Each week we will be posting projections for upcoming games in the form of probabilities. The model that produces the probabilities comprises a pair of logistic regressions for home and away win probabilities. The models are currently based on Expected Goals 2.0, and specifically the model utilizes information about how well each team has played when A) tied at home and B) down a goal on the road. These situations tend to be the most competitive, and the models pick up the predictive power of statistics from these situations.
Check out all current and past projections by hovering over the Projections tab in the upper right and selecting MLS Game Projections.