We’re releasing team previews ahead of the NWSL season that kicks off on Saturday, March 25! Our first edition includes Kansas City Current, OL Reign, and Washington Spirit.

Current will be electric in 2023

By Kieran Doyle

What a year for the Current. Going from the worst team in the league to being 90 minutes away from NWSL Championship glory in the space of one season is a story that hits the crux of being a sports fan in North America. Good talent acquisition moves, an in-form goalkeeper, and some bounces and a trophy is yours. Let’s discuss the foundation that the Current built in 2022 and see why everyone should be hyped going into the 2023 NWSL season.

A Look Back at 2022

On the face of it, KC were a pretty mid team. If we put the final aside due to the randomness of playoffs, and just look at the regular season, they are the middiest of mid teams to have ever been mid. Here is a list of stats that are either vaguely predictive of team quality or I like to look at as an indicator of team quality: xG, xG against, xG differential, passes into the final third, passes into the penalty area, progressive passes, progressive carries, goals added for (g+), goals added against, and goals added difference. Of that behemoth list, the Current rank between fourth and ninth (30th to 70th percentile) in every single one, except goals added against where they rank second (but second through fifth are separated by a hair’s breadth). Normally, this is a criticism, but being middle of the pack after being horrific is a good thing.

Fig. Improvement! Slow and steady wins the race.

Well, intrepid reader, now is where you ask “Kieran, why are you so excited about the midness?” That’s a great question, and there are a few reasons.

The first is that the team is already doing pretty smart things that scale with the high powered talent they got this offseason (more on that later). They play lots of passes in behind to get pacey strikers running. Goalkeepers facing KC were forced into making the second-most defensive actions outside of their penalty area in 2022. Similarly, they do not cross. KC recorded the fewest crosses into the box in the entire league last season. Smart point number three, they have a very clear defensive identity. KC used a player oriented press in midfield with their press, but not everywhere. This is a crucial detail. Player oriented pressing everywhere is insane. Your players get tired and hate you and it does not last. But, matching up in midfield makes building sustainably very difficult. Opposition teams hit the most long passes against the Current than any other team in the league. Similarly, goalkeepers had the second highest percentage of playing long. Opposition possessions starting from contested midfield possessions every time is great.
The last big positive from last year is that of Matt Potter. Formerly of the U-23 national team and the Oklahoma Sooners program, you’ve got a coach with a solid network on the college and youth player development side, but you’ve also just got a dude who can coach. Take the five game rolling NPxGD chart from last season below. Potter started out with mostly 4-3-3’s and 4-2-3-1’s, before swapping to some back three ideas before eventually settling on the 3-5-2 on May 30. Check the change in that chart after that point. Finding the right shape when you have a clear set of principles and the talent fits the principles in weird ways is a real challenge, one Potter passed with flying colours.

*Fig. KC changed shapes from 4-3-3 / 4-2-3-1 to 3-5-2 permanently on May 30, within 5 games they were a positive xGD team.*

*Table. xGD per game vs team shape in the 2022 season *including Challenge Cup*. Take this with a heavy dose of preseason playground tournament and sample size salt, but agendas gotta agend.*

Hear ye, Hear ye, 2023 Approaches

Notable Transactions

*deep breath in*

In: Debinha (!!!), Vanessa DiBernardo, Morgan Gautrat, Hanna Glas, Mimmi Larsson, Michelle Cooper, Alexa Spaanstra

Out: Lynn Williams (womp womp), Elyse Bennett, Sam Mewis (season ending injury)

*exhale*

A lot has changed. Sorta. Lynn Williams unfortunately only played one match before her hamstring injury kept her out for most of 2022. She heads to Gotham for the pick that eventually becomes Michelle Cooper. Now look, I love Michelle Cooper. Thirty-one goals and 16 assists in 40 college games is bonkers. But Williams is different. I can only imagine this is salary cap tomfoolery, so we’ll accept it and move on. Sam Mewis being put on season ending injury again is tough to cope with as well.

On the incoming side, oh my. DiBernardo was a legitimately productive player in 2022 for a less-than-great Red Stars team and has always had solid ball movement numbers forward. Gautrat didn’t really play last year, but has been an 8+ progressive passes 4+ tackles and interceptions per 90 midfielder, which for the uninitiated is a lot. Hanna Glas has been perhaps the most productive attacking fullback/wingback in the world over the last two seasons at Bayern. We don’t have good xData for the Bundesliga, but 0.4 non penalty goals and assists per 90 is a lot (WyScout has her closer to 0.3 xG+xA per 90). Glas and Mace are a staggeringly dynamic wingback duo. Glas suffered an ACL injury this offseason and has missed Bayern’s 22-23 campaign so far, so we may need to hold our horses on Glas until her return. Mimmi Larsson has maybe flown under the radar but has been a consistently productive player for Rosengård in Sweden, as a 9, a winger, starting, off the bench, just very solid attacking depth. We’ve already talked about how crazy Michelle Cooper is going to be and Spaanstra is a well rounded attacking contributor who contributes goals and sets up for others. That’s about it! Lot of talent coming in!

