What “Where Goals Come From” Says about Your Team after MLS 2025 Week 10: Western Conference Edition
/If Where Goals Come From is new to you or you want a quick refresher of the key concepts, we put a quick overview into the Eastern Conference article.
…and that’s enough of an introduction for today. Let’s talk about the teams!
-Jamon
What “Where Goals Come From” Says About…
Vancouver
1st place, 7-2-1, 23 points, 20 GF, 7 GA, +13 GD
In MLS season play, the Whitecaps are coming off a 3-1 road win at Minnesota United and have been the talk of the league for several weeks now. They are also now in the CONCACAF Champions Cup final (albeit without Sebastian Berhalter’s help), courtesy of a 5-1 aggregate stomping, and a 3-1 away win, over Inter Miami. They are now five points clear of any other team in the West. From an analytical perspective, the reasons for this could be a full-length article by itself.
When the ‘Caps were up 3-0 on Sunday, I posted on BlueSky the following:
That might seem aggressive, and I want to be clear that I don’t think Vancouver will reach 2019 LAFC level (90 goals on ~85 xG) -- which I consider the WGCF Gold Standard in MLS from available data -- but the Whitecaps are the closest at this point of the season that I’ve seen since that LAFC team. What makes them even more special is they don’t have a single player at the level of a Carlos Vela. They even have a few key players out with injuries right now.
This feels like a great opportunity to explain the practicality of the Where Goals Come From concepts with some level of depth.
We are at 30% of the 2025 MLS season, so keep that in mind. 10 games is a good number for beginning predictions in MLS, such as they are. The simple math here is to multiply Vancouver’s shot, xG, and goal numbers by 3.4 (based on remaining games) to know approximately where models would predict them to be by the end of the season given their goals (20), xG (~21), and g+ (19.5) are all agreeing with each other. Their defensive metrics are in similar bands, too.
In WGCF, we look at two things separately: shots and shot quality. Most good attacking teams establish one or the other. Really elite attacking teams are either outliers on one or the other or do both well, which takes us back to my comparison with 2019 LAFC.
Vancouver is currently on track for 177 progressive pass shots, putting them in the vicinity of 2019 LAFC. The big differences here are:
1) The rate of Set Piece Pass shots is much higher for the ‘Caps,
2) Vancouver isn’t taking a lot of low-value Basic Pass shots (which is a good thing, as we’ll see soon), and
3) Vancouver has gotten only one penalty so far (and missed it) whereas 2019 LAFC had 11, converting nine.
The penalty difference is clearly going to be one of the reasons Vancouver won’t get to 90 goals or even 79 like Inter Miami did last year (with significant over-performance from Messi, Suarez, and Co). What is special about the 2019 LAFC team is that their numbers all matched up. With 85 xG, the five-goal over-performance was minor, and the numbers backed up how good they were. They created a lot of open play goals, just as the xG, PSxG, and g+ said they should. 46% of their goals and 43% of their xG came from the Progressive Pass category.
That’s what I see with Vancouver so far -- everything matches up. It’s not a Messi/Suarez-like over-performance or one-off season. Given Progressive Pass category shots and xG are an indication of a healthy attack, this looks very sustainable right now if they stay relatively injury free and don’t do anything to mess up their chemistry. 46% of their xG is in the Progressive Pass category so far.
One last key data point: as I’ve said before, Vancouver is shooting fewer Basic Pass shots that for most teams are low value. But not every Basic Pass shot Vancouver is taking is low value, as evidenced by their 0.1 xG per shot in this category. If received in front of goal with some space, the xG on these shots can be higher. So far, the Whitecaps are producing almost 16% conversion rates on these shots. That might be the least-sustainable part, but 0.1 xG/shot is a high number in that category. What I expect is that 16% will become something like 12% on Basic Pass and 15% on Progressive Pass will become 19%. These projected shifts should, in effect, cancel each other out by the end of the season allowing the Whitecaps to sustain this success.
GCR = Goal Conversion Rate
All this without mentioning their defense has been just as good. That’s a whole ‘nother article. There were already plenty of good reasons to pay attention to the Whitecaps. Now they are signaling they are likely to stay at the top of the West for a while.
- Jamon
Portland
2nd place, 5-3-2, 18 points, 20 GF, 15 GA, +5 GD
One thing is for certain: Portland looks very different Evander-less. That hasn’t stopped the goals from flowing, though; the Timbers sit second in the west and are tied with Vancouver and San Jose for most goals scored at 20. But… (Timbers fans, I’m going to hold your hand when I say this) there’s a big difference between the Vancouver Whitecaps and Portland Timbers in 2025. In fact, all signs suggest that the Timbers are objectively a worse offense this year than last, and I don’t think that should come as a surprise. Yes, they splashed $12 million on Kevin Kelsy and David Da Costa (Evander’s replacement), but they still lost the centerpiece of their squad and one of the best players in MLS. They haven’t shown it in the standings just yet, but the underlying numbers show a regression to the mean in this team’s near future.
