ASA Podcast XLVI: The One Where We Talk World Cup 30-Man Roster

Hey, we're back... just like that we have two podcasts (not one, but two!) in less than seven days. This one is a special edition, as Jurgen Klinsmann announced his USMNT 30-man preliminary roster for the World Cup yesterday. In response, Matt Hartley and I decided to record a podcast. The result is brilliant, and you should listen. [soundcloud url="https://api.soundcloud.com/tracks/149278254" params="color=00cc11&auto_play=false&hide_related=false&show_artwork=true" width="100%" height="166" iframe="true" /]

MLS Head Coaches: Leveraging PWP Analysis on Performance

I promised this year, at various times, to offer some thoughts about how Possession with Purpose can be used to support analysis on how well Head Coaches might be performing compared to others. As a reminder from last year; five of the bottom six teams in my PWP Composite Index had coaching changes, Columbus, Chicago, San Jose, Toronto, Chivas USA, and then after an early exit from the Playoffs; Montreal.  Other teams making changes included Vancouver, Colorado and FC Dallas and the depature of Kreis for NYCFC. All told, a total of 10 teams made changes in Head Coaches for one reason or another.

Will this year have similar results, and if so, who?  I don't claim to prognosticate coaching changes and the firing of Head Coaches, but changes happen, and last year's information, relative to the bottom six teams in my Composite PWP Index, is pretty compelling at first glance.

So after reading an article offered up by Jason Davis at ESPNFC "Three MLS coaches on the hot seat," plus releasing my article earlier this week on Crosses offered in MLS, I figured the timing was pretty good for my first installment.

Here's some of my initial information for consideration on "system of attack":

1. For home games Frank Klopas, Mark Watson and Frank Yallop-led teams are the top three in MLS that offer up more crosses per pass attempted in the final third.
2. For away games Klopas, Watson, Yallop and Wilmer Cabrera-led teams are the top four teams in MLS that offer up more crosses per pass attempted in the final third.
3. The relationship of taking points, at home, in the MLS is (-.70) for teams that cross the ball more frequently than others. In other words, the teams who cross the ball the most are more likely to lose points (at home) than teams that don't.
4. The same relationship of taking points in away games holds as well (less at -.37). but still the same logic - the more crosses a team offers in away games the more likely they are to drop points.
5. Bottom line is these four teams are less likely to win at home or on the road given their current system of attack in the Final Third.

In other words, these teams led by these head coaches use a system of attack that simply doesn't get positive results on a regular basis in MLS; or... these teams, led by these head coaches and general managers don't have the right players to execute that system of attack in MLS.

So how does Sporting KC do it? They are a team that offers up the 7th-most crosses at home and the 5th most crosses on the road, yet they are winning using that system of attack.

Why? I think it's because their GM and head coach, collectively, are getting the right players to play to that system of attack.

So how about overall Team Attacking and Defending performance  (Team Positions in my Composite PWP Index) after nine weeks in: (1) Possession, (2) Passing Accuracy, (3) Penetration into the Final Third, (4) Creating and Taking Shots, (5) Putting Shots on Goal, and (6) Scoring Goals?

After Week nine, four of the five worst performing teams in MLS, in these categories are:

• Chivas USA (19th out of 19),
• Montreal Impact (18th out of 19),
• Chicago Fire (17th out of 19), and
• San Jose Earthquakes (15th out of 19).

In case you missed it in an earlier article on Expected Wins - the correlation of those data points as a whole is .99 (R-squared); the closer to "1" the better and stronger the relationship.

In other words that means that the relationship of those data points is pretty much rock solid, and that it's a worthy indicator (outside of points in the league table) for objectively evaluating team (attacking and defending) performance.

So while Jason Davis indicates John Hackworth and Caleb Porter as being potential candidates for hot seat discussions, actual evidence available indicates those names don't belong there. Indeed, there are other teams performing, as a whole, much worse than Philadelphia or Portland.

Three teams performing worse at this time include Chivas USA, Houston and Toronto, while Vancouver is behind the power curve compared to Philadelphia and slightly ahead of Portland.  By the way, this is not to say John Hackworth might not belong in a list a bit later this year - but for now I think it is highly speculative to even put in print that he's a potential hot seat candidate.

And with respect to Caleb Porter - it does seem, at times, that writers outside of the Portland area speculate and use the Timbers large supporter base to artificially increase readership in some of their articles... just saying. As a writer covering the Timbers here in Portland, reading the idea that Caleb Porter is on some sort of hot seat is (softly voiced) bollocks. But that's just me...

In closing:

Given the evidence offered, does it seem reasonable that those four Head Coaches and their associated GM's are worthy of a "Hot Seat" distinction? I think so...

Winning styles come in all shapes and sizes - the critical piece is having the right players to support that effort, and the time to install the system. Klopas, Cabrera, Yallop and Watson all know more about football than I do.

And it's not my place, nor is it the place of any soccer writer (in my opinion) to pass judgment on whether or not someone should get fired or hired.

But... objective evidence indicates that those four teams, compared to others, lack an effective attacking system of play, lack strong overall team performance in attacking and defending while also lacking the most important measuring stick - points in the league table.

I'm sure this is not new, nor rocket science, to those head coaches, general managers, or owners... but... (perhaps?) it is helpful to others.

