2023 Season Previews: Seattle Sounders, FC Dallas, Los Angeles FC
/We’re rolling out 2023 MLS Season previews ahead of the regular season that kicks off on Saturday, February 25 (TOMORROW!). You can find all of them here!
Seattle: A Tale of Two Emerald Cities
“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times” - Brian Schmetzer, presumably.
I’m not here to be all sunshine and roses. Last year was bad. But, also, it was awesome. Being the first MLS team to win the CONCACAF Champions League has come with a purse bulging with bragging rights. It’s not a small thing. It was a remarkable accomplishment.
The initial Champions League trophy felt great for fans, but such a huge accomplishment also compounded the “feels bad” moment that would arrive six months later in the Sounders missing out on a postseason berth for the first time since joining MLS in 2009. It’s difficult to find the answer to “What does it all mean?” following a season like that.
Was it a success or a failure? In truth I kind of dislike holistic arbitrary line-in-the sand takes. Personally, I feel it was a bit of both and if you come down somewhere along those lines too, I feel this is the most measured take.
I’ll take a page out of Ian’s book and just say as a fan, outside of the obvious horrible takes which remove humanity from those people involved or are extraordinarily cruel, I think most opinions are probably valid. Who am I to tell you how you should feel about your soccer team? If it felt bad, you just felt bad and that’s okay. If you felt good, you felt good. Soccer! Whoopie!
2022 wasn’t most cases or business as usual for the Sounders. We collectively hit just about every emotional rung in the fan experience ladder. As a result it's a bit difficult to distill into a proper analytical thought without getting a little lost in the emotional sauce. But that’s okay, we’re not robots. If you doth prick us, does not our API data stream? (it does, we have an API... *nudge* *nudge*).
If we’re being completely honest this wasn’t a great team season in a lot of ways. We obviously know they have a ton of talent but for a variety of reasons, health and injuries being the primary culprit, the team as a whole under performed relative to what their early season accolades and previous 2021 underlying numbers had pointed towards.
Obviously Joao Paulo had the unfortunate knee injury in the Champions League final but their designated players as a whole missed 60% of available regular season playing time and their first choice eleven as a whole only saw 80% of available minutes.
I think as you look at the season previous and go into the next year, It’s easy to point to injuries and say “this is what did us in, things will be different next time” but it feels legitimately unlikely for the Sounders to continue to roll critical fails on health checks as they did in 2022, especially with a much lighter season schedule ahead of them.
Unfortunately, injuries don’t explain away all the poor performances. As uncommon as it’s been over the years there were plenty of poor performances for the Rave Green. Over the stretch of 34 regular season games they saw opponents out perform them in five different important underlying categories according to the Where Goals Come From collection.
We can look at the collection of impromptu line-ups, which also correspond to tactics which have to be shifted around as a result, and realize injuries reflected not just who was on the field but how things got adjusted on the field too.
The constant rotation of player's due to the aforementioned health and injuries, add to the ancillary factors for this team. Performances stunk sometimes and while you just couldn’t always understand why, when you look back on the whole season rather than bits and pieces there is the realization of contributing factors and it becomes largely easier to digest and understand what the coaching staff and even the players who were healthy were up against.
The general perception as a result is that next time it actually will be different, or at least that’s the hope.
Are the Sounders good?
And... Well, it’s another “yes but then again no” meme themed answer which I’ve become famous for within ASA. It’s not that I’m Chidi Anagonye or anything like that but I prefer to work in shades rather than just say this is good or bad. The Sounders are without a doubt a very talented team, but I also think it’s fair to look at all the depth charts across the league and realize that, well, a lot of these teams are really good now.
This is a talented team and one that is coming into the year relatively healthy. Even if Ruidiaz doesn’t start the season ready to go, freshly acquired attacker Heber will certainly be an attacking boon and upgrade over last year's options.
They’ve not gone and upgraded a lot of positions but there wasn’t that need. They added a few youth to an already deep cast of high floor youngsters which Schmetzer leaned upon heavily last year and now have had a year to learn in a bit of trial by fire mentality.
This team has the potential to be good, even very good if things break right and their health holds. Roll a couple of ‘20’s’ and they’re seeing progress
The Nouhou Conundrum
Nouhou has been the starting left back for the past four/five-ish season while healthy, and it’s been kind of an awkward fit (When the Sounders don’t throw a three-back-set where he then becomes more of a loose fitted wandering defensive machine). Nouhou has been a darling of sorts for both the fan base and MLS media as a whole. He's a fun and exciting player that’s both easy to root for as a person and as a professional.
