DC United Score Alain Rochart On The Cheap

Today, the Vancouver Whitecaps traded defender Alain Rochart, their starting left back, to DC United for a second-round selection in the 2015 MLS SuperDraft as well as an conditional pick in 2016. Vancouver gets a rough lottery ticket, a little bit of freed up cash and the United get a veteran defensive back.  It's not specified if Vancouver will still be on the hook for Rochart's salary, but considering the lack of return, for the basis of this work I'm going to assume that to be the case. The trade on the peripherals seems rather odd and strikes a few questions in my mind as to why this move was even made and what EXACTLY did each team acquire.

Looking at the Swede, Alain Rochat, DC United obviously get a guy who is average positionally in the league. He's not brilliant by any stretch of the imagination, but he's not bad at what he does. He's going to give you minutes; he's given the Whitecaps back-to-back seasons of nearly 2,500 minutes. While being able to provide minutes is great, the larger issue is the quality of those minutes. How does he compare to the rest of the league?

According to the site Whoscored.com they have him listed as the 9th best starting left back in MLS and is the 8th highest paid. So over all the price tag pretty much suits what  he costs, though the average cost of an outside back is roughly $100k.

Point Total	Team	Name	WhoScored Rating	Minutes	Wage
24	RSL	Chris Wingert	7.12	508	$160,000.00
11	Chicago	Gonzalo Segares	7.09	990	$155,000.00
20	LA	Todd Dunivant	7.12	608	$150,000.00
22	Portland	Michael Harrington	7	1159	$140,000.00
18	Seattle	Leo Gonzalez	7.47	882	$135,000.00
15	San Jose	Justin Morrow	6.8	1174	$130,000.00
25	New York	Roy Miller	7.07	877	$124,000.00
16	Vancouver	Alain Rochat	7.02	969	$120,000.00
11	Chivas	Wálter Vílchez	6.64	340	$117,000.00
22	Houston	Cory Ashe	6.91	1215	$101,000.00
5	DC United	Daniel Woolard	6.72	719	$100,000.00
22	Kansas City	Seth Sinovic	7.13	1270	$90,000.00
28	Dallas	Jair Benitez	6.83	1106	$90,000.00
19	New England	Chris Tierney	6.93	658	$82,000.00
26	Montreal	Jeb Brovsky	7.11	990	$80,000.00
14	Columbus	Tyson Wahl	6.88	1165	$76,000.00
8	Toronto	Ashtone Morgan	6.2	469	$60,000.00
8	Toronto	Logan Emory	6.7	238	$48,000.00
22	Philadelphia	Raymon Gaddis	6.88	1339	$47,000.00
20	Colorado	Chris Klute	7.42	956	$46,000.00

Interestingly enough, Rochart matches up pretty well with Portland Timbers left back Michael Harrington, who costs just a nudge more and is rated very similarly. Both possess the ball well and deliver smart short passes out of the back while neither are very strong at tackling.

This comparison is interesting simply because the Timbers acquired Harrington from Sporting Kansas City this past off-season. While the details of the deal aren't disclosed to the public, we know that it centered around allocation money and  a guess in the $75K range isn't crazy.

So we can say the going rate for which DC United paid for is roughly $75K in "specialized "cap space. That's on top of the money that is saved from moving the individual. DC United paid a draft pick, potentially two, depending on the circumstances--of which we have no idea. So let's just work with the understanding that they are only giving up a second round pick in two years.

This is a little tricky because of the fact that we don't necessarily know what overall pick DC United will be giving up. While this matters only for the sake of history and being able to create context based upon past experiences, it only minimally limits our understanding of the value of this pick.

In the 2013 Superdraft, a second-round pick's average contract was worth roughly 35K, and that's specifically for a young-ish sort of player that qualifies for the draft. While that potentially could be of some value, you can see players such as Chris Klute, Chris Tierney and Seth Sinovic as great examples, as it could lend itself to assisting to provide some roster flexibility. It's not nearly as lucrative as any type of allocation money.

