2022 MLS Season Previews: Colorado Rapids, Los Angeles FC, Real Salt Lake
/We’re wrapping up our MLS team previews today with Colorado Rapids, LAFC, and RSL, as the MLS season opens tomorrow, February 26, 2022. You can find all of them here!
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Colorado Rapids: Sharing is caring when it comes to xG
2021 in Review
2021 was the culmination of an upward trajectory for the Rapids, who were a solid basement dweller in 2018 with a -27 goal difference. 2019 saw a gradual improvement to -5 GD and narrowly missing out on the playoffs. 2020 they find their way back into the playoffs, +5 GD. 2021, win the West, +15 GD. Talk about playing the hits. An unfortunate playoff loss later, and the Rapids are back at the precipice of a new season, with a more-rebuilt-than-expected roster, and the weighty expectation of being towards the top of the table.
Offseason Roster Changes
Well, uh, there’s a lot. Cole Bassett now finds himself a resident of the Netherlands on an 18-month loan deal to Feyenoord. Bassett led the Rapids in xG from midfield last year, which is 1) extremely impressive and 2) really hard to replace. The list of midfielders who had a higher total xG than Bassett is a list of one: Marcelino Moreno. Replacing his lung-busting runs on the ball as well as his 99th percentile pressure totals (per StatsBomb via FBRef) and 2500 minutes is just very, very difficult. That is made even more difficult when they then move Kellyn Acosta to LAFC for $1.5M in funny money. Acosta maybe never hit the way they expected him to, but getting $1.5M and 3 years of solid play for Dom Badji (who they got back anyway) and a 2nd round pick is a coup, Sláinte Pádraig.
Colorado replaced those two guys with Bryan Acosta from Dallas and a U22 initiative signing in Max (he literally just goes by Max). Acosta is a weird profile choice to replace either of those guys and the “obvious” first choice midfield of Kaye-Price-Acosta is really conservative. But, that being said, could steamroll people. That’s a whole lot of passing and ball winning. I don’t know anything about Max, but being able to play 12 games for Flamengo at 18 isn’t nothing.
The other big departure came in the form of center back Auston Trusty leaving (but not really) to Arsenal in a ‘wink wink nudge nudge’ shared-owner deal. Trusty will stick around until at least the summer , so they can figure out the whole center back thing later. The other other not-big-but-somewhat-noteworthy departure was Dom Badji, who left to FCC, a move surely to turn their fortunes around. While Badji was not the piece this team needed to finish attacks, it does segue quite nicely to what the biggest question for this team is in 2022.
One Big Question: Who is going to score?
The Rapids very much got it done by committee last year, with no player having over 10 xG or 10 goals, but five players with over five in each category (Yes, Rubio and Shinyashiki technically had 4.94 and 4.9 xG respectively, but I have a narrative to stick to here). Their leading scorer was Michael Barrios with eight goals, which is just generally not a sentence successful teams have ever used. At the same time, their leading xG getter Cole Bassett is now gone.
Maybe Mad Max is going to make it work and fill a lot of that attacking output from midfield or as part of a front three (he literally just arrived late in the box and scored a very lovely volley off a knockdown as I wrote this, so read the remainder at your peril), or maybe it’s time the Rapids should use one of those handy dandy roster spots that let you sign players for more than the max salary. With the departure of Younes Namli, who just wasn’t a productive player in Colorado, the Rapids are now the only team in the league with zero (0) designated players. Zero! Three fewer than the league maximum of three.
Now, this is sort of a lie, because Mark-Anthony Kaye and his new extension are almost certainly above the max budget charge of $612,500, but it doesn’t feel the same. It’s like when you’re driving home and you ask your mom to stop to pick up french fries and she says you have french fries at home. Technically true, but no contract re-up on a valued domestic talent is ever going to hit the same as an Eastern European target man with a blonde mohawk and a tattoo of a G-Wagon on his chest, and no McCains super fries will ever be the same as McDonalds.
