You Play to Win The Game
/By Eliot McKinley (@etmckinley)
Everyone knows you should play for the draw on the road. What this article presupposes is... maybe you shouldn’t.
At least in MLS. At least some of the time.
MLS has the largest home advantage among major leagues in world soccer. Since 2016 the away team won 23.5% and drew 22.4% of games for an average of 0.93 points per game. In global comparison, across the leagues covered by FiveThirtyEight, the away team will win 28.8% and tie 25.7% of games for 1.12 points per game. Why this is the case for MLS is still a bit of a mystery.
We recently did a roundtable on the subject, but no firm conclusions were reached. Perhaps the higher home field advantage is due to travel, parity, or playoffs. Maybe it is self-fulfilling, everyone knows that MLS has a huge home advantage, so MLS continues to have a large home field advantage. If you realize that you are going to lose 50% of the time on the road, you will prepare for a game differently, by changing tactics, resting some starters, playing more defensively, changing passing tendencies, or pressing less.
While coaches will rarely say it, MLS teams seem to play to not lose when on the road. You will hear pundits and coaches comment that a team should be happy with the point. However, I’ve done the math, it turns out that a win is worth three times as many points as a draw. If you win more games you will accumulate more points.
Obviously, this is easier said than done. But even a small change in road win rates can make a difference in the final table. For example, if a team were able to push their road win rate up 10% (to 1.0 points per game), they’d gain an extra point over the course of the season. A 30% increase in win rate to 1.11 points per game (still lower than the average Premier League away team) would mean an extra three points.
Perhaps the changes a team may have to make in order to accomplish this would result in a the home team getting some better chances themselves. But that can be OK too. Since 2015, away teams have averaged 11 shots at 0.098 xG per shot, while home teams average 14 at 0.105 xG per shot. If you simulate games based on this (go use Danny Page’s simulator) an away team would be expected to win 27.5% of games and earn 1.09 points per game, both a bit higher than actual values. Let’s say your team is a bit reckless and generates three more shots, while also giving up three more. Now you would be expected to win 28.8% of games and earn 1.11 points per game. While doing this, your team is less likely to tie, but again a win is worth three points, while a tie only one.
Of course the home team is also gaining more points per game in this more aggressive strategy, but this can be mitigated. MLS is unique in that it has both a playoff system and conferences. So maybe you don’t want to potentially increase your playoff rivals’ opportunities to get points off you. But what about when you play inter-conference games? Points acquired by your inter-conference opponent don’t affect your side of the table. So why not make the effort to win these games. Perhaps don’t rest all your starters. Or instead of parking the bus when tied in the 60th minute, you sub in an attacker. Because again, three points are better than one.
Historically, most MLS teams have not seen it this way. Since 2015, away teams in inter-conference games have lost 55% of games compared to 52% of intra-conference games. Furthermore, 24 out of 109 teams have failed to win an away inter-conference away game in a season since 2015.
So obviously there is room for improvement for away teams, assuming that MLS isn’t in Nash equilibrium. Teams seem to recognize this. Prior to the 2019 season, Matias Almeyda stated that “Home or away, this team will play the same way.” However, San Jose finished the season with the 3rd worst away record in 2019. In his introductory press conference, Tab Ramos recognized Houston’s league worst away record (six points) stating that he was going to treat away games like home games.
There is hope for improvement for away teams in MLS, and for some it’s hard to do much worse.