Updated Playoff Seeding Projections

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Updated Playoff Seeding Projections

We have updated our playoff seeding projections on our web application, which show the probability that each team finishes in each playoff seed postion within its conference. We have done this in years past, but dedicated fans of the site will recognize that this is a bit earlier in the season than usual. Some tweaks to the predictive model have allowed us to publish meaningful predictions sooner! I’m here to tell you about those tweaks.

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CBA Talk: Comparing MLS Player Salaries to Leagues Around the World

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CBA Talk: Comparing MLS Player Salaries to Leagues Around the World

Before the 2020 Major League Soccer season begins the owners and players will need to negotiate a new collective bargaining agreement. Metaphorically speaking, we could compare this negotiation to a pie eating contest, with the wrinkle being there is only one pie, and the goal is to eat the biggest piece. The fans offer the ingredients for this pie in the form of revenue, but it’s the league, the owners and the players who get to eat it. This contest won’t happen on the Coney Island Boardwalk or be streamed on ESPN+, but from time to time someone will emerge with public declarations intended to meddle with our opinions, and therefore put pressure on the other sides of the negotiation. Because we make the pie, you see, we ultimately decide how big it gets, so our opinions matter.

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Expected Narratives: What if it isn't Frank's Fault?

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Expected Narratives: What if it isn't Frank's Fault?

I tried to wait before doing the whole “What is happening to Atlanta?” narrative, because it seemed exactly like the kind of thing that would bite me in the ass within a week of publication. We’re now seven weeks into the new season and last year’s defending champions and league darlings have been almost entirely terrible since the start of the team’s third campaign. I’m bringing it up today because of a tweet I saw that gave me pause like no tweet other than that one about Darryl and Socrates.
(photo courtesy of atlutd.com)

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Lowered Expectations: The Misidentification of Will Johnson

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Welcome to Lowered Expectations! Here we review some of the weekend’s best open-play shot attempts which did not quite live up to expectations. We break down the GIFs through the lens of our expected goal model and discuss each one evaluating the results, and  also the process.

 

This week, we have a couple of shots by Houston, which gives us opportunity to discuss their overall team as they leave Week 7 undefeated. Columbus makes a surprise appearance lead by Pedro Santos. Philadelphia gives me an opportunity to rant about crosses. There is a Will Johnson imposter in Orlando, we talk about Big Chances in expected goal models and lastly we take on goals shot from crazy angles!  LET’S GET TO IT!

 

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Lowered Expectations: We're Back!

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Lowered Expectations: We're Back!

WELCOME BACK EVERYONE! It’s time for 2019 Lowered Expectations.

Welcome to Lowered Expectations, 2019 edition! Each week, we go about reviewing GIFs of the weekend’s best open-play shot attempts which did not quite live up to expectations (and rarely do we update this paragraph). We look at each one and not only evaluate the results, but also the process leading to them.

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Matt Hedges' Quiet New Role in Dallas

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Matt Hedges' Quiet New Role in Dallas

This past offseason Dallas hired Academy Director Luchi Gonzalez as the teams new head coach and Oscar Pareja’s replacement. Gonzalez was commissioned with the task of integrating the organization’s youth with the first team. This is a rather fitting assignment since over the last three years Gonzalez was, as mentioned, the Academy Director.

Obviously Gonzalez is going to be the one who best knows what Dallas has in terms of young talent, and how to find a tactical style that best fits their pieces. He’s brought with him fresh tactics to incorporate the young talented players, and he comes at a time when Dallas needed a twist to their first team’s style. The departure of Mauro Diaz, the little unicorn, has caused consternation in how the attack operated after his transfer and lead to issues of its own last summer.

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Expected Narratives: Sebastian Who?

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Expected Narratives: Sebastian Who?

I was five years old when I made my first team debut for the Kickerz’ Recreational Soccer League Under 7 Reds. I'll never forget what it felt like to pull on that red tee shirt with the number fifty nine emblazoned across the back in the traditional white Bauhaus ITC font. After our customary pre match traditions, the lineups were announced and I made my way to the substitutes bench. I waited with equal parts anticipation and dread for the gaffer to call my number. I wasn’t made to wait long. We were 12 minutes into our opening 15 minute half when I was summoned to midfield to make my long awaited entrance. I was told that I was to play “stopper” I had never heard of this position before, and little did I know at the time that I was playing an integral role in the tactical development of the defensive midfielder. Too nervous to ask for further clarification on my role in the boss’ system, I just assumed that as I was QUITE bad, I was meant to play some form of defense.

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Expected Narratives: There's a Bad Loon on the Rise

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Expected Narratives: There's a Bad Loon on the Rise

It finally happened! I got one right last week! I did! I was doing a sarcasm and lo and behold I got a take dead on. ANALYSIS! Yes Atlanta and Cincinnati did in fact turn out to be a low scoring affair between two evenly matched sides. It feels like six months ago I was called a straight up hater for raising my eyebrows at De Boer’s most recent entries on his resume, but now discussing whether or not he knows what he’s doing is the take du jour. What can I say folks? I was bashing FDB before most of you had even heard of him. I have it on vinyl.

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Almeyda and Schelotto: Two New MLS Coaches and their Distinctive Styles

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Almeyda and Schelotto: Two New MLS Coaches and their Distinctive Styles

Matias Almeyda and Guillermo Barros Schelotto are two of the most experienced managers in MLS history. They are also both just beginning their careers as MLS coaches.

To start his managerial career, Almeyda retired as a player and took over a River Plate side that had been relegated for the first time in club history. Immediately after that season, he led the team back to promotion with a first place finish in the second division. Almeyda did the same with Banfield in Argentina, winning his second Primera B Nacional title. At Chivas Guadalajara in 2015, Almeyda inherited another difficult situation, tasked with bringing the Mexican giant back into the spotlight. With Chivas, Almeyda won Copa MX twice, Supercopa MX, Liga MX, and CONCACAF Champions League. Now, he has embarked on a new journey with the San Jose Earthquakes, who finished in last place in 2018.

After leading the Columbus Crew to an MLS Cup as a player (he won both league MVP and Finals MVP in 2008), Guillermo Barros Schelotto started his managing career with Lanus in Argentina. He led the club to a Copa Sudamericana, the second most prestigious club competition in South America. Schelotto then signed with the club he spent most of his playing career with, Boca Juniors, and led them to two league titles.

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