But, What About Dallas?

By Harrison Crow (@harrison_crow)

Tonight is the last of the conference semi-final matches with Dallas pitted against the Sounders in the Emerald City. It's not fair to The Hoops that many MLS supporters and pundits a like getting ahead of themselves with the assumed build for the conference finals in spotlight match up of LA versus Seattle III: the re-rematch. 

It obviously lends itself for--yet another--opportunity to compare Landon Donovan and Clint Dempsey. Which I know everyone loves to talk about. I'm even guilty of doing this myself, e-mailing friend of the site Sean Steffen about another 'LA-Seattle' like podcast (hopefully with much, much, better audio).

But that isn't to say that the bet isn't a reasonable gamble. Right now, our prediction has the Rave Green at a 69% favorite to take it over FC Dallas. It should highlight the fact that home field advantage push is a big deal. The only team to not come away with a positive position from the first leg of the playoffs was the Columbus Crew.  Outside of that every home team has either earned a draw or a win, including the play-in round.

That's not to say that it becomes a sure fire thing. Dallas has a lot of very good players that could make things relatively uncomfortable for their hosts. Blas Perez (12.32), Fabian Castilo (11.79) and rookie-of-the-year candidate Tesho Akindele (9.57) all combined for roughly 77% of Dallas' xGoals on the season. That doesn't include the likes of set piece specialist Michel (8.65) returning wunderkind Mauro Diaz (4.76) or the often forgotten designated player David Texeira (3.28). They have attacking weapons in an arsenal that is quick yet rugged.

A defense that is arguably as good as Seattle standing 1.37 expected goals against to the Sounders 1.20 that is built upon the rock (and team Captain) known as Matt Hedge. The crux of their issues, by and large, has been the goal keeping. While most would probably claim that it's been average it's what has ultimately been the difference between them and launching into the upper echelon of Major League Soccer.

Their defense has been, admittedly, spotty but according to our goal keeping metrics Raul Fernandez and Chris Seitz have performed below average. The two keepers combine for a -2 expected goals worse than what the average keeper might expect to stop. This considering the shots taken against them that were on target. Sometimes you can kind of point to the defense as being the reason for some of those goals being scored (i.e. Dan Kennedy, -11 goals worse than expected with an average shot leverage of almost .11) because if you keep giving attackers chances it's a case of when not if they start putting the goals away. However, this is not really the case as the defense as a whole allowed an average shot leverage of .0964 being launched their way. Which B-T-Dub is good for 4th best in MLS trailing (in order) the Whitecaps, Sounders and Galaxy.

Raul Ferenandez already had a big game in which he snubbed Obafemi Martins not once, but twice. The question for me is whether or not he can do it once more time. I can't imagine another scenario where the Sounders get 8 shots on goal and, considering their location, only score once. It's a dangerous game surrendering those types of looks to Dempsey and company expecting to come out on top.

However, with Seattle only picking up the one road goal, Dallas could conceivable just prepare to leave the game wide open with the attempt to run-and-gun with the Sounders. They have a fluid attack with crazy pace that has caused problems for the Rave Green this season. It's not as if Zach Scott or Leo Gonzalez are that quick and it helps explain why Seattle leads the league in attacks against (25%) their left flank.

Regardless of who comes out in front at the end of full time we can be certain that there will be goals. And considering the personnel on the pitch we can presume that there will be some fun and exciting moments too. Which, end the end, makes us all winners.

Analytics And Front Office Hirings

By Harrison Crow (@harrison_crow)

Yesterday, MLSsoccer.com ran a story about new Houston Dynamo General Manger Matt Jordan and his intent on building a so called ‘attacking and very diverse group’ next season. Darrell Lovell, the writer of the article, mentioned Jordan’s task implimentation would come by the way of introducing data analytics in the effort to shape the future of the roster.

