Philadelphia Union: Postseason Preview
/2019 REVIEW
Philadelphia is a city that seems to adorn itself with the pageantry of blue-collar work. The philosophy of determination and deep city grit is a sort of tattoo etched upon the marrow of its teams’ legacy through the years. The Flyers, Phillies, and Eagles all have that reputation, and the city’s adopted mascot/avatar is named “Gritty” for a very good reason. This year’s Union side maybe the iteration that most embodies that most core Philadelphian philosophy.
You sometimes might hear a coach says talk about their system or style of play and they say something like “we want the team to be the star”. There is no other team in this playoff pool that embodies this theme greater than the Philadelphia Union. They’ve been built through almost every available acquisition method in the MLS GM handbook.
Over the past two seasons, the Union has consistently shown they knew how to build on their success, getting better and then again better. But instead of more of the same, they came into 2019 with a plan to shake up their tactics and adding starting-caliber pieces to the roster, giving the team a rather paradoxical approach in their first year under new Sporting Director Ernest Tanner. They shifted into becoming a high press team and yet would still start individuals like Marco Fabian and Haris Medunjanin.
Yet they worked it out and found a way to leverage the tactics into being one of the best teams in Major League Soccer posting an organizational high in total points (55) and their highest ever expected goal differential (7.5). They found a way to turn valued assets such as Ilsinho into a huge game-changer late in games and continued to show a willingness to grow young internal talent in Brenden Aaronson. Under the radar pick-ups in Kacper Przybylko, Jamiro Monteiro and Kai Wagner also proved to become huge vital parts to the team.
It’s easy to miss the subtlety in the transformation undergone in Tanner's first year and the continued growth of Curtin as a tactician. The Union are going to give every team they face handfuls of trouble.
TEAM STATISTICS:
Possession: 52.1% (7th in MLS)
Passes Per Game: 524.3 (7th in MLS)
Open Play xGoals For: 50.2 (6th in MLS)
Open Play xGoals Against: 42.7 (14th in MLS)
Don’t advertise this but “analytics” doesn’t really hate grit or even the idea of grit. Our data and numbers also don’t hate the Union which are really... full of grit. Not just that “try hard” grit either. It’s the dirty ferociousness. It’s the “we can’t be broken, but we’ll take a punch and then get up and punch you back” street fight approach in their tactics, and it’s fun as hell.
But “fun as hell” doesn’t really make a lot of sense when you’re pouring through data trying to figure out if the approach is sustainable. What makes this gritty and high flying approach sustainable? Well--they create chances. Actually, a lot of really good chances.
They like, and maybe even prefer, having the ball as shown by their high percentage of possession. Their collection of good passers around this team gives them the ability to play through pressure. Auston Trusty and Jack Elliot have both very good playing out of the back this year (though it seems like Mark McKenzie has had the nod lately over Trusty) and while they’ve made mistakes they’re consistently above average with the ball at their feet and have transitioned into very capable pieces in build-up process.
Philadelphia isn’t just about building out of the back though. Their attack is also one that is going to use the ball to open up space around the field and will occupy the final third. Only Toronto (147) and LAFC (150) have more average pass attempts per game in the final third than the Philadelphia Union (140). At the very center of the possession all is Haris Medunjanin, who comes in 7th in all of Major League Soccer in team chain%--this is to say he has one of the highest percentages of his team’s total touches in the build-up of a shot--his vital ability to spray the ball around gives Philadelphia both the ability to keep possession but also prey on 1v1 opportunities. Unsurprisingly he leads the team in assists.
Without the ball--the defensive actions map (below) shows how they applied pressure. It would seem they have a tendency to try and push the ball to those wide and flanking areas. This, in comparison with the league defensive action map, helps display how tough they were to break down defensively and corroborates their xPassing Against as one of only five teams with negative xPass per 100.
FORMATION
WHY PHILADELPHIA WON’T MAKE THE MLS CUP FINAL:
While the team is the star, no bigger lifting was done than Kacper Przybylko scoring 15 goals from open play in his first season in MLS (this also set the record for most goals from open play for a Union player, breaking the record set by CJ Sapong in 2017). The team is going to create chances but they’ve become dependent upon Przbylko to be the primary one around the net with the teams second and third-leading scorers behind Przbylko (Ilsinho and Fabian) each tied with five.
They’ve gotten big moment goals from the likes of Bedoya, Aaronson and, of course, Illsinho over the course of the season. The trouble is relying on a “Big Moment Committee” is not a sustainable path to success.
Philadelphia’s attack isn’t terrible, it’s actually pretty good. They were sixth with 35 shots in high leverage situations (shots with greater than .25 xG). But good teams have bad games and this here is the metaphor for the entire squad. They have many elements that are good, rock-solid even, but I’m not sure if there is one thing that specifically stands out as being great. 2019 Philadelphia still looks a lot like 2018 Philadelphia which isn’t necessarily bad, it’s just not great either.
WHY PHILADELPHIA WILL MAKE THE MLS CUP FINAL:
Look, Philadelphia is my dark horse to make the playoff final and even calling them a “dark horse” feels disingenuous because I think they’re actually that good. While they aren’t “great” at any one specific given thing they are exceptionally well rounded and diverse that despite not having “the” stand out player can consistently orchestrate dynamic moments every game and have player's off the bench which can be legit difference makers in the closing minutes of a close game.
They can win close games and they can throw up a crazy amount of high leverage chances if given the opportunity. They have the tactical versatility to play their opponent’s multiple ways and play them well.
They can dictate the pace and rhythm through possession. They can play compact and transition into a fastbreak counterattack. They have the passers to operate in tight places and open up space against compact opponents and they have the aerial ball-winners if forced to rely on crosses or other aerial attacks.
They may not be the best at any one of these things but their personnel and talent allow them to compete in multiple ways. While the Union certainly aren’t the favorites, it is well within the realm of possibility that this is a team that could string together a few great games to close out the season with the franchise’s first championship.