2019 GAME-BY-GAME EXPECTED GOALS

Last Updated 6/4/2019

Note: Does not include own-goals. Dates in UTC. 

HG: Home Goals, HxGt: Home Expected Goals based on our team xG model, HxGp:, Home Expected Goals based on our player xG model, AG: Away Goals, AxGt: Away Expected Goals based on our team xG model, AxGp: Away Expected Goals based on our player xG model, xGDt: Expected Goal Differential based on our team xG model, xGDp: Expected Goal Differential based on our player xG model.

The difference between the models is that our player xG model was built to measure the players' production and the team xG model was built to measure a team's quality. In effect, there are only two differences:

  1. Penalty kicks are worth less in the team model. Because earning a PK is a relatively lucky occurrence that isn't necessarily indicative of a quality chance, they're valued at only about 0.248 xG for teams, but because a shooter scores them about 79% of the time, they're worth 0.785 xG for players.

  2. Sequential shots get their value diminished slightly in the team model. If a team has a shot worth 0.8 xG that is deflected out for another shot worth 0.8 xG, the team will get credit for 1.0 xG, not 1.8 xG (our exhaustive research shows only one goal can be scored per sequence). In the player model the full 0.8 xG is credited to both shooters.

So if you're looking to see which team created the better chances, then the xGt is probably more relevant. If you want to know which team had the better chances, then xGp is more useful. Here's Drew's much longer post about the differences.