DC United got a serviceable upgrade and helped solidify a back line that has had a gaping hole in it this past season, while paying nearly nothing for it. On the other hand, the Whitecaps presumably cleared 120,000 dollars off their roster and got a low-risk/medium-reward lottery ticket, and potentially two of them. However, they did this at the cost of downgrading one of their team's strengths.

I can't say that this was a bad move for the Vancouver, but it's an all-too-perplexing one for a team that is only sitting 4 points out of playoff position in the table. Kudos to DC United for making a cheap and smart purchase. At least they did something with their season.

Game Of The Week Review: Montreal Impact Visit Sporting Kansas City

I know I shouldn't be surprised by the Impact stealing a match on the road, especially considering Sporting's lack of strength at home as of their recent string of outcomes. Though, with all the statistical pointers, it's quiet uncanny that they came up with even a point, let alone all three.

It's hard to look at the tackles, interceptions and clearances and not think that it's a by product of the Impact largely being on their heels for the majority of the match. That in large part is due to the style which the Montreal Impact implements. The team as a whole has functioned with 48% possession through 12 matches and even less possession (44%) in away games. It's not a bad thing, but it naturally produces more defensive events.

Much of our discussion during the podcasts has dealt with shots and their predictive nature. Montreal has been at the forefront of the discussion, with amazing results despite being outshot on both total attempts at goal (12 to 15 per game) and actual shots on target (4.9 to 5.2) Montreal Impact is currently now sporting 26 points with a goal differential of +7. Not to mention they are boasting the highest conversion rate in the league of 15.3%. Better than the next highest (FC Dallas, 13.9%) by nearly a whole point and a half.

Matthias, Drew and I have discussed whether or not Montreal can continue to maintain such a high finishing rate. It's a legitimate question considering the construct of the situation but, as pointed out by Ravi Ramineni in a discussion this morning on twitter, ‏the problem with making such assertions is that we're looking purely at the shot totals rather than looking at the qualitative state of the shot.

However, while it's interesting enough to question whether or not the Impact are going to stick around and continue to score goals at their current rate, I'm going to leave that for another day. It's even more interesting that Kansas City came up with twice the amount of attempts on goal and the only scored once. That one goal was on a foul that was made right on the line of the 18 yard box. Had the linesman not been on his game, that call could have easily been a free kick.

The question that I really have is more of why was Sporting unable to build upon their chances. Looking at the amount of clearances that the Impact had  I kind of wondered if the fact was that they just couldn't maintain the needed pressure upon Troy Perkins goal.

Kansas City Attempts	Name	Minutes
FIRST HALF
Miss	Joseph Peterson	6'
Attempted blocked	Paulo Nagamura	19'
Miss	Claudio Bieler	25'
Miss	Claudio Bieler	42'
Goal	Claudio Bieler	49'
SECOND HALF
Miss	Seth Sinovic	49'
Miss	Claudio Bieler	56'
Miss	Kei Kamara	60'
Attempted Save	Benny Feilhaber	65'
Miss	Aurélien Collin	69'
Attempted Save	Paulo Nagamura	70'
Miss	Paulo Nagamura	71'
Attempted blocked	Claudio Bieler	76'
Miss	C.J.Sapong	78'
Attempted Save	Joseph Peterson	82'
Attempted Save	Aurélien Collin	85'
Miss	Joseph Peterson	90'
Attempted Save	Claudio Bieler	92'
Miss	Kei Kamara	94'

Looking at this you can see three real bunches. First at the 69th-71st minute, Again with the 76th and 78th minute and then in the final moments game a solid run of 90 to 94, ending with Kei Kamra's shot that just drifted wide.

Ultimately, I'm more inclined to believe that Sporting did just as much to not earn a result as the Impact did to really earn one. But while most people would be willing to chalk this game up to luck, I just think it's the largest example of what the Impact do well, and that's disrupting opposing teams while allowing the Impact to sit in their own defensive third. I'm still not inclined, as I'm sure Matty isn't either, to give the Impact the full rights of being a team that is "for real". But they certainly continue to prove their case week in and week out.

