What “Where Goals Come From” Says about Your Team after MLS 2025 Week 10: Eastern Conference Edition
/During the pandemic, when Carlon Carpenter and I researched the impact of certain types of soccer passes, we were blown away by how important they were to goal scoring. We wrote 10 articles about them throughout 2021, called the “Where Goals Come From” series. There was so much material, we could have written 25 articles -- many ideas have never emerged and hopefully will still come out at some point (or we’ll work with clubs to implement as their own competitive advantage). Even from those 10 articles, we never imagined the reach they would have in clubs across the world.
Now feels like the right time to bring this back and examine further how the concepts introduced in these articles impact the sport, particularly in an unpredictable league like Major League Soccer. I’m grateful fellow ASA analysts Sebastian Bush and Arman Kafai have joined me for this phase of the journey.
Here’s a quick primer / refresher on the Where Goals Come From concepts:
-Jamon
Where Goals Come From
In a nutshell, there were four key concepts in those first 10 Where Goal Come From articles (along with practical team training tips from Carlon). I’ve linked the best article for understanding these and provided a relevant visual. If you have questions, ask me on BlueSky.
There are five Goal Categories
42% of all goals are scored from shots that come from a completed Progressive Pass
In these five goal categories are 12 goal types
Outside of penalty kicks, the best conversion rates come from through balls, cutbacks, crosses, and various progressive balls, most often from the half-spaces or attacking zones of the box.
We can use Expected Goals (xG) Tiers to talk generally about shot quality
The xG Tiers help us describe shot quality in a simplistic way as fans, as analysts, as sporting clubs, and with players.
Great xG - Improves the average Goal Conversion Rate by 4x or higher
Good xG - Improves the average Goal Conversion Rate by about 2x
Average xG - Provides the average Goal Conversion Rate
Poor xG - Worsens the average Goal Conversion Rate by 2x or more
Most good teams consistently generate more shots or produce higher quality shots than their opponents. Elite teams do both and know how to create goals from them
80% of all goals are scored in zone 17 in front of the goal, but some types of shots are more effective. Better Goal Differential comes from turning possessions into shots and shots into goals at an efficient rate while preventing the same in your opponents.
That’s enough introduction. Let’s talk about the teams!
Cincinnati
1st place, 7-1-2, 22 points, 15 GF, 12 GA, +3 GD
The second through seventh place teams in the East all can boast a better goal differential than FC Cincinnati. Most have given up fewer goals and most have scored more goals. Sometimes the answer to why a team is at the top of the table is not all that exciting. In FC Cincinnati’s case, they’ve won five straight one-goal games, three of them on the road. Through that five game stretch, they’ve scored the first (or only) goal in four of them. Things were a bit bumpy during Concacaf Champions Cup, but lately it’s been steady-as-she-goes.
Kévin Denkey’s been good overall and has an exciting flair to his play. He’s 10th in the league in xG, and in a seven-way tie for third for the golden boot, but Evander has as many goals on much less xG. However, I am looking forward to seeing where this combination goes from here, even if it is not connecting consistently yet.
They don’t give up goals at home, although xG says they could give up more, and they stay in games on the road, and often get the home team chasing them. That’s a winning formula in MLS, and Cincy has more wins than anyone else in the East.
-Jamon
Columbus
2nd place, 6-3-1, 21 points, 14 GF, 8 GA, +6 GD
The Columbus Crew had a slower start to the season after the departure of Cucho Hernandez to Real Betis: Wilfred Nancy and co. had to re-organize the squad and get them results while the front office looked to find Hernandez’s replacement. The Crew added Daniel Gazdag from the Union and now seems to be clicking, even after their loss against Miami earlier this month.
Per ASA, the Crew are seventh in non-penalty xGD (npxGD). The team’s progressive pass xG and overall performances have been better than what we saw in 2024; with the CCC congestion that continued for the Crew that year, the team had to juggle with squad rotations. Their npxG in 2024 was 1.04 per game through 10 matches; this year it’s 1.57, led by Diego Rossi (.37) and Max Arfsten (.32). Rossi has taken a bigger role, but as has Arfsten, who’s npxG+xA leads the team (if you don’t include the limited minutes of Daniel Gazdag).
