenders on my Fantasy team - I'll begin to rotate in a couple of New England players and maybe someone from DC United?  More to follow on that thought in my Cumulative PWP Index article later this week.

Moving on to my PWP Attacking team of the week...

Observations:

A surprise for some I'm sure - the winner this week is a team that drew 2-2 - while Seattle and Clint Dempsey traveled to FC Dallas and took three points... why?

For me it's down to the tenor of the overall attack - here's the differences (by the basic numbers) between those two teams this week - Philadelphia had the edge in possession (~55% to ~50%); their overall passing accuracy was ~76% compared to ~74%; while Seattle penetrated more often (23% to 20%) and put more shots on goal (46% vs 15%), the Union converted their two shots on goal into two goals scored (100% to 50% for Seattle)...

In a few words that means Seattle had more quantity in creating chances within the final third while the Union had more quality with their fewer chances... this has been the norm for many teams this past year-and-a-half within my PWP analysis - quality will beat quantity - not just in the statistics of the game, but in the regular run of play in the game.... it's always good to see statistics support what the eye sees.

Bottom line here though isn't the intent to minimze the success of Seattle - they took three points and Dempsey had another stellar game - but when looking at the comprehensive view of the game - more of the overall PWP parts of the game were executed better by Philadelphia than Seattle.

Other thoughts - Real Salt Lake performed in the top ten again as did FC Dallas and LA Galaxy - Portland edged its way into the 7th position this week and with that draw to Chivas it's a double-edged sword for Porter - the Timbers continue to improve in the overall attack - but they also continue to lack focus for a full 90+ minutes in defense.

How long before we see the Timbers begin to shake the trees to see what falls out for a defensive addition in the summer transfer window - perhaps another double-edged sword was the inclusion of Michael Harrington into the USMNT training scheme - has that reward created an issue for Harrington?

Both he and Kah were directly accountable for that poor man-marking in the box against Chivas; a mistake for Harrington that compounds his schoolboy mistake on closing down Neagle last week, which gave Neagle the room to turn and put in that devastating cross that saw Dempsey bring Seattle within one goal a week ago.

The PWP Attacking Player of the Week was...

Observations:

It's six weeks in and the top Attacking PWP Player of the week is another midfielder - go figure. Two years ago I opined that the most influential players in attack should come from the midfield, given their increased touches on the ball and their overall vision of the game from the center of the pitch.

Duly noted - Maurice Edu got a late equalizer and the Union fought back for a hard won draw against (IMO) the best team in MLS.

Evidence of Maurice's two way influence is above - enough said - this midfield acquisition continues to help the Union etch their place as a top team in the Eastern Conference, and grabbing a late point helps them sustain that Playoff vision.

On to the Defending Team of the Week... my favorite part of this game.

Observations:

I'll offer the Index a bit later; for now here's how New England's opponent (Houston) performed in the six steps of my PWP Index process...

Note the final three steps in the overall attack mounted by Houston - only 13% of their overall penetration generated a shot taken, and none of those shots were on goal. Consequently, none of those shots got past Shuttleworth--pretty stingy if you ask me. Their passing accuracy was below average, but with an average amount of possession.

If you had to paint a picture of a team that defends across the entire pitch, it's results like these that you want to see from your opponent's attack (i.e how well your team defense performs in controlling the opponent's attack).

Here's the overall Defending PWP Index for all 19 teams...

Observations:

Consistency begins to show for many teams this year - a welcome surprise for Olsen is that his team is beginning to shut down their opponents. D.C. United comes in 4th place this week against a very strong New York Red Bulls attacking side (at least they were last year).

Colorado traveled to Toronto and did well--aye the Reds had some injuries, but every team this year will experience players who get injured or miss a game through disciplinary reasons. Toronto got edged out by an improving Colorado.

On the tail end was FC Dallas, an unusual spot for them this year. The own goal, as well as the brace by Dempsey, speaks volumes - yet as we saw on the Attacking side of PWP, Seattle were also pretty strong across the entire pitch -- the center of FC Dallas defense remains and issue and Keel did not add value in pairing up with Hedges.

Now for my PWP Defending Player of the Week...

Observations:

I like fullbacks who add to the attack, but I love fullbacks who defend first - there's a reason these guys are in defense; it's to stop the opponent first.

Overall, Alston did a superb job in playing his role; he not only scored, but he was also five for five in throw-ins within the final third - you'd be surprised - but at least four teams this week couldn't complete over 70% of their throw-ins within their attacking third... never take a throw-in for granted.

Another storyline here is that Alston continues to work through very difficult health issues from the past - showing concentration and doing his job to support his team translates to strong character. In a country where I think good fullbacks are not the norm, it is good to see Kevin have a great game!

In closing...

Next up will be my PWP Pick-List for Week 7 followed by my PWP Cumulative Indices and associated thoughts. For now know that the top team in each conference is not the top team in my overall PWP Cumulative Index - lest we forget not everyone has played six games yet.

All the best, Chris

You can follow all my PWP analysis through twitter: @chrisgluckpwp

Possession with Purpose: My MLS thoughts and the Indices through Week 5

An editorial comment before starting: In case you missed it, there is no flash and dash to my headlines for Possession with Purpose. My intent here is not to create a misconception about what the Indices and corresponding statistics show. Statistics, when effective, are not based upon emotion; they have value because they lack emotion. The trick has always been, from a management standpoint, to balance the value of metrics with the value of knowledge in how the game of soccer is played.