ASA Podcast - Episode 8: The One Where Drew is in the Hallway

Welcome, to American Soccer Analysis. After a week off we pick up today with an episode about various soccer events over the course of the past week, Western Conference standings, and our traditional Review/Preview of the LA Galaxy drumming of Seattle, and then tonight's game with Sporting facing off at home against Montreal. All this during an episode in which Drew heads to his hallway in search of a better connection to his internet, when all it really needed was a hug. [audio http://americansocceranalysis.files.wordpress.com/2013/06/asa-episode-8-randomness-western-conference-talk-and-review-preview.mp3]

Finding Numbers: WhoScored And Their Expanding American Statistics

I've stated that one of the goals for this site is the production of numbers, but also generally using them as book markers to bits of information. I haven't been too good about this second part but I'm going to try to get better. One thing that was pointed out to me this last week (h/t Brian Stern) was that WhoScored has at long last increased the information that they provide on MLS. We've had a link to WhoScored for sometime but generally speaking they haven't been very good about keeping the information updated, keeping it accurate or producing anything worth visiting it on a consistent basis. But the fact that they have some basic visuals and do have good content for most of the rest of the world makes it a worthy site. There was also the hope that they would finally find the time to spend on the American-based league.

Well, now they have and it's pretty awesome.

For instance; if I wanted to know who averages the most passes for the San Jose Earthquakes, I could go in real quickly and see that Sam Cronin averages 45.2 passes per game, almost a whole 8 above the trailer Ramiro Corrales (37.9), and that Cronin has completed 475 of 633 passes. The only thing at this point in time that could be better is for it to give a spray chart of where he likes to pass and to whom.

I could see that, according to the stats, Philadelphia has yet to score purely on a counter attack and seems to favor carrying the ball down the right side of the pitch, as they use that side 37% of the time. Alternatively we can see that DC United has taken 65% of its shots from the middle of the pitch. But mostly what it does is it allows us to do is put things in context.

Is it unusual that Houston attempts short passes 80% of the time, or is that normal? Well I can see that DC United and the Columbus Crew make short passes at 78%, but short passes make up 82% of the Montreal Impact's pass attempts. There isn't a wrong or right amount of short passes, but it does help us understand the specific influence of the style and attack.

You may or may not have already seen WhoScored and you may or may not have seen that they updated their American side site. That's cool. This is for those that didn't hear. We're trying to make it easier for people to conduct their own analysis and do so in the most educated way possible.

As a side note it looks like they further plan to expand the information they provide on the US Leagues as they have NASL section dated later on this year, probably anticipated for the second half of their season. That could further help us when attempting to gather information on some of the US Open Cup teams and some of the lesser known players who don't have an opportunity to have their name shine.

GAME OF THE WEEK: Los Angeles VS. Seattle

Since the weekend was filled with barbecues, families, and time away from the pseudo grind of the world, we decided to skip out on our weekly podcast. But we all love our "Game of the Week" contest so much that we decided to still preview tonight’s game of the week between Seattle and LA. This is what we do for you, America. This is our service.

DREW:

The LA Galaxy are playing a soccer game? ESPN, you know what to do... broadcast it at a time when everyone East of Utah will be asleep! After last week's Galaxy v Red Bulls snoozefest took 89 minutes for anything to happen, ESPN has decided to go double or nothing and show the slumping Galaxy against a Seattle team on a roll. It has largely been because Lamar Neagle (no, seriously) has either found out how to use those neon jerseys to blind defenders, or finally decided he's an MLS quality striker. After Seattle started the season unable to score goals, the Sounders are now getting them in bunches. Or as I like to put it: they're regressing to the mean with a vengeance!