It’s surprising that as a player who has had some big moments internationally the last couple of years against European elite talent isn’t getting more looks by clubs abroad. I think the expectation by some was that this would be a good time for both the player and the club to part ways following the World Cup and a transfer window, but it seems like the right offer hasn’t come along.
Part of the reason this comes up isn’t that he’s bad or that the Sounders should want to get rid of talented players but rather it’s baked into a legitimate question which asks if Nouhou is the right fit for how the Sounders intend to play.
We can all see the hustle, grit, etc which he’s known for... the choo-choo express as one person I know calls it. He’s been especially keen at winning balls either in transition or in one-on-one situations. These types of specific data points haven’t been baked into on ball measurements like g+ so I want to make a point of this as a means of annotating it.This is a positive factor and contribution.
The issue however seems to be specific to outside of those dramatic defensive situations or situations that rely upon his immediate action. G+ specifically points out the amount of value that is lost with him on the ball. He’s a vulnerable passer and on the ball moments tend to be ones that leave you especially concerned and can ultimately halt attacking progress and give way to counter attacks of their own.
The Sounders didn’t need to add a DP left back but some depth would have been a boost with the loss of Medranda and the fact that Kelyn Rowe (the current honorary Brad Evans award winner) is needed to help provide depth at 9 other positions.
Where Will the Goals Come From?
The real question I have is how will the attack that looked to be a wide progressive cross attacking team attempt to manufacture goals this year? It could be argued and suggested by our data that despite the lull in production they actually over achieved in their manner of attacking in 2022.
Seattle led the league in crosses and their xG via crossing was actually very successful. But anyone that knows me, knows that I have a lot of hesitancy with this approach due to how we’ve seen teams wildly, both, under and over perform in goal scoring. It’s a very boom or bust strategy that while it has its merits is one that might be better suited for another team that doesn’t have the ball progressing/zone 14 tactical resources the Sounders have at their disposal.
As Jamon Moore has pointed out, being on the road and playing a more direct style is statistically a great way of limiting potential outcome via skill and giving yourself a much better chance against a superior team. But that’s not really the Sounders or Schmetzer’s approach.
Summation
Worst case scenario...
They miss the playoffs. Again.
Maybe the team doesn’t see growth from youth and still has injury issues from player's who are gaining in age.I could see them just missing the playoffs but in much the same way as they missed out last year. They’ll compete for most of the year and it’ll come down to the final couple of weeks. The bigger issue will likely come in response to this worst case scenario and how do they approach the ‘24 season and beyond as a result?
Best case scenario...
They win the whole thing.
Look, it’s not outside the realm of possibility with how stacked they are with talent. Forgetting the obvious with Paulo, Lodeiro and Ruidiaz, who all have had cases in the last three seasons you could make for them to be in the MVP conversation. They also have Heber, Morris, Rusnak, Roldan,and Frei.
Add to all of those a consistent backline with youth available up the spine to provide depth that has already had bright moments. There is a lot here that could go very right for the Sounders and very wrong for the rest of the Western Conference.
A broad 2023 most likely scenario...
They still struggle with health, but with more seasoned cadre of youths who have more experience those key outages aren’t as significant. They will have fewer minutes over the season and as such fewer gaps to fill which leads to getting those big pieces back for big moments.
I’m willing to go out on a limb and say they’re going to make the playoffs and very likely have streaks that make the rest of the Western Conference sit and recall both who this team is and what they’re capable of achieving.
That said if the youth don’t continue to progress and the age of this team catches up to them it could be another frustrating year of watching them sit around 8th or 9th trying to break into the last couple of playoffs spots.
FC Dallas: Trimming the Hedges, 2 Lletget to Quignon
FC Dallas were one of the feel good stories of the 2022 season. A clear identity, young players, decent soccer - they’re fun! Dallas had the 5th best xGD in the West, including Nashville who now depart for the East, but that number was a whopping -1.1. Moving into 2023, this team made a bunch of pretty conflicting moves. Let’s take a look.