With that said there are a few changes (as expected after just five weeks) to these Indices - I'll dig into those, but first as always, here's a link to my original article on American Soccer Analysis in case you aren't familiar with my methodology.

Observations:

It's still early so teams may move around quite a bit. Consider how last year took shape: it wasn't until the 15-17 week time-frame where teams settled in, and even then we saw FC Dallas take a marked nose-dive in PWP.

Put another way; by Week 17, last year, eight of the ten teams to make the MLS Playoffs were in the top ten and pretty much stayed there the rest of the way. By 2013 season's end this Index had correctly identified nine of the top ten teams with only Houston as the outlier at 12th.

The grist between Week 4 and Week 5...

• The Capt. Obvious here is FC Dallas have moved up top while Columbus, who lost 2-nil to Toronto have slid back to 2nd.
• As for the bottom dwellers (somebody has gotta be there)... San Jose, Chivas and New England - more to follow there when digging into the Attacking and Defending PWP Indices.
• Houston was off to a good start this season (4th in PWP last week) but they've dropped to 10th best this week. Much of that had to do with a red card to center-back David Horst and the three goals scored by Dallas less than 15 minutes after his exit.
• This drop is one of those early season moves that might be expected with such a low sample size - by Week 12 or so a one-off game like this for a team might not create such a large impact in the Index rating.
• Real Salt Lake completely hammered Toronto two weeks ago - yet this week, a big surprise for me, Toronto turned around and beat Columbus, in Columbus. That great result for Toronto saw them move up from 17th to 12th.
• Other movers include Ben Olsen's squad. DC United was dead last after four weeks and are now tucked in at 12th, behind Portland.
• Another big mover this week was New England, albeit the wrong way, who moved from 12th best to 17th. More to follow on the Revolution a bit further down...

What to Look for Next Weekend...

As the year progresses I will begin to offer up a few snippets for your consideration on the upcoming games while leveraging the PWP Indices.

I'm not sure if you want to call these prognostications or not - that's up to you - but in looking at the Indices and understanding all the analysis behind how they are created here's my thoughts for this weekend.

I call it my (PWP-Pick-List): I have no idea how this will play out so we can all watch together...

• Real Salt Lake at Philadelphia - Given the PWP pedigree of Salt Lake I'm not seeing Philadelphia win this game; as for the addition of Wenger and how he influences things - hard to say. In my view it is more likely Edu and/or Okugo lend more value than Wenger at this time. RSL wins...
• Colorado at Toronto - Tough one here but I am going with a win to Colorado. It's early yet and the Rapids remain a strong attacking team, even on the road (4 points on the road already). That coupled with numerous injuries in Toronto I see the Rapids taking 3 points against the depleted Reds.
• Chicago at Montreal - Truly an interesting game between Yallop's style and Klopas's style. I had originally considered this might end in a draw but after thinking a bit more about how weak the PWP Defense was in Chicago last year (under Klopas) and how weak the Montreal defense is looking this year (under Klopas) I think Chicago takes 3 points.
• Houston at New England - That red card really hurt Houston and perhaps Brunner? gets the head nod to replace Horst. As for the Revolution - they have a solid defense but can they score? I think Houston can get at least one goal up north - I'm just not seeing the same for New England... Houston wins.
• New York at DC United - A real early test for both teams. The defense for New York really hasn't been that good and DC are beginning to take shape. New York wins if Sekagya and Olave pair up as center backs with Eckersley returning to partner Miller as the fullbacks. If Kimura starts at right back I think DC United wins. Rumor has it Miller is injured - does that put Convey as the left fullback? If so don't forget the 4-1 loss to Vancouver with Convey playing left fullback...
• Seattle at FC Dallas - Another tough road match for the Sounders coming off a lucky tie against Portland last week. In all fairness the Timbers dominated large parts of that game and they exposed the weak center of Seattle. But FC Dallas also have a weak center - this could be another 3-3 draw but the edge goes to Seattle with Traore returning as center-back in place of a very weak defending Anibaba.
• Chivas at Portland - Can I really opine anything different than 3 points to Portland? I'll put it this way: if they don't get three points against a very disorganized defense like Chivas there may be major issues in Soccer City USA.
• Vancouver at Los Angeles - I'm not sure anybody beats LA in LA this year. LA wins.
• Columbus at San Jose - Challenging home game for San Jose and they need three points against a strong Eastern Conference team. For now, I don't see them doing that regardless of how many crosses they put into the box. Most likely a draw here...

I wouldn't bet the house on any of these offerings - I'd suggest they are no more or less valuable than what others following MLS soccer might consider.

For the record though - after Week 15 completes I will begin to keep official track of my prognostications leveraging the PWP Indices.

Moving on to my PWP Attacking Index...

Observations:

Here's where it gets interesting. Note that Philadelphia, New York and Chicago Fire are fairly high up in the rankings while Toronto and Sporting KC are a bit lower.

This is where you can get an idea on what teams tend to focus a wee bit more in attack and what teams might not.