As for the Galaxy, their dependence on Juninho was exposed last week after a hard tackle from his namesake forced him to leave the game early. Los Angeles never got back into sync with him off the field, and New York dominated the rest of the game. As of this writing, his status is still up in the air, but If the Galaxy are going to keep Ozzie Alonso in check they'll need Juninho to keep him occupied. Should Garcia (or anyone else) get the start in Juninho's place, then Alonso will get more forward than he otherwise would, freeing up Neagle, Martins, and family to attack the net. Couple that with the fact that Carlo Cudicini has looked as good in goal this season as Jimmy Nielsen looks in jorts, and the Galaxy could be in for a hurtin'.

All that said, the Galaxy have been very solid at home this season, and the Fishing Village to the North have found their scoring touch at home, but still struggle to get goals on the road. My prediction: if Juninho plays, the Galaxy will pull this out 2-1. If not, it will be a 1-1 draw.

MATTHIAS:

The Sounders have come on strong recently, recording 13 points in their last five matches. I checked for a recent dip in Seattle's strength of schedule, but there was no such dip to be found. Seattle has played three of those last five matches on the road, including a win on the road in Kansas City and a win at home over Dallas.

The Sounders' win at Colorado shouldn't be overlooked either. I will be coming out with a strength of schedule index soon, but my beta version* suggests that the Rapids have played the toughest schedule to this point (along with New England). That's not to mention that, as the away team, Seattle was giving up an estimated third-of-a-goal in an uphill battle. Impressive stuff.

But after saying all those wonderful things about Seattle, my three points this week go to the Galaxy in a one-goal victory. Though the Sounders find themselves second in the tables in goal differential, they are second to the Galaxy. Though the Sounders have an impressive 1.21 Shots-on-goal Ratio, the Galaxy have outdone them again at 1.37. Though the Sounders' strength of schedule has been difficult recently, over the course of the season it's the Galaxy that have faced seemingly tougher opponents. The final nail in the coffin is that the game will be played in Los Angeles, and that third-of-a-goal advantage will lie with the Galaxy. LA drew more than 20,000 fans to its last home match on May 5th, and you can bet they'll show up for the red hot Sounders.

 

*Strength of schedule is currently based on opponents' goal differentials and shots-on-goal ratios.

HARRISON:

I write a lot about the Sounders over the course of the week so let me make this simple. They were taking shots; at first they weren't going in and then, recently, they started all going in. Somewhere in between these two truths lies the median of this organization. They aren't as good or as lucky as what they've been in cumulatively over the past 2 1/2 weeks. But they certainly weren't as bad as what they were to start the season. It's a bit difficult to gauge the true talent level of this squad because of how frequent these parts are moving about.

Unfortunately, for the Sounders, Ozzie Alonso is suffering from a groin strain that will probably prevent him from making an appearance and Steve Zakuani is still not able to go this weekend. Which will force the Sounders to work with an inopportune 18 and even a less-conducive starting XI. This isn't something new to them this year, but I imagine that it's still going to be tough for them to deal with due to how Los Angeles works the ball through the middle of the field with Marcelo Sarvas.

However, the Galaxy are also dealing with injuries to their central midfield---specifically with Juninho who, as Drew mentioned above, was taken out ironically enough by a rough tackle from New York's opposing Juninho. Los Angeles uses an assortment of means to move the ball up the pitch. They average more shots than their opponents, more possessions and longer ones by the standard of TFS. Despite that, they've managed an impressive 17 points in 11 games and are still considered one of the more unlucky teams in all the league.

Adding to their attack the athletic Robbie Rogers and a Landon Donovan---who has something to prove to Jurgen Klinsmann---and all of a sudden you have a club that is very dangerous and probably one of the better ones in the league. Add that to the likelihood of the Sounders shot-to-goal ratio coming back to earth and the absence of Ozzie Alonso, and you end up with a very likely Galaxy win at home. I don't think it's going to be anywhere a long the lines of the Sounders defeat from the playoffs, but a 2-1 victory wouldn't surprise me.