Wait, what, I’m forgetting someone?

*Fig. Bah gawd, that’s Debinha’s music!*

In the inaugural year of NWSL free agency, KC Current caught the prize on the market. Débora Cristiane de Oliveira, Debinha. That g+ wheel is a work of art. If the criticism of KC in 2022 was that they were an organized team who lacked creativity in attack, look no further. One-woman attack is here. If we look at cumulative g+ earned over the whole of Debinha’s career in North Carolina, she is third all time behind Sam Kerr (lol still up there despite being gone for 3 years) and Lynn Williams. I don’t even think she had a great year last year and she walked into three quarters of an expected goal or assist per game. This is the move that elevates you a step beyond.

I have some questions about all the talent on this roster, it doesn’t really scream 3-5-2 to me, but there’s a lot of ‘tweener attackers who can do lots of not-pure-striker stuff, so it wouldn’t shock me to see Matt Potter give 3-4-3 another go. I wouldn’t rule out a return to back 4’s either, but think that would be a pretty big waste of Glas and Mace. Either way, I am electrified to keep up with the Current in 2023.

Will OL Reign over the NWSL?

By Om Arvind

OL Reign have a strong case for being recognized as the best team in the NWSL over the past two campaigns, having finished first in the regular season in 2022 and second the year before.

The only reason that statement might be controversial (besides Portland being the other competitor) is because of their failures in the playoffs, where they were thwarted in the semi-finals on successive occasions. While anyone on the Reign would gladly trade the Shield for the ultimate prize, their league record shouldn’t be dismissed offhand, as its larger sample size presents a more reliable framework from which to assess underlying quality in comparison to one-off knockout games.

*OL Reign created more than enough to deserve at least a goal in their playoff semi-final vs. Kansas City, but they were thwarted by Adrianna Franch’s legendary performance (source:* *@arielle_dror*).

Speaking of “underlying” stuff, the advanced stats back this up. In 2021, they had the second best xG in the NWSL per our in-house model, fielding an attack that was some mix of Dzsenifer Marozsán, Eugenie Le Sommer, Bethany Balcer, Rose Lavelle, Jess Fishlock, and Megan Rapinoe.

Although the Reign lost Le Sommer and Maroszán the following season, their numbers actually improved, going from 1.53 to 1.69 xG per game – a testament to the level of talent the Reign still had on the books and coach Laura Harvey’s ability to adapt. To top it off, they experienced gains on defense as well, conceding the least amount of goals in the 2022 regular season and boasting an xG figure of 1.05 per game – the best in the league (up from second the prior year).

Using a five-game rolling average in order to control for excessive variance, we can see that the Reign consistently created higher-quality non-penalty chances than they conceded.

When adjusting for team strength, it looks even better:

Tactics & Team Style

Seattle’s success against the ball was driven by a 4-2-3-1 defensive setup that asked them to contest rivals at a mid-high stance, looking to pin play to the touchline before moving in to press.

As can be seen in the above video, there was significant emphasis on shutting off the center, with the role of the wide players being key. The two wingers would almost react counter to each other depending on where the opposition attacked, with the far-side winger pushing up and the near-side winger dropping. The former’s positioning was essential to locking opponents to one side of the pitch, creating a select, manageable area for the Reign to close down. With Rapinoe ready to rush the CB or check back into midfield, her teammates were afforded greater leeway to aggressively follow their marks, thereby ensuring tighter ball-sided compactness.

Rapinoe’s opportunism in the second clip was particularly noteworthy and emblematic of the tenor of Laura Harvey’s defensive system. While OL Reign were proactive, they were not a pedal-to-the-metal pressing side. Instead, they waited for their moments, with the all-important wide figures often deciding when to strike based on their own, transient positioning and its relation to the evolving tactical context.

*Rapinoe’s and Balcer’s percentile ranks in tackling+intercepting are a decent proxy to show just how engaged Reign’s attackers needed to be defensively (source: MCLACHBOT APP).*

On offense, things were even more variable. Based on fitness and a changing squad composition, Harvey fielded numerous attacks over the course of the season in a hybrid 4-2-3-1/4-3-3. Initially, she favored Balcer leading the line with Tziarra King and Ally Watt regularly rotating into slots on either side of her. Rapinoe cut into the latter duo’s minutes when she returned from injury and took back her usual position on the left.

