Offseason Outlook: Minnesota United

by @davelaidig

Minnesota ended the season with 53 points and fourth place in the Western Conference. This represented the team’s best finish in MLS, and first playoff appearance since a 2015 NASL encounter against Ottawa. 

The team’s improvement was largely due to the dramatic improvement of the defense; conceding 28 fewer goals than 2018 (accounting for most of the +31 improvement in goal differential). It’s worth noting that the team evolved over the course of the season. Team captain Francisco Calvo was traded after seven games; midfielder Romario Ibarra was sent on a loan (his request as I understand it). And an influx of new faces over the summer meant the team entering the playoffs looked different than the team that started the season. At the start (first seven games), Minnesota conceded over 2 goals per game and scored over 2.4 goals per game. Since then, Minnesota conceded about 1 goal per game, and scored 1.4 goals per game. In short, the team transitioned from a high-risk, high-reward approach to a defense-first mindset. 

After seeming to find the right recipe: one might expect Minnesota to make minimal changes to the roster, with only small tweaks to the formula for success. Yet, that’s not how this offseason has gone.

Roster Changes

Minnesota has approached roster (re)building with all the intensity of a Victorian lover shown a bit of ankle. Out of the 27 players on the final 2019 roster, only 16 remain. Some key losses include Darwin Quintero (Minnesota’s first Designated Player), Miguel Ibarra (Minnesota icon), Abu Danladi (Minnesota’s former #1, and first-ever, draft pick), and the 2019 Goalkeeper of the Year, Vito Manonne. As to the latter, Minnesota reports it extended an offer to Vito Mannone; but he’s exploring all his options, including overseas, and hasn’t signed a contract yet. 

All told, Minnesota no longer has 32% of its 2019 minutes on the roster. From the attack, the Loons have lost 30% of their 2019 goals, 36% of their shots, and 40% of their xG total. Plus, there is no guarantee that their #1 shot-stopper will return. 

On the bright side, only DQ and Vito significantly contributed to the late-season run into the playoffs. And the core defensive starters are set to return. Ike Opara, the 2019 Defender of the Year, will return with Michael Boxall at center back. And Brent Kallman will be available to rotate in; or perhaps join the tandem in a back three if needed. Roman Metanire owns the right back spot, and rookie Chase Gasper acquitted himself well on the left side. And screening for the defenders, Osvaldo Alonso and Jan Gregus will return after solid 2019 seasons. 

New to the club, Minnesota has added midfielder Marlon Hairston, and goalkeeper Gregory Ranjitsingh to begin filling out the roster. But several roster questions remain. 

Forwards

There are only two forwards on the roster; obviously the team needs some. But beyond bodies, the team needs consistent scoring production from this position. Minnesota was 10th in xG per game, and 14th if one is looking at the late-season run. With players responsible for 40% of the xG production now gone, replacing that offense and justifying a deeper playoff run is a concern. 

Still on the team, Angelo Rodriguez was crucial for his hold-up play, and allowing teammates to get in the attack. But his five goals did not match expectations of a DP forward, or his own expectations if body language means anything. Finding teammates that can build through the midfield (allowing Angelo to move higher) may help him get in a scoring groove. But it’s a stretch to say Minnesota can pencil in double digit goals from him as things are. 

The other retained forward is Mason Toye; a young player who showed flashes of lethal finishing in 2019. Toye scored six goals over nine starts and 17 league appearances. But he lacked the consistency the team needs at the position. As a starter, Toye’s player-value contribution was below the position average in seven of nine games. And his 3.65 xG suggests his six goals were slightly over-performing. At only 21, we can expect Toye to improve with experience. But again, there is no proven, consistent source of production at this position currently on the roster. 

Wingers… no, really.

In its short MLS existence, Minnesota has earned a reputation for acquiring wingers, whether needed or not. And this season began with Romario Ibarra, Miguel Ibarra, Kevin Molino, Ethan Finley, and Finnish national Rasmus Schuller all competing for limited playing time out wide. Later, Minnesota made Robin Lod the second-highest paid player on the team, and signed a young DP, Thomas Chacon. 

Thus, it’s a paradox how the wide midfielders became a team weakness in 2019. Over the final dozen games, Minnesota was less likely to score from a wide position than an average MLS team. And this shows up in the xGChain values. Among the 87 MLS wingers with 500+ minutes, the Loons players were 22nd (Molino), 44th (Lod), 64th (Finley) in xGChain per 96. (Miguel was 61st for the record). On defense, Minnesota opponents were more likely than an average MLS team to score from a wide position. Thus, looking into 2020, Minnesota needs to answer some questions at these positions. 

With challenges integrating into the attack, high priced acquisition Robin Lod is a club question mark. 

With his contract, it’s no surprise that Lod was a fixture on the left side. He added some goals, and was near the position average in xGChain. However, most of Lod’s player-value contribution was via shooting, and well below position average in terms of passing and turnovers. He was one of the most conservative passing wingers (5th highest xPassing %); and had a negative pass value. As a new player from a foreign league – much like Vito – it’s reasonable to expect better performance as his chemistry with teammates improves. But the 2019 version was too tentative and isolated. 

On the right side, Molino and Finley look to be the starters, with the possibility that Molino gets moved inside to a CAM role. While Molino creates good player-value for his position, injuries and call-ups have cut into his minutes. Finley has one of the most aggressive pass patterns among wingers (he has the 10th lowest xPassing %). Both Molino and Finley complete fewer passes than their xPassing values; in other words: complete less than an average of what would be expected for the same set of passes. 

Minnesota has added Marlon Hairston to bolster this core, but his strengths are shooting and not passing or creating. As a result, how Minnesota will integrate the wings into the attack are still open questions.

Attacking Midfielder, a #10

In Heath’s preferred 4-2-3-1 formation, the central attacking midfielder (the #10) is a key cog for the attack. The question for 2020 is who takes this role? This role needs to connect the midfield with the wingers and the sole forward, facilitate the attack, and also be available for some scoring chances. In 2019, Quintero most often took this position, but was not the only choice. At times, it was Gregus, Molino, or even newcomer Hassani Dotson. 

The only real criticism for Quintero as the #10 was his propensity to turn the ball over. He added lots of value with the ball at his feet, whether dribbling or shooting, but tended to lose possession and stop attacks short. While not all Darwin’s fault, since August 1st, Minnesota’s chance of scoring per possession was below MLS average. That includes possessions in areas where the #10 needs to operate; e.g., center of pitch in the middle and attacking thirds. Thus, Minnesota needs to figure out who will take over as the #10; and if it’s Molino, whether he can improve production and facilitate the attack.

Starting Goalkeeper

In short, if Vito chooses to return to Minnesota, we can scratch this item off the list. Whether one believes the club is offering too much money, or quibbles with his GK of the year award, Vito certainly is a starting-level keeper in MLS. He also improved over the course of last season, which leads to optimism that his late-season form is closer to his “true” level of performance. 

As the chart shows, Mannone conceded more goals than expected through the first half of the season. At about game 20, his rolling average flips to positive (meaning xGK is higher than goals conceded) and that trends up through the end of the season. 

If Vito does not come back, then this position is still a question mark. Even with Opara and Alonso patrolling the field, a top level shot stopper is needed if Minnesota wants to continue its stingy, defense-first ways.