A Numbers Guide to the MLS Playoffs

By Kieran Doyle

Well, that’s it folks. The 2022 regular season is a wrap, many fought for the well traveled Supporters Shield, many failed. Now, the teams chase the real-and-totally-not-dictated-by-the-randomness-of-single-or-two-leg-elimination-series MLS Cup. As such, let’s take a look at why every team has a shot, or doesn’t. 

A short preface: I am not a psychopath who is writing this all on Decision Day, so if your favorite team’s stats change slightly over the last few games between when I write them and when this comes out, please direct all anger to @ahandleforian on twitter and he’ll make sure you’re happy about it. 

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Philadelphia Union

The case for the Union winning the cup is a really easy one. These dudes absolutely smash teams. They put up more goal difference in the second half of the season (+37 and counting) than all but two MLS teams in the ASA dataset (2013 onwards) did over the entire course of seasons. That’s nuts. They have a clear and cohesive tactical identity: Win lots of high turnovers and score goals in transition, be good on set pieces, and don’t give up much at the other end. 

Their downside case is probably just that teams are generally much more conservative with their build principles in the playoffs and the ability to generate chances off turnovers just generally decreases. We have seen very pressy teams like LAFC and Red Bull struggle to get the same kind of joy when the opposition says “Process be damned, kick it into the Delaware!” I’m really clutching at straws, though.

CF Montreal

Montreal are an ultra organized defensive block (second best xGA in the entire league) and a pacey counter team, with the creative focal point to do some damage in exactly the kind of play that suits playoff soccer. It is practically a trope to envision them sitting deep and absorbing pressure when Wanyama picks off a bad touch from a midfielder who has decided he’s had enough of playing in front of them, it’s into Mihailovic to slip Quioto through. 1-0 to the Impact, game over. 

The risk here is really clear. Goalkeeping. Breza was the league's worst goalkeeper over the course of this season at nearly 10 goals conceded ahead of his expected goals and Pantemis wasn’t much better. As likely as the fictional, but entirely realistic, scenario I described above is, so is Breza dropping a corner for a Brandon Vazquez toe poke from three yards out.

New York Red Bulls

The Red Bulls are good. Something like the 5th or 6th best team in the league by their expected numbers, reasonably worse than Montreal and Nashville, reasonably better than Cincinnati. A perfectly good team. They are however, very good in attacking transitions and extremely good at set pieces. How Red Bull-ian. NYRB were + 2.25 xGD on set pieces this year, Nashville were +2.26. These are far and away first and second in the league. The best way to think of playoff soccer might be to look at it like international tournaments. Can you defend and how are your set pieces?

On the flip side, if you aren’t getting set piece goals, who is scoring for you? Their top xG earner is Lewis Morgan at 5 xG and the somewhat ragtag crew of Barlow and Klimala are just behind. It is really hard to score playoff goals without a guy. If you made me pick reason #1 for failure, this is it.

NYCFC

If we were writing this before Ronny Deila’s departure, this section might look an awful lot like Philly’s. They are an excellent team with an abundance of attacking players who can change games, solid goalkeeping, and a clear and cohesive tactical identity. But we aren’t, this is Nick Cushing’s NYCFC. While the underlyings remain Union-esque (really the Union should be NYCFC-esque, as reigning champs, but I digress), the Pidgeons have lost seven of their last 10 against what can generously be described as, to quote Ian from the now returned ASA podcast, “whatever the opposite of a murderer’s row is.” The oft-forgotten-about part of this is that all of those losses are without the linchpin of their midfield Keaton Parks. Parks is back now and basically any success predicting metric you want to look at with Parks on the field has NYCFC top, or quite close to it.

On the flip side, we have seen sky blue teams like this before. Play decent ball, somewhat fragile, spontaneously combust in playoff games against reasonably organized blocks. Taty remains the team's top xG getter despite leaving 2.5 months ago. Who is going to be the one who steps up?

Orlando City

I’m not going to lie to you, finding the stat that suggests Orlando can win it all is… difficult. Negative goal difference, negative expected goal difference, their goalkeepers are behind their xG, they take a below league average number of shots with a below league average quality of shot, below league average g+ differential, their highest g+ earner is a center back who the majority of their value comes from interrupting, I can go on. These are not the bones of a championship winning side. If I’m going to really really really squint and find a reason, according to our friends at Second Spectrum - Orlando conceded the second fewest passes with only one defender goal side of the ball. 

Why won’t they win the championship? Re-read the whole paragraph above.