-Arman
Philadelphia
3rd place, 6-1-3, 19 points, 19 GF, 9 GA, +9 GD
The Union has been on fire, mostly thanks to Tai Baribo. The team leads MLS in the Progressive Pass category goals with 9, and Baribo has been responsible for 7 (!!) of those. In fact, every single one of Baribo’s goals has come from a progressive pass.
The good news for the Union is that they’re beginning to find other outlets as well (yay for not over relying on one guy!). Bruno Damiani has been key in offering attacking output when Baribo isn’t on the field, but he’s majorly underperforming his xG and has missed three of four great xG chances. This isn’t just a Damiani issue, though, the whole team has been sloppy when it comes to converting great chances, but this should even out over time.
Overall, despite a shoddy three game stretch at the end of March/beginning of April, Philadelphia’s attack is in a great spot moving forward. The Union sit top of the Eastern conference in goals scored and the only reason anyone is close is because a certain team in yellow decided to score seven in one game last week.
Defensively, Union fans shouldn’t be too concerned. Sure, they’re susceptible to the long ball and could work on limiting progressive passes in general, but these aren’t warning flags of a defense that’s about to collapse. In fact, in almost every other category, Philadelphia is playing very well. The team may have fallen to third, but don’t be mistaken, this is still a top, top team.
-Sebastian
Charlotte
4th place, 6-1-3, 19 points, 16 GF, 8 GA, +8 GD
Hmmm, what do I talk about with Charlotte? I wonder how they create shots?
Ah. Charlotte only knows how to shoot and score on the break where they can play in behind through balls and fast progressive balls.
Their overall style seems to be working so far as they’ve conceded very few open play goals and no set piece goals so far. Just don’t ask them to break down a deep block.
-Jamon
Inter Miami
5th place, 5-3-1, 18 points, 16 GF, 10 GA, +6 GD
Miami’s such a funny team to write about in an analytical sense. They’re a team that legitimately broke all the analytical numbers last season because they have arguably the best soccer player ever in Leo Messi and one of the premier finishers in Luis Suarez. However, they’re coming off a shocking 4-3 loss to FC Dallas (without their key players) and now sit fifth in the East with a negative xGD.
One of the key standouts was how Miami was finishing their chances. You may say finishing isn’t real, but Miami absolutely smashed their Post-shot xG (PSxG) last season. xPlacement is the difference between the pre and post-shot xG models. A higher number means that the respective PSxG was higher than the pre.
Suarez led MLS with a 7.35 xPlacement number. And when I mean led MLS in that number, I mean led the ASA dataset that dates back to 2013 (where Mike Magee sits 2nd). In 2024, Suarez was averaging .58 npxG per 90. That has diminished to .32, and those post-shot numbers have reverted back to reality. It’s a question of whether Miami can find an output up top or if Suarez is truly declining at a faster rate than they expected.
-Arman
Nashville
6th place, 5-1-4, 16 points, 19 GF, 13 GA, +6 GD
They had 12 goals through nine games. Then a seven-goal outburst against the Fire on Saturday boosted them into a tie with Philadelphia for most goals through 10 games in the East. Is it a sign of better things to come on the attacking side?
This was their Goals - Expected Goals (G - xG) through nine games across the five goal categories:
You can see here they were seven goals underwater (7.02 to be exact) from their xG. Even seven goals against Chicago only made up 2.5 of that gap.
They’ve also generated the most total Great xG in the league this season, but that includes seven penalty attempts (four converted), which dampens my enthusiasm quite a bit. They just don’t generate enough Good xG quality shots from open play if the penalties go away, which makes the higher xG unsustainable.
