MLS Playoff Projections / by Drew Olsen

By Drew Olsen (@drewjolsen)

Team Semis Finals Cup Change
NYRB 0.908 0.588 0.440 0.058
VAN 0.565 0.309 0.136 -0.005
FCD 0.476 0.250 0.107 -0.033
MTL 0.589 0.235 0.088 0.004
SEA 0.524 0.230 0.080 0.012
POR 0.435 0.211 0.075 -0.003
CLB 0.411 0.148 0.069 -0.019
DCU 0.092 0.030 0.007 -0.011

Now that we're through the first round and leg-one of the quarterfinals of the MLS Playoffs, we just want to remind you about our projections for each subsequent round. The odds you see of teams advancing through the semis take into account the leg one results. The "Change" column tells how much the most recent actual result (i.e. the leg-one results) has altered the model's projection for each club's likelihood of winning MLS Cup 2015.

Throughout the playoffs, you can find our model's predictions under the "Projections" tab in the upper right. We're updating them the day after each round of games.

There's nothing new in the methodology, but here's what Matthias wrote about it last week:

The simulation is designed to follow the new MLS Playoffs format. Two-legged series, which occur in the conference semifinals and finals, are modeled using simulated scores from a bivariate Poisson model. This allows us to both precisely project outcomes, and to update the probabilities after game one of such a series. 50,000 iterations of the MLS Cup Playoffs are run, and the outcomes from those iterations are summarized to produce the projections you see above.

New York and Vancouver remain the favorites to reach MLS Cup 2015. If DC United wins MLS Cup then we're buying all our readers snow cones.