2023 Season Previews: Real Salt Lake, New England Revolution, Chicago Fire
/We’re rolling out 2023 MLS Season previews ahead of the regular season that kicks off on Saturday, February 25, which is definitely something happening in the future, and has certainly has not already occurred, as you obviously know. You can find all our previews here!
Real Salt Lake: Shooting for la Luna
By Paul Harvey
In 2022, Real Salt Lake was picked by by nine of 10 MLS pundits to finish in the 10-12 range. These spots are reserved for teams who are unexciting and lack top end talent. 13th-15th are reserved for spectacular disasters, while the rest are for teams that really could be special (though a few still become spectacular disasters). RSL beat expectations and finished 7th.
There was no surprises to their finish - the 47 points they earned were exactly what was predicted by our xPts model, based on the chances they created and allowed. They did not deviate from the mean in any notable way. They had no star players, really, especially after an injury took out their best player in Damir Kreilach. Instead, they just churned their way to the playoffs for a second year in a row.
Is 2023 going to be any different? There aren’t any new stars on the team. They’ve plugged some holes, while departing players have made for some new ones. They’ve been picked to finish 9th by five MLS pundits, and three picked them for 11th. No one picked them higher than 7th, reflecting yet again the limited potential - either bad or good- for this team.
Just look at that bee swarm plot!
Shooting for la Luna
One of the bigger signings of last season was the signing of U20 USYNT representative Diego Luna, who had developed a reputation as one of the more exciting prospects in USL for El Paso Locomotive. The young player had all the makings of a special attacker, and in fact at the time of his move added more g+ per 96 minutes than any young player in the league, or any player in 2022.
Unfortunately, Luna failed to make an impact in MLS. Part of that is the fact that he mostly came off the bench as a late sub, earning just 142 of his 449 total minutes in games where he played 65 minutes or more. Those sub appearances tended not to work out:
If there’s any positive sign, though, it’s that his two starts actually did look pretty good from a g+ perspective. He’s clearly a player that can grow in influence throughout the game, and while any hope for him to come in and instantly dominate was unfounded, as long as he gets the chance to prove himself on a regular basis he might just prove he can be special.
Brody and Bryan
One area RSL has been incredible at the past few seasons is producing talented fullbacks. For some reason, the Rio Tinto air producing countless guys that can play well in possession, get up and down a sideline, and defend like their lives depend on it. Aaron Herrera was one of the most recent of these players; the former U20 national teamer developed well and over the offseason was transferred to CF Montreal for a good amount of GAM.
Aaron Herrera’s replacement actually played more on the left side last season, but will transition to a more comfortable position on the right side of the defense. Andrew Brody actually outperformed Herrera as a fullback last year, and played more than 3300 minutes as a starter.
On the other side is Brayan Vera, a Colombian signing who will be an experienced plug and play type fullback, and Bode Hidalgo. Remember the latter for a few years from now when Andrew Brody moves for significant GAM. Just like Herrera and Brooks Lennon before him.
Scoring is Frowned Upon in Utah
Presumably the goal in soccer is to put the ball in the back of the net, though RSL seemed particularly disinterested in that last season. Their 43 goals on 43.79 xG was 7th lowest in the league. They did a good job preventing goals, as they were 8th highest in the league in that regard, despite giving up six in one game to NYCFC. In total, they were 4th lowest in total goals per game, which means that your average RSL match in 2022 could be prescribed as a treatment for insomnia.
Only one player in RSL last season had more than 5 expected goals, and no players scored double digit goals. Sergio Cordova, who had 9 goals on 9.69 xG, is now suiting up for Vancouver. That leaves a pretty huge empty space at the top of the formation for a goal scorer.
Naturally, RSL went out and got Danny Musovski. Musovski is a G+ darling, with a career raw G+/96 of 0.34. That’s second for LAFC players with more than 1500 minutes, just behind Carlos Vela. He also has a reputation as a hard working guy who’s going to give his all.
That said, breaking down the numbers it doesn’t actually look that great. He’s only played 900 minutes as a starter, and despite being surrounded by LAFC’s super talent, those starts haven’t been that great. He’s a valuable depth piece for any team, but to have him not just as the starting striker but with no clear replacement is a recipe for disaster.