----

Current Standings (as best as I can remember them):

Drew 0 - 3 ; Prediction: LA (if Juninho plays)

Matthias 2 - 3 ; Prediction: LA

Harrison 1 - 4 ; Prediction: LA

Game of the Week: (A Rather Late) #LAGvsNYRB Review

We've talked quite a bit about game states on the blog over the last few weeks, both linking certain articles as well as talking about it on the podcast. The ability to take specific events and associate context with them to provide a better understanding of the match results is helpful. However, there are times when I think Game States need to be refined based upon the situation. Take for instance our "game of the week" selection, New York Red Bulls at home against the potent Los Angeles Galaxy. There is a lot I could say about leaving Mike Magee behind in LA and losing Juninho just 10 minutes into the match. Attempting to use the typical goal game state doesn't really work simply because of the lone goal was scored at the 91 minute mark.

If we were looking at this in a season long context and we wanted to see how good a team was in the "even goal state," or maybe how long they played in an even goal state, 90+ minutes of data this match would go towards that game state and presumably help speak to each team's ability. The problem is that on an individual game basis sometimes there is a need for another way to really apply context to this game.

Naturally, with the injury to Juninho the first thought is to apply game states to substitutions rather than goals. The problem with that---omitting Juninho's substitution---is that substitutions take place in bunches in the second at the end of the game. It's becomes difficult to separate where exactly there was a specific difference maker.

So I kind of abandoned the thought of single game states in this scenario and instead looked more for another pattern.

Above is a bit from the MLS site chalkboard. Events on the timeline have been taken from each team, and each has a corresponding event associated with it on the map of the pitch. I specifically used offensive-associated filters to help give me an idea of the effectiveness of each team and how often it was involved.

The specific filters used were: Through balls, Crosses (both successful and unsuccessful), Key Passes, Shots on target, shots off target and lastly, blocked shots. These are all decisively aggressive methods that appreciate a teams ability to drive towards the opposing goal. I'm not exactly sure what to make of all it, there are almost distinctive time blocks that belong to each team as they would hold the ball and look for their own attempts on goal.

You can see that each team had a couple of chances in the last 10 minutes and it came down to a bit of luck in the circumstances of the lone goal. The timeline itself looks almost like heart beat rhythm between each team and their respective attempts towards the opposing goal. This is kind of the pattern I was looking to find, but I don't exactly know what to do with it.

In summation of the actual game, you could make some Carlos Cudicini references---see: Matthew Doyle for snark---and put a nice little bow on it. Yes, I do agree that LA's Italian keeper should have come out of his goal to clear the attempt, but I happen to also think that this single game came down to a rather random occurrence. A simple mistake from a goal keeper who has been in residence at some prestigious clubs.

The league average team finishes a shot roughly once every 10 attempts. The New York Red Bulls scored on what was their 10th attempt at goal. While LA was stuck at 9. I know it's not popular but I believe that sometimes it's not necessarily about strategy or anything deep tactically. Instead, maybe it's about fighting for 90 minutes, putting up as many (good) shots as possible and hoping one of them goes in. That sounds a bit Charles Reepish... I know, but sometimes it's true. Sometimes the ball just finds its way into the back of the net.

Humans make mistakes and even the best goal keepers do, too.

ASA Episode 7: Adventures in Babysitting, US Open Cup, The Value of Coaches And Chafing In Houston

Here is episode 7, all ready to go. If you ever have any questions, suggestions or general comments use the text boxes below. [audio http://americansocceranalysis.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/asa-episode-7-us-open-cup-mls-coaches-and-review-preview.mp3]

ASA Podcast: Episode VI

Everyone, here we are with American Soccer Analysis Podcast Episode 6! We talk about Juan Agudelo, shots and finishing (skill vs. "luck"), grass pitches vs. artificial turf, Kei Kamara and his return to KC, and then some about bowel movements. LISTEN NOW!!! [audio http://americansocceranalysis.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/asa-episode-6-a-treatise-on-turf-kamara-and-bowel-movements.mp3]

Possession Confusion

Consider every conversation ever had about soccer tactics. I would bet 99.9% of them touched on one specific subject: possession. Whether it’s the men’s league team you play for, or the club team you cheer for, isn’t more possession always a good thing? I can’t answer that question confidently, but I will explore it. The first obstacle to analyzing and discussing possession in MLS is the data itself. We get our data from Opta, and this is what Opta defines as possession:

During the game, the passes for each team are totaled up, and then each team's total is divided by the game total to produce a percentage figure which shows the percentage of the game that each team has accrued in possession of the ball.