DateHomeHGHxGtHxGpAwayAGAxGtAxGpGDxGDtxGDpFinalHxPtsAxPts
06/03/2019L.A. Galaxy11.721.73New England21.661.71-10.060.02-11.41.3
06/02/2019Columbus21.171.70New York City FC20.880.8800.290.8201.61.1
06/02/2019Colorado32.212.26FC Cincinnati11.161.1621.061.1022.10.7
06/02/2019DC United11.001.01San Jose11.861.890-0.86-0.8700.82.0
06/02/2019FC Dallas00.720.72Seattle10.200.20-10.520.5211.80.7
06/02/2019Houston11.301.33Kansas City10.230.2301.061.1002.30.4
06/02/2019Minnesota United22.592.70Philadelphia31.752.29-10.840.41-11.90.9
06/02/2019New York31.641.67Salt Lake00.460.4631.181.2142.30.5
06/02/2019Portland22.222.30Los Angeles FC31.881.88-10.340.41-11.61.1
06/01/2019Atlanta United21.021.02Chicago01.301.302-0.28-0.2821.11.6
06/01/2019Montreal01.101.10Orlando City31.291.83-3-0.19-0.73-31.21.5
06/01/2019Vancouver10.471.01Toronto10.580.580-0.110.4301.21.4
05/30/2019Atlanta United31.781.79Minnesota United01.081.2230.700.5731.90.9
05/30/2019DC United31.211.22Chicago32.993.110-1.78-1.8900.42.4
05/30/2019Montreal21.942.47Salt Lake11.121.1210.821.3512.00.7
05/30/2019Philadelphia13.633.63Colorado11.151.1602.482.4702.60.2
05/30/2019Kansas City00.950.98L.A. Galaxy21.101.10-2-0.14-0.12-21.21.5
05/27/2019Toronto11.611.61San Jose21.961.96-1-0.35-0.35-11.11.6
05/26/2019FC Cincinnati01.361.37New York21.041.04-20.330.33-21.71.1
05/26/2019Colorado31.381.42Columbus21.701.731-0.31-0.3111.11.6
05/26/2019Minnesota United11.221.23Houston01.181.2010.040.0411.41.3
05/26/2019New England11.151.15DC United12.172.710-1.02-1.5600.72.1
05/26/2019Philadelphia11.951.99Portland31.181.18-20.770.81-21.90.8
05/26/2019Kansas City31.471.47Seattle21.291.2910.180.1811.51.2
05/26/2019Vancouver20.650.65FC Dallas11.421.431-0.77-0.7710.82.0
05/25/2019Chicago11.431.43New York City FC10.880.8800.550.5501.90.8
05/25/2019Los Angeles FC43.373.41Montreal11.231.7732.141.6422.60.3
05/25/2019Orlando City01.492.03L.A. Galaxy10.600.60-10.891.43-12.10.6
05/25/2019Salt Lake21.121.12Atlanta United10.770.7710.350.3511.61.0
05/23/2019New York11.381.41Vancouver21.462.02-1-0.08-0.6101.31.5
05/20/2019FC Dallas10.680.68Los Angeles FC11.732.810-1.05-2.1200.62.2
05/20/2019L.A. Galaxy02.162.16Colorado12.692.79-1-0.53-0.63-11.11.8
05/19/2019Houston22.062.29DC United11.191.2510.871.0412.00.8
05/19/2019Minnesota United11.691.69Columbus00.160.1611.531.5312.60.2
05/19/2019New York10.690.69Atlanta United00.890.891-0.20-0.2111.11.5
05/19/2019Orlando City51.632.22FC Cincinnati10.670.6740.961.5542.10.6
05/19/2019Philadelphia01.511.51Seattle00.610.6600.900.8502.00.7
05/19/2019Kansas City11.081.17Vancouver10.760.7600.320.4101.61.0
05/18/2019Montreal01.131.13New England00.580.5800.550.5501.80.8
05/18/2019Salt Lake31.611.62Toronto00.650.6530.960.9732.10.7
05/18/2019San Jose42.872.88Chicago11.531.5331.341.3532.20.6
05/17/2019Los Angeles FC22.782.79FC Dallas00.600.6022.192.1922.70.2
05/16/2019Houston11.881.89Portland11.431.4300.450.4601.71.1
05/16/2019Seattle22.092.09Orlando City10.510.5111.591.5812.60.3
05/16/2019Toronto03.573.62DC United00.170.1703.393.4502.90.0
05/16/2019Vancouver00.410.41Atlanta United11.722.29-1-1.31-1.88-10.52.3
05/13/2019DC United11.171.19Kansas City00.930.9310.240.2611.61.1
05/12/2019Atlanta United10.930.93Orlando City01.661.661-0.73-0.7310.82.0
05/12/2019Chicago22.312.34Minnesota United00.390.3921.921.9522.80.1
05/12/2019Columbus00.450.45Los Angeles FC32.122.21-3-1.66-1.76-30.32.5
05/12/2019Colorado21.952.68Salt Lake32.072.69-1-0.12-0.01-11.31.5
05/12/2019New England31.542.08San Jose11.691.782-0.150.3021.21.5
05/12/2019Seattle11.311.31Houston01.381.381-0.07-0.0711.31.4
05/11/2019FC Cincinnati20.570.57Montreal11.361.361-0.80-0.8010.72.0
05/11/2019FC Dallas11.421.42New York30.820.83-20.600.60-21.80.9
05/11/2019L.A. Galaxy01.341.41New York City FC21.101.65-20.24-0.24-21.61.2
05/11/2019Toronto11.121.12Philadelphia10.660.6600.460.46-11.70.9
05/11/2019Vancouver10.960.97Portland01.591.601-0.64-0.6310.91.9
05/09/2019Atlanta United21.691.74Toronto00.750.7620.940.9822.10.6
05/09/2019Chicago53.213.23New England00.550.5552.652.6852.80.1
