2019 GAME-BY-GAME EXPECTED GOALS

Last Updated 4/16/2019

Note: Does not include own-goals. Dates in UTC. 

HG: Home Goals, HxGt: Home Expected Goals based on our team xG model, HxGp:, Home Expected Goals based on our player xG model, AG: Away Goals, AxGt: Away Expected Goals based on our team xG model, AxGp: Away Expected Goals based on our player xG model, xGDt: Expected Goal Differential based on our team xG model, xGDp: Expected Goal Differential based on our player xG model.

The difference between the models is that our player xG model was built to measure the players' production and the team xG model was built to measure a team's quality. In effect, there are only two differences:

  1. Penalty kicks are worth less in the team model. Because earning a PK is a relatively lucky occurrence that isn't necessarily indicative of a quality chance, they're valued at only about 0.248 xG for teams, but because a shooter scores them about 79% of the time, they're worth 0.785 xG for players.

  2. Sequential shots get their value diminished slightly in the team model. If a team has a shot worth 0.8 xG that is deflected out for another shot worth 0.8 xG, the team will get credit for 1.0 xG, not 1.8 xG (our exhaustive research shows only one goal can be scored per sequence). In the player model the full 0.8 xG is credited to both shooters.

So if you're looking to see which team created the better chances, then the xGt is probably more relevant. If you want to know which team had the better chances, then xGp is more useful. Here's Drew's much longer post about the differences.