The Timbers remain solid in individual play and are slightly above average in shots resulting from corner kicks and normal passes, but that’s about everything nice that can be said about this offense. The team has fallen off a cliff in terms of progressive passing: what was one of the best teams in crossing and in-behind balls has been reduced to irrelevancy in both categories. Look, overall, ~13.5 xG isn’t worst-case-scenario levels, but the drop-off from sustainable and promising patterns of play to overreliance on far-less valuable avenues is cause for major concern.
I wouldn’t be this down on Portland if it had a defense to fall back on, if-and-when this extreme over-performance peters out, but they’ve conceded the fifth-most xG in all of MLS, and even worse, the way in which they’re conceding it is downright atrocious.
-Sebastian
Austin
3rd place, 5-1-4, 16 points, 7 GF, 10 GA, -3 GD
Seeing a team with -3 GD in third place is pretty funny. The metrics on “what’s going on with Austin” may surprise you, as the team has the fifth-worst non-penalty GD-xGD at -.38 per match. Their xGD is .08 and instead, they are sitting at -0.30, with the bulk of it coming in the attack. Austin paid big-time money for forwards Brandon Vazquez and Myrto Uzuni this summer, but the two have struggled to get on the scoresheet. Per ASA, Vazquez has the fifth-lowest G-npxG number at -1.88. In fact, take a look at these two tables below:
Austin has a worse post-shot xG on their shots than xG, meaning that their shots have a higher probability of being goals before they shoot them? Shooting practice is needed because this is costing them points… at home. Austin’s non-penalty xGD (npxGD) at home is the fourth-highest in MLS, and they’ve recorded the second most points in the West at Q2 Stadium, even with the third-worst G-xG at home.
There’s a philosophy in MLS that some teams adhere to: win at home, draw away. Austin FC is flat out following this to a tee. Austin’s non-penalty xGF away is the fourth-lowest in MLS. You’d think that sacrifice would help defensively, but, nope, they are in the middle in that category as well. Their xGD away is the 10th-worst in MLS. I get that a huge chunk of that came from their huge loss against Vancouver, but Austin will need to be a bit more ambitious away from home, or they’ll have to be nearly perfect in the capital of Texas.
-Arman
Minnesota United
4rd place, 4-4-2, 16 points, 12 GF, 10 GA, +2 GD
Minnesota probably deserves to be higher than their record and goal differential might suggest. The Loons have scored seven less than their xG, and a good number of those shots are coming in promising areas and from good patterns-of-play. Tani Oluwaseyi has been playing lights out, but while his partner up top, Kelvin Yeboah, has four goals to his name, the Italian should have more:
The good news is that things will probably even out, and this team will only start putting more in the back of the net. The foundation is set, and improvement from fourth seems pretty certain. If you’re not convinced, consider this: Minnesota played Vancouver, the best team in the league, and not only did they match the Whitecaps’ xG, but they put up one great xG chance and three good ones. Sure, they conceded six good chances going the other way, but holding your own against this Vancouver team is nothing to scoff at.
-Sebastian
Colorado
5th place, 4-4-2, 16 points, 14 GF, 14 GA, 0 GD
Chris Armas is one of the more WGCF-friendly coaches in the league, knowing that he wants higher-percentage shots versus some long shots. The story of Colorado hasn’t really been their offensive side. It’s their defense, which has shown to be leaky this season. They sit last in xGA, allowing a plethora of chances through progressive passes.
The Rapids have been buoyed by Zack Steffen, who’s had an absolutely resurgent year. Prior to this season, Steffen’s numbers showed that he was an average keeper, and last year, he allowed 12 goals above expected. This year, he’s essentially prevented six goals, almost a complete reversal so far. He leads the league in that spot and has certainly earned himself into the super-early MVP conversation.
-Arman
FC Dallas
6th place, 4-3-3, 15 points, 14 GF, 14 GA, 0 GD
With FC Dallas, there were a lot of uncertainties coming into the season. High on that list was “how well would Petar Musa and Lucho Acosta work with each other?” and “could a defense that conceded 56 goals last season improve by 10 or more goals?”. The quick answers seem to be “mostly” and “probably”, respectively. Musa had 17 goals in 2024, and the offense had enough goals to be a playoff team with 54. Fast forward to 2025, and so far it appears both are taking a hit. Both offense and defense are on pace for 47 to 48 goals, and the xG is an indication that maybe both will get to 50.