05/09/2019Columbus31.331.33L.A. Galaxy10.970.9920.360.3421.71.1
05/09/2019New York10.680.68Montreal20.881.44-1-0.21-0.76-11.11.5
05/06/2019Kansas City00.610.62Atlanta United31.511.53-3-0.90-0.91-30.62.1
05/05/2019DC United31.542.20Columbus00.700.7130.841.4922.00.7
05/05/2019Los Angeles FC02.833.82Chicago01.021.0201.812.8002.50.4
05/05/2019Minnesota United11.031.06Seattle11.201.200-0.17-0.1401.21.5
05/05/2019Philadelphia62.903.07New England12.833.3050.07-0.2351.41.4
05/05/2019Salt Lake11.181.72Portland20.450.47-10.731.25-12.00.7
05/05/2019San Jose10.600.60FC Cincinnati01.291.291-0.68-0.6810.81.9
05/04/2019Colorado21.522.60Vancouver31.501.51-10.021.09-11.31.4
05/04/2019Houston21.441.98FC Dallas11.701.721-0.260.2611.11.6
05/04/2019Montreal00.510.51New York City FC21.992.03-2-1.48-1.52-20.42.5
05/04/2019New York32.162.25L.A. Galaxy23.243.331-1.08-1.0810.82.0
05/04/2019Orlando City01.351.35Toronto20.920.92-20.440.44-21.71.0
05/02/2019Philadelphia22.392.48FC Cincinnati01.281.2821.121.2022.10.7
04/29/2019L.A. Galaxy21.681.68Salt Lake11.391.4110.290.2711.61.2
04/28/2019Houston22.352.39Columbus00.970.9721.391.4222.30.5
04/28/2019Minnesota United10.980.98DC United00.640.6410.340.3411.71.0
04/28/2019Montreal10.810.81Chicago01.041.461-0.23-0.6511.11.6
04/28/2019New York11.081.08FC Cincinnati00.540.5410.540.5411.80.9
04/28/2019Seattle10.260.26Los Angeles FC14.224.220-3.97-3.9700.03.0
04/28/2019Kansas City43.364.16New England42.854.0500.510.1101.71.1
04/27/2019Atlanta United11.501.50Colorado00.600.6010.900.9012.20.6
04/27/2019FC Dallas00.670.68San Jose00.950.980-0.28-0.3101.11.6
04/27/2019New York City FC11.311.35Orlando City10.550.5500.750.7902.00.7
04/27/2019Toronto11.211.26Portland21.071.07-10.140.19-11.51.2
04/27/2019Vancouver10.940.94Philadelphia10.730.7300.210.2101.51.1
04/25/2019Columbus01.341.35DC United11.171.18-10.170.17-11.51.3
04/25/2019Minnesota United01.251.25L.A. Galaxy00.410.4100.830.8302.10.6
04/25/2019New England00.820.82Montreal32.162.22-3-1.34-1.40-30.42.4
04/25/2019New York City FC10.961.50Chicago00.550.5510.420.9511.80.9
04/25/2019Seattle21.471.49San Jose21.611.610-0.14-0.1301.21.5
04/22/2019Los Angeles FC42.652.65Seattle10.310.3132.342.3432.80.1
04/21/2019Columbus11.201.24Portland31.411.42-2-0.20-0.17-21.21.5
04/21/2019DC United00.750.75New York City FC21.041.58-2-0.29-0.83-21.11.6
04/21/2019New England10.760.76New York00.950.951-0.19-0.1911.11.5
04/21/2019San Jose42.052.05Kansas City12.543.623-0.48-1.5631.11.7
04/20/2019Atlanta United12.122.65FC Dallas20.890.89-11.231.76-12.30.5
04/20/2019Chicago42.732.75Colorado10.920.9231.801.8232.60.3
04/20/2019FC Cincinnati01.201.26Salt Lake31.482.39-3-0.28-1.13-31.11.6
04/20/2019L.A. Galaxy21.782.32Houston11.151.6810.630.6311.81.0
04/20/2019Orlando City11.501.51Vancouver00.590.5910.900.9212.10.7
04/20/2019Philadelphia30.671.20Montreal00.480.4830.190.7331.61.1
04/20/2019Toronto42.342.38Minnesota United31.892.4710.46-0.0911.71.1
04/18/2019Vancouver10.750.76Los Angeles FC00.900.901-0.14-0.1411.21.4
04/15/2019Kansas City21.641.66New York20.980.9800.670.6801.90.9
04/14/2019Colorado21.551.58DC United30.810.81-10.740.77-11.90.8
04/14/2019FC Dallas21.411.94Portland11.521.521-0.110.4211.31.4
04/14/2019Los Angeles FC21.751.77FC Cincinnati01.111.1120.640.6621.80.9
04/14/2019L.A. Galaxy21.161.70Philadelphia00.790.8720.370.8321.71.0
04/14/2019New England00.700.70Atlanta United22.362.36-2-1.66-1.66-20.42.4
04/14/2019Salt Lake20.720.73Orlando City11.091.091-0.37-0.3611.01.7
04/13/2019Chicago11.542.08Vancouver10.320.3201.221.7602.40.4
04/13/2019Houston22.302.89San Jose10.880.8811.432.0112.40.5
04/13/2019Minnesota United21.591.59New York City FC31.311.37-10.280.2201.61.2
04/13/2019Montreal10.710.71Columbus01.001.001-0.29-0.2911.11.6
04/13/2019Seattle31.171.17Toronto20.810.8110.360.3611.61.0
04/10/2019DC United00.530.53Montreal00.630.640-0.10-0.1101.31.3
04/07/2019FC Cincinnati11.652.20Kansas City11.741.760-0.080.4401.31.4
04/07/2019Columbus10.610.61New England01.021.021-0.42-0.4210.81.8