“Possession” in Opta’s data is thus a measure of the proportion of completed passes in a match for each team, not a proportion of time. A lot of short, quick passes will accrue possession for a team that may only have the ball for a matter of seconds. This isn’t necessarily bad or good. It is what it is, and we’ll work with it.

Not all passes are created equally---or better put, not all teams' passes average out to be equally effective---but for a moment let’s suppose that they are. It’s hard to gather data on the value of each pass, and hard to then weight teams’ passes accordingly. So let’s just stick with the assumption that all teams' passes are equally effective. Perhaps someday we can sit around drinking beer and punching holes in that assumption. Today is not that day.

Under that assumption of equal passes, a team that completes a higher proportion of passes than its opponent will likely have strung together effective buildup more often than its opponent. Having created more effective build up, that team will likely have earned more scoring opportunities than its opponent. Having earned more scoring opportunities than its opponent, that team will be more likely to score goals and nab points. So this sort of possession should really imply sunshine and rainbows for the participating team. Seems like fair logic to me, but of course, I’m the one writing.

Looking at the tables—tables that were created with Opta’s version of possession, remember—we don’t see a strong correlation between possession and results. Four of the top five teams (by points per match) have 50% possession or less, but overall there is still a weakly positive correlation. We start to get significant results when we assess the correlations between teams’ possession and Attempt Ratios (0.60*), and again with Shots on Goal Ratios (0.55*). Those positive correlations imply that more possession coincides with more scoring chances. Of course, there is not nececelery a causal link.

Let’s take a look at this from another perspective. If we look at the relationships game-by-game—rather than team-by-team—the correlation between possession and scoring chances is still positive. The team that possesses the ball for a majority of passes (Opta’s definition) during any given match also tends to earn more scoring attempts than its opponent.

So far I’ve bored you with support for conventional wisdom: possession coincides with more scoring opportunities, and thus probably with better results.

But then I control for a few variables and shit goes haywire.

When I control for each individual team and whether or not they were playing at home, the relationship between possession and results is decidedly negative. In fact, a team that possesses the ball an additional 10% in any given match is expected to lose half of a goal on average, equivalent to about half of a point. For example’s sake, consider the Seattle Flounders Sounders. Over Seattle’s top four matches in terms of possession, it has earned just one point. However, during Seattle’s bottom four matches in terms of possession, it has earned eight points. Seattle is an extreme case, but a good example of what my model is picking up. Most teams individually seem to do worse when their possession is higher.

So more possession seems to correlate with more shots, and more shots seems to correlate with more goals, but for some reason more possession does not share a significant relationship with more goals. There is some missing information screwing with me, and I don’t have a definitive explanation for this strange paradox, but I will share a theory.

Each team has a style. Whether or not that style works is probably mostly a product of how well the players fit in, and how good those players are in the first place. Perhaps, in general, a style that focuses more on stringing short passes together tends to produce more shots than a high-risk/high-reward style, but this type of possession is not a necessary condition for success. Once each team develops its style, a certain amount of possession is required to optimize that style. For Montreal, it may be 49% possession, and for Portland, it might be 57%. This would explain the mild positive correlations between possession and shots across teams.

But why is it that, across games, more possession seems to correspond to less goals and worse results?

In a given game, if a team generates more possession—more passing by Opta’s definition—then perhaps that is indicative more of the opponent’s defense than of the desire of the team in question to possess. In other words, an excellent defense may not necessarily kill possession, but rather, push possession to less dangerous parts of the pitch. In this way, more possession is simply indicative of a frustrated team, not a team in control doing what it wants to do.