Best, Chris

You can find Chris on twitter @ChrisGluckPWP

ASA Podcast: Episode XLV

Well, after a bit of a hiatus the podcast is back. I sit down with Jacob, aka @MLSAthiest, and we have a conversation about an assortment of (mostly) MLS-related topics. A slight note on the podcast itself, I tweaked the format and presentation ever so slightly, and I would love a bit of feed back on it--good or bad. I hope you enjoy it! [soundcloud url="https://api.soundcloud.com/tracks/148465574" params="color=00aabb&auto_play=false&hide_related=false&show_artwork=true" width="100%" height="166" iframe="true" /]

Calculating Expected Goals 2.0

I wrote a post similar to this a while back, outlining the process for calculating our first version of Expected Goals. This is going to be harder. Get out your TI-89 calculators, please. (Or you can just used my Expected Goals Cheatsheet). Expected Goals is founded on the idea that each shot had a certain probability of going in based on some important details about that shot. If we add up all the probabilities of a team's shots, that gives us its Expected Goals. Our goal is that this metric conveys the quality of opportunities a team earns for itself. For shooters and goal keepers, the details about the shot change a little bit, so pay attention.

The formulas are all based on a logistic regression, which allows us to sort out the influence of each shot's many details all at once. The formula changes slightly each week because we base the regression on all the data we have, including each week's new data, but it won't change by much.

Expected Goals for a Team

• Start with -0.19
• Subtract 0.95 if the shot was headed (0.0 if it was kicked or othered).
• Subtract 0.74 if the shot was taken from a corner kick (by Opta definition)
• Subtract one of the following amounts for the shot's location:

Zone 1 - 0.0 Zone 2 - 0.93 Zone 3 - 2.37 Zone 4 - 2.68 Zone 5 - 3.55 Zone 6 - 3.06

Now you have what are called log odds of that shot going in. To find the odds of that shot going in, put the log odds in an exponent over the number "e". 

Finally, to find the estimated probability of that shot going in, take the odds and divide by 1 + odds.

Example: Shot from zone 3, header, taken off a corner kick:

-0.19 - 0.95 - 0.74 - 2.37 = -4.25

e^(-4.25) = .0143

.0143 / (1 + .0143) = 0.014 or a 1.4% chance of going in.

A team that took one of these shots would earn 0.014 expected goals.

Expected Goals for Shooter

• Start with -0.28
• Subtract 0.83 if the shot was headed (0.0 if it was kicked or othered).
• Subtract 0.65 if the shot was taken from a corner kick (by Opta definition).
• Add 2.54 if the shot was as a penalty kick.
• Add 0.71 if the shot was taken on a fastbreak (by Opta definition).
• Add 0.16 if the shot was taken from a set piece (by Opta definition).
• Subtract one of the following amounts for the shot's location:

1. 0.0
2. 1.06
3. 2.32
4. 2.61
5. 3.48
6. 2.99

Now you have what are called log odds of that shot going in. To find the odds of that shot going in, put the log odds in an exponent over the number "e". 

Finally, to find the estimated probability of that shot going in, take the odds and divide by 1 + odds. 

Example: A penalty kick

-0.28 + 2.54 - 1.06 = 1.2

e^(1.2) = 3.320

3.320/ (1 + 3.320) = 0.769 or a 76.9% chance of going in.

A player that took a penalty would gain an additional 0.769 Expected Goals. If he missed, then he be underperforming his Expected Goals by 0.769.

Expected Goals for Goalkeeper

*These are calculated only from shots on target.

• Start with 1.61
• Subtract 0.72 if the shot was headed (0.0 if it was kicked or othered).
• Add 1.58 if the shot was as a penalty kick.
• Add 0.42 if the shot was taken from a set piece (by Opta definition).
• Subtract one of the following amounts for the shot's location:

1. One) 0.0
2. Two) 1.10
3. Three) 2.57
4. Four) 2.58
5. Five) 3.33
6. Six) 3.21

• Subtract 1.37 if the shot was taken toward the middle third of the goal (horizontally).
• Subtract 0.29 if the shot was taken at the lower half of the goal (vertically).
• Add 0.35 if the was taken outside the width of the six-yard box and was directed toward the far post.

Now you have what are called log odds of that shot going in. To find the odds of that shot going in, put the log odds in an exponent over the number "e". 

Finally, to find the estimated probability of that shot going in, take the odds and divide by 1 + odds. 

Example: Shot from zone 2, kicked toward lower corner, from the run of play.

1.61 - 1.10 - 0.29 = 0.22 e^(0.22) = 1.246 1.246/ (1 + 1.246) = 0.555 or a 55.5% chance of going in. A keeper that took on one of these shots would gain an additional 0.555 Expected Goals against. If he saved it, then he would be outperforming his Expected Goals by 0.555.

Frequently Asked Questions

1. Why a regression  model? Why not just subset each shot in a pivot table by its type across all variables?

I think a lot of information--degrees of freedom we call it--would be lost if I were to partition each shot into a specific type by location, pattern of play, body part, and for keepers, placement. The regression gets more information about, say, headed shots in general, rather than "headed shots from zone 2 off corner kicks," of which there are far fewer data points.

2. Why don't you include info about penalty kicks in the team model?

Penalty kicks are not earned in a stable manner. Teams that get lots of PK's early in the season are no more likely to get additional PK's later in the season. Since we want this metric to be predictive at the team level, including penalty kicks would cloud that prediction for teams that have received an extreme number of PK's thus far.

3. The formula looks quite a bit different for shooters versus for keepers. How is that possible since one is just taking a shot on the other?

There are a few reasons for this. The first is that the regression model for keepers is based only on shots on target. It is meant only to assess their ability to produce quality saves. A different data set leads to different regression results. Also, we are now accounting for the shooter's placement. It is very possible that corner kicks are finished less often than shots from other patterns of play because they are harder to place. By including shot placement information in the keeper model, the information about whether the shot came off a corner is now no longer needed for assessing the keeper's ability.