04/07/2019New York11.081.10Minnesota United20.951.02-10.130.07-11.51.3
04/07/2019Orlando City42.353.00Colorado31.381.3810.981.6212.10.8
04/07/2019Philadelphia21.862.46FC Dallas10.200.2011.662.2612.60.3
04/07/2019Seattle11.671.69Salt Lake01.221.3510.450.3411.71.1
04/07/2019San Jose32.652.70Portland00.861.3931.791.3132.50.3
04/06/2019DC United01.341.36Los Angeles FC42.313.01-4-0.97-1.65-40.82.0
04/06/2019New York City FC00.850.85Montreal00.180.1800.670.6702.00.6
04/06/2019Toronto21.871.90Chicago21.321.3200.550.5901.81.0
04/06/2019Vancouver00.991.53L.A. Galaxy21.291.29-2-0.300.24-21.11.6
04/01/2019L.A. Galaxy21.762.83Portland10.900.9010.861.9312.10.7
03/31/2019Colorado11.752.29Houston21.371.37-10.380.92-31.61.1
03/31/2019Orlando City11.711.71DC United20.470.47-11.251.25-12.40.5
03/31/2019Salt Lake20.460.46FC Dallas41.641.64-2-1.18-1.18-20.42.4
03/31/2019Vancouver01.271.45Seattle01.211.2300.060.2201.41.2
03/30/2019Chicago01.241.24New York00.360.3600.880.8812.10.6
03/30/2019FC Cincinnati00.330.33Philadelphia21.641.65-2-1.31-1.31-20.42.4
03/30/2019Columbus21.602.31Atlanta United01.591.6220.010.6921.41.4
03/30/2019New England22.312.40Minnesota United11.451.9910.860.4211.90.8
03/30/2019San Jose00.410.41Los Angeles FC53.313.31-5-2.90-2.90-50.12.9
03/30/2019Kansas City73.043.05Montreal11.131.1361.911.9162.50.3
03/30/2019Toronto42.182.76New York City FC00.760.7841.421.9842.40.4
03/24/2019Los Angeles FC21.281.29Salt Lake10.370.9110.910.3812.10.6
03/24/2019New England02.112.13FC Cincinnati21.371.37-20.740.76-21.90.9
03/23/2019FC Dallas22.112.16Colorado11.571.6310.540.5311.81.0
03/23/2019New York00.650.65Orlando City10.930.93-1-0.28-0.28-11.01.7
03/23/2019Philadelphia31.081.08Columbus00.790.7930.290.2931.51.1
03/18/2019Colorado11.201.20Kansas City10.770.7700.430.4301.71.0
03/17/2019Atlanta United11.191.19Philadelphia11.471.470-0.28-0.2801.11.6
03/17/2019FC Cincinnati32.172.19Portland01.041.0831.141.1132.20.6
03/17/2019DC United52.743.27Salt Lake00.540.5452.202.7452.70.2
03/17/2019L.A. Galaxy32.292.83Minnesota United21.461.5110.831.3211.90.8
03/17/2019New York City FC21.311.31Los Angeles FC21.852.390-0.54-1.0801.01.8
03/17/2019Toronto31.991.99New England20.711.2511.280.7412.30.5
03/16/2019Chicago23.293.35Seattle41.882.42-21.410.92-22.20.6
03/16/2019Columbus10.910.93FC Dallas00.540.5410.380.3911.70.9
03/16/2019Houston32.933.47Vancouver20.601.1412.332.3312.70.2
03/16/2019New York44.264.28San Jose10.740.7433.523.5432.90.1
03/16/2019Orlando City11.461.46Montreal31.831.83-2-0.37-0.37-21.21.6
03/10/2019Atlanta United10.860.87FC Cincinnati10.630.6300.240.2401.51.1
03/10/2019Los Angeles FC43.113.11Portland10.991.0032.122.1232.60.2
03/10/2019New York City FC01.121.12DC United00.650.6500.470.4701.70.9
03/10/2019Seattle22.352.49Colorado00.980.9821.371.5122.30.5
03/10/2019San Jose01.171.17Minnesota United21.351.92-2-0.18-0.75-31.21.5
03/10/2019Kansas City12.102.78Philadelphia01.672.2110.430.5721.71.1
03/09/2019Chicago11.031.03Orlando City10.130.1300.900.9002.40.4
03/09/2019FC Dallas21.131.66L.A. Galaxy01.181.182-0.060.4821.31.4
03/09/2019Houston21.341.41Montreal10.360.3610.981.0512.30.5
03/09/2019New England00.851.39Columbus20.770.77-20.080.62-21.41.2
03/09/2019Salt Lake11.061.59Vancouver01.081.101-0.030.4911.41.4
03/04/2019Los Angeles FC20.960.96Kansas City11.151.161-0.19-0.2011.21.5
03/03/2019DC United21.921.99Atlanta United00.380.3821.541.6122.50.3
03/03/2019L.A. Galaxy22.342.35Chicago11.321.3211.021.0312.10.7
03/03/2019Seattle42.462.49FC Cincinnati10.470.4731.992.0332.60.2
03/03/2019San Jose10.870.87Montreal21.281.28-1-0.41-0.41-11.01.8
03/02/2019Columbus11.451.45New York10.830.8400.620.6201.90.9
03/02/2019Colorado31.982.10Portland23.073.731-1.09-1.6400.82.0
03/02/2019FC Dallas10.710.71New England10.720.720-0.01-0.0101.31.3
03/02/2019Houston10.560.56Salt Lake10.620.620-0.06-0.0601.21.3
03/02/2019Orlando City21.581.62New York City FC21.261.2600.320.3601.61.2
03/02/2019Philadelphia12.313.35Toronto31.191.73-21.111.62-22.10.6
03/02/2019Vancouver20.930.93Minnesota United31.371.91-1-0.44-0.98-11.01.7