So for example, when looking at New England, they have had just one home game so far this year. They've been shutout by Vancouver and in three of their four road matches they didn't score a goal.

The only team they have beaten this year is San Jose, a current bottom dweller for most of the first five weeks. It's that overall Index rating that helps me shape my pick that Houston will beat New England given their current performances.

As for New York, they have four draws so far this year after getting hammered at home by Vancouver. Their attack has gotten better with Peguy Luyindula and his efforts working with Steele and Sam were pretty good in Montreal. All that happened without Henry, Cahill or McCarty starting (albeit McCarty did come on as a sub later on). Don't forget Luyindula missed that PK as well...

Chicago... This team does not resemble the attack pattern of old Chicago that Yallop left behind and abandoned in San Jose. There is more grist on the ground this year and if the defense gets better they should be pretty good.

My PWP Defending Index...

Observations:

The LA Galaxy have moved into the top spot in place of Columbus while Houston took a huge nose dive with the red card to Horst.

Four goals against (one being an own goal) to FC Dallas will significantly influence this Index that early in the season... note Houston went from having the second most effective defense to the 12th most effective defense.

Creeping up further this week was Sporting KC. Last year they were tops for the 34 game regular season and this week they climbed from 5th up to 2nd with that game against Real Salt Lake. It's quite an achievement for Sporting to get a clean sheet against that wicked-good Diamond 4-4-2.

So how about New England? Two years ago their defense was solid and their attack was shaky; have they digressed? Hard to say, their back-end looks good (ooh err missus) but their front end leaves a wee bit to be desired...

Vancouver continues to stay in the top 10 for Defending PWP. Last year they were horrid in defense and every week they stay in the top ten is every reason to consider betting they will make the playoffs.

Last but not least Toronto are sitting in 7th place in Defending PWP. Defense will win you championships. The rebuild, though looking more geared to improve the attack, has had a strong influence on the defensive side of the pitch.

As noted earlier it appears they have a number of injuries --- to long to list --- so here's a link in case you are interested.

In closing...

Clint Dempsey had a great 20+ minutes for Seattle this past weekend and it looks as if Schmid may have found the right area for him to operate in. That's bad news for the Western Conference as a whole and in particular for Vancouver and Portland as they also vie against the Sounders for the Cascadia Cup.

How Dempsey settles in will be interesting especially if Kenny Cooper returns to his goal scoring days while in New York. The system might be a wee bit different but Cooper does well when there are others around him who can score and create good space by their mere presence on the pitch; Dempsey does that like Henry does that for New York.

All else considered the only teams I really haven't talked about that much about are Montreal and Chivas.

I have no idea how Chivas will do this year. Their match this weekend in Portland is an early statement match for both teams. If Chivas takes it on the chin it is likely they retain the doormat award in the West again this year.

As for Montreal, I'm not a fan of Klopas (not because I don't like him, I don't know him) but I think the poor defense in Chicago will translate to Montreal. It's hard to say though now that they have McInerney as well as Di Viao...

Five games in, Montreal are 5th worst in Defending PWP and 6th worst in Attacking PWP. Bottom line here is they aren't good on either side of the ball, yet.

If I had an early season prognostication it would be Montreal will be the doormats of the Eastern Conference unless Jack McInerney brings some magic with him.

All the best, Chris You can follow me on twitter here @ChrisGluckPWP.

MLS Possession with Purpose: The best and worst of Week 5

And so it goes; another week completed where you got the heart-pounding excitement from the Cascadia Cup clash, a defensive struggle from two of the best teams in MLS, and lopsided victories for two others. Before digging in, a couple of links to consider: if you missed the match between Portland and Seattle here are two articles you may want to read if the opportunity presents itself. This one was offered up by MLS, and then here's mine offered up on my home site here in Portland with the Columbian Newspaper.

Also, if PWP is new for you there may be value in reading what that's about through this link, an introduction to PWP and some explanations in case this approach is new to you.

With that out of the way it's time for some grist... who was the most effective and efficient team in my PWP Composite Index this week, and who was the worst?

To set the table here's my standard diagram for Week 5 only. Later this week I will publish the Cumulative Index - when I do I'll pop that link here.

Observations:

There were two games this past weekend with lopsided scores (3-nil LA over Chivas) and (4-1 FC Dallas over Houston).

Up until the completion of the LA Galaxy 3-nil thrashing of Chivas USA, it looked like FC Dallas would be top of the heap for Week 5 - and rightly so given they put 3 past Houston plus they got the Orange team to give them an own goal as well.

But as you can see, LA were tops this week; more later on why, and it may surprise you.

The tough part about the FC Dallas game, for Houston, was the straight red and sending off of David Horst on what the Referee considered was a rash foul down Houston's right sideline. I'm not so sure about that but as we have seen so far this year, the Referee's are stamping their authority with no reservation whatsoever.

Spilt milk and, as it goes. Dallas scored three goals within 15 minutes of that Red Card to take three points. If you run a team defense in Fantasy football and have Houston in that role you got hosed - I do and I got hosed in the back-four; still got 52 points though!

But back to the LA Galaxy match on Sunday

If anyone wasn't sure about how Landon Donovan could operate in a Diamond 4-4-2, be advised that he can - he has - and he will; when surrounded by other strong players, he's tough to stop.