4. Why don't you include placement for shooters, then?

We wish to assess a shooter's ability to create goals beyond what's expected. Part of that skill is placement. When a shooter has recorded more goals than his expected goals, it indicates a player that is outperforming his expectation. It could be because he places well, or that he is deceptive, or he is good at getting opportunities that are better than what the model thinks. In any case, we want the expected goals to reflect the opportunities earned, and thus the actual goals should help us to measure finishing ability to some extent.

How it Happened: Week Nine

Welcome to my few-days-old review of the weekend in MLS, where I recap three games that I watched in their entirety (well, usually) by picking a stat or Opta image that tells the story of the game for each team. This week I fell short of my usual three games, and I apologize to the legions of Red Bulls and FC Dallas fans who will no doubt be disappointed to read the following paragraph. FC Dallas 0 - 1 New York Red Bulls

Stat that told the story for both teams: 26 minutes for which I was able to watch this game

This game was hideous. Not necessarily soccer wise: Thierry Henry will be fun to watch when he's pushing a walker around on opposing half, and this was a very competitive match, from what I saw. But I couldn't even make it past 26 minutes of this game before I had to give up and turn it off. Between Je-Vaughn Watson's karate kick of Tim Cahill, the referee's less-than-stellar control of the game, and players, fans and coaches alike going insane showing their indignation at every whistle, it was absolutely painful.

Sporting Kansas City 2 - 0 Columbus Crew

Stat that told the story for SKC: the ability to switch the ball in one pass

First, an aside: re-capping the national TV game from NBCSN is next to impossible, but for a good reason. Kyle Martino on the broadcast team does such a fantastic job breaking down the tactics of the match, that it's incredibly difficult for me to pick out anything that hasn't been said yet. So I'm going to just roll with something he mentioned, and that Matthew Doyle also mentioned in his weekly column. One of the major differences between KC and Columbus is Matt Besler's ability to switch the field of play with one ball. It's an ability that led straight to the first goal (buildup pictured above according to Opta), and it's one that USMNT fans have to hope pays off in the World Cup. Columbus, for all their admirable qualities, don't really have a player with the quality to hit that ball. Federico Higuain can do it, and Wil Trapp will from time to time, but with SKC if it isn't Besler switching fields, it's Graham Zusi or Benny Feilhaber or Seth Sinovic. All in all, they're just a more complete team at the moment.

Stat that told the story for Columbus: Jairo Arrieta's actions

There's one other really big difference between the Crew and Sporting KC that spells out why Columbus doesn't measure up, at least not yet. Jairo Arrieta plays as a lone striker for Columbus. This probably isn't the greatest role for him, because he's at his best when combining with others. Sometimes this works well with him and Higuain, but sometimes (like Sunday), he ends up isolated and completely ineffective. Seriously, his action that was closest to the goal against SKC was still about 30 yards away from the endline. The Crew did have some solid moves, generally involving Josh Williams overlapping and sending in a dangerous cross, but the lack of a quality striker really did Columbus in.

Chivas USA 1 - 4 Houston Dynamo

Stat that told the story for Houston: interchanging midfield in the new formation

I'm gonna play a little trivia game here and see if you can guess which heat map belongs to which midfielder from Sunday's game for Houston. The telecast called Dom Kinnear's formation a 4-3-3, but it looked a whole lot like a 4-1-4-1 to me, taken straight out of Jay Heaps' playbook from last season. I really liked the move: the Dynamo have multiple midfielders who can tuck in or pose a threat out wide, and Giles Barnes and Will Bruin just haven't worked well together up top. So, might as well drop Barnes into the midfield. It was only Chivas, but the early returns were pretty tough to argue with: the midfield dominated every facet of the game from winning balls to creating chances. We'll see if the Dynamo stick to the formation, but I liked the innovation from Kinnear. By the way, the answer from top left to bottom right: Davis, Garcia, Driver, Barnes, Carrasco.

Stat that told the story for Chivas: first half midfield struggles: 16/19 recoveries/interceptions in their own half

I've written about Chivas a few times in recent weeks, focusing mostly on the midfield. Against the LA Galaxy, they got run over and never stood a chance. Against San Jose, they held their own and really made it a game (seeing the Quakes' struggles against Vancouver this weekend makes that seem like less of an accomplishment). Against the Dynamo on Sunday, it was back to getting run over. The five midfielders put together a total of 19 recoveries + interceptions in the first half, but 16 of them were in their own half and the other three were miles from the attacking goal. Basically, the Goats couldn't make up any ground and just got pushed around by the more talented Houston midfield. On the bright side: the second half started better, until another goalkeeper red card finished off any Chivas hopes at a comeback.

Dynamo Dynamic in Attack and Bulls Bullish on Defense - Week 9 Ends in MLS

Taking a team to L.A. and winning 4-1 sounds incredible until you offer up the caveat that it wasn't against the Galaxy. The doormat this year seems to be shining earlier than last. The Houston Dynamo have dominated in dynamic fashion; wow - good on you Giles Barnes...

So how exactly did that powerful attack look compared to other four-goal outbursts this year - was it really that special?

In all the four-goal games this year, here's a quick breakdown on which teams accomplished that and then who's been tops in their Possession with Purpose and Expected Wins statistics for those games:

1. DC United vs FC Dallas
2. Sporting KC vs Montreal Impact
3. Seattle Sounders vs Colorado Rapids
4. Seattle Sounders vs Portland Timbers
5. New York Red Bulls vs Houston Dynamo
6. Houston Dynamo vs Chivas USA
7. Houston Dynamo vs New England Revolution
8. Portland Timbers vs Seattle Sounders
9. Vancouver Whitecaps vs New York Red Bulls

Tops in overall possession in those high scoring affairs was DC United at 67.04%. Tops in passing accuracy across the entire pitch was, again, DC United at 84.17%.

