The Philadelphia Union are still enjoying their tenth and best season. They won their first playoff game against the I-95 rival New York Red Bulls. They won their most ever road games and finished third in a competitive Eastern Conference. Jim Curtin was given the freedom by Sporting Director Ernst Tanner to change formations, and he implemented enough tactical diversity to maintain an edge. It was the culture building season the franchise had been working toward, but their ability to continue this momentum will come down to the key new faces that Tanner is working diligently to add.

First, let’s document some visual proof of the relative Union’s success. The below chart reveals the five game moving average of the Union’s points per game over their history. Even a five game average is rough on the eyes, so I added one of the all-time great smoothing techniques to help. Velleman’s Smoother, developed by Paul Velleman, is the Johnny Walker Blue of smoothers. Let your eyes drink it up.

The first observation is that the Union were basically a middle table team for the better part of nine years - a few ups and downs but generally average. But after a short burst late in 2018 they found their most sustained success in 2019. Between March and May of 2019 the Union averaged over two points per game across two stretches. They did come back to Earth after that, but as the red box shows the avoided the disastrous periods that plagued them in seasons past.

Looking at goal difference metrics reveals the same trend.

Their best season was 2019, narrowly beating out their first playoff season in 2011. It’s worth noting that over the past three seasons the Union have bucked their long running trend of underperforming xGD.

Big Departures in Philadelphia

Ernst Tanner does not appear to be one to rest on the laurels of a good trend. Three key players for the Union were let go and a few more key departures are likely imminent. The Union let defensive center midfielder Haris Medunjanin go to Cincinnati. They traded two-way winger Fafa Picault to Dallas, and they opted to let Mexican national Marco Fabian walk. They’ve made offers to critical midfielder Jamiro Montero and supersub Ilshino, but neither has taken the bait. After the season Tanner was not optimistic Monteiro would return.

Let’s start with Medunjanin. The Union will miss his 11 assists from the deep lying playmaker role, though he was never the double pivot partner for Alejandro Bedoya that Curtin was looking for. Early in the season when the Union were deploying the 4-4-2 diamond, the shuttlers had to work hard to cover the lack of deep defense. The Union will likely focus on a more defensive minded stopper who can link well with Bedoya in the center of the field.

The loss of Medunjanin’s assists will be felt even more following the loss of key attacking midfield pieces. Fabian and Picault are going to be tough to replace, not just because of the 12 goals and three assists they offered, but they played in an attacking midfield that is almost completely dismantled, especially if Ilshino and Monteiro don’t return. Ilshino is better off the bench anyway, and Monteiro is best suited as a central midfielder, but as it currently stands only 19 year old Brandon Aaronson is set up in the attacking part of the pitch. This is where Tanner will earn his paycheck, or the Union will slide back into mediocrity.

At forward the Union appear to have options, so Curtin might be thinking about ways to play two forwards. Andrew Wooten, Sergio Santos and Corey Burke will all return and join last year’s revelation Kacper Przybylko up top. There are definitely goals and team players in this group, and the Union should have enough punch up top. If there’s one player who might be able to slide into a wing position is Sergio Santos who showed a dynamic game, even if it was interrupted often by injuries.

The defense remains intact, although Tanner will likely look to upgrade right back where Ray Gaddis played last year. Andre Blake is coming off his worst season in goal and will look to add more highlight reel saves to his resume next season. The central defense is in fine shape with young defenders Mark McKenzie and Jack Elliott who both play well with the ball at their feet. The Union did trade long time starter Auston Trusty earlier this offseason, which is a big hit to their depth, especially since other backer Aurelien Collin is also unsigned. At left back is the Union’s other 2019 revelation, Kai Wagner, who is set in stone. He was solid both in defense and going forward, and stands as Tanner’s best find from the 3rd division in Germany.

To best highlight the work that Tanner has in front of him it might be best to look at the current starting lineup, without promoting anyone from the bench.

There is a clear need to add two or three strong starters in the midfield, and that’s assuming you’re willing to hand the attacking midfield responsibilities to a 19 year old. This lineup also fails to highlight that outside of the forward position, the bench is extremely light. One of the Union’s strength’s last season was that they had sufficient depth to cover injuries and adapt tactically. No such bench strength exists.

So in Tanner Union fans must trust. Even if he does fill these glaring holes over the coming months there will be some serious synapses that will need to be connected, and it will take time to come together. Perhaps the under-appreciated contributor to the Union’s 2019 success was the consistency in the midfield with Bedoya, Medunjanin, Picault and Ilshino all having worked multiple years together. That union is gone, and a new one needs to be developed.

American Soccer Analysis

Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Union

American Soccer Analysis