For me, though, this game wasn't about just scoring goals. It was also about defense, and it's that defensive mindset that put LA at the overall top this week - clean sheets matter!

As for the bottom side of the Index...

If it's LA shutting down Chivas that garners the top offensive spot, then it's reasonable the flip side is the complete lack of structure and focus from Chivas that sees them at the bottom.

Carlos Bocanegra has great mental awareness, but he can't stop an aggressive Galaxy attack on his own - and in the short glimpses I had of their video it certainly looked to me like Baptiste and others were simply outmatched.

As for Houston - enuf said - the Red Card to Horst directly influenced the outcome of that game.

As for the middle of the middle of the pack... if you read my recommendations above about the Timbers-Sounders match, you know that game was all about possession with the intent to penetrate. There was absolutely no possession, that I saw, where the intent was to possess just for the sake of controlling possession.

There is no love lost between those two teams, and it seems every time they meet both just simply want to smash each other senseless. It makes for great entertainment, but there are times in my book where negative football has value, and securing three points (like it or not) is a time where negative football has value.

So on to the PWP Attacking Index; here's how they lined up head to head...

Observations:

For the first time this year the magical 3.00 barrier was broken in the attacking index. It comes on the heels of the USMNT also breaking the 3.00 barrier in the first half against Mexico. If you missed my thoughts on that game, you can review them here.

Onwards and upwards - for the first time this year Portland broke the top-five barrier in team attack for a given week, getting two stunners from Diego Chara plus another couple from the Argentina contingent of Diego Valeri and Maxi Urruti.

Not to be outdone was the final 20-minute performance of Clint Dempsey - aye - he got a goal early on, but for much of the game his influence and presence was pretty much unnoticed. Indeed, the chalkboard tells us that between about the 40-minute mark and the 70-minute mark, he had just 9 touches of any sort with no shots or key passes. It wasn't until the 70-minute mark where he started to directly influence and impact the game. After that point, Dempsey had no fewer than 18 touches in the run of play with one key pass, three shots on target, and a goal.

I'm all for highlighting his hat trick in that game, but he simply wasn't solid through the full 90+ minutes, and his team barely eked out a draw.

Understanding that and seeing the red-card tainted blowout of Houston by FC Dallas my PWP Attacking Player of Week 5 was...

Observations:

That may be a surprise to some on two fronts. One - Dempsey got a Hat Trick. And Two - what about Watson or Diaz?

Well, as already noted, Dempsey simply didn't play well for a full 90+ minutes and his presence and influence did not prevent Portland from having their best attacking performance of the year.

In addition, it's likely Seattle drops three points if Ben Zemanski doesn't do what he did in the box, and I'm simply not in favor of seeing someone getting an Attacking Player of the Week award when his team loses or draws. 3 points is the objective in this game - it's not all about just scoring goals.

And two - while Diaz is the spark that lights the Dallas attack this year and Watson donated a brace of goals this weekend, I feel and think Michel had more overall responsibility on the pitch; therefore - given his vast number of touches on both sides of the ball I give him the award.

And in case you missed it, I don't view this weekly award as going to someone who just lights up the front end without also considering how well they supported the back end.

Time now for Defending PWP Team of the week, where the LA Galaxy really made it count

Observations:

It was a close call between LA and Sporting KC this week when it came down to it; any team who can get a clean sheet against Real Salt Lake has really done their job.

But... alas... the Top PWP Defending team was LA. Why? Well it really came down to how poorly Chivas USA performed against LA, and not how poorly Real Salt Lake performed against Sporting; remember - this Weekly Index does not get influenced by previous performances on a week to week basis only the Cumulative Index does.

When checking out my Cumulative Index later this week, you may see a change in who the top defending team is overall - for now though - this is just Week 5.

In looking at the player statistics I had considered awarding the PWP Defender of Week 5 to Landon Donovan, and here's why: he had three key passes, five recoveries and an 85% passing accuracy with 2 assists. But the more compelling case fell to Juninho, given his combined efforts (like Michel) playing on both sides of the ball.

Here's the Diagram offering up his team effort on Sunday...

In closing

Week 5 saw some individual players step up and some team performances improve as compared to previous weeks. It's a long season, and it's likely the Cumulative Index will continue to take shape - especially after the (unexpected) Toronto victory over Columbus in Ohio.

You may have thought that game flew under the radar, but it hasn't, and Toronto will look the better for it in my Cumulative Index... all is not lost when a team gets a big victory without getting the headlines for that week.

If curious - here's a link to my Weekly PWP analysis on the Red Bulls of New York.

All for now,

Chris

MLS PWP: Team Performance Index through Week 4

With just four weeks of play in the books, it's unlikely that the bottom feeders by the end of this year are those at the bottom right now. But this analysis should be an indicator on who needs to get better in attacking (and in defending) when it comes to Possession, Passing Accuracy, Penetration, Creation of Goal Scoring Opportunities and converting those opportunities into goals. As a reminder here is the initial PWP article offering up an introduction and explanation to the PWP Strategic Index, if this is a new approach for you to consider.