But let’s say the Rapids did want to go get a striker. Given their history of in-league trades, I’m just going to throw out a few MLS names. Ola Kamara is obviously not wanted in DC and has totally bagged everywhere he goes, not on insane mega franchise money (but is a DP). Maybe the wrong age profile for Colorado but would be a bit of a free hit if the trade demands aren’t obscene. Sunusi Ibrahim put up very solid xG numbers for Montreal and they have 813 strikers on their roster after signing Kei Kamara. Ibrahim is 19 and also on a very manageable salary. Similar to Kamara, he really only gets shots, but still, 19 years old and shots are fun. Brandon Vazquez has consistently put up semi-interesting numbers for Atlanta United and now FC Cincinnati. In and around 0.6 xG+xA and a lot of defensive activity in about thirty 90s at age 22, pretty good!
The positive spin on this for Rapids fans is that it might not matter. The Rapids do so many little things to juice what is a very under-talented attack. Courtesy of our friends at Second Spectrum, here are a few juicy numbers. The Rapids are below league average for average shot distance at 15.4m. They’re ranked 11th for shot total inside the 18-yard box and inside the width of the six-yard box. They are ranked 5th in shots generated off of turnovers, at 6.33, and 3rd in the average quality of those shots as measured by xG. Taking smarter shots and getting out in transition as much as they can are little things that the Rapids can do to beef up a slim attack. The Rapids opened up CCL playing a 3-5-2, which puts a tonne of onus on one of the midfielders to burst into the box, so maybe that’s what all of that is going to be. Either way, with a solid spine, Colorado fans should look forward to another season of fun.
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Los Angeles FC: Tajouri’s Still Out
By Sean Steffen
In my previous two previews on Dallas and San Jose, I employed a series of simple passing and chance-creation diagnostic tools to identify problems with each team’s respective game models. While both previews are available to read, the broad conclusion of both was that each team possessed a bad combination of rarely having the ball in the final third and once there, choosing inefficient passes such as crosses. These cross are only converted about one in every 69 attempts, versus non-cross passes ending in the box, which are converted every 39 attempts. In both cases, this flaw was a crucial factor in each team not making the playoffs.
But this preview is about LAFC, and I’ve picked LAFC for my third preview because unlike SJ and Dallas, this can not be said for why LAFC didn’t make the playoffs. In fact, it can be said that LAFC missed the playoffs despite performing really well in these categories.
But lady analytics does not back down from a challenge, and as her steward, I feel it’s only right to take up her cause and attempt to solve this confounding problem in 1000 words or less. Let’s begin!
Offense
Unlike SJ and Dallas, LAFC love to have the ball in the final third. While LAFC are not a team that dominates possession, coming in at league average, they absolutely are a team that likes to have possession in dangerous areas. LAFC had the highest percentage of touches in the final third in the league.
But what did they do with the ball in the final third? In our previous two previews, this was also a problem. For LAFC? Not so much. LAFC were second only to NYCFC in non-cross passes delivered into the box and had the lowest percentage of final third touches that were crosses in the league. This bodes well for chance creation.
Okay, so LAFC do well in the passing department, but this is just a simple diagnostic tool, right? There are plenty of passes into the box that simply aren’t all that helpful, and it’s entirely possible for a team to look good in this category in a way that is not entirely indicative of their chance creation potency. What about the shots? Well, LAFC’s offense racked up the most xG in the league, so LAFC seems to be turning these passes into dangerous shots, just fine.
Okay, but what about ASA’s new tool: goals added? Does g+ give us any insights into why LAFC didn’t make the playoffs?
Nope. Again, LAFC’s offense shines, second only to New England in offensive goals added. You know, the team that broke the points record.
LAFC’s offense seems fine.
Defense
Okay. This is getting frustrating. Now what? As of yet, we have only been looking at the offense. Maybe for as good as that offense is, the defense was just worse.