FC Cincinnati

Look at us, talking about you in the playoffs. Go on. FCC have really turned it around this year and almost all of that falls on the back of improved goalkeeping play and Brandon Vazquez going Super Saiyan. Between Kann and Celentano, the Cinci GK corps have beaten their post shot xG (only by 1 goal, but still). This seems unremarkable until you realize FCC were -16, -7, and -15 PSxG-G in the last three seasons. Just getting league average goalkeeping is huge. If goalkeeping is the reason they won’t immediately lose 5-0, Vazquez is the reason they’ve got a chance to win. He leads the league in xG, while doing all the stuff you need a point man to do in tough playoff matches. Per Statsbomb via FBRef, Vazquez is 85th percentile among strikers for touches in his own penalty area, 84th percentile among strikers for clearances, he is top 10 among strikers in interrupting g+ and two of the dudes ahead of him are also FCC strikers. That sort of graft really lifts you above your stead.

The negative argument for Cincinnati lies squarely on the bench. The Orange and Blue have gotten solid coverage from their core group of players, but once you move past that the reading gets pretty grim. g+ is not particularly fond of any of their subs, with almost all of them in all positions popping up as below average for their positions (as well as DP defensive midfielder Obinna Nwobodo). If things don’t work out for the Knifey Lions, I’d expect being forced into playing some rotation guys would be part of it.

Inter Miami

Miami are hard to evaluate. Teams with this negative a goal difference generally just don’t put up as many points as Miami have. There are a few, important, caveats. Miami have underperformed their expected goals conceded, but that is almost entirely the result of the backup goalkeepers. Drake Callender is basically at 0 G-PSxG for the year, so if he stays healthy, that isn’t an issue. Regardless, if Miami go anywhere they will do so off the back of the attacking triumvirate of Campana, Higuain, and former MLS MVP Alejandro Pozuelo. All three prongs of the trident are above 0.5 xG+xA, that basically guarantees you a functional attack - even if one has a bad day.

At the other end of the pitch is where the trepidation lies. Center backs, center backs, center backs. Of the players who have seen center back minutes, exactly one has a positive g+ for the season. Now, g+ and center backs aren’t the most complementary of pairings at times, but it does clock defenders who can defend their penalty area, and defenders who can pass. Not being able to do either to a high level is a pretty hard ceiling on any flamingo coloured playoff aspirations.

Western Conference

Los Angeles FC

By every number we care about, LAFC, in the aggregate, are amazing. League leaders in xGD, g+ differential, both FiveThirtyEight and ASA have them (along with the Union) as prohibitive favorites to MLS Cup. The real differentiator is the overwhelming variety of attacking options the Black and Gold have at their disposal. With a minimum of 350 minutes, LAFC have three representatives in the top 10 by g+ per 96 (Bouanga, Bale, and Cifuentes) and we haven’t even gotten to talking about Vela and Arango. It’s hard to remember a team with the number of attacking solutions they can deploy in any given playoff situation. Want to sit deep and transition? Dominate possession and link play? Press like animals and create turnovers? Pick whatever attacking group suits your fancy.

If you’re really hunting for an excuse to doubt LAFC, aside from just looking at their playoff performances for the past entire existence of the franchise and casting a gigantic  👀 emoji, it lies in the old cliche that matches are won in both penalty boxes. When we break g+ down to just the goals added value earned in each penalty box, LAFC drop from far and away the best team in the league to about the same level as Sporting Kansas City and FC Cininnati. That is, somewhat misleadingly, still good, just not amazing. 

Austin

Austin are frauds. I have been steadfast in my opinion on this. They do, however, have two really good things going for them in their chase for MLS Cup. First, Brad Stuver is legit. Two straight seasons of better than expected shot stopping, with significantly above average sweeping and cross claiming. It is extraordinarily difficult to win in the playoffs without solid goalkeeper play. The second is that unless they play Nashville, Austin might have the best player on the field in every single match up in Sebastian Driussi. Driussi is top five by non penalty expected goals and expected assists, with a load of defensive activity and ball progression into the box stuff to boot. Soccer isn’t a strong link sport the way basketball is, where one star can drag four bums to a championship with them, but having someone who can elevate above in a given moment sure does help. 

On the flip side, Austin’s underlying numbers have been very detached from their actual numbers all year. There is nothing in the numbers that I can see that makes them look better than Orlando. Not exactly the comparable you want. If it all comes crashing back to Earth, don’t say we didn’t warn you.

FC Dallas

Dallas are the latest in a line of teams with cohesive tactical identities and talent development pathways for young players to blossom. Press, press, and press some more. Jesus Ferreira and Paul Arriola have formed two thirds of a rapacious pressing trident that wins the ball high and slashes through teams in transition. While winning games, FC Dallas led MLS in interrupting g+, that is value gained from defensive actions, in the opposition half. This is a team whose ability to turn you over and get out and run gets better when they’re in front. 