For the future - please get used to the abbreviation and hashtag #PWP-TPI. I will refer to my cumulative analyses on MLS team performance this way.

And in case you missed it here is a link to the Week 4 PWP Analysis.

Here's how they stand after Week 4:

Observations: (click to enlarge)

For me it's no surprise that Columbus remain atop considering they have 9 points after three games and have done pretty well in all phases of PWP. They rank 3rd in Possession percentage at ~57%, 1st in Passing Accuracy at ~81%, nearly half of all their shots taken have been on goal (41.48%), and they've converted 62.86% of those targeted shots into goals. Only FC Dallas has a better rate in converting targeted shots on goal to goals scored (71.25%)... Conversely, DC United have only converted 7.41% of their shots on goal into goals scored.

What is somewhat surprising is how far down Toronto have dropped after their 3-nil loss to Real Salt Lake. As noted in my Week 4 Analysis Toronto did well in getting results their first two games, but when going up against a traditional powerhouse in MLS their tactics and strategies were simply dominated.

Again, to drive home some points about PWP - Passing Accuracy and Possession Percentage will influence the bottom line, and in the first three games Toronto have simply been very poor in passing accuracy (67%, 59%, and 54%), and their highest amount of possession percentage came against RSL at 46%, while they had 38% against DC United and 32% against Seattle.

We already know that DC United has not started with a bang--and given Seattle's loss to Columbus--it isn't quite so surprising after all.  (Perhaps?) the league table position for Toronto is more a reflection of luck and good fortune than a comprehensive approach to attacking and defending with purpose?

I'm not alone in ranking Toronto a bit further down the scale...  Whoscored.com currently ranks Toronto as 11th. I also checked Squawka.com, but their data currently only go out to week 2 for team comparisons.

So enough about Toronto. Dallas, Salt Lake, Houston and Vancouver round out the top 5. In considering those other four, the new kid on the block for me here is Vancouver. Why?

Well last year they had issues in defending while clearly having a very strong attack. Early indications are that the defending side of the equation has been fixed... does that hold true as the grind begins in April and the heat of summer sets in?

As for Dallas, Salt Lake and Houston - Pareja is no stranger to fielding a top team in MLS when it comes to Possession with Purpose (Colorado was in the top ten last year), and Houston has done what it needed to do (at least so far) to get tighter in defense and offer up better balls for Barnes and Bruin to score.

The boring team in the top 5 goes to Real Salt Lake. Simply said, they just keep doing what they need to do - polish their Diamond 4-4-2 and let it shine, regardless of who plays up top - be it Garcia, Plata or Saborio. Then there's the ever present and dominating defensive central midfielder, Kyle Beckerman, who controls the back.

Speaking of the Diamond 4-4-2 - as the year continues, I'll be able to offer up additional analysis on what teams run what basic formations with the intent to really peel them back to see if specific team performance indicators increase or decrease based upon that simple filter.

In considering the bottom feeders outside of Toronto so far...

DC United - Aye - great weekend in that game against Chicago, and there remains no question DC United like a possession-based attack. The difference this week was a highly engaged Johnson and Espindola in attack that also included a steady stream of pretty good crossing and wing penetration.

How well that holds up is hard to tell. Head coach Frank Yallop has been known to cede possession, given his days in San Jose, but the direct attack for the Fire is more ground-based this year given the types of strikers. Has everybody by now realized that Yallop was sacked because he wanted to change the attacking approach in San Jose, and Watson--along with the front office--didn't?

To be sure - look no further than what team sits just above DC United - it's San Jose. For now, that's not an indicator that the Earthquakes are a bad team... no... I'd offer that it's more of an indicator that their approach in attack needs refinement as does their back four being a bit unlucky with that own goal against New England.

Not last and not least are Portland and Montreal... For me, seeing Montreal on the low end is not surprising - head coach Frank Klopas ran a pretty weak defensive team in Chicago last year, and it seems to have translated over to Montreal. It's true that Di Vaio was missing in games 1 and 2, so this will be a team to watch as well.

As for Portland,  here's a possession-based team that simply hasn't clicked yet. And in all that there remain holes in the defending side. One might say that there are distinct instances of distinction where they have instinctively distinguished themselves as lacking instinct in where to defend. Or - in other words - the back four have been better at ball watching than defending the ball...

Mid-table: Sporting, Colorado, LA, New York, Philadelphia and New England

It's early days and given some top activities in defending and attacking for Sporting it is likely their run of games inside and outside of the MLS Regular season will now give them a breather to prepare for Month 2; the same can probably be said for LA as well as the Earthquakes (who a lower at this time).

As for New York - I'll touch more on them in another article but for now I'm still not sure Petke has found the right mix. Philadelphia, from what I have seen, has some dangerous players in the Midfield (Edu and Maindana come to mind first) - so how they fare in April will be interesting to see in contrast with New England.

With all those observations I'll simply offer up these two diagrams to give you an idea on where each team stands in the PWP Strategic Attacking Index and Strategic Defending Index.

As a reminder here are the individual players who have been highlighted as the PWP Attacking Players for March - they might be reasonable targets for your MLS Fantasy team if funds are available...

1. Federico Higuain 2. Jaoa Plata 3. Bernardo Anor 4. Graham Zusi

On to the Strategic Defending PWP and the PWP Defenders of March.