DateHomeHGHxGtHxGpAwayAGAxGtAxGpGDxGDtxGDpFinal
04/15/2019Kansas City21.711.72New York21.011.0100.690.710
04/14/2019Colorado21.621.65DC United30.840.84-10.780.81-1
04/14/2019FC Dallas21.461.99Portland11.581.581-0.120.421
04/14/2019Los Angeles FC21.821.84FC Cincinnati01.151.1520.670.692
04/14/2019L.A. Galaxy21.201.74Philadelphia00.810.9020.390.842
04/14/2019New England00.720.72Atlanta United22.452.45-2-1.72-1.72-2
04/14/2019Salt Lake20.740.75Orlando City11.131.131-0.39-0.381
04/13/2019Chicago11.602.14Vancouver10.340.3401.261.800
04/13/2019Houston22.372.96San Jose10.910.9111.452.051
04/13/2019Minnesota United21.641.64New York City FC31.361.42-10.280.230
04/13/2019Montreal10.740.74Columbus01.041.041-0.29-0.291
04/13/2019Seattle31.211.21Toronto20.840.8410.370.371
04/10/2019DC United00.550.55Montreal00.660.670-0.11-0.120
04/07/2019FC Cincinnati11.702.25Kansas City11.801.830-0.100.420
04/07/2019Columbus10.640.64New England01.041.041-0.41-0.411
04/07/2019New York11.141.15Minnesota United20.991.06-10.150.09-1
04/07/2019Orlando City42.433.09Colorado31.421.4211.011.671
04/07/2019Philadelphia21.932.54FC Dallas10.210.2111.722.331
04/07/2019Seattle11.721.74Salt Lake01.261.3910.470.351
04/07/2019San Jose32.722.78Portland00.891.4331.831.353
04/06/2019DC United01.391.41Los Angeles FC42.403.11-4-1.00-1.70-4
04/06/2019New York City FC00.880.88Montreal00.190.1900.690.690
04/06/2019Toronto21.941.98Chicago21.351.3500.590.630
04/06/2019Vancouver01.031.57L.A. Galaxy21.341.34-2-0.310.22-2
04/01/2019L.A. Galaxy21.812.89Portland10.920.9210.891.971
03/31/2019Colorado11.812.36Houston21.421.43-10.390.93-3
03/31/2019Orlando City11.771.77DC United20.480.48-11.291.29-1
03/31/2019Salt Lake20.480.48FC Dallas41.681.68-2-1.20-1.20-2
03/31/2019Vancouver01.311.51Seattle01.261.2900.040.220
03/30/2019Chicago01.281.28New York00.380.3800.910.911
03/30/2019FC Cincinnati00.350.35Philadelphia21.711.71-2-1.36-1.36-2
03/30/2019Columbus21.642.36Atlanta United01.661.682-0.010.682
03/30/2019New England22.392.49Minnesota United11.502.0410.890.451
03/30/2019San Jose00.430.43Los Angeles FC53.393.39-5-2.96-2.96-5
03/30/2019Kansas City73.133.13Montreal11.171.1761.961.966
03/30/2019Toronto42.252.84New York City FC00.790.8141.472.034
03/24/2019Los Angeles FC21.331.34Salt Lake10.380.9210.950.421
03/24/2019New England02.192.21FC Cincinnati21.421.42-20.780.80-2
03/23/2019FC Dallas22.182.24Colorado11.601.6710.570.571
03/23/2019New York00.680.68Orlando City10.960.96-1-0.28-0.28-1
03/23/2019Philadelphia31.131.13Columbus00.820.8230.310.313
03/18/2019Colorado11.241.24Kansas City10.810.8100.440.440
03/17/2019Atlanta United11.241.24Philadelphia11.521.520-0.28-0.280
03/17/2019FC Cincinnati32.252.27Portland01.071.1231.181.153
03/17/2019DC United52.833.36Salt Lake00.550.5552.282.825
03/17/2019L.A. Galaxy32.362.90Minnesota United21.511.5610.851.341
03/17/2019New York City FC21.361.36Los Angeles FC21.922.470-0.56-1.100
03/17/2019Toronto32.042.04New England20.741.2811.310.771
03/16/2019Chicago23.383.44Seattle41.942.49-21.440.95-2
03/16/2019Columbus10.940.96FC Dallas00.560.5610.390.401
03/16/2019Houston33.023.56Vancouver20.621.1612.402.401
03/16/2019New York44.374.39San Jose10.770.7733.603.623
03/16/2019Orlando City11.501.50Montreal31.911.91-2-0.41-0.41-2
03/10/2019Atlanta United10.900.90FC Cincinnati10.650.6500.250.250
03/10/2019Los Angeles FC43.193.19Portland11.041.0432.152.153
03/10/2019New York City FC01.171.17DC United00.670.6700.500.500
03/10/2019Seattle22.402.55Colorado01.021.0221.391.532
03/10/2019San Jose01.221.22Minnesota United21.401.98-2-0.18-0.76-3
03/10/2019Kansas City12.172.86Philadelphia01.722.2710.440.592
03/09/2019Chicago11.051.05Orlando City10.130.1300.920.920
03/09/2019FC Dallas21.171.71L.A. Galaxy01.231.232-0.060.482
03/09/2019Houston21.371.45Montreal10.380.3810.991.071
03/09/2019New England00.891.42Columbus20.800.80-20.090.63-2
03/09/2019Salt Lake11.101.64Vancouver01.131.151-0.030.491
03/04/2019Los Angeles FC21.011.01Kansas City11.181.191-0.17-0.191
03/03/2019DC United22.002.07Atlanta United00.400.4021.601.672
03/03/2019L.A. Galaxy22.412.42Chicago11.371.3711.041.051
03/03/2019Seattle42.552.59FC Cincinnati10.490.4932.072.103
03/03/2019San Jose10.910.91Montreal21.331.33-1-0.42-0.42-1
03/02/2019Columbus11.501.50New York10.870.8700.640.630
03/02/2019Colorado32.032.16Portland23.183.851-1.15-1.700
03/02/2019FC Dallas10.740.74New England10.740.740-0.00-0.000
03/02/2019Houston10.580.58Salt Lake10.650.650-0.07-0.070
03/02/2019Orlando City21.631.68New York City FC21.321.3200.310.360
03/02/2019Philadelphia12.363.42Toronto31.231.77-21.131.65-2
03/02/2019Vancouver20.960.96Minnesota United31.421.96-1-0.46-1.00-1