There are perhaps two glaring downside risks for this team: 1) The attack is very Ferreira dependent. The dude either shoots or creates over 40% of all the xG Dallas created in 2022. If he hits a slump, or a knock that he’s extra careful with pre-World Cup? Eesh. 2) Defensive midfield is just kind of whatever. g+ doesn’t get everything right but it’s usually pretty good at clocking DM’s who win the ball lots or move the ball forward lots. g+ is really not fond of any of Cerillo, Quignon, or Servania. Tough to win without elite DM play!

Nashville

Why will Nashville win? Hany. Mukhtar. Dude is the MLS version of Adriano in Pro Evolution Soccer 6 but small and fast instead of gigantic. He is the league leader in non penalty expected goals, assists, and in g+ by a mile. He’s the MVP. Those players win you games. Add in the 3rd best defense, best set piece expected goal difference, and overall approach to soccer - this team is built to succeed in the playoffs.

Why won’t they? If Dallas are very Ferreira dependent, Nashville are England and Mukhtar is upbeat news stories about the Queen. They survive solely off Hany Mukhtar’s grace. Mukhtar might win you games, but if he is off or injured, you don’t have many solutions to do something else. Mukhtar has created or taken the shot on 53% of Nashville’s xG. 53%! One player!

LA Galaxy

The Galaxy are sneaky good. The sixth best expected goal difference in the league, the fourth best expected goals for, Mark (sans y and all) Delgado, Puig, Vazquez and Brugman all profile as really excellent center midfielders, strikers who score goals, it’s really all you can ask for. Two fun narratives for the Galaxy: if we look at the three key g+ categories for midfielders (dribbling, passing, interrupting), Delgado, Puig and Brugman turn up as three of the top 15 midfielders in the league. Seems useful for playoff matchups! The second is more nebulous - LA lead the league in fouling g+ earned. That is, the amount of goal probability they earn from their players getting fouled (freekicks, penalties etc.) and the fouls they commit (stopping counters, mostly) is the best. Winning penalties isn’t exactly a repeatable skill, and Chicharito might miss them anyways, but who knows.

The downside for LA is two pronged. Bond is bad. Two straight years of significant xG underperformance, as I mentioned above, it’s very difficult to win without at least average goalkeeping. The second prong is penalties. Bond has saved one of his last 18 penalties faced, and their designated PK taker is bad. You hope it doesn’t come to it, but if you lose on PK’s, we can all see why. 

Minnesota United

In the battle of who is more fake, Minnesota avoided defeat against Vancouver to lock it down the Decision Day. Minnesota are… not great. A deeply negative expected goal difference, 9th best xGF in the West, 11th best xGA. Teams like that don’t generally make the playoffs. On the bright side, they do have Bebelo. That guy does everything. Six and a half shot creating actions, 18 progressive passes and carries, while somehow receiving eight progressive passes. All of that creative work doesn’t turn into a spectacular amount of xG or xA, but the guy is an attack unto himself. If the Loons go anywhere, Reynoso will be the guy to carry them there. Add in a hot GK in Dayne St. Clair, you’ve got a chance.

The reason they won’t win the Cup is easy, and could be written for a lot of these teams. They just aren’t that good. Outside of Reynoso, there just isn’t a lot there. None of Amarilla, Frangapane, or Hlongwane have been especially productive as attackers. Both Frangapane and Hlongwane have earned more interrupting g+ than they have for any other part of their games. For the unfamiliar, both of those guys are attacking players. I just don’t see it for the Loons this year.

Real Salt Lake

RSL are Columbus West. About 0 expected goal difference, don’t score a tonne, don’t concede a tonne. However, instead of the heliocentric playmaker, they’ve got some really fun and dynamic strike partnerships - whether in 4-4-2 or 3-5-2 of some denomination, with Cordova and Savarino. Goals Added likes RSL. They’re rated similarly to Cincinnati by g+ difference, where they pop in two places. First, RSL allow the 5th lowest g+ receiving value, which is interesting and good. Receiving is generally predictive of xG, so that’s good. More interestingly, they allow the least amount of opposition interrupting g+. This definitely comes from team style. RSL launch the most long balls in the league at 107 per FBRef, and they have the 2nd highest g+ passing from their own half (g+ loves gaining field position by pumping long balls). Now, is it aesthetic? No, certainly not. Is not giving up any bad turnovers, playing long balls behind for two athletic strikers, and being difficult to breakdown a really solid plan for playoff ball? Yes, yes it is.

To take the opposing view, what do RSL do if they concede first? Since the last week of July, RSL have won only twice. In those games, they’ve conceded the first goal seven times (and drawn 0-0 once). Defend, launch and squish is hard to do when the opposition aren’t eager to attack. Add in a bottom 8 set piece xGD (mostly on the defensive side) and that spells a little bit of trouble.