2023 Prognosis
There’s no magic to what RSL does. They’re a tough team that defends well and doesn’t make a ton of mistakes. They are the bang average MLS team. If you want to make the playoffs, you have to be better than they are, though not by much.
This offseason there does not seem to be any change to that formula. The goals have to come from somewhere, but aside from Kreilach and Musovski there’s no clear game winners here. The goalkeeping is modest and respectable, the RSL way. In the end, with 9 teams making the playoffs they will probably be in the conversation. It may not be fun, or exciting, or a good product, but they will find a way to be there.
New England Revolution: Lock, Stock, and One Smoking Farrell
By Nate Gilman
Despite a disappointing 2022, the New England Revolution are poised to run it back in 2023 in an effort to challenge in the Eastern Conference once again. Offseason additions headlined by Latif Blessing, Dave Romney, and Nacho Gil reinforce the importance of prioritizing 2023. And why not? The Revolution’s core is still very good and very much in their prime. And when starting with
A Top Heavy Roster
The highs of the Revs’ roster are really high. Carles Gil had another excellent season in 2022. His 9.75 xA ranked second only behind Luciano Acosta in MLS and he put up the eighth highest xG+xA in the league in 2022. Clearly, he’s still an elite MLS attacking midfielder.
But he turns 31 near the end of 2023 so it makes sense to surround him with as much talent as possible. But that window with a prime Gil is not as firmly open as it was even a year ago.
No team has gotten more from SuperDraft picks than the Revs the last few years and the Revs’ backline is still reaping the benefits of those drafts with above average play from DeJuan Jones, Brandon Bye, and Andrew Farrell. Henry Kessler has proven to be a solid MLS centerback as well. Offseason addition Romney could challenge for centerback minutes, too.
Matt Polster was a slightly below average central midfielder per ASA goals added (-0.01 g+/96 in 2,325 minutes) but replacing Tommy McNamara’s minutes in central midfield (-0.09 g+/96 in 2,670 minutes) with either Blessing or one of the up-and-comers should improve the situation in the middle of the field.
At this time last year, with a Matt Turner move bearing down on the Revs, one might’ve assumed that the team would face at best a downgrade in goal and at worst a question mark in the offseason. That didn’t happen because Djordje Petrovic came to MLS and was one of the top, if not the best, goalkeepers in the league.
Petrovic produced 11.63 goals added above average in 2022 in 2,065 minutes. Andre Blake, who had a monster season himself, finished with 10.28 goals added above average in 3,394 minutes. The 5.26 g+ difference between Petrovic and Aljaz Ivacic, who finished third with 6.37 g+ above average, is just about the same as the gap between Ivacic and the 12th best MLS goalkeeper by g+, Alex Bono.
To put it simply, Petrovic is good and Revolution supporters should savor every minute he’s on the field and neutrals shouldn’t miss an opportunity to tune in. He’s as close to a must-watch goalkeeper as is possible.
Question Marks Remain
The issue with projecting the Revs as a contender in the East is the unknowns in the rest of the starting XI.
Giacamo Vrioni, the team’s Designated Player replacement for Adam Buksa, only played 279 MLS minutes in 2022. Make no mistake, he was very good in that small sample size, putting up 0.91 xG/96 according to ASA. But he’s only played more than 1,000 first team minutes in a season twice: 2018-19 for Venezia in Serie B and 2021-22 for WSG Tirol in the Austrian Bundesliga. To be fair, Vrioni scored a bunch of goals for Tirol, 17 in 1,888 minutes on 0.61 xG/90 according to Wyscout. Despite a limited profile, Vrioni seems like he could make good on the Revs’ investment in him.
The questions don’t stop with Vrioni, though. Depending on what formation Bruce Arena opts to roll out, there are still a couple of starting spots left to fill. If he chooses a setup with two wingers, it seems possible that both starters could be very young with little track record, good or bad, in MLS. Dylan Borrero, one option, was slightly below average per g+ in 660 minutes. Damian Rivera, another wide option, played just 474 minutes in 2022 for the first team. The aforementioned Nacho Gil could play a role out wide but assuming him as an upgrade doesn’t seem like a sure bet as of now.