That said, being around a 0 GD probably means FCD won’t hold onto the 6th spot, and might be looking at a play-in game as teams like LAFC and Seattle are likely to heat up. After that, it’s anyone’s guess if someone else shows up once the secondary transfer window hits.
Looking at their data, they have an edge in the Progressive Pass department, but they’ve got other problems. Paes has given up five rebounds for shots, three of which have gone in, leading to a nasty six goals against on 3.71 xGA on Individual Play. They’ve gotten lucky to only give up one goal on set pieces, as they are in the bottom 25% in xGA there.
If they can tighten things up, maybe they can hold onto 6th or 7th. Maybe.
-Jamon
San Diego
7th place, 4-2-4, 14 points, 16 GF, 15 GA, +1 GD
San Diego’s start to the season was a dream. Recently, they’ve fallen back down to earth, struggling away from home. San Diego’s npxGA is seventh worst in MLS at the moment. Their idea of defending was to own the ball. Unfortunately, in the recent weeks, teams are starting to understand how they play.
SD has allowed the most fast-break xG in MLS at 4.18. Teams can produce in those situations, as we saw vs. Charlotte and Colorado. Those transition moments can help make progressive passes, which San Diego is actually seeing a deficit in, relative to the other metrics.
If you’re going to get caught giving up xG, you really don’t want to be giving up progressive passes behind your back line. It’s not a recipe that can produce much success, especially if you’re an expansion side like San Diego is.
-Arman
LAFC
8th place, 4-2-4, 14 points, 15 GF, 16 GA, -1 GD
This is not your mother’s LAFC. The style of play from coach Steve Cherundolo has been different, with the team not playing as vertical as we’re used to. Their average vertical forward distance is the lowest its been since Cherundolo took over. They sit 11th in npxG and sit in a disappointing eighth place to start the year. Often, LAFC dominates at home; this year, that hasn’t been the case. Their xGD is 0.32 per match in these first 10 games. For reference, their number last year was 1.10.
You can see the differences in their home field performances. There’s been a lot more individual play moments, where 21% of goals occur on average. However, the progressive passes are tumbling relative to where they were in 2024. It’s nearly half of the total that it is, and it’s evident why LAFC haven’t been able to be the LAFC of old.
It isn’t helping that Denis Bouanga is performing below his expected values. He’s a prolific player who can raise his team through individual brilliance. But that isn’t always the most sustainable route of action, as seen below.
-Arman
Seattle
9th place, 3-4-3, 13 points, 13 GF, 12 GA, +1 GD
The Sounders are not the team that was promised during the offseason, and I don’t think that’s realistically going to change any time soon. The squad is filled with overlapping and unfortunately timed injuries, yes; the last three games have been much, much better, yes; there is still plenty of time for things to improve, yes; but this team is not going to be the Galacticos (and that’s okay).
The numbers aren’t bad: Seattle have the second-least xG conceded in the league (behind only Vancouver) and despite the different formations affecting the team’s chance creation, they’re still finding ways to create valuable shooting opportunities (read: cutbacks).
The main storyline up front has been Danny Musovski’s resurgence from afterthought to linchpin: he’s been the main target of those cutbacks and has done a pretty good job of finishing them. That’s not what I’d like to focus on, though. When digging through the stats, one thing popped out: the Sounders are terrible when they’re losing. In ~270 home game minutes (or almost three full 90s when accounting for stoppage time) where the Sounders have been behind by one or more goal, they’ve:
Failed to score a goal
Failed to generate a great or even good chance
Averaged 0.05 xG/shot
Most of their shots when behind come from slow buildup play, indicating that when faced with a compact defense holding onto a lead, the Sounders are clueless. You can’t hope to score first in every game (no matter how good your defense or offense are), so this is a major flaw in Seattle’s game plan that will need fixing if they want to keep putting tallies in the win column. Schmetzer has some work to do.
-Sebastian
Real Salt Lake
10th place, 4-0-6, 12 points, 11 GF, 15 GA, -4 GD
The biggest issue facing RSL is that they have the pieces to be good at soccer this season, but they just aren’t good at the things that produce winning soccer.
Sure, maybe they should have more goals, but they also should have given up even more. Opponents are better than them at four out of five categories of xG. They’ve taken 34 Basic Pass shots (avg of 0.03 xG/shot) and 39 Set Piece Pass shots (avg of 0.09 xG/shot), and scored exactly zero of them. That’s exactly why we don’t recommend building attacks around those areas as a primary plan of action: you are unpredictable at best and get nothing at worst.
