A Less Hot Take Approach To Evaluating MLS Centerbacks

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It’s fun every once in a while to throw something out that you don’t really check before you press “tweet.” I did that a couple of days ago with a quick "hot take" on #Top10MLSCenterbacks.

This was something I did haphazardly after eyeballing a trio of stats (defensive actions, percentage of aerial battles (%AB) won and fouls committed). It wasn't thoroughly thought trough and I didn't consider many other important factors. That said, I believe there was something positive gained through the experience.

Obviously this list doesn’t encompass or order the players that we've come to think about when we talk MLS's best centerbacks. Its commonly accepted that Kendal Waston and Laurent Ciman are two of the very best centerbacks in the league with Matt Hedges and (recently departed) Omar Gonzalez close behind.

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The 2011 Galaxy: Lucky, Good, or Both?

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The 2011 LA Galaxy often gets credit for being the greatest Galaxy team of all time, and it’s certainly understandable why. They won the cup. They won the shield, and their ability to put games on defensive lockdown was legendary. 

23. That’s how many games the LA Galaxy were involved in in 2011 where the final point outcome was decided by a single goal. This means single goal wins, single goal losses and ties. That’s 68% of the entire season. Of those 23 games, the LA Galaxy won 12, tied 10 and lost only 1, acquiring 46 of the possible 69 points up for grabs. They couldn’t have been more clutch, which is why many (wrong) people consider them greater than the 2014 LA Galaxy team which was statistically superior in virtually every facet. The 2011 LA Galaxy simply took care of business.  

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Taking A Chance in MLS Roster Construction

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This off-season is a bit different for MLS fans as we have a sort of free-agency that enables a bit of extra chaos. The players now have a bit of freedom to move around the league and more influence in where they live and with whom the ply their craft. Most of us have already taken to the newly minted free-agent list and picked out their favorite Christmas present, be it Alan Gordon, Mike Magee, Justin Mapp or even Ricardo Clark or Drew Moor.

And with free-agency, it's inevitable that some club is probably going to give Nathan Sturgis another contract and another 1,000 or so minutes despite portraying the definition of a replacement level production. This isn't a personal attack against Sturgis, I'm sure he's a fine locker room guy and he sure does hustle a lot. These are tangible things to coaches and front office types.

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MLS Cup Goalkeepers Review and Yearly Awards

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Well it wasn’t Steve Clark’s best game. The first minute disaster will be the lasting memory for all Crew fans. Even when Columbus scored to make it 2-1 early in the game, it still felt like Columbus was trying to recover from an insurmountable debt. The gaffe was replayed at least twenty times over the duration of the broadcast. However Clark was far from the worst problem on the field. Anyone that wants to put the loss on Clark’s shoulders is ignoring the other 89 minutes of the game.

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Darlington Nagbe And The Very Good Season

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A couple of weeks ago, while listening to Major League Soccer Soccer dot com's very own podcast, Extra Time Radio, Alexi Lalas provided some insight to the emergence Darlington Nagbe. The newly-minted US International and always-minted Portland starlet's blossoming can simply be chalked up to "more touches." It's not that I disagree with that synopsis, but I feel that is too simplistic.

Nagbe has been excellent for years. We've seen him time after time change matches with moments that are breathtaking. His biggest problem has always been consistency, going multiple matches without directly being the influence that should be expected from his talent. Of course, "consistency" is just sports fans' code word for "he's not good enough often enough."

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MLS Cup 2015: Where the goals come from

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The purpose of this post is to investigate the origin of regular season goals conceded and scored for both teams. I have aggregated the Portland Timbers and Columbus Crew’s goal locations in order to shed some light on their defensive and offensive strengths. 

The Portland Timbers are one of the best defensive teams in the league with 39 goals conceded and five goals conceded in the playoffs. Conversely, the Columbus Crew are one of the best offensive teams in the league with fearsome firepower in the likes of Kei Kamara. They conceded 52 regular season goals and three more in the playoffs. 

When looking at the ratio of goals scored to goals conceded, Columbus Crew’s attacking strengths compensated for their propensity for leaking goals with a 1.096 ratio. The Portland Timbers finished with a regular season ratio of 1.051. 

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Model Projections: Crew Favored to Win MLS Cup 2015

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As you probably know, after each playoff game we've been projecting the remainder of the MLS Playoffs 50,000 times using our expected goals model. Yesterday we did it for the last time in 2015. The odds for both Portland and Columbus are listed to the right.

There are plenty of limitations to our model - it doesn't account for injuries, it doesn't care about formations (Nagbe in the single pivot, anyone?), and we still can't predict weather patterns - but on the whole it has been pretty accurate.

Given those limitations, to some 65% odds for Columbus may seem high, and they are certainly pretty favorable odds in a game pundits are calling a fairly even matchup. Consider that the Crew had the 4th highest expected goals against (xGA) this season,  which was worse than Chicago, Orlando, and Philadelphia, and you may be even more confused.

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2015 Final PScore: What happens when both teams high press?

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The end of season numbers have been tabulated and there are some final observations about how MLS teams played tactically this season. In case you’re new to PScore, the goal is to describe numerically how a team plays tactically. There are two numbers that make up the score; one that assess how directly or indirectly a team passes the ball and another that measures where a team sets up their defensive line of pressure. Looking at the team offensively and defensively we can observe their tactical tendencies and ultimately determine which style of play is most effective for each team.

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Conference Final Home Teams Have A First-leg Up

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As you probably know, we've been projecting the MLS playoffs after each round of games. Using a bivariate Poisson model, we simulate goal scoring based off our expected goals model. Given that goals are an essential ingredient for emulating soccer's two-legged system, this has proven quite important, and the conference finals are no different.  

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MLS Semifinals Tactical Preview

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There are a multitude of tactical questions facing each remaining team in the MLS Cup Playoffs. Can New York's retooled wing-backs be relied on to defend capably? Can the Crew maintain a consistent attack with Federico Higuain's inconsistent performances? Can anything be done to stop Dallas' attack through Mauro Diaz and Fabian Castillo? And how will suspensions affect Portland's midfield? I'll examine each of these questions and provide a tactical preview of of the Conference Finals below.

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