Even with the question marks, a team can’t waste prime years of a talisman like Carles Gil. Running it back with peripheral upgrades makes all kinds of sense. Now we get to see if Arena can paper over cracks and find a system that maximizes the strengths of the Revolution’s roster and minimizes its weaknesses.
Chicago Fire: Going Gaga for Brady
By Brian Greenwood
The Fire did in 2022 what they’ve done in every season since 2017, which is fail to make the MLS Cup Playoffs. Chicago is currently tied for the longest active playoff drought with the Houston Dynamo. Their 2022 season ended with the Fire finishing 12th in the East and 24th overall. They were maybe very slightly unlucky in doing so. Their underlying expected goals totals (xGF of 44.34 and xGA of 46.71) were right around league average and their goals added against of 36.44 was actually quite good. But their goals added for of 37.53 was 9th worst in MLS.
The biggest highlight of Chicago’s season and offseason was not a particular game or the acquisition of a player but rather the sales of Gaga Slonina and Jhon Durán to Chelsea and Aston Villa respectively. The two were sold for a total of $28 million and that could grow to $37 million depending on how they perform for their new clubs. The Fire haven’t quite used all that cash just yet but they did make a small number of acquisitions during the offseason. Most notably, Arnaud Souquet from Ligue 1 club Montpellier, who is likely to slot in at right back, and winger Maren Haile-Selassie on loan from FC Lugano (which is also owned by Fire owner Joe Mansueto).
A very Brady transition
The loss of a starting, promising, American goalkeeper would usually cause concern for most MLS clubs but luckily for the Fire, they happen to have exactly that to replace Slonina in Chris Brady. Brady spent most of 2022 with the Chicago Fire II in MLS Next Pro and posted a league best 8.77 goals added (!!). In the 95 minutes he played in MLS, he posted a g+ of 0.68. While a small sample size to be essentially meaningless, combined with his MLSNP performance, it offers a potential preview of what may be to come this season. Slonina posted a goals added of -0.02, or right around league average, which is fantastic for a 17 year old keeper in their first professional season. Another reason to not expect much of a dropoff is that Chicago’s backline has remained largely unchanged. The only difference being Souquet who should hopefully be an improvement over Boris Sekulić.
Steve Fenn made this cool graphic
More money != more wins
The Fire had the 5th largest payroll in all of MLS last season, one place above MLS Cup winning LAFC, which equates to spending almost $500K per point or $1.95M per win. If we compare that, say to the Philadelphia Union who had the second lowest payroll last season, we can see just how inefficient some of the Fire’s spending has been. The Union spent about $155k per point and $550K per win, roughly a third and a fourth of what the Fire did. To be fair to Chicago, almost half their payroll is Shaqiri, with a guaranteed compensation of a little over $8 million. Spending a lot on player salaries isn’t necessarily a bad strategy, there is a correlation between spending and winning and it’s a strategy that has worked for MLS clubs in the past. However, the Fire will need to find ways to spend more efficiently, whether that’s through increased player performance or some new additions to the team.
Y’all got any more of them goals?
2022 was a rough year for the Fire offensively. They were second to last in the league in goals scored, only above Wooden Spoon winners DC United. The sale of Durán means the Fire will be without their top goalscorer from last year and there’s an open question of who will replace that goal production. The player most Chicago fans would expect to benefit is Kacper Przybyłko. Przybyłko underwhelmed last season after his move from Philadelphia, scoring just five goals compared to 12 the year before. Other players that look to benefit include Federico Navarro and Jairo Torres. Torres, a young DP, will look to add more to the offense after spending most of 2022 on the bench with injuries. Whether or not goals are produced from this specific group of attacking players may be irrelevant because there are rumblings that Chicago is in search of a DP striker.
A few days before the start of the season the Fire also acquired veteran Kei Kamara (-0.01 g+ above average p96 in 2022) via a trade with Montreal and there are reports out of Greece that they’ve acquired striker Giorgos Koutsias from PAOK. Regardless, there appears to be some competition for the starting striker position.
The Fire are betting on team continuity and some of their players performing better than last year in 2023. The foundations of a solid team are there and their defense projects to be respectable. But, they are essentially running back a very similar team to last year’s that finished near the bottom of the East. While past performance isn’t indicative of future success, it may be hard for the fanbase to be excited for the Fire this year until they prove it on the field.