Now, first off, none of Jordan’s actual comments speak to his this newfangled approach and while it’s exciting in theory the actual implementation and use of analytics can actually take years to fully implement in regards to the data infrastructure that would be needed to influence decision making.

I’m not saying that Jordan isn’t intending to bring analytics to Texas Street rather I’m pointing out that it’s purely a positional expectation that has been placed upon him and unlike the hiring of Andrew Opatkiewicz, Jordan has no past experience or body of evidence that we can point to as having used data to support his decisions.

Jordan’s education in marketing does lend some credence to the idea that he has some understanding of the advanced disciplines that would be required to make this work. But the reality is for analytics to work and be effectual, he’s going to need a department that has invested time and effort in not just producing data sets but time identifying and outlining what is meaningful, useful and productive information that is contextualized in the effort to add value to Jordan’s decision making.

Throwing the word analytics around is flashy, hip and cool. But teams such as the Sounders, Sporting, Red Bulls and Quakes have all invested money in different aspects and relations of analytics with varied results and time lines that limited their effectiveness. Which in turn have seen very smart (*cough* Rui Xu *cough*) individuals to leave their posts far too early.

The mentality behind people in front office positions is that they want to see results or an immediate return on investment. The problem is that there isn’t an exact formula to where you can say: “do this” and then “do that”—and presto! You’re going to have a good team or even a team that is ready to win the Supporters’ Shield.

Honestly, the bigger highering within MLS in this very short off-season—disregarding Opatkiewicz election in USL Pro—was the lesser trumpeted Pádraig Smith by the Colorado Rapids. Who comes to MLS by way of UEAF and then before that Ireland. A former director of finance he has actual experience of dealing/applying financial fair play rules and the constraints that come as a product of that in player acquisition.

Colorado announced that Smith’s position within the team will be on the technical staff as Sporting Director. The article on MLSsoccer further explored this role stating “With the Rapids, Smith will focus on data analytics and performance analysis as they pertain to player acquisitions and scouting from a team performance, player and opposition perspective. He will also oversee strategic planning and management of the soccer operations budget, salary cap and ensure that the club is in compliance with all player collective bargaining agreements and FIFA regulations.”

This isn’t necessarily any deep seeded proof. But just looking at other sports hiring’s such as in the NBA or in Major League Baseball with backgrounds that preclude much if any top-level experience but include computer and political science major, applied economics and general outside the box minded individuals has shown reasonable and positive results. You can point to such examples as Jon Daniels, Theo Epstein, Daryl Morey and *Sam Presti. All have strong track records and outside of Presti, have no pro or top division college experience within the sport.  

*Presti did play D-III ball, but his role was limited and there isn’t much real experience that is point back to that.

Comparing Smith to Jordan is much like comparing apples to oranges (Dynamo reference!) in that their two unique situations with different things in which they are accountable for and working within different constructs, seeking different solutions.

It’s fair to say that ownership and/or whomever are making hiring determinations and placing the roles and expectations on these positions within the front office are starting to place a premium on the involvement of data driven analysis within the decisions making paradigm. Which is great, however it’s by no means indicative of teams becoming smarter in game and roster evaluation or identifying artifices within the construct of the current CBA and player acquisition mechanisms.

All this really means is that teams are starting to seek out individuals that in their determination can find these loopholes and exploit them while they exist. A generation of capologists that has seemingly invaded other from most  So, maybe, Houston and Colorado are two teams that we should watch this year as they restructure their roster through what we can only speculate as potential bold moves in an attempt to find their way back to the MLS playoffs next season.

MLS Playoffs: Quarterfinals Leg 2 Probabilities

The series win probabilities have been posted on our projections page now, but it's worth explaining where they come from. The first thing to remember is that away goals are now the first tie-breaker after each home-and-home series, followed by the usual Extra Time, Coin Flips, and Most Chest Hair tie-breakers if needed. That plays a role in the probabilities!

