Lost in Transition

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Lost in Transition

Chris Armas is fighting a losing battle; in 2018, Jesse Marsch’s Red Bulls were one of the best teams in MLS. Their expected goal differential (xGD) was the fourth best since 2016, only behind Toronto (2016), Atlanta United (2018), and Los Angeles FC (2019). They were so good that many are sure that had Marsch stayed, they would have won the MLS Cup last year. Anything less than that was seen as a failure, which made a peaceful transition to a new era almost impossible in the critics’ eyes.

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Chris Armas’ transformation of the New York Red Bulls

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Chris Armas’ transformation of the New York Red Bulls

Coaching the New York Red Bulls must be a dream for most managers in North America's soccer circle, but Chris Armas also has had one of the toughest tasks in MLS. A mid-season takeover is never easy, let alone the takeover of a contender from the legendary Jesse Marsch. The Red Bulls organization may have boasted that they focus on the same pressing style starting from the academy, but everyone has their own unique ideas they want to implement. Armas is treading a fine line: he is introducing new elements while also keeping what was working for Marsch. The Red Bulls are still playing a similar style of soccer, so it appears Armas has been making quantitative, rather than qualitative, changes. Deciphering those changes will require some analytics techniques.

I first look at how New York has fared under the two managers using different variants of Expected Possession Goal (xPG). I recommend you read that full article, but in short it’s a score that measures the risks a team bears vs the rewards it creates. In short, Negative xPG measures the risks a team bears, while Mistake xPG measures the amount of turnovers a team commits from those risks.

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What Makes the Red Bulls' High Press Work?

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What Makes the Red Bulls' High Press Work?

Jesse Marsch’s New York Red Bulls play a style unlike any other team in Major League Soccer. They employ a frenzied, but organized high press that is a staple of Red Bull teams all over the soccer world. RBNY usually set up in a somewhat fluid 4-2-3-1. Bradley Wright-Phillips leads the line, often occupying the space between opposing center backs and shrinking the field. Right behind BWP sits Argentinian playmaker Kaku. Flanking Kaku is usually a combination of Florian Valot, Daniel Royer, and Derrick Etienne Jr.; these wingers are tasked with pressuring the ball in wide areas and occasionally dropping to help the pair of deeper midfielders. Who are those deeper mids? USMNT starlet Tyler Adams and fellow American Sean Davis are instructed to patrol the entire center of the field, acting as a pair of disrupters, intercepting passes, marking opposing playmakers, and shutting down attacks.

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New York Red Bulls 2018 Season Preview

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New York Red Bulls 2018 Season Preview

Whatever your opinions of the New York Red Bulls might be, you can’t accuse them of being boring. For the past three MLS seasons, the Red Bulls have consistently been one of the best attacking teams as measured by xG, ranking first in 2015, fifth in 2016, and third in 2017. But the real drama seems to happen off the field, and this winter was no different. Previously, after the 2016 season, Jesse Marsch pulled a power move over Ali Curtis, the man who controversially booted team legend Mike Petke to hire him, and traded team captain Dax McCarty to the Chicago Fire. Now he’s done it again, trading team captain and MLS assist master Sacha Kljestan to Orlando City. Throw in what was the most confirmed unconfirmed signing in memory, and you've got a recipe for some kind of 2018. Strap in, New York/New Jersey, it’s gonna be a wild one.

2017 IN REVIEW

In some ways, 2017 was slightly disappointing for Red Bulls fans compared to their 2016 success. After claiming first in the East in 2016 with 57 points, the Red Bulls landed in sixth in the East with 50 points without McCarty marshaling the midfield. In the beginning of the season, the trade seemed to cause problems and the Red Bulls lost six of their first 12 games. But the team got hot in the summer, notably winning every game they played in July, and despite going 0-3-5 between August 18 and September 30, they managed to hang onto a playoff berth. And while NYRB dropped some points during the regular season, they showed their true stripes in the postseason. First, they absolutely crushed McCarty’s Fire 4-0 in Chicago, and then they pushed the Greatest MLS Team Ever to the brink, falling to Toronto 2-2 on aggregate based on the away goals rule. While the season was ultimately successful, fans remember the shaky spring, and they will certainly expect more playoffs (and ultimately improvement) if they are to accept that trading Kljestan was the right thing to do.

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