2024 NWSL Season Previews: Chicago Red Stars and Kansas City Current
/We’re releasing team previews ahead of the NWSL season that kicks off on Saturday, March 16! Our second edition includes last season’s bottom dwellers, the Chicago Red Stars and the Kansas City Current. You can find all of our season previews here!
Donaldson & Swanson: Partners in goals
By Nate Gilman
To say 2023 didn’t go well for the Chicago Reds Stars would be an understatement. The team’s last place finish with 24 points from league play somehow looks better than the underlying numbers would suggest. In all competitions, the Red Stars amassed a -22.17 expected goals difference. The next worst team? The Houston Dash with a -6.04 xGD mark. And the Dash finished just four points ahead of the Red Stars in the table.
The 2023 team had the worst attack in NWSL, mustering just 22.15 xG and 25 goals across 22 league games. But that figure was at least within touching distance of other anemic offenses in the league. Defensively is where Chicago was in a league of their own (in a very, very bad way). The Red Stars conceded 48 goals on 44.32 xGA. That’s 15 more goals than KC Current conceded and nearly 10 xGA more than Racing Louisville allowed.
More context: the Red Stars’ 2023 xGA and xGD numbers were both third-worst on a per game basis since 2016 according to ASA’s data.
But changes at the top of the organization including new ownership, a new general manager, and a new head coach, could put the Red Stars onto a more positive trajectory. Richard Feuz, the new GM, comes to Chicago from Switzerland’s Servette FC and new coach Lorne Donaldson joins after his role coaching Jamaica’s Women’s National Team through the 2023 World Cup.
The Swanson effect
Any discussion of the Red Stars’ fortunes should start in one place: Mallory Swanson (neé Pugh). There should be reason for optimism about the Red Stars’ attack improving in 2024 simply due to the presence of a healthy Swanson. Before a knee injury in April 2023, she was primed to be a key attacking piece for the U.S. Women’s National Team at the 2023 World Cup. Let’s not forget how good she was in 2022, albeit in just over 1,300 minutes. That season, she amassed 15.93 xG+xA, trailing only Sophia Smith and Alex Morgan.
Swanson trained with the USWNT last month during its preparations for the CONCACAF Women’s Gold Cup and looks to be ready to contribute when the NWSL season kicks off. Assuming she’s fully healthy for the season, Swanson’s elite ability on the ball can carry a lot of a team’s offensive weight. Any improvement to the Red Stars’ fortunes in 2023 will depend on Swanson’s health and how quickly she can recapture her form from previous seasons.
Defensive turnover
Perhaps in response to the defensive struggles of 2023, the Red Stars will be fielding a much changed defense this season. Tierna Davidson and Casey Krueger signed in free agency with NY/NJ Gotham and the Washington Spirit respectively in free agency. Fullback Arin Wright was traded to Racing Louisville in exchange for the draft pick that became Jameese Joseph and $125,000 in allocation money. Those three players combined for 68 starts in all competitions and nearly 6,700 minutes on the field for the Red Stars in 2023.
Enter Sam Staab, the headliner of the Red Stars’ offseason defensive acquisitions, acquired via trade with Washington for the third overall pick in the 2024 NWSL Draft. In Staab, Chicago gets a reliable, extremely durable center back with an elite skill: passing.
Adding a player with a proven track record of finding teammates in dangerous areas should be a huge boost for a team that had the second fewest touches in the attacking third of the field in 2023. Staab’s passing deserves a deeper look, however. Any conversation about Staab’s passing value should include one major caveat: set pieces. As you can see, Staab’s role as a set piece taker, especially corners, has boosted her G+ passing value.
The same is true with long throw-ins in the final third. Having an elite set-piece deliverer and long-throw specialist can be a huge value add, especially for a team struggling to score goals, assuming they are deployed correctly, as Staab was in Washington. Taking out her elite set-piece delivery, Staab still offers well above average ball progression numbers for her position.