NE: 97.0%

Playing at home with a 4 - 2 lead, New England is in the best position of any team. New England just needs to lose by no more than one goal. In fact, even if the Revs lose by two, they would win most plausible tie-breakers as Columbus would have to score at least four goals. 

NYRB: 88.5%

According to our model, New York is in the next-best position due to two primary factors. D.C. United has turned in very unimpressive xGoals tallies this season, and, of course, the Red Bulls hold a two-goal advantage.

SEA: 68.5%, LA: 64.5%

Though both top seeds out West tied on the road, Seattle gets a probabilistic edge over LA in that Seattle scored a goal in Frisco, while the Galaxy failed to score in Rio Tinto. Seattle would advance with a 0 - 0 draw, and play extra time with a 1 - 1 draw in regulation. But if LA draws, it must be a 0 - 0 draw to even get a chance to win in extra time or penalties.

27 Goals

By Harrison Crow (@harrison_crow)

We have a cool new little toy! You may have missed it, but a few weeks ago Matthias unveiled  historic expected goals. We use "historic" in a limited sense here - it only goes back to 2011 - but this is a big deal for multiple reasons.

The most applicable of those reasons right now is the ability to compare Chris Wondolowski's 2012 season to Bradley Wright-Phillips' in 2014. Unfortunately, since we don't have shot locations or even  most specifics for the league during prior to 2011, we are unable to compare these two seasons to Roy Lassiter's 27 goals back in 1996, so this post will be about comparing the two record-setting seasons we have data for.

Name	G	xG	G-xG	Sht	Avg Dist	Avail	UnAst Pct	Reb Pct	KeyP	Asst	xAsst	Cross Pct	Through Pct	xG + xA
Wondolowski	27	21.71	5.29	127	16.9	6.07	0.24	0.06	38	5	4.16	0.22	0.02	25.87
Wright-Phillips	27	22.85	4.15	109	14.9	6.24	0.17	0.03	19	1	2.35	0.28	0.15	25.20

While obviously similar, there are subtle but key differences. You can see that BWP earned more xGoals than Wondo, but Wondo was more involved in incorporating his teammates in the attack with almost twice as many xAssists than Wright-Phillips.

It is also interesting that Wondo had seven percent more Unassisted Shots and three percent more shots (twice as much) via rebounds. There could be a few explanations for this, but two seem to most fit what we already know - 1) that Wondo is a poacher, and makes the most of his opportunities, and 2) that much of Wright-Phillips' success can be attributed to playing alongside Thierry Henry.

Feeding into the latter theory, it is notable that BWP's shots came from a full two yards closer to the goal. Now there is a lot of inference that Henry created most of those shots either by his elite play making skills or by way of creating space. Our dear friend Matthias actually put out a friendly little stat about three weeks ago on this subject.

26 of @ThierryHenry's 72 key passes have been to @TheRealBWP. Next most is 10 to Lloyd Sam #funfact #MLS #NYRB @AnalysisEvolved

— Matthias Kullowatz (@MattyAnselmo) October 10, 2014

As of that tweet, 26 shots created by Henry accounted for 25.7% of the total shots taken by Bradley Wright-Phillips. It makes sense that while he did a lot to help Bradley become the prolific goal scorer that, he's not the only reason. No goal is a better example of BWP's ability to create his own shots than the goal that tied the record. Phillips has the ability to do things with the ball at his feet that Wondo does not. That control has lead to more opportunities in higher leverage situations.

One last point; it's interesting that neither lead the league in Goals Minus Expected Goals (G-xG). In the final table neither finished in the top-3, suggesting there was a bit of luck on their side, which is almost always the case when a goal (or 27 of them) is scored.

My point here is just to evaluate how both individuals created their total expected goals in the season in which they scored 27 for their teams. It's not necessarily about one being better than the other. Both performed great feats that should be acknowledged, and both did it in different and exciting ways.

