Lowered Expectations

Lowered Expectations: What the Whitecaps are doing wrong and Vako is doing right by Harrison Crow

The premise of this column, for anyone new, is that we take the five highest valued shots from open play according to our expected goal model, and dissect the plays while talking about the players, the teams, and how our model works (or sometimes doesn’t). Sometimes I just yell into the wind about crossing.

 Let’s see what we’ve got.

Read More

Lowered Expectations: Shot Stopping and Model Design by Harrison Crow

Has it really already been a week? 

Well, if you’re at all familiar with this article you know what we’re about shots, shots, shots. It’s almost as if we starred in a LMFAO  video with Lil John 10 years ago and never quite got over it (we didn’t). The closer to the goal the shot is, the better. I know that sounds obvious but this is a very scientific process and is incredibly complicated

Thank god, we have this blog where we can unravel the deep seatedmysteries of expected goals and explain how we distill these goal scoring opportunities down into cold raw values which we’ve learned can now entirely explain the game of soccer.

Let’s get started.

Read More

Lowered Expectations: The International "Break" by Harrison Crow

I know that everyone is pretty wrapped up with the International Break and how awesome it has been for those in North America between Canada winning twice, Mexico looking like a world power, and the US ... well, two out of three isn’t bad right?

 But don’t forget we had Major League Soccer last weekend! So let’s talk about that and the happiness associated five missed golden opportunities, as we do every week. Let’s get it!

Read More

Lowered Expectations: Katai is Fired Up by Harrison Crow

You may or may not remember that I like to write about how shots from good locations don’t become goals. This was, once upon a time, a weekly feature here. Drew has begged me to come and start writing again, so here we are back again.

Those of you who may not be familiar with this column of mine, please, allow me to introduce to you the idea of expected goals. It’s the probability a given shot attempt would be scored, taking into account specific criteria captured at the time of the shot.

In this column we like to talk about what the expected goals model sees, and also what it doesn’t, when arriving with the xG number. The theme of this column is to take the five highest probability shots from open play (i.e. excluding free kicks and set pieces) of the previous week that didn’t end with the ball in the back of the net.

It also often turns into me decrying terrible crosses into the box that the model likes but are in actuality terrible chances that are awful and stupid and should be outlawed. Okay, well... let’s get started!

Read More

Lowered Expectations: Superman, Super miss? by Harrison Crow

Welcome to Lowered Expectations! Here we review some of the weekend’s best open-play shot attempts which did not quite live up to expectations. We break down the GIFs through the lens of our expected goal model and discuss each one evaluating both the results and the process.

Read More

Lowered Expectations: We're Back! by Harrison Crow

WELCOME BACK EVERYONE! It’s time for 2019 Lowered Expectations.

Welcome to Lowered Expectations, 2019 edition! Each week, we go about reviewing GIFs of the weekend’s best open-play shot attempts which did not quite live up to expectations (and rarely do we update this paragraph). We look at each one and not only evaluate the results, but also the process leading to them.

Read More

Lowered Expectations: Week 31 by Harrison Crow

Welcome to Lowered Expectations, week 29 edition! Each week, we go about posting chalkboards and GIFs of the weekend’s best open-play shot attempts which did not quite live up to expectations (and rarely do we update this paragraph). We look at each one and not only evaluate the results, but also the process leading to them.

Read More

Lowered Expectations: Week 29 by Harrison Crow

Welcome to Lowered Expectations, week 29 edition! Each week, we go about posting chalkboards and GIFs of the weekend’s best open-play shot attempts which did not quite live up to expectations (and rarely do we update this paragraph). We look at each one and not only evaluate the results, but also the process leading to them.

Read More

Lowered Expectations: Week 27 by Harrison Crow

Welcome to Lowered Expectations, week 27 edition! Each week, we go about posting chalkboards and GIFs of the weekend’s best open-play shot attempts which did not quite live up to expectations (and rarely do we update this paragraph). We look at each one and not only evaluate the results, but also the process leading to them.

Read More

Lowered Expectations: Week 26 by Harrison Crow

Welcome to Lowered Expectations, week 25 edition! Each week, we go about posting chalkboards and GIFs of the weekend’s best open-play shot attempts which did not quite live up to expectations (and rarely do we update this paragraph). We look at each one and not only evaluate the results, but also the process leading to them.

Read More