Once again, it’s time for the Major League Soccer playoffs and penalty shootout season. Changes in the playoff format to a best of three-game first round where tie games after regulation go straight to a shootout mean that a player’s penalty taking skill may be more important than ever.

To quantitatively determine the best penalty takers in the 2023 playoffs, I again turn to empirical Bayes estimation. If you want the full explanation of how this works, go read my 2021 article on this topic, or, better yet, Tuan Nguyen Doan’s work that I based this work on. In short, I gathered penalty kick information via FBRef for 863 players that have attempted more than 4 penalties in their club careers (international matches are excluded here). This was used to calculate what is known as the prior distribution - basically what you would expect a normal player’s penalty taking ability to be if you know nothing about them. As a player takes penalties, the number and conversion rate give you more information about each player that updates your prior distribution to a posterior distribution. The more penalties that a player attempts gives more confidence in our ability to determine how good they actually are at taking penalties.

Since 2021, there have been a few changes in the American soccer landscape that have helped with this endeavor, mainly League’s Cup and MLS Next Pro. In both of these competitions there are no draws and a shootout is conducted immediately after 90 minutes. This has resulted in an additional 403 penalties among 2023 MLS players boosting the overall sample size by 35%.

Daniel Gazdag is the king of penalties in MLS converting 26 of his 28 chances, including a ludicrous 15 attempts so far this year. The quantity and consistent conversion give us a high confidence that he is a strong penalty taker. Of note, is Seattle’s penalty specialist Center Back Abdoulaye Cissoko, he of 101 MLS minutes played in 2023. Cissoko has never attempted a penalty in MLS, but has converted 13 of 14 in his time with Tacoma Defiance in USL and MLS Next Pro, including going 5 for 5 in shootouts. While its likely that he will not see a minute in the playoffs, Brian Schmetzer may want to keep him on the bench in case he is needed as a late sub if it looks like the game is going into a shootout.

On the flip side, there are a few big names that are surprisingly poor at converting their penalties, including 2022 MVP Hany Mukhtar, and Atlanta teammates Giorgos Giakoumakis and Thiago Almeda. Unlike the players that are good penalty takers, the confidence in the poor takers is generally lower, mostly because if you don’t convery your penalties, you don’t get many future chances. Big name players like Mukhtar, Giakoumakis, and Almeda are the exceptions - because who is going to say no to a highly paid attacking Designated Player when they want to take a penalty. Mukhtar, in particular, has actually improved since 2021. In his first two seasons in MLS he went 2 for 5 in his penalties, but in the last two seasons has only missed two of his 15 chances.

If you are a fan or coach of any of the teams that made the 2023 playoffs, you can find the estimated penalty conversion rates for all the players with at least four career penalty attempts below.

  
  
  
      Bayesian Estimates of Penalty Conversion Rates
    

      Players in the 2023 MLS Eastern Conference Playoffs, minumum 4 attempts
    

      Player
      
        Penalties
      
      Bayesian Estimate
      95% Confidence Interval
    

      Converted
      Attempted
      Rate
    

  
      Atlanta United FC
    
Jackson Conway
4
4
1.00
0.82
          0.960.59
Georgios Giakoumakis
10
14
0.71
0.73
          0.880.54
Thiago Almada
6
11
0.55
0.64
          0.830.44

      Charlotte FC
    
Derrick Jones
4
4
1.00
0.82
          0.960.59
Enzo Copetti
4
5
0.80
0.77
          0.930.53
Karol Swiderski
7
9
0.78
0.76
          0.920.56
Scott Arfield
6
8
0.75
0.75
          0.910.53
Ashley Westwood
2
6
0.33
0.60
          0.810.36

      Columbus Crew
    
Cucho Hernández
13
14
0.93
0.85
          0.960.69
Diego Rossi
4
4
1.00
0.82
          0.960.59
Jacen Russel-Rowe
4
4
1.00
0.82
          0.960.59
Christian Ramirez
12
14
0.86
0.81
          0.940.64

      FC Cincinnati
    
Brandon Vázquez
5
5
1.00
0.83
          0.970.61
Luciano Acosta
16
19
0.84
0.81
          0.930.65
Arquimides Ordonez
4
5
0.80
0.77
          0.930.53
Brenner
3
4
0.75
0.75
          0.930.51
Aaron-Salem Boupendza
3
4
0.75
0.75
          0.930.51
Yuya Kubo
5
7
0.71
0.73
          0.910.51

      Nashville SC
    
Fafa Picault
10
12
0.83
0.79
          0.930.61
Sam Surridge
5
6
0.83
0.78
          0.940.56
Walker Zimmerman
4
5
0.80
0.77
          0.930.53
Aníbal Godoy
3
4
0.75
0.75
          0.930.51
Hany Mukhtar
15
21
0.71
0.73
          0.860.56

      New England Revolution
    
Bobby Wood
5
5
1.00
0.83
          0.970.61
Carles Gil
14
16
0.88
0.83
          0.940.66
Jack Panayotou
4
4
1.00
0.82
          0.960.59
Giacomo Vrioni
6
7
0.86
0.79
          0.940.58
Gustavo Bou
13
16
0.81
0.79
          0.920.62
DeJuan Jones
3
4
0.75
0.75
          0.930.51
Damian Rivera
2
4
0.50
0.68
          0.880.43