I'm just grateful that we have a bit more information that allows us to give context, and lets us to understand more than what have in the past. That we can compare these two accomplishments and see how they are different using actual data - and not only our shoddy memories - is both an interesting and fun exercise.

The MVP Debate: Filtering Expected Goals vs. Game Winning Goals

by Harrison Crow (@Harrison_Crow)

Last year, if you even knew we existed then, you may have heard us mentioning Lee Nguyen for his quantitative key pass numbers. He produced a lot of key passes (51 total, 14th in MLS) and put himself on the map for people like me to watch for this season.

Well, as you know, this season he's been more than just an above average central creator for a good team. He's been someone that has gained dark horse consideration for the MVP as the MLS playoffs begin.

A lot of the conversation surrounding Nguyen centers on the fact that he has most "Game Winning Goals" in MLS with 8. Meaning he's directly responsible for a total of 24 additional points for his team, the New England Revolution. Well... okay, sure. To some degree he Nguyen has been very much influential to adding those "additional" points.

My problem with attributing those points solely to Nguyen is that it takes away from the rest of his mates who also had their hand in those matches. Winning by a single goal often involves more than  an outlier event. It's a transcendent performance that comes by more than a single event and a singular player but by a battle conducted by all 11 players against a fellow 11 players.

Sure, it's often a single players performance or instance that can turn the tide of a battle and help his team gain points. But if we all believe this is the case then we are only accounting for single goal states in our analysis? We should be taking into account both negative one AND even game states for goals.

Additionally, we all understand the propensity goals have to be flukey at times. We all have seen a team perform the best and be handed a draw or even a loss despite everything. Because of that it's best to look at shots and the leverage of which we could reasonably expect a goal to be scored in that situation. That's the whole premise behind expected goals.

Now, I've talked before about how I don't necessarily agree with the denotation of "game winning goal". I believe it conveys the wrong impression behind the intention and event. The stat is only awarded to players whose teams win by a single goal and given to player who scores that final goal that ends up being the difference. If a goal is scored in the fourth minute it's the same as scoring it in the 90th minute. Obviously that goal still was the determining factor in the match. But calling it a game winning goal implies a sense of heroic nature to the event.

Most of the time if I'm talking about a game winning events my mind goes to closing minutes or moments just before the games end. It's those closing seconds that we remember the most because it seems to have the most impact. Michael Jordan with the game winning shot, John Elway with the game winning drives and Roger Clemens big last moments.

If we want to strive to really account for these late match events and properly put them into context than what we should do is develop a filter for what events to take into account and when. This will give us a method of evaluating true difference makers at the end of matches. Looking at the things mentioned above, I've implied the need to account for three specific details: shots and their placement, the current score line of the event and time the event took place.

Using those three determining factors I put together a small list of total expected goal contributors with shots and their leverage occurring from the 80th min to the last. One specific item of note is that the data set includes penalty kicks because... well, I couldn't decide whether or not to include them.

1   Clint Dempsey   2.50
2   Sebastien Le Toux   2.26
3   Mike Magee  1.79
4   Fanendo Adi 1.71
5   Lee Nguyen  1.69

I could have given you all 300 individuals who had met the following condition but I scaled it down; way way down. Why did I limit this to five examples? Well, because this is about Lee Nguyen and since he rounded out the top-5 it made the perfect complimentary talking point. Also, I don't think I could have lived with myself had Juan Luis Anangono found his way into the top-10 (which he did).

Obviously, the narrative with Lee's MVP candidacy is that while he doesn't have the stats that compare quantitatively he has shouldered the loud when it counts to  be that difference maker at the end of matches. Seeing him on this list does play a bit to that thought. 

However, looking further down it you can see Obafemi Martins at 18 (1.33) followed even closer by Robbie Keane (1.59) and Bradley Wright-Phillips (1.49) at 8, 9 respectively. The question then becomes if that is enough to build a run towards the leagues most valuable player award?