Top Defenders for the Month of March:

1. Michael Parkhurst 2. Corey Ashe 3. Ike Opara 4. Kyle Beckerman

In closing...

Remember that the season is still young - but in about 4 weeks time it won't be as young, and in 16 weeks time this Index should begin to settle in and hopefully, like last year, paint an early picture on who's up for the Playoffs and who might be making some summer transfers to bolster chances for a late season push.

Teams to watch in this Cumulative Index are numerous.

In the bottom end let's see about Toronto, Portland, San Jose, and DC United - will the rest of MLs figure out the way to beat the Toronto approach of counter attacking? Will the return of Donovan Ricketts after the Seattle match spell a recovery in the back four for Portland? Can DC United really make better use of the accuracy and possession based approach? And finally, can Watson continue to make use of his aerial attack in getting penetration through the air as other teams seem to build greater strength in the midfield?

On the top side can Columbus continue their early run and does the sleeping giant residing in Houston awaken even more to clinch dominance across the East? Can FC Dallas hold it together this year under the new guidance of Pareja?

How about the other money bag teams like New York, Seattle and LA Galaxy - have other teams in the mix figured a way to bypass the top-flight DP approach used by those guys or are they real challengers for the Cup and the Shield?

Last but not least - the Champions from last year - Sporting continues to show well in defending, and Zusi has lifted his game on both sides of the pitch. Will the World Cup really be his time to shine? For the sake of the USMNT I hope so.

As always my thanks to OPTA and the MLS for continuing to provide free information in order to conduct this analysis.

If interested here's a link to my latest article on New Sports Hub about the Red Bulls of New York, including their PWP Attacking and Defending Players of the Week 4.

You can follow me on twitter here: Each week I look to offer up twitter comments for the MLS nationally-televised games as well as those for the Timbers.

All the best, Chris

MLS Possession with Purpose Week 4: The best (and worst) performances

The beauty and maybe the curse of Possession with Purpose (the weekly update) is that it completely ignores past performance and only gives you a view on how things went this weekend.

For me, I like that, as it helps point out how well a team performs against their counterparts as a snapshot in time. The value in seeing that weekly effort then has more grist when viewing those positive and negatives in a cumulative effort week to week.

So without further ado here's how the teams stood toe to toe in Week 4:

Observations: Considering the complete blowout that Real Salt Lake had against a supposed "elite" Toronto team, it's no wonder those guys headed the composite Index this week.

Like many things, there is a tendency to over-embellish on occasion when things look really good for a team early in the season, and those reminders on how far FC Dallas fell last year - from first to eighth in about 3 months - you just can never tell how good a team is until they go up against the likes of a team like Real Salt Lake.

Last year we saw Salt Lake lose out on both the Open Cup and the MLS Championship Cup - they have been consistent in their consistency for a consistently long time; Toronto may have done well in the first couple of games but as noted in an editorial of mine the other day, the word 'elite' really doesn't belong to a team like this just yet.

In taking a further look at this Index, note again how far down the rung Portland is; it indeed was a close match and there were many chances for the Timbers, but an Index like this points out that the weaknesses in defending far outweigh their strengths in attack. If the Timbers are to turn this around (quickly) then a run of clean sheets is in order. No better way to test that than in their next game when they host the Sounders at Providence Park. If their blood doesn't boil up for this game, it may be a very long season indeed for Portland.

So after seeing the Composite winner, who actually took top honors in the overall team attacking department? You may be surprised that it wasn't Real Salt Lake---lest it's forgotten, the Index above points out the overall difference between Attacking PWP and Defending PWP.

Here's the PWP Attacking Index:

Observations:

First out of the blocks this week is Sporting Kansas City - and yes; they did pull a Lazurus this week by scoring the late winner in stoppage time. When they scored their goals doesn't matter to this Index, as it is context neutral in that respect. The fact that they came from behind to defeat a worthy Rapids team speaks more to the overall outcome and all the compelling work that went with it.

And yes - their defense gave up two goals. So, no - you won't find them in the top ten in the PWP Defending Index.

Other teams doing well in attack this week were FC Dallas, Columbus (also with a late winner) and Chivas USA (who lost 2 points by giving up a late equalizer to New York).

By the way - that's a pretty good run so far for Dallas and Columbus; Higuain should probably be on your fantasy team, as should Diaz; as a Timbers supporter it was hard to acknowledge that it was a blindingly good 'turn and strike' Diaz had against Portland yesterday.  It's like Diaz turned on a dime and struck it home - unfortunately it appeared that dime was in Pa Modou Kah's pocket.

As for Real Salt Lake - no surprise they are in the top three given their 3-nil win against Toronto.

Perhaps another surprise for some is DC United being in the top 5 - if you watched the game, like me, there were moments where DC really looked good in attack. A 2-2 draw was worthy and should give Olsen some breathing room for a wee bit longer; note - having a passing accuracy of 93.50% in that game 'will' influence the Index just a wee bit.

On to the internal process data for Sporting and the PWP Attacking Player of the Week:

Observations:

Critical data in the PWP analysis hinges on (but doesn't solely rely upon) Possession percentage, passing accuracy and the ability to leverage those two primary statistics in 'creating and scoring goals'; Sporting were 4th best in accuracy, 2nd best in possession, and 2nd best in scoring goals based upon shots on goal.