      New York Red Bulls
    
Lewis Morgan
7
8
0.88
0.80
          0.950.60
Cory Burke
5
6
0.83
0.78
          0.940.56
Dante Vanzeir
8
10
0.80
0.77
          0.920.57
Tom Barlow
2
4
0.50
0.68
          0.880.43

      Orlando City SC
    
Facundo Torres
8
8
1.00
0.86
          0.970.67
Martín Ojeda
6
6
1.00
0.84
          0.970.64
Kyle Smith
4
4
1.00
0.82
          0.960.59
Mauricio Pereyra
2
6
0.33
0.60
          0.810.36

      Philadelphia Union
    
Daniel Gazdag
26
28
0.93
0.88
          0.960.76
Jesús Bueno
5
5
1.00
0.83
          0.970.61
Julián Carranza
6
7
0.86
0.79
          0.940.58
Jack McGlynn
6
7
0.86
0.79
          0.940.58
Mikael Uhre
3
4
0.75
0.75
          0.930.51

  
  

  
  
  
      Bayesian Estimates of Penalty Conversion Rates
    

      Players in the 2023 MLS Western Conference Playoffs, minumum 4 attempts
    

      Player
      
        Penalties
      
      Bayesian Estimate
      95% Confidence Interval
    

      Converted
      Attempted
      Rate
    

  
      FC Dallas
    
Jáder Obrian
9
9
1.00
0.86
          0.970.69
Jesús Jiménez
7
7
1.00
0.85
          0.970.65
Bernard Kamungo
6
6
1.00
0.84
          0.970.64
Jesús Ferreira
4
4
1.00
0.82
          0.960.59

      Houston Dynamo FC
    
Sebastian Kowalczyk
7
7
1.00
0.85
          0.970.65
Amine Bassi
12
14
0.86
0.81
          0.940.64
Carlos Ferreira
3
4
0.75
0.75
          0.930.51

      Los Angeles FC
    
Denis Bouanga
15
16
0.94
0.86
          0.960.71
Ilie Sánchez
10
12
0.83
0.79
          0.930.61
Mario González
4
5
0.80
0.77
          0.930.53
Carlos Vela
30
39
0.77
0.76
          0.870.64

      Real Salt Lake
    
Cristian Arango
11
12
0.92
0.84
          0.960.66
Maikel Chang
4
4
1.00
0.82
          0.960.59
Damir Kreilach
11
13
0.85
0.80
          0.930.62

      San Jose Earthquakes
    
Jeremy Ebobisse
4
4
1.00
0.82
          0.960.59
Cristian Espinoza
9
11
0.82
0.78
          0.930.59
Jamiro Monteiro
4
5
0.80
0.77
          0.930.53

      Seattle Sounders FC
    
Abdoulaye Cissoko
14
15
0.93
0.86
          0.960.70
Nicolás Lodeiro
24
27
0.89
0.85
          0.940.72
Raúl Ruidíaz
20
23
0.87
0.83
          0.940.69
Fredy Montero
14
18
0.78
0.77
          0.900.60
Albert Rusnák
12
16
0.75
0.75
          0.890.57

      Sporting Kansas City
    
Alan Pulido
17
18
0.94
0.87
          0.970.73
Johnny Russell
13
16
0.81
0.79
          0.920.62
Felipe Gutiérrez
5
6
0.83
0.78
          0.940.56
Robert Voloder
3
4
0.75
0.75
          0.930.51
Remi Walter
3
5
0.60
0.70
          0.890.46

      St. Louis City SC
    
Anthony Markanich
5
5
1.00
0.83
          0.970.61
Eduard Löwen
4
4
1.00
0.82
          0.960.59
Tomas Ostrak
4
4
1.00
0.82
          0.960.59
Klauss
6
7
0.86
0.79
          0.940.58
Samuel Adeniran
4
5
0.80
0.77
          0.930.53
Aziel Jackson
6
8
0.75
0.75
          0.910.53
Célio Pompeu
3
4
0.75
0.75
          0.930.51

      Vancouver Whitecaps FC
    
Ryan Gauld
15
19
0.79
0.78
          0.900.61
Brian White
4
5
0.80
0.77
          0.930.53
Simon Becher
7
9
0.78
0.76
          0.920.56

  
  

Finally, we come to Lionel Messi, because no article on MLS can be written without mentioning him, even if he’s not in the playoffs this season. While Messi may be the GOAT, his penalty conversion rate is only slightly better than average. He ranks 74th out of the 186 active MLS players who have taken at least 4 penalties in their club career. What separates Messi from the other players near him with similar estimated mean conversion rates is the confidence we have that he is slightly above average. Messi’s 105 attempts give us a much narrower peak at a conversion rate of 0.795, compared to the prior distribution mean of 0.748. Messi is clearly no Daniel Gazdag.

American Soccer Analysis

Who are the best penalty takers in the 2023 MLS playoffs?

American Soccer Analysis