This isn't suppose to be a biting article with the intention to take away from Nguyen's contributions. I'm a big fan of what he's done this season and the example he is for what talent teams can unearth if they are willing to invest some time and money in the domestic market.

This is about how you contextualize statistics and properly use them to convey meaning. If you were to give another top-10 ballot Nguyen would still not make it, and my awarding Wright-Phillips my vote earlier this month only seems to be justified at this point.

One match to rule them all, but which?

By Harrison Crow (@harrison_crow)

Note: you can find all projected game results in the '+Projections' tab. As noted by Matthias on the page certain percentages may not completely line-up with what might be '2014 Playoff/Shield Push' page. This is due to still using xGoals 2.0 on one page and our freshly minted 3.0 on the other.

It's not as if there are a lot of games left. Entering the final weekend there are a total of nine matches stretched across three days and eight possible play-off positions all in flux with one last seed to be decided between two clubs with all the answers to be had at the conclusion of Kansas City and New York, Sunday night, the last regular season match of the season.

It's easy for most pairs of eyes to wander to Saturday afternoon and the game that will determine the Supporter’s Shield winner. The LA Galaxy and Seattle Sounders FC show cased a fun and exciting match last Sunday that built upon the tension and expectations across the league and delivered upon all the hype. Our projection system has LA with the disadvantage needing an out and out win on the road in Century Link for a chance at the Supporter's Shield. They currently sit with a win projected at near 25%.

The game may have silverware implications but aside from that it’s arguably the least vital to the MLS Cup hopes of the club and it's supporters. As the season comes to a close either clubs will end up in first or second place with neither holding true a place of leverage in the playoff scheme.

If the afternoon is the least impacting, the evening match brings us the most over reaching match that could be the difference between having to play an extra match to reach the MLS Cup final for one team and, alternatively, could decide the playoff fate between another two. FC Dallas plays host to the Portland Timbers as they are hoping to leap frog RSL for the third spot and out of the play-in round. Portland is hoping for... well, anything to keep their playoff hopes alive. This match heavily favors ‘The Hoops’ with home win with a whopping 55% of the outcome.

Portland will need more than just a win against Dallas. The Rose City will be hoping their Cascadia rival, Vancouver, will drop points at home against Colorado later that night. The Whitecaps have the lead for the fifth spot with a point advantage where a win at home would clinch the fifth seed and a chance at Salt Lake or Dallas Wednesday or Thursday night. Vancouver is another high home favorite with 55% chance of a win and a 26% chance at a draw, which would indicate a very high chance that they will end up in their 2nd playoff berth in three seasons.

Out in the Eastern Conference the biggest matches come on Sunday with the first of two is between the newly rebooted Columbus Crew and the Philadelphia Union. Both of which are two of my favorite clubs out east and both for similar reasons (largely, their player acquisition and appraisal methods). It’s the only game this week that we have the road team with the favorable slant but, not by much. Our projection system is at a near three way tie (citing: hwin 30%, awin 39%, draw 31%) between the possible outcomes. It should be a fun match to watch and if nothing else it could build on to some excitement to the final match of the season.

Finally, Sporting has had an uncanny up and down season. One that doesn’t really represent what our numbers tend to believe about them. Those numbers still indicate them to be an elite, top tier club. While, in reality, we've seen them appear to be slipping further and further away from their once lofty perch atop the Eastern Conference. Time will only tell if this is because of bad luck or a change that has quite propagated to our seasonal numbers.

This weekend SKC will need either Columbus to lose or gain an equal amount of points to retain their third place position and a chance of avoiding a dangerous play-in game with the same New York Red Bulls they host Sunday. Again, our metric loves Kansas City, like, a lot. I’ve long said that I don’t trust KC at home as they’ve had a propensity for losing matches in preposterous sorts of ways.

Oh, and I hadn't noticed until now but there is a slight. Again, let me re-emphasize, a SLIGHT chance that through a comedy of errors that New York could still end up with that Third season surpassing both Columbus and Sporting both. Now we have that only at a 2% possibility but the fact is that it could still happen which makes this all the more entertaining.

