Offseason Outlook: DC United

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This was supposed to be The Year for DC United. After moving into a new stadium in 2018, signing Wayne Rooney, bringing Bill Hamid back, and managing to keep Luciano Acosta from leaving for PSG, most people had DC among the Eastern Conference favorites for the 2019 season.

Things didn’t quite go that way, though DC did manage to finish 5th in the East and make the playoffs.

There’s a lot of different things that went not quite according to plan for DC, but the biggest disappointment was the attack. After finishing 2018 in great form the attack looked positioned to lead DC to great things in 2019 and it simply fell flat.

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Offseason Outlook: Seattle Sounders

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Offseason Outlook: Seattle Sounders

"Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!" - The Red Queen

If I were a General Manager in Major League Soccer (and if my writing for this site has made anything clear, it’s that I definitely should not and will not be), I’d have that quote hanging above my door. Not only was Lewis Carroll the Bill James of the literary nonsense genre, but it’s a good reminder that in the world of professional sports even the king of the mountain needs to keep climbing if they want to stay on top. Yes. Seattle are entering the offseason as champions, but if they want to defend that title, they’ve got a lot of work to do between now and opening day

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Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Union

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Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Union

The Philadelphia Union are still enjoying their tenth and best season. They won their first playoff game against the I-95 rival New York Red Bulls. They won their most ever road games and finished third in a competitive eastern conference. Jim Curtin was given the freedom by SD Ernst Tanner to change formations, and he implemented enough tactical diversity to maintain an edge. It was the culture building season the franchise had been working toward, but their ability to continue this momentum will come down to the key new faces that Tanner is working diligently to add.

First, let’s document some visual proof of the relative Union’s success. The below chart reveals the five game moving average of the Union’s points per game over their history. Even a five game average is rough on the eyes, so I added one of the all-time great smoothing techniques to help. Velleman’s Smoother, developed by Paul Velleman, is the Johnny Walker Blue of smoothers. Let your eyes drink it up.

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Offseason Outlook: FC Dallas

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Offseason Outlook: FC Dallas

For better and for worse, FC Dallas is in the tween years with their current squad and head coach. First year head coach Luchi Gonzalez was very adamant about his team playing a certain style and cemented an identity in the team that the players embraced. It did not matter who they were playing or where the game was being held, Dallas was going to line up the same way (hybrid 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1) and were encouraged to play out of the back.

At times they were brilliant and managed sequences of 40+ passes before the opponent could even get close to the ball, but there were also moments of awkwardness when pressed out of their comfort zone and they lacked ideas of how to get the ball out or how to move forward. Just like a prepubescent kid, they occasionally appeared uncomfortable and completely unsure of themselves.

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Offseason Outlook: FC Cincinatti

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FC Cincinnati’s life in MLS started in 2019 with a roster build that received a near-universal side-eye. The year ended with the team grasping for scraps of dignity (rough translation: losing every hand in a game of strip poker on a very, very cold day). The 2019 season would see Cincy take disturbingly credible runs at the league records so awful that they looked like they’d haunt the teas that set them for year to come, maybe decades – e.g., DC United’s 2013 record for single-season losses (24) or Orlando City SC’s 2018 record for goals allowed (74).

Cincinnati took only one of those records – the new high-low bar for goals allowed is 75! – but, sweet baby Jesus, did their season die a brutal death and with abundant co-morbidities. Long scoring droughts ruthlessly paired with defensive meltdowns throughout the 2019 season (e.g., a 1-5 road loss to Orlando, a home loss by the same score to Toronto FC, or the 1-7 mid-season loss at Minnesota, aka, The Game that Stabbed Hope Over and Over and Over and Over and Over and Over and Over).

So, what the hell happened? What went wrong, I mean besides “so many things, more than the hairs on your back”?

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Offseason Outlook: Atlanta United Football Club

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Offseason Outlook: Atlanta United Football Club

Following the departure of left back Mikey Ambrose and the new more expensive deal for Miles Robinson, there are two Supplemental Roster spots open, so Atlanta will need to fill these two spots with players who are making the senior minimum, or Generation Adidas, or a specifically designated SuperDraft picks, or a homegrowns. I would bet on a 2020 first round draft pick holding one spot and something creative happening with the other, some sort of loan where Atlanta only pays the senior minimum and the home club takes the rest perhaps.

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Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles FC

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It’s hard to feel, well, anything really about how LAFC finished in 2019. You don’t exactly feel sorry for the MLS juggernaut that came to conquer all and lay claim to ‘greatest MLS team ever’, but didn’t. Carlos Vela and Bob Bradley seemed so cocksure and full of swagger that their inevitable comeuppance at the hands of the Seattle Sounders was almost satisfying for MLS neutrals. For LAFC fans, it would certainly be disappointing if they hadn’t be treated to so many other wonderful delights in the 2019 season. Ricky Bobby / Ron Burgundy / More Cowbell United earned Supporters Shield on the back of an outrageous record-setting 72 point season, and they did it with a record-shattering Goal Differential of +48. The previous mark of +41 had been set by the LA Galaxy way back in 1998. Their star player won the MVP award while breaking the goal scoring record, as Vela found the net an outrageous 34 times. And all that, in just their second year of existence. So if 3252 members are looking for tea and sympathy amongst other MLS fans, they ain’t gonna get it.

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Offseason Outlook: New York Red Bulls

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Offseason Outlook: New York Red Bulls

The New York Red Bulls have a strong developmental and tactical system in place, from the first team to the academy, allowing them to maintain a high floor performance-wise, as the losses of several high-profile players have not negatively affected them as much as expected. However, the team’s lack of spending (3rd lowest salary outlay in the league) on high-end talent appeared to catch up with them this season, as their point total plummeted from 71 to 48. More importantly in terms of future performance, its xP dropped from 58.8 to 47.6. Additionally, its xGD dropped from the second highest in the league in 2018—18.6—to right around the equator (3.8). In English, the Red Bulls went from being one of the league’s elite teams to one that was merely average. With major contracts like Bradley Wright-Phillips’ coming off the books this offseason, as well as the potential departure of stalwart and 2018 MLS Defender of the Year Aaron Long, the Red Bulls have the opportunity to retool their roster significantly to complement their steady pipeline of MLS-ready academy players. Either that, or they are looking at a severe personnel crisis that could see them lose ground to more profligate clubs.

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Offseason Outlook: Vancouver Whitecaps

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Offseason Outlook: Vancouver Whitecaps

Let’s just say 2019 was not kind to the Vancouver Whitecaps or their supporters. Vancouver finished last in the Western Conference, ahead of only FC Cincinnati in the overall MLS standings. There were some positives, such as the development of Derek Cornelius and Maxime Crepeau looking like a decent goalkeeper with the potential to improve. That said, our expected goals model actually suggests that the Whitecaps did better in 2019 than they would have been expected to, picking up 34 points against an expected 30.7, so...not great.

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Offseason Outlook: Portland Timbers

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Offseason Outlook: Portland Timbers

Whether or not we’re ready to admit it, The Diego Era in Portland is nearly at its end. Each season, even as Valeri and Chara continue to prove they are less impacted by time than the rest of us, we see the sun setting on the horizon. It may not happen in 2020, but sooner rather than later we’ll be reading about the next iteration of the Timbers.

Still, though we feel the darkness creeping in, this is not the end. We must cherish our time spent in The Diego Era, now more than ever. In a way it is easier now, knowing our time here is limited. And although the team has a Designated Player spot open, until the day of reckoning arrives, Portland’s roster will see only changes around the edges.

With that said, let’s get this out of the way…

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