She will undoubtedly help the Red Star’s ball progression and will be able to help with one of the most important things Chicago needs to do to improve in 2024: get the ball to a healthy and aforementioned Mal Swanson.
Replacing Krueger and Wright, the Red Stars turned to outside players outside of the organization. Natalia Kuikka signed a three-year deal in free agency, leaving the Portland Thorns. Kuikka should bring stability at full back, though according to G+, she played at close to a league average level in 2023.
German fullback Maximiliane Rall signed a one-year deal with the Red Stars, joining from Bayern Munich, adding an attacking dimension to the back line. How Donaldson sets up his fullbacks will be something worth paying attention to when the season kicks off.
Midfield questions
How Donaldson sets up Chicago’s midfield will be something else to monitor as the season progresses. Julia Bianchi and Cari Roccarro, two players tapped in for the frequently-used double pivot, are returning, but 10th-overall pick in the 2024 Draft Leilanni Nesbeth should challenge for minutes.
Getting more ball progression from the midfield is a must in 2024, but who Donaldson will be relying on when the season opens remains an open question. Oft-played attacking midfielder Yūki Nagasato left for Houston in free agency so, assuming he opts to retain the 4-2-3-1, Donaldson will have to find a replacement at that position as well.
Shotstopping woes
We can’t finish this preview without talking about the goalkeeping. Yes, the Red Stars were a near-historically bad defensive team in 2023. But Alyssa Naeher’s shotstopping did the team no favors. Per ASA’s numbers, she allowed more than nine more goals than she should have based on the quality of shots she faced. Sure, she faced a league-high 146 shots in her more than 2,300 minutes but Naeher’s shotstopping has been trending the wrong way since an elite 2020 season.
All signs point to Naeher returning as Chicago’s number one option in goal as the addition of Jamaican international Sydner Schneider shouldn’t challenge Naeher on the depth chart.
Improved goalkeeping won’t fix all of the Red Stars’ problems defensively but even just average shotstopping would make a huge difference. Could Naeher rebound to her old form in goal? It’s possible but don’t bet on it. If she doesn’t, even with an improved defense in front of her, it could be another season full of goals conceded by the Red Stars. Supporters will hope that Swanson’s return will at least keep games more competitive, however.
The future is bright in Kansas City for the low, low price of $800
By Evan Davis
2024 was supposed to be the moment the wave crested for the Kansas City Current.
Chris and Angie Long had spent three years laying the groundwork to tap into the passion of the fans and give the Kansas City Current pride of place in the local sports landscape. The side managed an appearance in the 2022 NWSL Championship, and then proceeded to Hoover up every major free agent in the offseason. With Debinha, Morgan Gautrat, and Vanessa DiBernardo patrolling their midfield, breakout star Cece Kizer poised to become even better, and No. 2 overall draft pick Michelle Cooper parking herself on the front line, the 2023 season could only build on that success. A potential trophy winner would then walk into their brand-new stadium buoyed by the rapturous cries of over 11,000 adoring fans.
My oh my, what a difference a year makes.
Just about everything that could go wrong for the Current did go wrong. Some of it was a genuine surprise (Adrianna Franch’s case of the yips, a glut of key injuries), some of it was spectacularly self-inflicted (Camille Ashton’s shock trades of players and firing of head coach Matt Potter), and some of it was bad luck (a virtual tie with Washington for worst difference between their non-penalty goal differential and their npxG differential).
Ashton’s first step toward putting the pieces back together was hiring Vlatko Andonovski as head coach and sporting director. There could have been no other path once it was clear that the Longs and Ashton refused to name a permanent head coach as the season progressed, and once Andonovski officially became available after resigning as U.S. women’s national team head coach in August, that was it. Andonovski has called Kansas City home for 23 years. He has a pre-existing relationship with the Longs. In many ways, he is the sun around which girls’ and women’s soccer spins in the city. His hiring was a logistical no-brainer.