There are a lot of really good games this weekend and while everyone is tuning into College Football or the NFL, there are games that really matter to a lot of fans and a lot of cities. It’s not just about one team winning an elusive trophy or another cementing their legacy in MLS history. Its about eight clubs holding onto their hats as the card deck gets shuffled one last time before the playoff deal and the start of the second season.

Expected Goals 3.0 is here!

You can check out all the updated Expected Goals stats that you're used to, but now they're based on more-detailed data, explained here

The new model thinks differently of Seattle, among other teams, so check out the team stats.

And Bradley Wright-Phillips gets really goods shots from closer to the goal than the six shot zones of version 2.0 could detect.

Bill Hamid remains king of the net, but Expected Goals 3.0 respects the work of Nick Rimando more so than version 2.0. 

Thinking about 60 points seasons

Since the start of the post shoot-out era (2000) there have been four different clubs to reach the 60 point plateau. Three of the four have done it twice. Having a look below you will see the list ordered by year with the total number of points earned  in parentheses.

-2005
  San Jose Earthquakes (64)

- 2011
  LA Galaxy (67)
  Seattle Sounders (63)

- 2012
  San Jose Earthquakes (66)
  Sporting Kansas City (63)

- 2014
  Seattle Sounders (60)
  LA Galaxy (60)

The point being is that when we talk about some of the best clubs assembled in modern MLS history we often refer back to those that have hit or surpassed the 60-point mark.

If you were to open the search up a bit wider and look for club that came close to that mark, with the intention of having just a bit of fun on this subject, there have been a total of eleven clubs, in the same time frame, that have come within a win of 60-points. Thus implying that they might be within the veil of consideration.

Those teams are:
Kansas City Wizards (57), 2000
Chicago Fire (57), 2000
New England Revolution (59), 2005
Columbus Crew (57), 2008
LA Galaxy (59), 2010
DC United (58), 2012
Real Salt Lake (57), 2012
New York Red Bulls (57), 2012
Chicago Fire (57), 2012
New York Red Bulls (59), 2013
Sporting Kansas City (58), 2013

As of today there is only one other club (DC United with 54 points) that with two games left have a chance to jump into the 60 point discussion. Now there is a possibility that happens but it is unlikely considering A) one of the game is on the road and B) they still allow buckets shots every match while still taking fewer than they give up. According to our shots data DC United doesn't have a recipe for long term success. Until they can out-shoot their opponents we'll continue to doubt them.

The real point of this all is just to bring a thought provoking question: which team of those listed above was truly the best? Personally I think the 2011 Galaxy have a good leg to stand on but the 2012 Sporting team was very, very good defensive club and I feel that sometimes gets under-appreciated. There are also the clubs of yesteryear that we forget about and/or can't quite quantify. Two examples are the 2005 San Jose Earthquakes/New England Revolution who were two VERY strong rosters with US Men's National team components. The other side of the coin is how much expansion has helped influence this achievement.

No team had earned more than 60 points until Real Salt Lake and Chivas USA were introduced into the league in 2005 and, previous to this season, no team had ever earned 60 points in a non-expansion season. So does that make some of those team accomplishment mean less, or at least weighted less impressive on the scale? Thinking to the last five seasons it has happened now five times with another seven clubs coming within a few points where prior to the 2010 season it happened once and only four clubs coming within a few points of the mark.

Maybe the 60 point mark means less now. It was once said that 60 points would assure you the Supporter Shield. But after the last five seasons the winners' average point total is above 62 points. Maybe the mark should be adjusted. With an expansion year on the horizon, is 70 out of the question?

These are all the questions in my mind and it's not to take away from the achievements of the clubs before us. Seattle and LA have both been very good this season. The Sounders are in the discussion of whether or not they're a "great team" and LA Galaxy have by far the best goal differential in league history. But the consistency with which teams continue to reach the 60 point mark may signal a new era where the number of points needed to win the Supporter's Shield continue to rise.