Let’s try these same tricks in reverse to assess this.
LAFC gave up the fewest non-cross passes ending in the box in MLS. LAFC gave up the 5th-lowest xG total in the league and the second-lowest goals added from their opposition. Truthfully, the advanced numbers sing, and it’s a damn-fine tune.
So what the heck went wrong? So far, we’ve looked at numbers that are predictive of goal scoring, and we have done this because these numbers predict future goal scoring better than past goal scoring. But what about those pesky goals? What do they say?
Opponents managed 51 goals on LAFC on just 37 expected goals. To use a technical term, that’s kinda bonkers. What it isn’t, however, is a satisfying answer because it lacks the crucial answer as to why.
G-xG is a fickle mistress that often swings just as wildly for concrete reasons as it does for unlucky dice rolling, which raises the question of how much of LAFC’s struggles were bad luck, and how much of them were by their own making.
The following chart looks at the 12 goal types described in the Where Goals Come From series of articles on this site. The number displayed in each category is how much the opposition overperformed xG in said category. Negative numbers in a category show that LAFC’s opponents scored that many more goals than they were expected to from said category.
From a numbers perspective, teams really shouldn’t have been scoring as many goals on individual play and cut-backs as they were. Is this a sign of poor defending, be it by shape or a collection of errors, or are the dice simply being unkind? If this were an analysis inside the club, this would be a great trigger for video investigation of these chances. Are there any patterns? Any commonalities such as defender positioning which xG has a hard time picking up?
Spoiler alert. I don’t work for LAFC, nor do I have a private video analyst for preview articles, so the defensive positioning side will have to remain an open question. But from a data perspective, I think we can at the very least show that there is something there worth exploring.
The goalkeeping side, however, is something we can dig into a little more. LAFC had 3 goalkeepers accrue minutes on the season, and unfortunately for them, their numbers were quite poor in the shot-stopping category.
If I were an analyst at LAFC, I would have been banging on the GM’s door about the need for better goalkeeping next year. Luckily for LAFC, they have an outstanding team of analysts over there, and it certainly seems they came to this conclusion as well. Enter LAFC’s most important offseason signing: Maxime Crepeau, shot-stopping extraordinaire.
Conclusions
Conclusions? You haven’t even mentioned Bob’s exit, the impending Rossi sale, or the reports that this is Vela’s last ride in MLS. What kind of a preview is this?
While all of these things are undoubtedly major stories, the signing of Crepeau may prove to be the most impactful. While you can never guarantee that a player’s numbers will transfer from one club to another, if they do, I don’t see LAFC having any trouble making the playoffs once more.
Without jumping into the video on the individual and cut-back problem, it’s hard to project beyond that, but given the overall predictive numbers surrounding this team, it’s not crazy to imagine them competing for the shield.
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Real Salt Lake: Mastropiece Theatre
By Ian L.
Real Salt Lake’s playoff run in 2021 was the stuff of near miracles. It was a Cinderella story, but instead of Cinderella getting to marry the Prince at the end, she just wound up losing in the playoffs to Portland. My literary allusions are the RSL of literary allusions. Yes, RSL pleased an entire nation of Major League Soccer fans by vanquishing Seattle using the power of narrative irony, thus ensuring that Seattle fans would have to suffer the ignominy of only having a pretty good season. Yes, they cast aside Sporting Kansas City, deepening the permanent scowl upon Peter Vermes’ face. Yet when given the opportunity to complete the ultimate, “Man, f*** those guys,” trifecta and spare all of us the possibility of a deeply uncomfortable championship by Merritt Paulson, the magic ultimately left them and Manchester City of America had to step in. Looking back, It was not a good year for Major League Soccer.
But it was an ok year for Real Salt Lake.
How it go tho?
It go ok.
