MLS 2020 According to g+: The Overperforming, the Underperforming, and the Ugly, Part 2
/Mark Asher Goodman, @soccer_rabbi
Part 2
In part 1, we began the work of using Team g+ to see how closely teams are performing to what the numbers might tell us to expect. Now, in part 2, we begin to get into the numbers you’ve been raptly anticipating - the stuff that you can take to Vegas and possibly blow your next Coronavirus stimulus check on. Vegas likes numbers, but I’m not sure they’ve gone down the internet rabbit hole far enough to discover this website yet.
All data is from games played before October 16.
The Overperforming
Before we begin, I think it worthy to note that all six over-performing teams are also outperforming their expected goals numbers. No, that’s probably not a coincidence.
Columbus are a fundamentally fantastic soccer team - they do everything well, and they are super exciting to watch. Gyasi Zardes (10 goals) is hot on the heels of Diego Rossi (12 goals) to win the Golden Boot. Milton Valenzuela’s return from an ACL injury in 2019 has gone off without a hitch - he’s been fantastic at left back. The central midfield of Artur and Darlington Nagbe looks solid in both directions. But while through 17 games they were the 4th team in MLS in PPG, Columbus’ g+ differential is only 7th-best in the league. Interestingly, when I first ran the numbers two games ago, they had the best PPG in the league - and then they proceeded to lose to Cincinnati and Montreal, regressing closer to where we might expect them to be.
They aren’t *actually* this good. One big warning sign is their big DP signing, Lucas Zelarayan. The Mexican playmaker is fun to watch in short bursts - a roulette here, a nutmeg there. But if you key in on his mundane plays, you’ll see that he loses the ball, turns over the ball, or misplaces the ball at a high rate. His g+ of -1.69 is the worst on the Crew, and second-worst among all MLS midfielders. The numbers say that his passing and dribbling are specifically a problem. But he scores some pretty, pretty goals.
Columbus looks like they’re due for regression. The only reason they might not is that they’re overperforming on G-xG, with Zelerayan leading the way with 5 goals on an xG of just 1.81. If he and Zardes (10 G, 8.06 xG) keep burying all the chances, including the improbable ones, the Crew will persist, nevertheless.
As I said, only one team in MLS has a “g+ differential” that outperforms their actual goal differential more than Orlando City, and that team is the Philadelphia Union. “g+ differential” expects the Union to have outscored their opponents by a sum total of +1.92 goals, but their actual differential is a mind blowing +16 goals this year; their 35 goals in 18 games puts them in second place in the Supporters Shield race to Toronto. It might be due to an impressive combination of outperforming both their Expected Goals For and their Expected Goals Against. xG thinks they ought to have 23.15 goals for, but they have 32, and xG against thinks they ought to have conceded 21.84 goals, but they’ve let in just 16. Is it possible to explain this in any way other than with a big neon sign blinking ‘regression ahead’?
Well, Andre Blake is a top-12 goalkeeper in MLS this year in G-xG, with his -2.08 telling us that he’s part, but not all of the reason that the defense is better-than-expected. Another piece of that puzzle is 22-year-old homegrown centerback Mark McKenzie. McKenzie and Jack Elliott were good enough in 2019 that Philly locked them both in to play at CB and sold highly touted fellow homegrown Austin Trusty to Colorado for $600K in TAM and GAM. Without undo fanfare, McKenzie has rewarded that faith with excellent performance: he’s the best CB in Major League Soccer in ASA’s g+ for Interrupting. It passes the eye test too; the kid is a pure backline stopper.
On the offensive end, Anthony Fontana and Ilsinho have both put up more goals than xG would expect, but that doesn’t account for everything. Brendan Aaronson is an electric talent who is creating and finishing too (4G, 5A); Kacper Przybyłko (hats off to Philly sports writers - it took me four tries to get that last name right) has 7 goals and Sergio Santos has 4. When you watch them play, they’re very dangerous, they play with confidence, and they (cliche alert) give it 110% from whistle to whistle. Other than a season-opening 2-0 loss, Philadelphia have never been behind by more than one goal. Math says they’re overperforming, but I think Philadelphia’s success also (at least somewhat) reflects the fact that this team is really, really good.