Tops in penetration percentage based upon passes completed in the final third vs. across the entire pitch was Houston vs. New England at 28.94%.

Tops in percentage of successful passes within the final third was Vancouver at 74.55%. Tops in shots taken compared to passes completed in the final third was Houston vs. Chivas USA at 39.13%.

Tops in shots on goal compared to shots taken was Vancouver at 71.43%; and finally... tops in goals scored vs. shots on goal was FC Dallas at 100% versus Houston.

So while Houston did well this weekend, and got their second four-goal game, it wasn't dominating compared to others - sorry Houston. It was three points (which is the target) but it wasn't really that special when viewing who you played against... more later on just how weak Chivas are in Possession with Purpose.

However viewed, Houston still had the best attacking outcome this week. So here's my PWP Attacking Player of the Week... Giles Barnes.

Moving on to the Defensive side of the pitch - FC Dallas saw red this past weekend and it wasn't just their kit, the Red Bulls kit or Dax McCarty's hair - it was Watson (elementary my dear) who got red.  

Things don't get better for Dallas either - they travel to Seattle for a midweek clash this Wednesday and then must fly down to San Jose for another on Saturday... wow.   Might we see Dallas drop three in a row?  I'm not sure and if you want to know my MLS picks for this week check here.

Anyhow, I digress - the PWP Defending Player of Week 9 is Jamison Olave...

So was that a worthy three points for New York and should it have been expected?  I'm not sure and here's some information to consider:

Below is a list of games, this year, where the first team listed got a Red Card:

1. DC United v FC Dallas
2. Columbus Crew v DC United
3. Columbus Crew v Sporting KC
4. Sporting KC v Columbus Crew
5. Sporting KC v New England Revolution
6. Sporting KC v Real Salt Lake
7. FC Dallas v Chivas USA
8. FC Dallas v DC United
9. FC Dallas v New York Red Bulls
10. FC Dallas v Portland Timbers
11. New York Red Bulls v Philadelphia Union
12. Houston Dynamo v FC Dallas
13. Houston Dynamo v Philadelphia Union
14. Chivas USA v Houston Dynamo
15. Chivas USA v San Jose Earthquakes
16. Chivas USA v Seattle Sounders
17. Chivas USA v Vancouver Whitecaps
18. Portland Timbers v Colorado Rapids
19. Portland Timbers v FC Dallas
20. Vancouver Whitecaps v Colorado Rapids
21. Colorado Rapids v Portland Timbers
22. Colorado Rapids v Sporting KC
23. Montreal Impact v Philadelphia Union
24. Chicago Fire v New England Revolution
25. Chicago Fire v Portland Timbers
26. San Jose Earthquakes v Colorado Rapids
27. Seattle Sounders v Columbus Crew

Twenty seven in all and only Colorado, New York, FC Dallas twice, Sporting KC and DC United won games yielding just a 22% chance of winning when seeing Red.

FC Dallas and Chivas USA lead MLS having received Red Cards in four games.  But here's where the more later comes in for Chivas - check this out.

FC Dallas (when short handed) have an Attacking PWP Index = 2.3976.  Their Defending PWP Index = 2.3914 and their Composite PWP Index = .1472.

By contrast, the Goats PWP Indices (at full strength this year) for Attacking = 2.1685; for Defending = 2.5446 and for Composite PWP = -.3760.  If I were a Chivas USA supporter that is a pretty depressing statistical output - FC Dallas, short-handed, are more productive in Attack and more effective in Defense than a full-strength Chivas... wow!

In circling back to my question on whether or not it should have been expected that New York would win?   Perhaps now, seeing how effective FC Dallas is, even when short-handed, it wasn't quite the cake-walk one would expect.  Key for Dallas these next 7 days will be the health of Diaz and the discipline to minimize Red Cards...

In closing...

After nine full weeks of MLS here's how things stand with my Composite PWP Index along with a few quick thoughts plus the Top 3 in Attacking and Top 3 in Defending.

LA Galaxy remain atop the table even with their 1-nil loss in Colorado - if Robbie Keane hits that PK, LA doesn't drop one point.  As for Columbus they drop down to 3rd with Sporting KC pushing up to spot #2.

Seattle, FC Dallas, Colorado and Columbus still stay in the top 6 while RSL continues to move forward - inching one space higher into 7th with New York and New England swapping places.

Note DC United dropped a few places and the bandwidth between the Revolution, United, Union, Whitecaps, and Portland got a bit tighter while Houston pushed forward past both Montreal and Chicago after thrashing Chivas.

Settling into last is Chivas, by a large margin, while the Fire and Impact hover on the low end as well...

Did a change in Managers (Head Coaches) really make a difference when looking at the End State? I'm not sure; for now it doesn't appear that either Klopas or Yallop have really changed things up when viewing the bottom line...

The top three teams in overall Attacking PWP (after 9 full weeks) are FC Dallas, Seattle Sounders, and Columbus Crew - can their approaches in possession continue to keep them there?

The top three teams in overall Defending PWP are Sporting KC, LA Galaxy and New England Revolution - some might offer elsewhere that it is surprising to see the Revolution somewhat higher in the table compared to others; is that surprising?

I don't think so... they have shown pedigree in defending for over a year now and with an improved attack it only stands to reason that their overall position finds them where they are...