Outgoings
Out goes club man Matt Hedges. Man, this sucks. It’s probably the right time, Hedges is turning 33 and was headed for a mega contract. But still, lame. Hedges showed some pretty significant signs of revival last season putting up his best g+ season since 2014. Some of that is how g+ works for CBs. Dallas did a lot of in possession build up with their centerbacks being asked to progress the ball into midfield, which Hedges did well, showing up in his passing. At the same time, Dallas probably asked their centerbacks to make more plays defensively than they would have liked so you see a lot of interrupting value. You might be asking yourself, Kieran, if g+ measures good stuff and his interrupting is high, isn’t that a good thing? Not quite. High interrupting is generally correlated with being bad. Defending your box gives you high interrupting g+ actions, but needing to defend your box is generally a bad thing.
Also headed to the 6ix is Brandon Servania in a trade for somebody we’ll discuss in a minute. Servania thins out FCD’s midfield a little bit, but the pipeline from NTSC flows freely and Servania maybe hadn’t hit the development accelerators the club had hoped for at this point. This trade lets Dallas retool a little bit.
Incomings
Maarten Paes comes back to Texas on a permanent deal, a nice boost as he was one of the most consistent goalkeepers in MLS in 2022. As does Geovane Jesus, who spent last season grabbing minutes for Cruzeiro. I’m not going to pretend to know anything about him, but Dallas were desperate for some two way fullback play in a bad way last season. Compared to the average MLS fullback, not even one FCD fullback cracked 0 on g+. All below average. All the same profile. OK defensively, no ability to pass out of pressure or break lines, no ability to be a final third threat from fullback.
Also joining, the other half of the Servania trade, is Jesus Jimenez. Luckily for the Dallas fans reading this, I (rather unfortunately) got to watch all of JJ’s minutes in 2022 in Toronto. Here’s the scoop. Jimenez is a legitimately gifted box connector and linker. He has really good sets and bounces and layoffs and flicks. So good I’m still unsure how he couldn’t click with the Italians. At the same time, he basically takes no shots, doesn’t like to run into the box, and strongly prefers to go play left wing or as a 10 for long stretches. I am not super hopeful for you. If I’m trying to be positive, I think there’s potentially some really interesting 4-2-3-1 or 4-4-2 dynamics of him and Ferreira together and if there isn’t, he is sort of a busted version of Ferreira. Ferreira excels dropping deep and linking. People like to call him a false 9, which isn’t really true since he still does all the shot getting stuff, but he does his best work connecting and then arriving for shots. Jimenez, in a way, is similar. My ultimate trade grade depends a lot on how much salary TFC take back, but I think there were probably better packages for Servania out there.
How is this team going to score goals?
Dallas had the third worst xG generated in the entire Western conference in 2022, and 50% of that was Jesus Ferreira and noted not big xG generation guy Paul Arriola. Arriola is a huge piece and I love the non shot getting things he brings to the table, but I don’t think there is more juice to squeeze there. Velasco, while exhilarating to watch, feels like there is a lot of room for growth there. He is a well rounded creator with reasonable underlying expected numbers (0.4 xG+xA p96) on really low touch volume. Velasco is below the 40th percentile for his position for touches in the final third. If Dallas can find more ways to get him the ball with an advantage, I think there is a lot of scope for some more attacking juice in Frisco.
What is the ceiling of this style?
Dallas are very tactically coherent. They want to play really really slow, with tight spacing, so when they lose it they can counterpress and win it back. In possession, they’re looking for Ferreira to connect then spring a runner behind, but again, not letting themselves get unraveled structurally. The fullbacks don’t push a lot, the 8’s aren’t charging from midfield. Structure structure structure. Not giving up cheap stuff in transition and being coherent in possession is a really high floor. I guess I’m concerned how much scope for growth there is? Without dynamic game changers from midfield, a real 8/10 who unlocks things in a big way, or front line players who can self create to supplement the structured pattern-esque stuff, I’m not sure where they can go from here.
Either way, I enjoyed watching Dallas a lot in 2022. They were my unofficial 2nd team. But this is not a team of 20 year olds developing anymore, the expectations are real in 2023. Pressure makes diamonds.
LAFC: How to invest your bale-out
By Kieran Doyle
LAFC. What a year. Kings of the Castle. After much adieu about #1 seeds making MLS Cup and making sure we had the best teams in the final, we had the best teams in the final. After much adieu about the best teams not winning MLS Cup, the best team won MLS Cup. Cheers to you. Unfortunately, MLS waits for no team and you go again a very short 2 months later.