On the soccer side, it’s clear that Vlatko has an image of how he wants the Current to play: pull wide attackers into central channels, overload the box, and use the midfield primarily as a progressive rather than a defensive weapon. KC traded vertical dribbler Cece Kizer for inverted winger Nichelle Prince from Houston. They signed Brazilian center forward Bia Zaneratto from Palmeiras. The central attacking channel will be prized, just as it was when Andonovski ran the U.S. tactical strategy. Bia’s Brazilian compatriot Lauren Costa will be available for the full season to pair with Elizabeth Ball in central defense. The future was planned for with the signings of teenagers Alex Pfeiffer and Claire Hutton. They bought low on big attacking upside with Malawi international Temwa Chawinga. A finally healthy Hanna Glas adds competition at right back with Izzy Rodriguez.
But all is not well in the state of Missouri. Kizer was allegedly blindsided by the move to Houston, just as Lynn Williams had been a year before when she was shipped to Gotham. Potter’s firing only three games into the regular season has never been adequately explained, especially since players have yet to publicly express any dissatisfaction with him. And then there is the spectacular own goal of charging season ticket holders about $800 for parking during the team’s 13 home games. The $50-per-game parking cost is steeper than many game tickets. The vibes were supposed to be immaculate heading into 2024; now, they are anything but.
THE GOAL SCORERS: “So wait right here, and I will hurry, I'll be back in the time it takes to break a heart”
Though Prince may fit Andonovski’s desired system better than Kizer, she represents a big step down in production as a forward. Kizer was the brightest attacking talent the side had since she joined the club in 2022. Prince, meanwhile, is three years older than Kizer, managed to see the field for less than half the year last year thanks to an Achilles rupture, and is decidedly not on Kizer’s level.
Using Prince on the left side of a trident with Michelle Cooper and either Bia or Kristen Hamilton feels incisive on its face, but Prince is already likely to miss some games to start the season thanks to a calf injury sustained during the Concacaf W Gold Cup. That level of injury struggles makes one wonder if she can recapture her 2021 and 2022 form.
Who will score the goals, then? Michelle Cooper, the No. 2 overall draft pick in 2023, came into the league hot and hyped. Then she managed to score a single non-penalty goal in more than 1,800 regular-season minutes. Brutal stuff. Her -0.15 npG-npxG/96 was 6th-lowest among the 49 attacking players who logged at least 1,000 minutes in the regular season, so she was clearly snakebitten. Even so, 0.20 npxG/96 placed her 28th on that 49-player leaderboard. Cooper was vividly average despite the finishing luck.
There’s no reason to think Cooper can’t improve. She’s only 21. Hamilton, meanwhile, is the finished article. The impending 32-year-old missed the first two months of last season thanks to injury, and only tallied two full-90-minute games all year.
There is a certain natural balance to using Cooper and Hamilton together: the dribbling service artist on one side, the quality-chance-creating box patroller on the other. Bia is likely to fill Hamilton’s role when she plays, and should maintain such a balance. The problem is that while everyone’s jobs complement each other, nobody’s doing them at a playoff-contender level.
Furthermore, Bia and Chawinga are a bit mysterious. Bia’s 1.05 npxG/90 in the World Cup last summer was inflated by running riot over a poor Panama side, and seven goals in less than 900 minutes in the Brasileirão Feminino has no projectable translation to NWSL performance in public-facing data. Chawinga is joining the squad from Wuhan Jianghan in China; there is no advanced data or even good-quality public video from her performances there. What do her 63 goals in 2023 ultimately mean?
VANESSA DIBERNARDO: “I never answered his letter; I just couldn't tell him that way. No, I never answered his letter ’cause I didn't know what to say”
The soon-to-be-32-year-old no. 6 has been one of the best and most unheralded all-around defensive midfielders more or less since the moment she joined the Chicago Red Stars in 2014, and little would change with the Current. And so it was.
