As you probably know, we've been projecting the MLS playoffs after each round of games. Using a bivariate Poisson model, we simulate goal scoring based off our expected goals model. Given that goals are an essential ingredient for emulating soccer's two-legged system, this has proven quite important, and the conference finals are no different.
Read MoreThere are a multitude of tactical questions facing each remaining team in the MLS Cup Playoffs. Can New York's retooled wing-backs be relied on to defend capably? Can the Crew maintain a consistent attack with Federico Higuain's inconsistent performances? Can anything be done to stop Dallas' attack through Mauro Diaz and Fabian Castillo? And how will suspensions affect Portland's midfield? I'll examine each of these questions and provide a tactical preview of of the Conference Finals below.
Read MoreWorld Cup qualifying review: USMNT rebounds in opening weekend
The USMNT opened World Cup qualification for Russia with two solid, if unspectacular performances. They started with their easiest match of this round with a 6-1 home win over St. Vincent and the Grenadines. The second match was the most challenging, a road game against Trinidad and Tobago, and resulted in a 0-0 draw. The goalless result in a non-friendly was the first for the United States since their World Cup game against Germany last summer, a run of nine games. It was their seventh clean sheet overall in that same time.
Isn’t it great when the numbers are on your side? When they are sure to make your case quickly, because one thing for certain is that those numbers will be different next season? As the first MLS semifinal weekend approaches, an examination of the wages paid by the final four teams has parity parrots talking. Both the New York Red Bulls and FC Dallas sit at the bottom of the league payroll but are at the top of the league in results and hosting the second leg of the semifinals. The payroll underdog story makes all fans feel good. But should it?
Read MoreAs the majority of us know, Major League Soccer has taken tremendous strides to improve the game over the past decade or so. There has been a strong drive to bring in aging stars such as David Beckham (31 years old), David Villa (32 years old), Thierry Henry (33 years old), and Kaka (32 years old). The premise of this strategy is that these stars, who are slightly past their prime, will be able to improve the fan base and the overall appeal of Major League Soccer. The majority of these players are attacking superstars, mainly because for fans, the most exciting part of the game always occurs in the scoring of goals. However games are not necessarily won by scoring a ton of goals, but rather (to loosely quote Louis Van Gaal) to “score one more goal than your opponent.”
Read MoreThe finalists have been announced! We’re down to three goalkeepers that are all quality players in their own right. Bill Hamid. Luis Robles. David Ousted. You know the names or else you wouldn’t be reading this. All three have led their team to playoffs and have just a little time left to show who should become the 2015 Audi Cup MLS Audi Goalkeeper of the Audi Year [sic]. But don’t take my word for it, let’s hear what each of the nominees have to say for themselves. Here at ASA, we’ve obtained quotes from each of the goalkeepers that may or may not actually be from the goalkeepers themselves.
Read MoreNow that're through the first round and leg-one of the quarterfinals of the MLS Playoffs, we just want to remind you about our projections for each subsequent round. The odds you see of teams advancing through the semis take into account the leg one results. The "Change" column tells how much the most recent actual result (i.e. the leg-one results) has altered the model's projection for each club's likelihood of winning MLS Cup 2015.
Throughout the playoffs, you can find our model's predictions under the "Projections" tab in the upper right. We're updating them the day after each round of games.
Read MoreBy Matthias Kullowatz (@mattyanselmo)
In preparation for the beginning of the MLS Playoffs on Wednesday, we're rolling out projections for each subsequent round. Throughout the playoffs, you can find them under the "Projections" tab in the upper right. First, let's take a look at what our simulation spit out, and then I'll explain what the simulation was thinking.