FC Dallas are overperforming to the smallest degree of any team on this list - they’re 16th in the league in g+ added differential, but 10th in Points Per Game. I find them to be kinda ‘meh’ as a soccer team this year, befitting of an undistinguished mid-table place. This was a team built for Paxton Pomykal’s emergence as a first-tier MLS player. Then he went down with a hip injury, resulting in surgery that will have him out until March 2021, and the main man for Dallas became Michael Barrios, a lovely little player who at the age of 29 is having one of his best seasons, with a team-leading 1.60 g+ on the season, which includes positive numbers in every category except shooting. The rest of the team isn’t quite on that level, including primary central midfielders Tiago Santos, Andres Ricaurte, Tanner Tessman, and Jesus Ferreira, all of whom have a below-average g+. No matter how good your best player is, if the defense’s plan every week is “stop that guy,” and nobody else is a threat, eventually it’ll bite ya.
I’ve loved me some Orlando City SC,since the very first time I saw them in person as a USL team in the Open Cup in 2014 when they played the Colorado Rapids in the US Open Cup. They had the cool purple kits, and a midfielder named Kevin Molino who just scorched the pitch with every move. And I think they’re loads of fun to watch this season, with Chris Mueller and Nani creating havoc on the wings. But only one team in MLS has a wider gap between what g+ differential would expect a team to produce in terms of aggregate goals scored vs goals allowed (-0.12) and what its actual goal differential has been (+12). In particular, their Goals For is just waaaay higher than g+ thinks it should be. Stuff is going in that shouldn’t. Things average out in the long run. A microcosm of this is their recent match against Chicago Fire. Watch this video of Orlando’s match against Chicago on September 19, and you’ll see that Orlando’s first and fourth goals are the kind of thing a keeper ought to stop, but didn’t. I surmise there’s just too much of this on Orlando’s resume, and it’s not sustainable. With just six games left to play, they’re a virtual lock for the playoffs. But I just don’t buy that this offense can defy probability in each and every round of the playoffs.
G+ thinks that, on goal differential, Portland are -1.72 goals down to their opponents; in reality they have a positive goal differential of +8. Meanwhile, Seattle, who we described in part 1 of this series as “Performing as Expected - Good”, have a g+ differential of +12.03. The two teams are even on 30 points, and two of their four defeats are to Portland. Cue Robert Stack walking towards you on a dark and empty sound stage while low-quality early-90’s MIDI music plays, because there are more “Unsolved Mysteries” here. You might say to yourself, “Yeah, but Portland have been without Sebastian Blanco since September 11 - surely the regression to the mean has begun.” Not really! Portland are 5W-1L-1T since attacking winger Blanco went down with a torn ACL - 2.29 points per game, their best run of form all year. One possibility is that the unbalanced 2020 pandemic schedule is really helping Portland - somehow they’ve avoided playing Western Conference foes SKC and FC Dallas, the 3rd and 5th best teams in the WC on PPG, this year, while playing the woeful LA Galaxy three times, with one more game to go. I do think Portland are a very good soccer team, but I also think that the underlying math is probably right - they’re vulnerable, particularly in the playoffs where having a key offensive difference maker is important. Without Blanco, that means forwards Felipe Mora (7G, 1A; +0.85 g+) and Jeremy Ebobisse (7G, 2A; +0.56 g+) will need to keep it going full steam.
I don’t have strong MNUFC takes - g+ thinks they’re a below-average team - 18th out of 26 MLS in g+ differential - but their Win-Loss record has them at a more robust 12th place on 1.44 PPG, good enough for the 6th of 8 playoff spots in the West this season. Minnesota started off the year so well - they won their first three games, including their MLS is Back Tourney Group stage opener, and went on to put together a nice tournament run all the way to the semi-finals. Since then, it’s been mostly, as they say in Spanish, basura; 3W-5L-5T. They’re getting the vast majority of their scoring from midfielders, which I suppose is fine if your team is doing well. Since they aren’t, I think it’s worth raising as an issue; Kevin Molino has 7 goals, Robin Lod 5. Their strikers, meanwhile, have just 3 goals; Luis Amarilla has 2 and newcomer Kei Kamara has 1. There are a bunch of other concerns right now as well. Minnesota United had their last two games postponed due to positive Covid test results. Ethan Finlay is back after extended recovery from knee surgery, so it may be a little while before he’s up to speed. Osvaldo Alonso has missed some time with hamstring problems. The Loons traded away striker Mason Toye to Montreal; they now have the veteran Kamara to target with their crosses and do the holdup play, but Kamara’s qualities and style may not jibe with what Minnesota have been doing till now. The talent they have looks a little off-kilter or past its prime, and some of the other pieces, like fullback Chase Gaspar (-0.59 g+) and defensive midfielders Jan Gregus (-0.15 g+) and Hassani Dotson (-1.32 g+, the team’s lowest rated player) really aren’t getting it done.
That’s it for the overperformers. For the final installment next week, we look to the underperformers.