When she was on the field. DiBernardo missed the first two games of the season with injury, then suffered a concussion at the end of June and never returned. No explanation was given by the club for why she was out for so long.
What kind of shape will DiBernardo be in when opening weekend rolls around? The club no longer have Sam Mewis, Morgan Gautrat, or Alex Loera to deploy at no. 6 in DiBernardo’s absence. Desiree Scott will be back, and both Bayley Feist and Sophia Braun were signed from the Washington Spirit and Léon in Liga MX Femenil, respectively. Ashton and Andonovski have planned for depth behind DiBernardo. But Scott is 36 and hasn’t been on a competitive field for a year-and-a-half. Braun is untested in an environment like the NWSL, and didn’t look up for the challenge with Argentina during the W Gold Cup last month. For Andonovski’s vision to manifest, DiBernardo needs to be available and healthy for a 2,000-minute season.
DEBINHA: “Now I'm going down to the station. He'll be there at ten after two. I'll show him the ring on my finger; I don't know what else I can do”
“Debinha or Bust” may as well be chiseled in stone above the gate at CPKC Stadium, akin to “Know Thyself” over the Temple of Apollo at Delphi. Few winger/No. 10 hybrids can do what Debinha does. But she’s 32 years old now. 2023 was arguably her worst season in the NWSL, managing only 0.04 g+ above average/96 and 0.42 npxG+xA/96. It almost feels rude to describe such a season as a career low. Such is the height of the bar Debinha sets for herself. Will she return to her 2022 form? I’d take that bet. But given the thin attacking options ahead of her on the field, the Current’s offense will once again have to flow through her, and that’s asking a lot of a superstar rounding into the twilight of her career.
ADRIANNA FRANCH: “Baby, baby, please don't worry. Nothing in this world could tear us apart. We'll never, never part”
There is no explanation for what happened to Adrianna Franch in 2023. She just suddenly couldn’t command the goalmouth. No keeper experienced such a significant decline in her Shotstopping+a/96 numbers from 2022 to last year. Only Bella Bixby of the Portland Thorns saw a worse decline in overall g+a/96. Keeper stats are fluky from season to season, naturally. But Franch had the kind of track record over many years that would not indicate such an instant collapse.
The trade of Cassie Miller to Gotham strips some certainty from the depth chart. The Current used two of their three draft picks on goalkeepers, but neither are sure things. Halle Mackiewicz allowed less than a goal per game and tallied a 78% save percentage while at Clemson. Absent any public post-shot xG data—and how both Andonovski and goalkeeping coach Raki Kmetovksi have evaluated her at training—Mackiewicz could be the answer to phase Franch out of the No. 1 job, or she may be a rookie keeper who isn’t yet ready for week-to-week minutes.
THE XI: “The train from Kansas City is coming into town. The train from Kansas City, nothing I can do can make it turn around”
Provided everyone is healthy, I’d expect the opening day XI to look like this. You might swap out Rodriguez for Glas—and depending on Prince’s fitness, Alex Spaanstra may slot in on the left wing—but this should be Andonvoski’s preferred way to start the season. He’s got wingers who cut inside, fullbacks comfortable both pinching in to add numbers in midfield and who can overlap in attack, and No. 9 options who like living in the box. DiBernardo can playmake and methodically progress through the thirds, while Debinha can be the extra runner/provider in the box. Lo’eau LaBonta has the best goal celebrations in the business. (Co-owner Patrick Mahomes’s teammate Travis Kelce knows.) There is a semblance of a good team here.
The operative word there is “semblance.” Too many questions surround the turnover of the roster, and if anyone gets hurt, the bench throws even more variance into the mix. The Current could pip a playoff spot in an eight-team field. They could also finish bottom-3 like they did last year. Andonovski has a plan, and with the ability to work with the players every single week, that plan may translate into execution. But Andonovski had a plan in New Zealand and Australia, too. As the fella once said, everyone’s got a plan until somebody punches you in the mouth.