Those outputs had strong influence in them being top of the Index this week.

The individual team leader in Possession percentage this week was Columbus (shaded somewhat given the red card to Traore) - Passing accuracy was tops with DC United at a whopping 93.50% while Chivas USA made the best of their chances by scoring one goal from one shot on goal while the other five were blocked...

Graham Zusi is my top PWP Attacking Player of the Week #4:

Observations:

If you had Graham Zusi in your Fantasy team you should have gotten some pretty good points from him - I don't, so I have no clue how well he really did.

It's not hard to see how outputs like that correlated to a big three points in Colorado.

And even more compelling was his motor - he had two interceptions, one clearance and two recoveries in the defending half - some good evidence that he played on both sides of the pitch today.  Saborio will probably get all the notoriety this week - so be it. Sometimes things work out that way...

On to the defending part of this game. Recall RSL were top in the overall Composite Index - here's why:

Observations:

A clean sheet is a clean sheet is a clean sheet - and when you can go a whole game without conceding one foul in your own defending third, it's no wonder Toronto were held scoreless. Even more so when considering how many PK's have already been awarded this year (16) {is that a record already?}.

Bottom line here is the bottom line: Toronto, a team not known for liking to possess the ball, did not really possess the ball, and indeed had just 3 shots on goal with 15 shots taken. Playing counter against Real simply doesn't work - just ask the Timbers of 2013.

Here's how Real Salt Lake scored in the PWP Defending Process:

Observations:

Pretty compelling - but what stands out most to me is not the Real Salt Lake defense as a whole, but rather that Toronto have yet to break the 70% Passing accuracy percentage total this year - they had 67% accuracy in Seattle, 59% accuracy against DC United and 54% accuracy against RSL. If anything, perhaps those first two wins for Toronto were more of an oddity than a trend of things to come? Guess we'll have to wait and see about that.

One other, more devious consideration, is that Toronto are simply refusing to make attempts at engaging a possession-based approach. Instead one might offer that, if the conditions aren't right for a counter-attack, they simply just push it back into the opposing teams' half any way they can, and then 'wait' for the right moment to engage an attack when the opponent is a bit more disorganized.

I'll have to watch for that a bit more closely - and given Nelson has been in Europe for a while, he may have picked up a few things that are a wee bit different, tactical wise, than how things have been played here in the States.

The PWP Defending Player of the Week was Kyle Beckerman - and here's why:

Observations:

Gotta love that picture - anyhow - some very compelling information here with Kyle on both sides of the pitch - he's in the central defending midfield role with perhaps the most responsibility of anyone on RSL, and here he is with 2 key passes, 80% accuracy in passing, with 6 interceptions and 14 recoveries.

Bottom line this week is that Kyle Beckerman basically ate Toronto for lunch.

All that said, there is always next week, Toronto; for now this game and others already played this year by Beckerman do him well in his opportunities to continue to play for the USMNT.

In closing...

In about a day or two I'll be offering up the Cumulative PWP Composite Index and all that goes with it.

All the best, Chris

MLS PWP: Team Performance Index through Week 3

I hope all are enjoying my PWP series here at American Soccer Analysis. With Week 3 completed, I have at least two games worth of data for every team in MLS, and now it's time to begin offering up the cumulative PWP Strategic Index and all that goes with it. Wasting no time, here's the initial diagram on how things look after at least two games:

Observations:

Given what happened the first few weeks, it should be no surprise that Columbus lead the pack early on with Houston second, and (like last year) a strong early start for FC Dallas.

What may be surprising to some is where Toronto falls in this Index; it should be noted that in both games played this year, Toronto have had just 32.46% possession (Seattle) and 37.68% possession (D.C. United).

What this indicator helps point out is how different Toronto is playing compared to others while still taking points - in both cases Toronto have opted to sit back and cede possession in order to capitalize on opponents losing their shape. How well that continues to work for them remains to be seen, but for now Bradley has been absolutely correct in his analysis/offering to MLS: you don't need to have a majority of possession to win a game.

As for the bottom dweller, note the familiar spot for D.C. United. It would seem those off-season transactions have yet to bear fruit, and it might not be t0o long before coach Ben Olsen sees the door if United don't start turning things around.

How about some of the other teams in the middle? Well New York and Portland have both opened up exactly like they did last year with two points in three games. What may be most troubling for both is a lack of scoring. We'll see how that unfolds, as it is likely that Thierry Henry and Tim Cahill will score sooner rather than later.

With respect to LA Galaxy, I watched their game this weekend against Real Salt Lake, and it appeared to me that it was all about Robbie Keane and his single-handed goal (with Donovan lurking) versus a solid Real Salt Lake team effort. If Joao Plata doesn't go off injured in that game, I'd have been a betting man that RSL would have taken three points from LA.

Other lurkers here are Seattle, Colorado and Vancouver. Recall last year that the defense of Vancouver kept them from the Playoffs (45 goals against). This year things are starting a wee bit different, as they had a great defensive battle with New England this past weekend.