Finally, have you made adjustments in your Fantasy teams yet?

If not and you are looking for a consistent (team back-four) you may want to add the Revolution to your list while spending a bit of change in leveraging Lloyd Sam from New York (cheap and cheerful) or latching on to Jaoa Plata if you haven't already...

Best, Chris

PWP-Pick-List Week 10 - weaving Expected Wins into my predictions this week...

A different approach this week just to see how things go.  Instead of leveraging my PWP Indices this week I'm going to leverage my Expected Wins analysis this week. Last week I was 5/9 so my running total on my PWP-Pick-List is 51%.

As background - most teams have had roughly an equal amount of home and away games - the Expected Wins #'s are the R2 values relative to playing either at home or on the road.  It's not 100% enough games but it'll do as a test of sorts...

The higher the number the more effective the team has been in overall Possession, Passing Accuracy, Penetration, Shots Taken, Shots on Goals and Goals Scored... the R2 below does not take into account the points earned (i.e. - those numbers do not reflect points won or lost in the league table)...

So in quick fashion (offering up only wins or losses - no draws) here's my picks for games beginning Wednesday and ending on Sunday:

Canadian Cup Vancouver visits Toronto:  Expected wins Toronto .9979 at home and Vancouver .9997 on the road.  Have most MLS teams twigged onto the 'mistake driven' attack by Toronto where possession really has no meaning?  I think so...  Nelson has, as I've intuited earlier this year, imported a European style of football to MLS. Chelsea has seen some success but has failed to take the EPL Championship.  Is this system good enough to get Toronto in to the Playoffs? I'm not sure  - for now I pick Vancouver winning. 

Houston at home to Columbus: Expected wins Houston .9993 at home and Columbus .9996 on the road - Columbus would normally be favored but with Will Trapp sitting on a Red Card I pick Houston winning.  Besides - it is still early days for Berhalter's system and Kinnear knows it well enough having just played Portland while also playing against Sporting the last few years...  I think the width of Houston is better...

Canadian Cup - Edmonton at home to Montreal:  Expected wins for Edmonton (no idea) and Montreal .9993 - Montreal wins given their budget and higher quality players... if they don't win - wow - they really aren't any good...

Seattle at home to FC Dallas:  Expected wins Seattle .9992 at home and FC Dallas .9990 on the road - Seattle wins; especially with Watson on a Red Card.

San Jose at home to Colorado:  Expected wins San Jose .9989 at home and Colorado .9996 on the road.  Colorado has done extremely well on the road this year averaging 1.25 goals per game - they have speed and the back-four for San Jose doesn't... why on earth Goodson continues to be a potential selection candidate for the World Cup I don't know...  maybe he proves me wrong this game.  For the USMNT sake I hope so...  for now Colorado wins...

Philadelphia at home to DC United:  Expected wins Philadelphia .9996 at home and DC United .9985 on the road; A rough patch for the Union of late and Hackworth is probably pretty hacked off by now - for no other reason than the Expected wins favors the Union I think Philadelphia wins...

Montreal at home to Sporting KC:  Expected wins Montreal .9979 at home and Sporting KC .9998 on the road - Montreal took advantage of a disjointed Union two weeks ago and they may consider have to play some stronger players to ensure a good result against Edmonton.  That and Sporting probably being very upset about dropping three points in New England sees Sporting KC  winning... besides, with Zusi and Besler being away with the USMNT later this year these early games really are pretty important for them.

New York Red Bulls at home to Chicago Fire:  Expected wins New York .9999 at home and Chicago .9996 on the road -The Red Bulls are almost at full strength - Cahill got minutes in their Red Card tainted win in Dallas and it's not likely they will be shut out against a Fire defense that's really watered down again this year - New York Red Bulls win...

Columbus at home to Vancouver:  Expected wins Columbus .9996 at home and Vancouver .9997 on the road - I'm convinced Columbus can play possession based football but can they do it consistently and can they take on a Vancouver team that is pretty powerful in attack?  I'm not sure they do that this next weekend.  So this might be an upset by many but I pick Vancouver to win...

San Jose at home to FC Dallas:  Expected wins San Jose  .9989 (subject to change given another home game earlier in the week) and FC Dallas (also with another away game earlier in the week) .9990 - I suppose San Jose has to put together a run of wins sooner or later - my guess is that it doesn't happen here - the attack, if Diaz is healthy is just too strong and the back-four, as noted before, is simply too slow - even with Watson having to sit with a Red Card against New York...  (edit - Watson sits against Seattle) FC Dallas wins...  that doesn't mean San Jose can't score in this game - Dallas remain weak at the back and that might be the telling downfall for Dallas again this year when push comes to shove...

Portland at home to LA Galaxy:  Expected wins Portland .9953 at home and LA .9999 on the road; LA has higher Expected Wins but Portland are improving and LA just lost on the road to Colorado - tough game here and if I had to pick a draw this week it would be here.  For now, unfortunately my Expected Wins indicates LA with a win but I will go with Portland to win.

Colorado at home to Chivas USA:  Expected wins Colorado .9983 at home and Chivas .9997 on the road.  Another one going against the grain based upon Expected wins - I just don't see Chivas winning this game no matter how well their attacking data points relate to each other...  besides speed kills and Colorado has speed up top with Brown... Colorado wins

New England at home to Seattle:  Expected wins New England .9990 at home and Seattle .9997 on the road.  A true test for New England in matching their solid defense against one of the most potent attacks in MLS - an early statement game, in my opinion for the Revolution.  They took it to Sporting KC against the odds at home not too long ago and this one will be a test as well.  For now I have more confidence in the attack of Seattle creating and scoring more goals than the defense giving away more goals to New England... Seattle wins...

