Scream and Shout: an xClaim Model for Goalkeeper Cross Collection

Scream and Shout: an xClaim Model for Goalkeeper Cross Collection

By Kieran Doyle

Ever since we built goals added (g+) oh so many years ago, I’ve largely been unhappy with how we’ve treated goalkeepers here at ASA. ASA, the masterful puppeteer in the shadows crafting the rise of Matt Turner and Djordje Petrovic to the Premier League, letting them down! And so, my fellow analytics practitioners, ask not what your goalkeeper can do for you, but what you can do for your goalkeeper.

ASA and the analytics community at large has gotten to a pretty good place with goalkeeper shotstopping, at least with event only data. You scale the saves they make by the quality of chances they face, you accept that’s a pretty noisy metric season to season, it tracks directly to goals, it’s sort of easy. We have done a somewhat less good job looking at how the other parts of being a goalkeeper impact the game. Goals added does an okay job, assigning the value of their sweeping to the situations they interrupt. But it’s an imperfect picture, the whole point of sweeping is that you are preventing a much more dangerous situation from occurring further down the road, but where you are now is not actually that dangerous on its own. The ball playing side is similar, goalkeepers are so far from goal that aside from long kicks up the field, virtually all the passing they do is meaningless in the eye of a possession value model. 

Today, though, we start with cross claiming. If you take the entire MLS dataset we have at ASA, the most productive cross claiming season by g+ is about +0.5 g+ across the entire season. Half a goal. Intercepting a cross in the 6 yard box off the head of a striker itself is worth half a goal! It’s wrong, and I won’t stand for this goalkeeper cross claiming erasure #GKUnion. 

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A New Goalkeeper Metric: Clean Sheets Earned (CSE)

By David Almona

At the end of a season in soccer, the Golden Glove is awarded to the goalkeeper that has kept the most clean sheets. It seems intuitive, as being the last line of defense, their job is mainly to stop any shots that make it past the defense from entering the goal. However, a clean sheet is when the team prevents their opponent from scoring, not just the goalkeeper; it’s a team effort.

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Where Goals Come From: FIFA Men’s World Cup Edition

How scoring in the Men's World Cup compares to domestic leagues

By Jamon Moore

During the pandemic, when Carlon Carpenter and I researched the impact of certain types of soccer passes, we were blown away by how important they were to goal scoring. We wrote 10 articles about them throughout 2021, called the “Where Goals Come From” series. Even from those 10 articles, we never imagined the reach they would have in clubs across the world. 

Now, we examine the world’s premier competition and compare it to our original and ongoing research on how shots are created and goals are scored in domestic league competitions.

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MLS is Back, Futi Style

By Kieran Doyle

MLS is back on Thursday, as we return from the World Cup break into a season finely poised to be one of the most fun we’ve had in quite some time. At the same time, our friends John Muller and Mike Imburgio have launched their new app, Futi. I’m sure they agonized over every word of their tagline, so I’ll copy it here: 

The new app that makes football make sense. Follow your favorite teams and players with real-time scores, shareable data visuals and pro analytics made simple.

 While ideologically we believe it’s called soccer, the app definitely does what it says on the tin. As such, I thought it’d be fun to dig in and see what Futi tells me to keep an eye on as we welcome MLS Saturday night’s back into our hearts. If you like what you see here (every image in here will be right out of the iOS app), head to futi.live and check it out for yourself.

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A 2026 NWSL Midseason Analysis From the Lens of Expected Threat

By Theresa Pham

Expected Threat (xT) is a model that estimates the value of a pass or carry based on its likelihood of leading to a shot and the danger associated with that shot. Unlike Karun Singh’s original xT framework, which relies entirely on historical transition probabilities, this version incorporates a logistic expected goals (xG) component to better capture shot quality. This analysis is inspired by similar work conducted by Chloe Sainsbury in 2025.

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Throw-in It Back

Towards a manual for the most common restart

By Ben Bellman

Whether you love long attacking throw-ins or hate them, there is no denying that they’ve become both a key feature and flashpoint in men’s soccer in the past year. John Muller likely sparked a renaissance of the tactic (and a soon-to-be Arsenal title) with his 2023 article for The Athletic, and Joe Lowery and I borrowed his method for Backheeled when Minnesota United started longthrowmaxxing in 2025 (Editor’s note: Minnesota work with Mike Imburgio through ASA’s firewalled consulting arm). But while each game has about 40 throw-ins on average, only about 10 of those throws happen close enough to reach the box. But apart from Formerly Called Twitter jokes about consultant Thomas Grønnemark, there hasn’t been much commentary about all the other ones in popular media or public analytics circles. The only exceptions I’m aware of are Eliot McKinley’s 2018 two-part opus on this very website, and some recent academic work on the top 5 European leagues that, if you like in-text citations and interpreting regressions, is an excellent spoiler for the rest of this article.

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2026 NWSL Previews: Washington Spirit, Gotham FC

Our 2026 NWSL Season Previews have started and today we hit the Washington Spirit and NJ/NY Gotham. If you want to support this coverage of the league, you can head to our Patreon. For $5 a month you can get access to a lot of the data visualization tools we use to make these previews.

If you’re more of an audio person, our friends at Expected Own Goals spoke to Riss Willett of Shea Butter FC to talk Spirit, and Jenna Tonelli of Sports Illustrated on Gotham, available wherever you get your pods. If you want to support them, you can head to their Patreon.

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2026 NWSL Previews: Portland Thorns, KC Current

Our 2026 NWSL Season Previews have started and today we hit Portland and KC.. If you want to support this coverage of the league, you can head to our Patreon. For $5 a month you can get access to a lot of the data visualization tools we use to make these previews.

If you’re more of an audio person, our friends at Expected Own Goals spoke to Phuoc Nguyen from Stumptown Footy to talk Portland, and Cindy Lara from the KC Sports Journal on the Current, available wherever you get your pods. If you want to support them, you can head to their Patreon.

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2026 NWSL Previews: Seattle Reign, Orlando Pride

Our 2026 NWSL Season Previews have started and today we hit Seattle and Orlando. If you want to support this coverage of the league, you can head to our Patreon. For $5 a month you can get access to a lot of the data visualization tools we use to make these previews.

If you’re more of an audio person, our friends at Expected Own Goals spoke to Kari Anderson from Yahoo about the Reign, and Abigail Segel from The XI and Defector about Orlando, available wherever you get your pods. If you want to support them, you can head to their Patreon.

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2026 NWSL Previews: Racing Louisville, San Diego Wave

Our 2026 NWSL Season Previews have started and today we hit Racing Louisville and San Diego Wave. If you want to support this coverage of the league, you can head to our Patreon. For $5 a month you can get access to a lot of the data visualization tools we use to make these previews.

If you’re more of an audio person, our friends at Expected Own Goals podded about San Diego and Louisville, available wherever you get your pods. If you want to support them, you can head to their Patreon.

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