This isn’t on just one player, but Sam Surridge owns 2.7 xG of the remaining G-xG gap of -4.6. With or without penalties included, he has the second-lowest G-xG in the league even after a four-goal game (that chart shows a lot of misses within 8 yards). If he, Hany, Alex Muyl, and the others that are underwater with him can close that gap and break even or close to it, Nashville has a good chance at a top four finish. If not, expect them to remain in a lower playoff spot just given the quality above them. My bet is still on the latter given the quality in front of them.
-Jamon
Orlando City
7th place, 4-4-2, 16 points, 18 GF, 12 GA, +6 GD
Orlando City has continuously been a hot-and-cold team, but their ideas are in the right spot. Through 10 games, the team is second in MLS in xG in the Progressive Pass category, which is quite literally where goals come from in soccer. That, much like Columbus was, is more than double the amount they had at the same point last season, marking a big improvement from where they were offensively.
If Orlando keeps this up, they’ll be fine when it comes to making the postseason. They just need to get results that are better at home, including a draw against NYRB and a draw against lowly Montreal.
-Arman
NY Red Bulls
8th place, 4-3-3, 15 points, 11 GF, 9 GA, +2 GD
Mid. They’re mid. Offensively, despite a slow start to the season, New York has been producing some high xG chances. They’re still underperforming their xG though, and it’s all down to the “good” but not “great” shots — the Red Bulls have taken 17 such shots this season and have yet to score a single one. While that isn’t anything catastrophic, it’s a reflection of where this team is at. And no, Choupo-Moting is not the problem (he’s not the solution either, though).
Last season’s playoff success wasn’t built off of a high-flying offense, though; it was the defensive fortitude that kept the Red Bulls in games. Unfortunately, they’ve seemingly forgotten-... wait, what’s that? Their defense is actually better this year? Huh. Would you look at that?
-Sebastian
New York City
9th place, 4-2-4, 14 points, 12 GF, 13 GA, -1 GD
The story for NYCFC revolves around their defense, and, to be honest, they might be fortunate to be sitting in ninth versus a bit lower. Their GD-npxGD is a +4, which puts them sixth in MLS. The vast majority of that +4 is coming from their npxGA, which is amongst the bottom four in the league. Just take a look at their WCGF categories, both for and against.
As we’ve pointed out throughout the piece, progressive passes are where you’ll get your xG. If your opponents are racking up the xG in that category and not scoring, and it isn’t necessarily because of GKs (cough Zack Steffen cough), something's gotta give. Matt Freese’s numbers look normal and on par. Teams are converting great xG chances at a 20% clip, when they’re expected to be at 53%. Take a look at the PsxG numbers; almost every category is below what we see in the grey above.
The Pigeons need to clean up their defense while they can before the law of averages gets to them.
-Arman
New England
10th place, 4-1-4, 13 points, 7 GF, 7 GA, 0 GD
Three weeks ago, this conversation would have been very different. New England has three straight wins and three straight clean sheets, though, and things are looking better: Carles Gil is still the main man, the defense has been pretty sound now that it’s been given time to gel, and the Revs’ next opponent is second-to-last Toronto. Don’t start getting hyped on this team too early, though; there are some real reservations to be had about the Revs’ offense. Sure, Gil’s got 4 goals and games are going in the win column, but unless something changes, this is not sustainable. Just look at the Spaniard’s shot map:
Pens and screamers are not an effective long-term goal scoring strategy, folks. Maybe it’s just an isolated issue, though. What about the team as a whole?
Oh. Oh no. I don’t think I have to tell you that this xG distribution is not good. As Jamon put it: “what xG?”
-Sebastian
Chicago
11th place, 3-3-4, 12 points, 18 GF, 22 GA, -4 GD
If I was playing for Chicago, maybe we should consider not letting teams get onto so many crosses, not commit WPIOOTBGW mistakes, and stop fouling in the box. We’ve also given up the most Progressive Pass shots and goals in the league so far, so teams are getting behind us and finding space in dangerous areas. We should maybe, y’know, stop creating ways to lose points like the other Fire teams of the past decade.
