Darlington Nagbe And The Very Good Season

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A couple of weeks ago, while listening to Major League Soccer Soccer dot com's very own podcast, Extra Time Radio, Alexi Lalas provided some insight to the emergence Darlington Nagbe. The newly-minted US International and always-minted Portland starlet's blossoming can simply be chalked up to "more touches." It's not that I disagree with that synopsis, but I feel that is too simplistic.

Nagbe has been excellent for years. We've seen him time after time change matches with moments that are breathtaking. His biggest problem has always been consistency, going multiple matches without directly being the influence that should be expected from his talent. Of course, "consistency" is just sports fans' code word for "he's not good enough often enough."

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MLS Cup 2015: Where the goals come from

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The purpose of this post is to investigate the origin of regular season goals conceded and scored for both teams. I have aggregated the Portland Timbers and Columbus Crew’s goal locations in order to shed some light on their defensive and offensive strengths. 

The Portland Timbers are one of the best defensive teams in the league with 39 goals conceded and five goals conceded in the playoffs. Conversely, the Columbus Crew are one of the best offensive teams in the league with fearsome firepower in the likes of Kei Kamara. They conceded 52 regular season goals and three more in the playoffs. 

When looking at the ratio of goals scored to goals conceded, Columbus Crew’s attacking strengths compensated for their propensity for leaking goals with a 1.096 ratio. The Portland Timbers finished with a regular season ratio of 1.051. 

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Model Projections: Crew Favored to Win MLS Cup 2015

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As you probably know, after each playoff game we've been projecting the remainder of the MLS Playoffs 50,000 times using our expected goals model. Yesterday we did it for the last time in 2015. The odds for both Portland and Columbus are listed to the right.

There are plenty of limitations to our model - it doesn't account for injuries, it doesn't care about formations (Nagbe in the single pivot, anyone?), and we still can't predict weather patterns - but on the whole it has been pretty accurate.

Given those limitations, to some 65% odds for Columbus may seem high, and they are certainly pretty favorable odds in a game pundits are calling a fairly even matchup. Consider that the Crew had the 4th highest expected goals against (xGA) this season,  which was worse than Chicago, Orlando, and Philadelphia, and you may be even more confused.

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2015 Final PScore: What happens when both teams high press?

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The end of season numbers have been tabulated and there are some final observations about how MLS teams played tactically this season. In case you’re new to PScore, the goal is to describe numerically how a team plays tactically. There are two numbers that make up the score; one that assess how directly or indirectly a team passes the ball and another that measures where a team sets up their defensive line of pressure. Looking at the team offensively and defensively we can observe their tactical tendencies and ultimately determine which style of play is most effective for each team.

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Conference Final Home Teams Have A First-leg Up

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As you probably know, we've been projecting the MLS playoffs after each round of games. Using a bivariate Poisson model, we simulate goal scoring based off our expected goals model. Given that goals are an essential ingredient for emulating soccer's two-legged system, this has proven quite important, and the conference finals are no different.  

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MLS Semifinals Tactical Preview

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There are a multitude of tactical questions facing each remaining team in the MLS Cup Playoffs. Can New York's retooled wing-backs be relied on to defend capably? Can the Crew maintain a consistent attack with Federico Higuain's inconsistent performances? Can anything be done to stop Dallas' attack through Mauro Diaz and Fabian Castillo? And how will suspensions affect Portland's midfield? I'll examine each of these questions and provide a tactical preview of of the Conference Finals below.

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USMNT World Cup Qualifying Review: Klinsmann Stays Afloat

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World Cup qualifying review: USMNT rebounds in opening weekend
The USMNT opened World Cup qualification for Russia with two solid, if unspectacular performances. They started with their easiest match of this round with a 6-1 home win over St. Vincent and the Grenadines. The second match was the most challenging, a road game against Trinidad and Tobago, and resulted in a 0-0 draw. The goalless result in a non-friendly was the first for the United States since their World Cup game against Germany last summer, a run of nine games. It was their seventh clean sheet overall in that same time.

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Wages Are Still the Best Predictor of Results in MLS

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Isn’t it great when the numbers are on your side? When they are sure to make your case quickly, because one thing for certain is that those numbers will be different next season? As the first MLS semifinal weekend approaches, an examination of the wages paid by the final four teams has parity parrots talking. Both the New York Red Bulls and FC Dallas sit at the bottom of the league payroll but are at the top of the league in results and hosting the second leg of the semifinals. The payroll underdog story makes all fans feel good. But should it?

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How to Evaluate Defenders Using Data

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As the majority of us know, Major League Soccer has taken tremendous strides to improve the game over the past decade or so. There has been a strong drive to bring in aging stars such as David Beckham (31 years old), David Villa (32 years old), Thierry Henry (33 years old), and Kaka (32 years old). The premise of this strategy is that these stars, who are slightly past their prime, will be able to improve the fan base and the overall appeal of Major League Soccer. The majority of these players are attacking superstars, mainly because for fans, the most exciting part of the game always occurs in the scoring of goals. However games are not necessarily won by scoring a ton of goals, but rather (to loosely quote Louis Van Gaal) to “score one more goal than your opponent.”

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GOTY: ASA IDKMYBFFJILL

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The finalists have been announced! We’re down to three goalkeepers that are all quality players in their own right. Bill Hamid. Luis Robles. David Ousted. You know the names or else you wouldn’t be reading this. All three have led their team to playoffs and have just a little time left to show who should become the 2015 Audi Cup MLS Audi Goalkeeper of the Audi Year [sic]. But don’t take my word for it, let’s hear what each of the nominees have to say for themselves. Here at ASA, we’ve obtained quotes from each of the goalkeepers that may or may not actually be from the goalkeepers themselves.

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