It’s pretty solidly middle of the road to lower-middle of the road. Except for goals scored, which surprised me. Who knew RSL were such offensive juggernauts? You’re no doubt also thinking, “Wait, if RSL scored so many goals how come they weren’t that good?” I trust you can figure this one out without me revealing the answer, but I’ll assume most of you are just skimming this anyway and will point out that it’s because they also allowed a lot of goals! In fact, if you like goals, watching RSL play was a pretty good way to see them. The average of 3.09 goals per match involving RSL is tied for the second highest in the league (with Portland, and behind FC Cincinnati, who made it to the top of that particular chart exactly the way you do not want to).
RSL have a very decent center back in Justen Glad, one of the league’s best right backs in Aaron Herrera, and also some other guys that play defense in a manner that is not consistent with excellence. Damir Kreilach is good. You could argue that Everton Luiz is good in a very pragmatic way. Certainly at times anyway. That’s like three to four good players. Oh and Rusna…well. We’ll get to that.
Additions, subtractions, alterations and the like
Albert Rusnak. Well, RSL may have ousted Seattle from the playoffs, but Seattle got their best player in free agency, so who really won? I mean, RSL won at soccer so I’d go with RSL still, but anyway. Rusnak has been a key cog in the Real Salt Like machinery, and his presence will not go unmissed. Rusnak struggled at times last season, not being able to contribute as effectively from out wide, but when Mastroeni took over the ship, he restored Rusnak to his central position and Rusnak once again began to flourish. Now Rusnak and the man who made the questionable decision of shifting him out wide are both with Seattle. But that’s not RSL’s problem now. RSL’s problem is figuring out where that creativity is going to come from.
data courtesy of Second Spectrum
That’s not nothing, and it remains to be seen who’s going to be picking up that slack. Perhaps it’s the new guy. Let’s see how he is at all that creativity stuff:
Hey you. Don’t look at that. Nobody said you could look at that. What are you, a cop? Stats are stupid anyway. Ask Pablo himself. Stats aren’t as important as the human spirit. And anyway look at those pressing numbers! RSL is well known for their very effective pressing game.
data courtesy of Second Spectrum
You know what, let’s not focus on stats or data. Data isn’t out there giving it all for the shirt. The statistics aren’t gritty. You can’t measure expected heart!
Anyway, Major League Soccer is probably a good deal easier of a league than the Bundesliga, so maybe Cordova will be an elite creative attacking force. Maybe Mastroeni is remaking the side into an elite pressing unit. Or maybe RSL might want to look at doing a thing or two about finding a creative attacker with those three open DP slots. We’ll see. It’s going to be an adjustment no matter what.
Word is one of those DP slots is going to go to old RSL favorite Jefferson Savarino. Savarino was a decent contributor in his previous three year stint, pitching in 21 goals and 21 assists. Savarino would slot in out wide nicely, and the good thing about signing a known quantity is that he’s a known quantity. He scored 17 times for Atletico Mineiro in 76 appearances, and that’s not bad for a wide player. During his three years with RSL, he averaged 0.17 xA per 96 minutes which was good enough to be 12th among qualified wingers in MLS during that time. I think he’s probably gotten a little bit better, so I think this signing does go a long way towards addressing some of the creative vacuum left by Rusnak.
Completely unrelated, does anybody know what Joao Plata is up to these days?
Otherwise, not a lot of note is happening transaction wise. Scott Caldwell signed as a free agent and should provide some reasonably good depth/competition for one of those midfield spots, and Johan Kappelhoff is a defender to be certain.
Outlook
With a roster build still in progress (I assume), it’s a bit difficult to pinpoint where this side will land. They’re definitely capable of giving anybody a game on any given matchday, but I look at the talent here versus the talent elsewhere and I have a hard time seeing them separate themselves beyond that pack of teams chasing one of those last playoff spots. The West is fairly tight outside of two or three teams and three good DP signings could be enough to put a team like RSL near the top of that second group.
The only thing that is certain is that Pablo Mastroeni will be dressed impeccably on the sidelines. xFIT off the charts.