Houston at home to Real Salt Lake:  Expected wins Houston .9993 at home and Real Salt Lake .9997 on the road.  Jaoa Plata has shown his value this season and his pairing with Saborio is simply dangerous - that coupled with the strong Diamond midfield makes RSL very hard to beat anywhere.  And with Houston having a game earlier this week I see RSL taking three points...

Best, Chris

How It Happened: Week Eight

The scorelines of the three games I caught this weekend had a very "binary solo" feel to them: 1-0, 1-1, 1-0. There were impressive performances from young wingers, outstanding goalkeeping, and irresponsible defending - and that was just in these three games. Here's how it happened for six teams last weekend. Columbus Crew 1 - 1 New York Red Bulls

Stat that told the story for New York: 5 terrific chances in the first 10 minutes

This was certainly the premier game I tuned into this weekend: two teams fighting to stay near the top of the Eastern Conference and who play entertaining soccer. Both teams played pretty well, too, for the most part - a notable exception was the first ten minutes when Red Bulls were terrific and Columbus was sleepwalking. NYRB would look back on these first ten minutes with great angst, as great saves by Steve Clark and near misses by Eric Alexander and Thierry Henry made them all go for naught. New York would eventually get their goal through the red-hot Bradley Wright-Phillips, but also gave up their share of great chances that required big saves from Luis Robles. All in all, this was probably a game where both teams left fairly content with the result and how they played.

Stat that told the story for Columbus: 7 first time crosses from wide players

I went over the game from both team's perspective above, so I'm going to use this space to talk a little general soccer strategy. Each and every game I ever watch, a wide player will receive a ball in the attacking third with forwards and attacking midfielders streaking into the box. And probably 80% of the time, the winger slows down and takes a touch to steady himself before crossing it, thereby forcing his teammates crashing the box to stop or delay their runs, and allowing the defense a chance to get set and defend the cross. Every time this happens, I get inexplicably angry. Crossing the ball with the first touch is admittedly more difficult and not always the right play, but it overjoys me to see Crew wingers (especially Hector Jimenez and Josh Williams) send in these first time crosses. Of the 23 the team recorded against New York, I counted 7 that were on the wide player's first touch. Oh, and the one that led to the team's lone goal? First time.

Montreal Impact 1 - 0 Philadelphia Union

Stat that told the story for Philadelphia: 15 giveaways in their own half by Union defenders

I used this stat for one of the games last week, and it's a bit of a tough one to quantify. I included the above image to show how I figure: 15 of the unsuccessful passes by Philly defenders ended in their defensive half (one of which led directly to the game's lone goal). For a team who have as impressive moments as the Union have early in the year, this kind of sloppiness out of the back really hurts. I don't want to heap all the criticism on Amobi Okugo, Sheanon Williams and the other defenders, because the truth is part of the problem stems from the midfield. As good as Maurice Edu and Vincent Noguiera look at times, there's often a conspicuous lack of anyone getting open in the middle of the field for the back line to pass to. The point is this: Philadelphia has certainly looked like a playoff team at times and probably deserves to have more points than they do, but at the same time are usually their own undoing.

Stat that told the story for Montreal: only 41 passes in attacking half by defense/midfield; 51 by four attackers

When watching the Impact this weekend, I was struck by the fact that four attackers in their formation were actually pretty creative and fun to watch. Jack McInerney, Marco Di Vaio, Felipe and Justin Mapp do a lot of good work interchanging and creating chances (especially on the counter). But their defense is fairly fragile, and because of that they play two central midfielders who concentrate on defending first and foremost. This leads to Montreal never really pushing up the field and keeping possession in the attacking half, which ends up putting a lot of pressure on them to defend for heavy minutes. This is one of many reasons that Montreal are near the bottom of the standings; on the other hand, those four attackers can be good enough to win some points on their own at times.

San Jose Earthquakes 1 - 0 Chivas USA

Stat that told the story for Chivas: 7/17 crosses completed by Leandro Barrera

Chivas had to be disappointed to lose this game. They outplayed the Earthquakes, particularly in the first half. They had more possession and more chances than San Jose on the whole, but they were really lacking in quality for the final ball/shot. A prime culprit on this was also one of their best players on the day, young electric winger Leandro Barrera. He mostly plays with the same strategy as guys like Fabian Castillo or Teal Bunbury; that is, run really fast past the defender and try to cross or shoot. Unfortunately, the end of that sequence is a struggle for Barrera: you can see from the image above that his crosses were as likely to fly well over the goal as they were to find a teammate in the box. If he can improve his service, Chivas should see an uptick in their goal scoring.

Stat that told the story for San Jose: 12 midfield recoveries + interceptions in the first half; 17 in the second

San Jose wasn't overly impressive in earning their first win of the year, but the second half was markedly better than the first. Admittedly, some of this was due to Chivas playing the last portion of the game down a man, but I think the largest reason for the second half improvement was the introduction of Yannick Djalo to the game. Bringing in a true wide threat stretched Chivas' midfield quite a bit, which was stocked with 3 center mids and two wide players who were wont to tuck inside. This led to the Goats controlling the midfield and winning a lot of balls in the first half, but they were spread thin and had a harder time in the second stanza. To wit: Chivas had 20 recoveries/interceptions to San Jose's 12 in the first half, but were out-dueled 17-14 by that measure in the second. Once Djalo is healthy, he needs to be on the field all game: it's clear that his presence brings a threat not only on the ball, but it also helps the team in other ways.