Since our offense is pretty good, just preventing those catastrophes might help us win a few more instead of aspiring to be the Chaos Quakes of the East. Getting a shot at the playoffs play-in game would feel good at this point.
-Jamon
Atlanta United
12th place, 2-3-5, 9 points, 11 GF, 19 GA, -8 GD
Atlanta United are on Dallas Cowboys watch — every season feels like the beginning of something new (especially with the sheer volume of money going in and out) and yet, like clockwork, every season the “this year is our year” curse strikes again. Atlanta added Emmanuel Latte Lath, Miguel Almirón, and replaced Thiago Almada with Aleksey Miranchuk last summer, and yet, like clockwork, things are inevitably going wrong. Despite that star-studded offense, Atlanta is falling way behind their xG:
The good news is that a majority of that underperformance is coming in the progressive pass category, signifying that at least their patterns of play are positive. Why isn’t it going in the back of the net, then? Well, remember, not all progressive passes are made equal. The most “valuable” method of chance creation (in terms of scoring odds) is through balls, but Atlanta have failed to log any shots off of such passes this season.
While this may not explain the whole issue, it can help us understand why Atlanta’s production isn’t matching up with what we would expect given their broad patterns of play.
On the other side of the ball, Atlanta haven’t been doing themselves many favors, either. The xG against isn’t ideal, but isn’t terrible either:
They’ve conceded 19 though; instead of underperforming their xG like Atlanta, opponents facing the five stripes are overperforming it. Some of that is down to bad goalkeeping (Brad Guzan has been one of the three worst goalkeepers in MLS this season by GA-PSxG, minimum 800 minutes played), but it’s undeniable that there’s a certain degree of doubly bad luck playing a role in these outcomes. Atlanta is getting unlucky in the attack and unlucky defensively, too. You can’t rely on luck to make or break your season though, so the five stripes need to get moving if they hope to be competitive this year.
-Sebastian
D.C. United
13th place, 2-3-5, 9 points, 11 GF, 22 GA, -11 GD
In my observations, a team that is close to leading the league in Basic Pass xG Against and Set Piece Pass xG Against and giving up the most goals, is the very definition of a Swiss cheese defense -- holes everywhere. Look, the goalkeeping hasn’t been stellar, but the keepers are facing point-blank shots they shouldn’t be. Creating compactness needs to be the game plan here.
In the attack, it has to be more than just “find the tall guy with a cross”. Benteke is an outlier who will get his headed goals on whipped-in balls, just because he can out-jump everyone and has a specialized skill not seen in the league since Zlatan. But the problem is that there is nothing else going on here.
-Jamon
Toronto
14th place, 1-4-5, 7 points, 8 GF, 14 GA, -6 GD
It’s tough to write about Toronto because… they haven’t created much on the season. I mean, look at where they rank amongst the xG creation phases.
They’re virtually in the bottom of every category. They’re bottom in npxG, third to bottom in xPoints, and haven’t gotten the production they needed across their designated players. They’re also sitting low in G+ for. Overall, it hasn’t been a pretty season for new coach Robin Fraser.
-Arman
Montréal
15th place, 0-3-7, 3 points, 4 GF, 14 GA, -10 GD
Ah, CF Montréal: somehow not the worst team in MLS. They’ve yet to record a win, and yet, all but two of their games have been decided by a goal or less (and those multi goal losses came against Vancouver and Nashville). The team isn’t perfect, in fact, I don’t think they’re anywhere close to good. But the defense is not Montréal’s greatest weakness:
What is their greatest weakness, then? Let me put it this way: the whole point of this article was to apply the Where Goals Come From framework to MLS teams; the thing is, I don’t think Montréal knows where their goals are coming from. Here’s the shotmap for their only real attacking threat:
And here’s what their chance creation looks like:
Dismal and aimless.
-Sebastian
That’s all from us today, keep your eyes out for what Where Goals Come From has to say about the Western Conference later.