Without being able to conclude this thought exercise satisfyingly, I will propose a few things. First, that by charting each shot’s point of origin, we can begin to assess the quality of a team’s shots. And second, that possession data should be gathered from the distinct areas on the pitch. Possession in the attacking third is likely more valuable than possession in the defensive third. Some combination of these two measurements could very well help to explain the paradox we’re seeing with passing possession and team success.

*A perfect positive correlation would be 1.0.

New England Revolution acquires Juan Agudelo: What does that mean?

First things first before I make fun of the Revolution (and I will).  Their defense has been---excluding the New York outlier---borderline elite this season. That's possibly one of the few reasons they're still afloat and maybe the only reason to watch them (sorry, Lee Nguyen).

Tempo-free soccer has the Revs ranked 6th in dAG (defensive attempts on goals), which is how many times an opposing team has made any attempt at their goal. Add to that that we have them ranked 2nd (6.2%) in Opposing Finishing%, which is how often a team's opponents successfully convert attempts into actual goals. They're better than every team outside of Montreal in that category.

This has all culminated in only 6 goals allowed in 9 games. Something that would be overlooked if it wasn't for their horrible attack and the need for at least some positive mention.

But now the Revs have added the young (former starlett?) Juan Agudelo, someone who saw time with the US National team only 6 months ago in Russia and didn't look awful by any stretch. To be fair, he's someone that has actually come out looking very strong for Chivas earlier this season, but he's been hampered the last few weeks with hamstring issues.

It was thought that he had mended a brewing off-season situation between himself and Chivas USA head coach, El Chelis. But of late, Chelis has given a lot of credit to his now former striker. He told MLSSoccer:

"I didn’t know what I had in Agudelo, but by having him, what I asked for doesn’t matter because Agudelo is a model. He is the natural on this team. He’s a player that has many technical qualities. He’s very involved in working to improve others."

And now he's shipped off to the greater Boston area and we are with out the full detail of the acquisition being yet to be vented  in exchange the Goats received allocation money. The spice of life and magic dust that no one talks about and everyone wants. Of course for us this isn't about the details at this point.

What Juan Agudelo will bring is spectacular things and then all together frustrating things. He averages about 16 shots on goal per 1500 minutes, a number he has yet to reach in either of his stops in Chivas or New York. A team averages a goal on 9.4% of its attempts this season, and 26.9% of its shots on goal. Using that, there's a possibility that he adds a few additional goals to the line-up. Assuming he is just average at finishing.

That said Agudelo has beat the average ratio over his 3,000 minutes, scoring 11 goals in 36 shots on goal (30.6%). Scoring goals is a skill, and though we don't know how much is luck vs. his ability, I think it's very possible that he will continue to beat the league average conversion rates.

Looking at Chris Wondolowski, Kenny Cooper and Álvaro Saborío--the top 3 scorers for 2012--they all combined to beat the league average by scoring a goal on 43.9% of their shots on target. So, we can safely attribute scoring goals on shots on target as being a skill, the only problem is trying to account for luck. That's a little difficult at this stage, and so for now, we'll just mention it.

But assuming that Agudelo is consistent and continues scoring at a high rate and matches 1500 minutes. I have him for about 6 goals this season. Right now considering their goal conversion and their already abysmal offense, the Revs are on pace for 36 goals total to end the season. Considering their ability to suppress their opponent's talent and ability to score goals I have them for 26 goals allowed, assuming they continue their defensive supremacy.

Using SoccerMetricsPythagorean this comes out at about 51 points... given the asinine goal difference. Add in the additional 6 goals that Juan Agudelo brings and that brings them to a total of 56. Basically almost a full point for each goal.

Now, I'm not about to say that the Revolution have a shot at 60 points, not in your life. But in the last 3 years the only teams to have a plus goal differential AND not make the playoffs were 2011 Chicago Fire and the 2010 Kansas City Wizards. Considering a team-wide return to a league-average ability to score goals AND adding Juan Agudelo, it's very possible that New England just moved themselves within striking distance for the 4th or 5th spot in the East.

Columbus and Philly, beware.