Then, Reign made midseason moves for Kim Little and Jordyn Huitema, which resulted in the frequent use of Lavelle as a false right winger in order to accommodate the Arsenal legend. Towards the end of the season, as the Reign geared up for the playoffs (and Little’s brief loan ended), Harvey shifted Lavelle back into midfield and slotted Balcer on the right, with Huitema keeping the striker spot.

Regardless of who was in the lineup, OL adopted a fairly direct approach on offense. The reason for this is simple – Harvey had a number of good to great off-ball movers at her disposal in the form of Huitema, Balcer, Rapinoe, and Fishlock, and capable long-distance passers in Sofia Huerta and Alana Cook. It made a lot of sense to exploit these qualities by trying to feed runs in behind.

Once in the final third, the Reign relied on crossing to create a significant portion of their chances, again taking advantage of their qualities in attack: Huitema and Balcer’s box presence; Fishlock’s late runs; and Huerta’s and Rapinoe’s quality of delivery.

*Note the high percentage of box entries coming from crosses (source: MCLACHBOT APP).*

Harvey has made this system more dynamic than it might seem on the surface through clever lineup construction. She has an affinity for unconventional choices on the right wing, choosing Balcer to fix defenders and offer goal threat and picking Lavelle for creativity and central overloads. This not only reveals Harvey’s trust in Huerta to own the right wing, but displays the coach’s deft understanding of how her profiles interact, crafting relationships that end up dismarking her attackers and generating lethal counter-movements.

OL Reign’s pass network vs. the KC Current: Balcer was significantly narrower than a traditional winger and also received in striker-like positions. As a result, Huerta was more advanced and offensive than her counterpart, Lauren Barnes (source: *@arielle_dror*).

For a more detailed example of this, examine how Balcer on the right worked with Maroszán and Fishlock as a false nine in 2021 – an experiment that has continued to be effective even in the absence of Maroszán and next to a more traditional center forward in Huitema.

Harvey’s experimentation with various degrees of narrowness and spatial occupation regularly befuddled defenses and allowed her players to receive in quality locations, making the Reign’s heavy crossing strategy and selective directness more effective than it would be in another side. Thus, while it can be tempting to brand the Reign’s tactics as brute force, that opinion overlooks the fluidity and positional complexity that underpins their offensive mechanics.

Key Players – Underrated Rapinoe?

There was probably a time some years ago when Rapinoe was overrated, taking home the Ballon d’Or in 2019 primarily off the back of World Cup performances and reputation. But it seems that tides have shifted since then, with people (especially non-NWSL fans) quick to point out that the 37-year-old is past her peak while ignoring her extremely strong performance indicators.

To put it simply: Rapinoe’s advanced stats are absurd for her age. She was second in the league in goals added per 96 minutes and topped the charts in expected assists p96 among those who had played 600 or more minutes in the regular season and playoffs. She would have handily made our g+ Best 11 had she not fallen just short of our minutes threshold.

*Rapinoe’s receiving figure reflects her ability to get on the ball in extremely valuable territory.*

How is that possible? Well, on top of still being pretty good at everything, Rapinoe is one of the savviest off-ball movers of all time. Despite a decline in explosiveness, her sense of timing and angles are so refined that she consistently loses her mark to set up simple, high-quality assists (this piece goes into greater detail).

One method she has an affinity for is exploiting the blindside to receive switches:

This isn’t a case of an old player doing relatively well for their geriatric years – it’s representative of someone who remains one of the most impactful footballers in the NWSL when fit.

In addition to their ageless wonder, the Reign have retained a practically untouched core from last season. Jess Fishlock, a perennial MVP candidate and another genius off-ball mover, comprises an elite midfield alongside line-breaking savant Rose Lavelle.

Up top, Bethany Balcer and Huitema offer additional offensive punch and act as foils for the aforementioned duo.

At the back, Huerta and Cook stand near the top of the league in their positions, bolstered by goalkeeper Phallon Tullis-Joyce, who contributed above average value.

With minimal roster turnover aside from some midseason departures (Ally Watt and Kim Little) and additions like Emily Sonnett (Washington Spirit), Elyse Bennet (Kansas City Kurrent), Luany (Grêmio) and a couple of draftees, it appears as if Reign believe that the path they have been on is largely working.

The numbers and analysis back this up, suggesting that they should once again be considered a favorite to go all the way. However, as people love to remind us, football isn’t played on a spreadsheet, and anything can happen in the fleeting chaos of a single game.

That’s why OL Reign’s renewed quest for glory will prove to be compelling spectacle rather than a foregone conclusion.