MLS Playoffs Outcomes and Probabilities

There remain many races for playoff positioning—Real Salt Lake and FC Dallas for the 3-seed, the entire Eastern Conference for every seed—so let’s break all that down. Based on each team's shot rates and finishing rates, we've created some charts that show which teams are likely to finish in which seeds, followed by a summary of outcomes for the key fifth-place and Supporters’ Shield battles.

Team	Playoffs1	Playoffs2	Playoffs3	Playoffs4	Playoffs5	Supporters1	Playoffs
DCU	0.983	0.015	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
NE	0.009	0.538	0.346	0.104	0.002	0.000	1.000
SKC	0.008	0.376	0.430	0.163	0.024	0.000	1.000
NYRB	0.000	0.060	0.139	0.407	0.394	0.000	1.000
CLB	0.000	0.011	0.083	0.326	0.569	0.000	0.990
TOR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.010	0.000	0.010

Team	Playoffs1	Playoffs2	Playoffs3	Playoffs4	Playoffs5	Supporters1	Playoffs
LA	0.504	0.496	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.504	1.000
SEA	0.496	0.504	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.496	1.000
RSL	0.000	0.000	0.691	0.309	0.000	0.000	1.000
FCD	0.000	0.000	0.309	0.672	0.019	0.000	1.000
VAN	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.019	0.686	0.000	0.705
POR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.295	0.000	0.295

The small differences between the probabilities in this chart and those on our Playoff Push page can be attrbuted to the 95% margin of error of up to one percent due to simulation randomness.

Western Conference Hot Races

For the fifth spot in the West, Portland’s only advantage is that it would almost surely hold the tiebreaker if it comes down to that. Both teams would finish with the same number of wins—the first tiebreaker—and Portland’s +7 goal differential is currently well ahead of Vancouver’s +1 for the second tiebreaker. That said, there are still more outcomes that favor Vancouver with its one-point lead and arguably easier schedule.

Vancouver gets the 5-seed if it…

…wins both, and FC Dallas doesn’t lose both its games.

…wins and draws, and Portland doesn’t win both its games.

…wins and loses, and Portland gets fewer than four points.

…draws both, and Portland doesn’t win either of its games.

…draws and loses, and Portland manages one draw at best.

…loses both, and Portland loses both.

Vancouver gets the 4-seed if it wins both, and FC Dallas loses both of its final games.

The Supporters’ Shield features two teams that are currently tied at 60 points apiece, and will also be playing a home-and-home series to end the season. Though Seattle holds the wins tiebreaker, our model likes LA better as a team.

Seattle wins the Supporters’ Shield if it…

…wins both games.

…wins and draws.

…wins and loses.

…draws both games.

Eastern Conference Hot Races

For the fifth spot in the East, Toronto FC needs a small miracle. Toronto will make the playoffs if it wins both its games, and if Columbus also loses both of its games. Though Toronto hosts its first game against one of the East’s weakest teams, Montreal, it still needs to beat New England on the road, and Columbus would have to lose to New York and Philadelphia. While each of those things is very possible by itself, it’s a real long shot for all of them to happen.

As for the number one seed out East, it's just about wrapped up. But here's how it shakes out.

D.C. United wins the East if it gets at least one point from its final two matches.

New England wins the East if it wins both its games and DCU loses both of its games.

Sporting Kansas City wins the East if it wins both its games, DCU loses both its games, New England doesn't win both its games, and Sporting scores two more goals than DCU over those two games. Sporting may not need to score those two extra goals if its goal differential beats DCU's by more than four over the final two games. Note that it's impossible for Sporting to win twice, DCU to lose twice, and for the resulting goal differential disparity to be less than four.