With the fifth worst Expected Goal Differential in the league (-5.11 xGD), things are likely to get worse before they get better. If they even get better.
-Jamon
San Jose
11th place, 3-1-6, 10 points, 20 GF, 19 GA, +1 GD
You know, some teams are absolutely chaotic. Congrats, San Jose, you’re earning that title in this MLS season. San Jose leads MLS in npxGF. They’re also tied for second in the league in npxGA. Combine those two things, and you get absolute chaos. Bruce Arena has assembled some of the most prolific scorers in MLS history in Josef Martinez and Chicho Arango, with Cristian Espinoza to create one of the most fun attacks in the league. I mean, look at this, they’re going bar-for-bar with every team they’re playing, for better or for worse.
They’re creating above-average great xG shots, they’re creating above-average good xG shots, and their poor numbers are low. They’ve taken the most shots in the league and have allowed the second most. C’mon you’re telling me this team isn’t flat-out fun to watch? In a forgiving league where it’s more difficult to miss the playoffs than to make them, why not play like this?
-Arman
St. Louis
12th place, 2-4-4, 10 points, 7 GF, 8 GA, -1 GD
So far there has been a grand total of 6 goals scored by St. Louis players in 10 games! 6 goals!! It’s not like their xG is entirely gone — City are still finding ways to create high-quality chances — but when it comes down to it, they just can’t convert. For context, a typical Great xG shot is scored about half of the time (that number is based on over 125,000 shots over the last decade plus in MLS). St. Louis is scoring those types of shots 17% of the time — that’s an incredibly low figure even when compared to this season’s average conversion rate.
Cedric Teuchert was supposed to come in and fix things in the attack last summer, and while his production towards the end of last season was about as good as you could hope for a mid-year arrival, he has just two goals in nine games in 2025. Instead, the club have had to rely on players like Simon Becher, who leads the team in xG with 2.5. End product from the 25-year-old has been frustratingly inconsistent, though:
On the other side of things, STL have let in just eight, which sounds promising until you realize that they’ve also conceded over 16 xG. It all evens out in the end, I guess.
-Sebastian
Houston
13th place, 2-4-4, 10 points, 10 GF, 14 GA, -4 GD
Having been there in Miami in 2023 to see my original WGCF partner, Carlon Carpenter, and his club, the Houston Dynamo, win the US Open Cup, I can tell you that they do know where goals come from. At the moment, it’s really hard to tell that. Partially, it’s because the front office has been so slow to replace talent that has moved on, particularly Hector Herrera, which has resulted in a less-than-stellar start to the season. Given how Ben Olsen’s been handicapped, 10 points is not terrible.
So if any team can go from where they are at right now to a playoff spot, it’s Houston. On the post-shot xG (PSxG) front, they’ve been the victims of a shooting over-performance by their opponents by 2+ goals so far, in addition to a goal under-performance by themselves.
That’s unlikely to continue. They’ve now brought some talent to help get Olsen back to the way he wants to play, and at least it’s arrived ahead of the secondary window, giving them some time to fix it. That should boost both the xG and the post-shot xG from here.
There’s no guarantee things shift from here for the Dynamo, but based on the trend and a pretty solid defense, too, I see them moving ahead of some of the other teams above them by the 20-game mark.
-Jamon
Sporting KC
14th place, 2-1-7, 7 points, 16 GF, 21 GA, -5 GD
There’s a genuine chance that Sporting KC are worse than their record would suggest. They’ve created just two (2!) non-penalty Great xG chances, both of which were misses. In contrast, they’ve conceded 13. Youch. This is what really concerns me, though:
Relying on set pieces and penalties while entirely ignoring the Progressive Pass category is not a recipe for success. Look, there’s been some over/underperformance on both sides of the xG equation, but none of it has been particularly out of the ordinary. It’s a bad team and the numbers show that. Sorry, KC fans; I’ve got nothing to offer you.
-Sebastian
LA Galaxy
15th place, 0-3-7, 3 points, 8 GF, 20 GA, -12 GD
Riqui Puig can’t come back fast enough. There really isn’t much more to say than that. The Progressive Pass xG isn’t even all that bad. The bad news is that they’ve over-performed by two goals on the post-shot xG (PSxG) side, and they are still in last by four points 10 games in. They can’t over-perform much more in the most important aspect of the attack.
The defense is just bad everywhere, and that’s why they need Puig: to have more of the ball, so the opponent can’t score.
This is goals against and xG against. Lots of green and yellow color is bad. So until they can keep the other team from scoring at will (they are on track to give up 68 goals), nothing else matters, at least until Puig is back on the pitch.
-Jamon
That’s all for now, folks! If you like this, let us know, and we’ll do it again later this year.