Notable Moves Out
Headed straight to the links is Gareth Bale, riding into the sunset of his injury time goal to tie things up against the Union. This is maybe not that notable given how little he played, but given the rumors about how his deal was structured for this coming season, his retirement likely opened up significant roster flexibility for the Black and Gold in 2023.
Latif Blessing makes his way to the colder side of the country and the New England Revolution. Blessing wasn’t a critical member of the team in Los Angeles last season but has more or less been the best 4th choice CM in the league across his entire time with LAFC. His g+ production took a pretty noticeable stepback in 2022, maybe that’s why he’s being moved on, but another pretty significant hit to LAFC’s depth nonetheless. In much the same vein, Ibeagha departs to FC Dallas in search of a larger role.
The most noteworthy departure is that of should-be-star striker Chicho Arango to Liga MX for.. Reasons. Look, Arango put up 36 goals and assists on 32 expected goals and assists in 40 90’s during his time in MLS. You can quibble about how much he contributes to possession play and how good a presser he is, but I don’t think he’s bad enough at any of those things to dismiss frankly insane production. Big big big miss.
Notable Arrivals
Stipe Biuk - a wonderkid phenom in every sense of the word. Now 20, he hasn’t quite turned the potential into on pitch output at Hajduk Split in Croatia. We’re stuck with WyScout data but his 0.28 xG+xA is maybe not what you’re hoping for on an $8M transfer fee. Where he does shine is as a pass before the pass guy. His 1.5 non cross passes into the penalty area would be something like 90th percentile among midfielders in MLS.
Aaron Long - LAFC’s recruitment strategy has very much shifted the dial a lot more towards proven quantities in MLS since Steve Cherundolo has taken the reins, this follows the same path. Long is perhaps an awkward fit for LAFC’s heavy possession style, but is a talented defender and a menace on set pieces. G+ didn’t like Long in 2022, but doesn’t generally like his profile of defender. Keep an eye on how he settles in possession.
Sergi Palencia/Timothy Tillman - Palencia is a right back or right wingback who has bounced around teams of a decent level. LAFC didn’t have much depth at fullback last year, so at worst this is good depth. Tillman is an interesting piece because of his profile. Just turned 24 and played 2000 Bundesliga minutes? Sign me up. His numbers look extremely meh, but there’s maybe some signal on his ability to burst from midfield with his high box touches and progressive passes received, and some pressing nous with a high amount of attacking third defensive action.
The Optimist’s Case
The Black and Gold are basically running back the same team, right? They kept hold of Cifuentes, the 2nd leading g+ earner per 96 in the 2022 season. This isn’t a guarantee for the year, but Cifu’s ability to keep the attacking blender going limits a lot of downside for this team. They got elite fullback play out of Hollingshead at +0.08 g+ per 96 above the average MLS fullback, while successfully managing Vela’s minutes down the stretch. Adding Palencia and Tillman covers up some of of the depth holes with a lot of upside on peak aged guys. Biuk is a super high potential young player without a load of pressure to perform right away. Long is a proven MLS vet who adds a vertical set piece threat, a deep deep well in the many knockout games LAFC have ahead of them. Add in an open DP slot heading into a summer window with a pretty healthy wallet? Huge opportunity to repeat in 2023.
The Pessimist’s Case
Pft, I can barely believe myself above and I wrote it. I am concerned. Not miss the playoffs concerned, honestly not even like finish lower than third concern, but concerned I am. This team has no striker. You can manufacture some stuff with Opoku as your striker, truly, but Arango was such a focal point and shot monster you let others grow off of the space he occupied. LAFC lead the league in box touches in 2022, Arango was a whole quarter of those touches while he was on the field. Opoku has a lot of great off ball movement, but I think his ability to pin two center backs and attack crosses and squares and cutbacks is a big loss.
Add in the loss of key depth options - think, Bale isn’t available to come off the bench, there are world’s where LAFC lose last year - I think this team is really thin. If we take the adage of vaguely 50% of transfers working out, you probably need another midfielder in the summer. Ultimately, a little too much hinges on who they bring in as a 9 or as a DP in the summer for me to be comfortable with where this roster is headed. Now, this isn’t really anyone’s fault. We see time and time again, team wins MLS Cup, immediately guts their depth. The way MLS Cup winning bonuses are applied to the cap makes it so. Such is life. Heading into a season with CONCACAF Champions League, Leagues Cup, US Open Cup, MLS, an expanded Playoff Format? Maybe not the year to test depth. Good luck!