All those thoughts being said here's how the teams stack up in the PWP Strategic Attacking Index:

Observations:

Columbus Crew, FC Dallas and Houston are the new guys on the block this year--as compared to last year--with RSL, LA Galaxy, Seattle, Colorado, New York and Vancouver returnees to the top spots.

Missing from the potent attack side so far this year (foremost) are Sporting Kansas City and Portland. One may recall that Chivas USA had a good start last year, but then the Goats seemed to wander off and join D.C. United as the season wore on.

Of note is where Toronto sits. In playing a counterattacking style, parts of their PWP will naturally fall lower down the list than other more possession-based teams. It will be fun to track how they progress in PWP this year.

For the defensive side of PWP here's how things stand today:

Observations:

With Columbus doing so well in attack it's no surprise that their opponents aren't... so here's where the real grist begins when peeling back defending activities.

Note that Houston, Seattle, Colorado, and Sporting Kansas City are in the top five, while FC Dallas, high up in attack, isn't quite so high in defending. Will that gap create issues again this year? Pareja was noted as having a pretty tight defense in Colorado. Will there be personnel changes in Dallas?

Oddly enough, a top defender in my view for Portland was David Horst. I'm still not sure why he was moved to Houston, but given their early season success, his big presence in the back has certainly improved that team. Can David remain healthy? Hard to say, but continued presence by the big guy should garner some interest, I hope, in some USMNT training after the World Cup is completed this year. It's never too early to plan for the future.

As for the bottom dwellers, note again that Chivas USA are the bottemost. They may have improved their attack this off-season, but if they can't stop the goals against, that attack will mean nothing when it comes to Playoff crunch time.

In closing...

It remains early, and I've every belief that this table will adjust itself a bit more as time passes and points are won and lost. The intent is not necessarily to match the League Tables, but to offer up a different perspective on teams' abilities that are reasonable when viewing team performance.

Check out my PWP Week 3 Analysis, as well as my New York Red Bulls-centric PWP weekly analysis for New York Sports Hub. If time permits please join me on twitter as I offer up thoughts during nationally-televised matches this year.

All the best, Chris

MLS Possession with Purpose Week 3: The best (and worst) performances

Here's my weekly analysis for your consideration as Week 3 ended Sunday evening with a 2-nil Seattle victory over Montreal. To begin, for those new to this weekly analysis, here's a link to PWP. It includes an introduction and some explanations; if you are familiar with my offerings then let's get stuck in.

First up is how all the teams compare to each other for Week 3:

Observations:

Note that Columbus remains atop the League while those who performed really well last year (like Portland) are hovering near the twilight zone. A couple of PKs awarded to the opponent and some pretty shoddy positional play defensively have a way of impacting team performance.

Note also that Toronto are mid-table here but not mid-table in the Eastern Conference standings; I'll talk more about that in my Possession with Purpose Cumulative Blog later this week.

Also note that Sporting Kansas City are second in the queue for this week; you'll see why a bit later.

A caution however - this is just a snapshot of Week 3; so Houston didn't make the list this week but will surface again in my Cumulative Index later.

The bottom dweller was not DC United this week; that honor goes to Philadelphia. Why? Well, because like the previous week, their opponent (Columbus) is top of the heap.

So how about who was top of the table in my PWP Strategic Attacking Index? Here's the answer for Week 3:

As noted, Columbus was top of the Week 3 table again this week, with FC Dallas and their 3-1 win against Chivas coming second, and Keane and company for LA coming third.

With Columbus taking high honors, and all the press covering Bernardo Anor, it is no surprise he took top honors in the PWP Attacking Player of the Week. But he didn't take top honors just for his two wicked goals, and the diagram below picks out many of his superb team efforts as Columbus defeated Philadelphia 2-1.

One thing to remember about Bernardo; he's a midfielder and his game isn't all about scoring goals. Recoveries and overall passing accuracy play a huge role in his value to Columbus, and with 77 touches he was leveraged quite frequently in both the team's attack and defense this past weekend.

Anyhoo... the Top PWP Defending Team of the Week was Sporting Kansas City. This is a role very familiar to Sporting KC, as they were the top team in defending for all of MLS in 2013. You may remember that they also won the MLS Championship, showing that a strong defense is one possible route to a trophy.

Here's the overall PWP Strategic Defending Index for your consideration:

While not surprising for some, both New England and Vancouver finished 2nd and 3rd respectively; a nil-nil draw usually means both defenses performed pretty well.

So who garnered the PWP Defending Player of the Week?  Most would consider Aurelien Collin a likely candidate, but instead I went with Ike Opara, as he got the nod to start for Matt Besler.  Here's why:

Although he recorded just two defensive actions inside the 18-yard box compared to five for Collin, Opara was instrumental on both sides of the pitch in place of Besler. All told, as a Center-back, his defensive activities in marshaling the left side were superb as noted in the linked MLS chalkboard diagram here. A big difference came in attack where Opara had five shots attempts with three on target.

In closing...

My thanks again to OPTA and MLS for their MLS Chalkboard; without which this analysis could not be offered.

You can follow me on twitter @chrisgluckpwp, and also, when published you can read my focus articles on the New York Red Bulls PWP this year at the New York Sports Hub. My first one should be published later this week.

All the best, Chris