The Sounders' Quiet Move

By Harrison Crow (@Harrison_Crow)

When the Sounders unveiled their USL-Pro 'mini-me' club they did something no other team in MLS has yet done. No, no, don't you go rolling your eyes. I'm not talking about the proverbial ‘democracy in sports’ line and the fact that they allowed their supporters group to buy into their new franchise. I, personally, think that's pretty cool aspect of the new venture, but it’s not the subject we’re here to talk about.

Roughly a few months ago the Sounders hired Andrew Opatkiewicz to an unknown position which was kind of vague and just implied he would have a hand in setting up the new USL Pro club. Tuesday came with the announcement of his position, which was probably a lot larger than some had expected, being appointed as the General Manager of the S2. What makes this a big deal is if you do a quick rundown through MLS clubs you'll see that there is no front office decision making types without a baseline of professional or "elite" college level experience.

Well, there is one, so I guess I told a fib. The only other club to have someone in their front office without that experience was… well, the Sounders, when they "hired(?)" Adrian Hanauer.

Hanauer was a business savvy University of Washington grad who became a managing partner of the Sounders back in 2002. He was a minority owner and after being partnered with Joe Roth through Commissioner Don Garber match making abilities—when looking for financial investors prior to the Sounders entering into MLS in 2007—Hanauer took on the Management position that he had held at the USL level.

Beyond the simplicity of being a Sounders fan and him being the team GM, there is something that has long interested me about Hanauer; his background, decision methods and approach with the Sounders and even his past investments and projects. The hiring of Opatkiewicz on the periphery plays that up even more in what seems kind of a risky and odd move that could end up being looked back upon as shrewd and cunning.

So it begs the question, who the heck is Andrew D. Opatkiewicz? Well, how about the former VP of Strategic Partnerships within Intersport, former Associated VP of Strategic Development for STATS LLC, and lastly former Head of Business Development in Americas at Prozone Sports Ltd. He's also got a Masters from the University of Washington.

I have no earthly idea who he is as a person. I don't know how he thinks and I don't have any insight to how he plans on running the Sounders USL Pro franchise. But he has a photo from the Guster Album ‘Keep it together’ as his profile header on twitter and I feel like this speaks a lot about him. Also, he wrote this little pamphlet for the MIT Sloan Sports Conference concerning Salary Allocation Strategies in MLS which was all kinds of brilliant.

Overall this is a move that I've been waiting for the last few years. A team that is interested in finding someone that thinks outside the box. An individual that doesn't have the predisposition that comes with traditional hires.

This isn’t to say that Mr. Opatkiewicz has no idea what soccer is or that he has no traditional grounding in the game. His past work experience, as well as his work with the Seattle Wolves, speak to his involvement with the game through several different mediums.

While all these presented ideas and connections are not facts concerning how he operates or exactly how he thinks or even who he is as a person, I'd like to think they are indicators of what we might expect to hear about during his tenure. And while only indicators they are still indicators that might get a person hot and bothered just thinking about the possibilities of where this might lead. His inclination to be effective through data and experience, in times past, conveying the importance that data can bring to create effective analysis and whole picture concepts are something that has by and large been a topic ignored.

As a baseball fan, I spent years watching division rivals have smart management that put them in a better position as a whole. What Jon Daniels and Billy Beane did to find ways to compete from 2008-now has been annoying and, yet, wildly interesting. The idea that an MLS team is looking at people that have an outside the norm attitude and ideas in how teams are run and constructed in MLS is, yet again, super exciting.

Don’t get me wrong, Hanauer becoming the GM of the Sounders isn't the same thing as Opatkiewicz being hired to be the S2 GM this week. S2 is only an MLS affiliate and Opatkiewicz is only being hired to run an USL Pro team which isn’t ground breaking. But consider he is being given a voice as a decision maker on some level within the organization itself, his experiences and past positions now added to the fact that he has the ear of Adrian Hanauer are all interesting points and leads a person to sit back to wonder how this will all play out over the next few years.