| Team | Quarters | Semis | Finals | Cup Winners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYRB | 1.000 | 0.672 | 0.445 | 0.326 |
| CLB | 1.000 | 0.511 | 0.197 | 0.130 |
| MTL | 0.632 | 0.331 | 0.139 | 0.089 |
| VAN | 1.000 | 0.554 | 0.288 | 0.089 |
| FCD | 1.000 | 0.526 | 0.270 | 0.082 |
| NE | 0.496 | 0.211 | 0.099 | 0.064 |
| TOR | 0.368 | 0.145 | 0.082 | 0.051 |
| LA | 0.429 | 0.227 | 0.126 | 0.043 |
| POR | 0.591 | 0.257 | 0.117 | 0.039 |
| SEA | 0.571 | 0.242 | 0.106 | 0.033 |
| SKC | 0.409 | 0.195 | 0.092 | 0.028 |
| DCU | 0.504 | 0.130 | 0.037 | 0.026 |
The simulation is designed to follow the new MLS Playoffs format. Two-legged series, which occur in the conference semifinals and finals, are modeled using simulated scores from a bivariate Poisson model. This allows us to both precisely project outcomes, and to update the probabilities after game one of such a series. 50,000 iterations of the MLS Cup Playoffs are run, and the outcomes from those iterations are summarized to produce the projections you see above.
It should come as no surprise that the Red Bulls are far and away the most probable team to win the Cup. They have dominated our power rankings for weeks, and their 32.6% chances at winning the cup line up very closely with what we gave 2014's favorite LA Galaxy (33.4%) and 2013's favorite Sporting KC (30.2%). New York led the league in both actual goals scored and expected goals scored, and the model has found that goal scoring is more predictive of future success than goal allowing. This is why they have topped our power rankings for so long.
It should also come as no surprise that D.C. United received our worst probability of winning the Cup. Despite home-field advantage, DCU is only given 50.4% chances of beating New England in their play-in game. DCU's expected goal differential is bad, and their actual goal differential is surprisingly bad. They are the only playoff team with a negative xGD, and the only playoff team with a negative GD. In other words, even if you don't subscribe to how xGoals handles DCU, actual goals doesn't like them either.
I think seeing Columbus and Montreal with the next-best chances of winning the Cup is a bit confusing at first, but it actually makes perfect sense. If either of those teams has to face NYRB, they will do so in a two-legged series where home-field advantage is largely stripped away. On the other coast, whichever Western Conference team makes the final has a good chance (44.5%) of playing in New York in that one-game championship. Essentially, when and how you play New York largely determines your probability of winning the Cup.
Speaking of home-field advantage, we account for it with two processes. First, the model knows who's playing at home, and adjusts outputs accordingly. That has been true with our Playoff Push all season. Second, the two-legged series are set up such that if teams tie on goals, and on away goals, they will play two 15-minute overtime periods followed by penalty kicks if necessary. Additionally, that will only happen on the higher seed's turf. Our simulation determines if such an aggregate-tie occurs, and then indirectly gives the home team (also the higher-seeded team) a slight advantage in extra time. We regress the home team's 90-minute probability of winning, conditional on not-tying, halfway back toward 50%. This is an approximation to what FiveThirtyEight has done with extra time, where the better teams are still given advantages in what is not a 50-50 outcome.
Anyway, enjoy the playoffs! And check back for updated projections.
Thanks to Drew's work this week on playoff scenarios, enumerating many of the scenarios that would lead to a potential repeat of this is now a simpler task. One interesting note I discovered working through these scenarios: there is only one scenario related to Seattle and Portland in which today's goal differential might matter. If San Jose ties, and Seattle loses by at least three goals, then San Jose could take Seattle's seed. Otherwise, no goal differential today, no matter how lopsided, can determine the fate of Seattle or Portland.*
Here are the results that would lead to a Timbers-Sounders one-game playoff.
Read MoreWith both conferences so tight, there are some pretty wacky playoff scenarios floating around. Check out our game projections if you want to see what our model is predicting. In an effort to make it easy for everyone to figure out what each result means and to avoid having to do a lot of math while the games are progressing on Sunday, I came up with this spreadsheet. Just plug in the score to the games below, and the final conference standings will appear, down to the first few tiebreakers. The playoff matchups will fill in below.
Hopefully you will find this handy while you're in the middle of watching multiple games at once on Sunday, and throughout the playoffs.
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