Week 28 (Sept. 15 - Sept. 21) / by Drew Olsen

Philadelphia versus Seattle (Open Cup Final)

Since there is no chance of a draw, the model is not designed to tackle this game. However, thanks to some research by Nate Silver, we can approximate how much of the draw probability should go to each team. The model likes Seattle better in a vacuum, but the teams aren't playing in a vacuum (they wouldn't all fit!). Below are the adjusted probabilities for this knockout-style matchup.

PHI: 60%

SEA: 40%

The regular season probabilities can be found below for week 28:

Home Away hwin awin tie spread
RSL COL 0.608 0.157 0.236 0.82
POR VAN 0.303 0.436 0.261 -0.11
PHI HOU 0.545 0.221 0.234 0.62
MTL SJ 0.374 0.269 0.357 0.23
NYRB SEA 0.452 0.272 0.275 0.31
CLB NE 0.409 0.292 0.300 0.29
CHI DCU 0.435 0.224 0.340 0.40
LA FCD 0.572 0.203 0.225 0.67
TOR CHV 0.520 0.169 0.311 0.66

Notes

*The biggest surprise is probably Vancouver being favored on the road. Portland has been worst in the league this season in even gamestates at home, and that affects the model the most. 

*Despite the fact that xGoals 2.0 isn't too keen on RSL overall, its home xGD in even gamestates is up there with Seattle's for best in the league. This helps to explain why it has the largest probability of winning of any team this week.