Friday's MLS Projections / by Matthias Kullowatz

Our next version of Expected Goals is coming, which will include more specific shot location data, as well as additional information about the key pass for each shot. Though Expected Goals 3.0 is not ready yet, one byproduct of its creation is that I now have shot data from 2012 and 2011, and I can make better prediction models. 

So these projections are still based on xGoals 2.0, but the model has more history to work with when evaluating the importance of various statistics.

Seattle Sounders versus Real Salt Lake

We know how much this version of xGoals thinks of RSL, and it's not much. Seattle is favored to win with 61.5 percent probability, and RSL with just 13.5 percent, leaving 25 percent for the draw. RSL's xGD on the road this season is third worst at -0.60 expected goals per 96 minutes, while Seattle's +0.77 at home is second only to the LA Galaxy.

Chivas USA versus Sporting Kansas City

Oh, there's another game tonight? While home teams typically win nearly 50 percent of the time, this is no ordinary matchup. Chivas has just a 39-percent chance of winning, and SKC matches that same 39 percent, leaving a 22-percent chance for a draw. Chivas' home field advantage may come across as the weakest in the league, but its -0.08 xGD at home essentially equals SKC's -0.05 on the road.