Agree with my ideas on these games? Think I'm an idiot? I love to hear feedback. @MLSAtheist

Week 9 PWP-Pick-List - My stunner this week? Columbus taking 3 at Sporting?!?

My thoughts on the Sporting v Columbus match a bit further down; for now let's get started working from left to right based upon kick-off times: Toronto entertains New England:  Toronto has been the odd one out in PWP this year and they've had injuries to go with - it doesn't appear that is the case this week.  Both teams are at full strength.  So how might this game go?  Will the Revolution 'turtle-up' in defense like they have in some other away games?  Toronto has been a side that is willing to yield large amounts of possession...  Normally the run of play drives the intent where one team will want to play  'keep-away' (sustain and maintain possession to increase better chances).  I'm not sure about this game though.  Without trying to be to cynical might this game be a game of 'hot-potato'; you take it - no you take it???    .... Probably not, but there's a fair chance that large chunks of this game will be start-stop with plenty of second chance balls and seeing-eye switches/through-balls/counterattacks against the run of play driving opportunities.  Or.... Nelson pulls a surprise with a possession based attack?   I don't know...  However that balances out I see Toronto taking three points - perhaps 2-1 as a final score?

Vancouver how to San Jose:  Have the earthquakes put themselves together now after that win versus Chivas - perhaps?  But enough to beat an aggressive Vancouver squad at BC Place - not likely.  Vancouver wins this - in my view what remains is how many goals they score against a slower San Jose defense.  If history has any say it'll be at least 2-1 Vancouver - my opine is the Whitecaps could score as many as three as the woes for San Jose continue.

Real Salt Lake travel to Chicago:  For some reason RSL struggles a wee bit in Chicago - in the last 5 matches RSL have never scored more than a goal but... this year may be different.  Chicago still don't have a strong defense and Jaoa Plata is back from injury for Real.  I see this game as being one of a few games where an away team will win this week.  Real Salt Lake are beginning to gel a bit better and as much as I like Chicago it's hard to see them taking three points against Real; RSL wins...

Colorado home to LA Galaxy:  This is a big test for the Rapids - especially after getting smacked down so badly in Seattle.  No major injuries or suspensions for either team and it's likely the team who has the edge in possession is the team who takes this one unless early goals signal a blowout.  The Galaxy are (if you can believe this) even more formidable in attack than Seattle and like the RSL v Chicago game I see this one being won by the away team - LA Galaxy wins - against the odds most likely.

Philadelphia travel to Seattle:  The Union are on a bad run of late - win-less in six while Seattle are simply pumping with energy since that come from behind 4-4 draw with Portland.   Can anyone stop the Sounders as they continue to pound their opponents of late?  With them in the friendly confines of Century Link Field and no major injuries (I'm aware of) to their top 12 or so it just doesn't seem likely the Union can come together to win this one.  Perhaps another multiple goal game for Seattle - but with a back-four that can be slow at times I don't think they get a clean sheet --- we'll see - Seattle wins.

Portland at home to DC United:  If you looked at this game before the season started you mighta thought this one a no-brainer; not so fast now though.  DC United are taking shape as a strong attacking team that is no slouch in defense.  My view here is this one is a battle of possession with the critical time being spent defending United crosses into the box on one side and finding the right striker to score on the attacking side.  Total possession percentage might not mean that much with two teams like this - what will matter most is the quality versus quantity issue in the Final Third.  The Timbers are beginning to show last year's habits and DC United are no where near the doormat this year.  I see this as a tight one but, really, can the Timbers afford to drop points at home again?  Even a draw here would be a big disappointment.  Timbers take three.

Chivas USA at home to Houston:  Two teams looking to change direction - Chivas can score and Torres has shown that.  The confidence of the Dynamo has to be shaky after getting hammered by New York and then turning around and dropping 2 points with that draw versus Portland.  All told neither team has a win in their last six games and a 'draw' is begging to be called here but I won't.   At the end of the day the team who attacks better, as whole, usually wins.  And so far this year Chivas have attacked better, as a team, than Houston.  Chivas Win...

FC Dallas at home to New York:  If there was ever a time to play Dallas it's now - they took a heavy and costly loss in DC United and New York are riding a wave that should remind many of how well they performed last year in winning the Supporter's Shield.  New York wins... especially with Diaz unlikely to start and Michel, as well as Loyd, on a red card suspension -- I just don't see the home team winning this game.

Sporting KC at home to Columbus:  Of all this games this weekend this is the biggest one I'd like to watch and THANKFULLY this one is on NBC Sunday afternoon 4:00 PM Eastern!  Columbus have been one of the stronger teams to start this year and even with 3 draws on the trot they remain at the top with Sporting one point behind.   The challenge for Sporting this game is who starts at center-back; if I recall Opara is still injured and Collin is on a red card suspension.  And with Columbus being one of the top attacking teams in MLS this year I'm seeing the Berhalter bunch take three points - though if putting money on this game a draw is more likely.

In closing...

In case you missed it I did some research on team defensive activities this past week and after 71 games teams who average more Clearances, Interceptions and Blocked Crosses generate more Unsuccessful Passes against their Opponent's and are more likely to win... so if you get a chance today watch the wings and hopefully your team will do a better job in those key performance areas.

So far I'm at 44% and staying there will be a challenge given I'm not offering up draws anymore - a team might consider a draw a great result but no-one goes into a game with a plan that expects to get a draw as an outcome.  Only the game state as the game is played might drive decisions that push for one point instead of three...

Best, Chris

"Hurried Passes" - Could this be a new Statistic in Soccer?