Washington Spirit RULES

By Nate Gilman

2022 was not the title defense the Washington Spirit would’ve hoped. Despite a promising start to the season, reaching the Challenge Cup final, very little went right during the regular season. The Spirit finished the regular season with 19 points, the second-fewest in the league.

And the team couldn’t even add a top draft talent like other similarly positioned teams because what became the second overall pick had been traded in 2020 as a part of the deal for Emily Sonnett.

Even so, there’s optimism in Washington for 2023. Part of that starts with the underperformance of 2022. The Spirit finished the NWSL regular season with a -3.20 expected goals difference, the fifth worst in the league. This isn’t to say Washington was a good team in 2022 but there was certainly an element of bad luck. According to ASA’s xPoints, the Spirit’s advanced numbers were closer to that of a 28-point team, a lot closer to the playoff line than 2022’s final table indicated.

And Mark Parsons returns to NWSL, and Washington, managing the team. Getting the most out of an unbalanced roster will be a challenge but banking on a multi-time NWSL Shield-winning coach seems like a pretty good place to start.

Making Parsons’ job easier is the already existing offensive infrastructure already in place could, and maybe should, be one of the league’s most exciting, headlined by the trio of Ashley Hatch, Ashley Sanchez, and Trinity Rodman. Last season, the three combined to score 16 of the Spirit’s 25 goals and Sanchez and Rodman combined for seven of the team’s 16 assists. There’s a very good chance all three will be headed to the World Cup this summer and they should continue to thrive in the NWSL as well.

Hatch and Sanchez really deserve their own sections in this preview but space is limited and Rodman is the headliner.

Just How Good Can Trinity Rodman Be?

Trinity Rodman has been a revelation in her first two NWSL seasons. Despite playing zero minutes of college soccer, Rodman’s game immediately translated at the professional level. She’s all but a lock to be on the plane to the World Cup this summer and, at the very least, should figure to contribute off the bench.

Trying to describe ball progression to someone who has never watched a soccer game? Have them watch Trinity Rodman for 10 minutes. She’s either moving the ball forward on the dribble or finding space to receive it. Per FBref, Rodman’s 87 progressive carries ranked 2nd in the league (trailing only Sophia Smith’s 88) and her 160 progressive passes received was 2nd most (again, only behind Smith’s 161).

The biggest difference between Smith and Rodman comes in goal production. Smith’s 9.1 non-penalty expected goals led the NWSL while Rodman’s 4.7 NPxG ranked 14th. Smith took 5.84 shots per 90 minutes compared to Rodman’s 3.05.

The comparison isn’t one-for-one. Rodman spends a lot of her time in wider areas of the field while Smith plays through the middle. But if Rodman can get in spots to take a few more shots in 2023, she might be ready to take another step, which should tantalize Spirit and USWNT fans while worrying the rest of the league (and the world).

Piecing Together The Backline

The state of the backline is a little more complicated. Emily Sonnett and Kelley O’Hara are no longer on the roster, traded to OL Reign and signing with NY/NJ Gotham in free agency, respectively. Despite getting a combined 1,220 minutes from the pair in 2022 due to injury, the Spirit have some questions on the backline.

One defensive surety is 2022 ASA Best XI member Sam Staab. Her passing range gives the Spirit another option for moving the ball up the field, whether she’s part of a passing move of the back or playing direct to a forward.

The Spirit’s defensive questions include just about every other position. Amber Brooks played more than 1,000 minutes in 2022 and looks to be the frontrunner to pair with Staab at center back. Brooks’ -0.02 g+/96 in 1,420 2022 minutes at least gives the Spirit a solid, if slightly below NWSL average, baseline in central defense.

There are more questions at fullback. Offseason addition and Canadian international Gabrielle Carle should step into a vacant spot bringing some versatility, having played at both right and leftback at the international level. Anna Heilferty, a mainstay at the position last year, tore her ACL in preseason so Parsons has been open about thinking outside the box.

He noted that he sees Dorian Bailey and Maddie Elwell as fullbacks and Tara McKeown as a centerback. Whether those moves help shore up a backline in flux remains to be seen but Parsons’ willingness to try different options will be an interesting storyline to follow at the very least.

If Parsons can piece together a functional backline from the roster as it currently stands, the Spirit should be in for a better season than the previous one. Even if some of those newly-minted defenders offer more going forward than in defense, the Spirit’s robust attack should cover up some of those defensive deficiencies.

It seems a safe bet to expect lots of goals, both for and against, in Spirit games. At the very least, that will be a good thing for neutrals. What it means for where the Spirit will finish in 2023 will depend on if the attack is as good as it can be and whether the defense can prevent just enough to keep them in contention.

American Soccer Analysis

2023 NWSL Season Previews: Kansas City Current, OL Reign, and Washington Spirit