Aye... the NFL track 'hurried throws' -  why doesn't a Statistics agency involved in Soccer track "Hurried Passes"? I'll get to that but first I need to set some conditions.

If you've read my article on Expected Wins  (XpW) it seems reasonable that a teams' Passing Accuracy in the Final Third has great value in working towards generating quality shots taken that are more likely to be on goal and (therefore) more likely to go in.

So what activities does the defense take to mitigate successful passes (i.e. generate Unsuccessful Passes)?

Before digging in, I'm not the only one on American Soccer Analysis looking into Defensive Statistics; Jared Young has put together an interesting article on Individual Defensive Statistics that may be of interest.

Similarities in our work come from collecting 'like' defensive activities; Tackles Won, Clearances, Interceptions, etc...

Additional twists in my efforts will be to fold my Opponent team attacking statistics in with my team Defense Activities to see what correlations might be present.

My data comes from the first 71 games in MLS this year (142 events) and my source is the MLS Chalkboard.

Bottom line up front (BLUF) - however this data plays out it needs to make sense so here's my operating conditions on Team Defensive Activities in the Defending Final Third and which ones I will focus on that can be associated with an Unsuccessful Pass in the Final Third:

1. Recoveries - usually associated with 'loose balls' generated from some other activity like a deflection, rebound, or perhaps an unsuccessful throw-in that hits a head and deflects away (uncontrolled) that another player latches on to and then makes a move showing control the ball.  Therefore Recoveries are not counted as a specific defensive activity that would impede a successful pass - it is the resultant of another activity that impedes a successful pass.
2. Clearances - one of the better examples of a defensive activity that impedes a successful pass - especially those generated from crosses but not necessarily called a blocked cross.  Therefore Clearances will be counted as a specific defensive activity that impedes a successful pass.
3. Interceptions - pretty much self explanatory - an interception impedes a successful pass - therefore Interceptions will be counted as a specific defensive activity that impedes a successful pass.
4. Tackles Won - this is a defensive activity that strips the ball from an opponent - so it is a possession lost but not a defensive activity that impedes a successful pass.  It won't be counted as a defensive activity that impedes a successful pass.
5. Defender Blocks - this is a defensive activity that blocks a shot taken not a successful pass; therefore it won't be counted as a defensive activity that impedes a successful pass.
6. Blocked Crosess - clearly it is what it is; and since a cross is a pass it will be counted as a defensive activity that impedes a successful pass.

To summarize - Blocked Crosses, Interceptions and Clearances will be counted as defensive activities that should impact the volume of Unsuccessful Passes.

So what are the correlations between those combined Defensive Activities versus Unsuccessful Passes after 142 events?

Final Third Defensive Activities to Unsuccessful Passes = .6864

Final Third Defensive Activities to Unsuccessful Passes when the Defending Activities' Team Wins = .7833

Final Third Defensive Activities to Unsuccessful Passes when the Defending Activities' Team Draws = .6005

Final Third Defensive Activities to Unsuccessful Passes when the Defending Activities' Team Loses = .6378

In conclusion:

It seems pretty clear that Teams who win have more Defensive Activities, that in turn increase their Opponents' Unsuccessful Passes given the higher positive correlation than losing teams - in other words a team that wins generally executes more clearances, interceptions and blocked crosses to decrease the number of Successful Passes their Opponents make.

It also seems pretty clear that all those Defensive Activities don't account for the total of Unsuccessful Passes generated by the Opponent.  If they did then the correlation would be higher than .7833; it'd be near .9898 or so.

So what is missing from the generic soccer statistical community to account for the void in Unsuccessful Passes?

Is it another statistic like Tackles Won, Duals Won, Blocked Shots or Recoveries?

I don't think so - none of them generated a marked increase in the overall correlation of those three Activities already identified.

I think it is the physical and spatial pressure applied by the defenders as they work man to man and zone defending efforts.

In Closing...

To date I'm not aware of any statistics that log 'pressure applied' to the attacking team.  A good way to count that would be tracking how many seconds the defending team gives an opponent when they recieve the ball and take action.

My expectation is that the less time, given the opponent, the more likely they will hurry a pass that simply goes awry without any other statistic event to account for that other than - bad pass due to being hurried.

So in other words; like the NFL tracks hurried passes, I think that the Soccer statistical community should also track "hurried passes"...

I'm not sure that completely closes the gap between those three Defensive Activities and Unsuccessful Passes but it does seem to be a relevant statistic that can attempt to quantify panic in an attacker while also quantifying good physical and spatial pressure by a defender.  Two relevant items of interest to a coach in weighing the balance on who plays and who doesn't and who they might like to add to their team or perhaps put on loan/trade elsewhere.

The Official statistic that would get tracked for attacking players is 'Hurried Passes' and the statistic that would get tracked for defensive players is 'Passes Hurried'.

In addition - an increase in hurried passes can become a training topic that drives a Head Coach to develop tailor made passing or turning drills to minimize Hurried Passes (make space) while also providing a Head Coach statistical information to generate tailor made defensive drills that look to increase Passes Hurried.  I'd expect the level of the training drills to vary given the level of skill/professional development as well.

So how might someone define a "Hurried Pass"?  I'm not sure; there are plenty of smarter people out there in the soccer community than me - if I had to offer up a few suggestions it might be a pass that goes out of bounds given defensive pressure, or maybe a through-ball that goes amiss given pressure from a defender - in other words the timing of the delivery looked bad and given defensive pressure it was off-target.

However defined if judgment can be applied when identifying a pass as a key pass then it stands to reason that judgment can be applied to identify a bad pass as being bad because the defender hurried the attacker.

More to follow...

Best, Chris