NWSL After Dark, for two whole months
/Kieran Doyle-Davis and J.J. Post
While the World Cup is ready to begin off in the Land Down Under, the NWSL plows on with the 2023 Challenge Cup continuing through July and August while the top international players vie for glory. With the best players away, it poses an interesting question for fans and organizations alike: who is going to step up?
Some ground rules: we tried to pick players who have not been consistent minutes eaters so far (sorry Jaedyn Shaw). You’ve already seen how sick those players are, so the bar is set at 1000 minutes across league play and Challenge Cup.
North Carolina Courage - Tess Boade
With the departure of star goal scorer Kerolin to join the Canarinhas and secondary attackers Mille Gejl and Rikke Madsen headed off with Denmark, the Courage and head coach Sean Nahas face a big ask to replace their shot production and creation. Enter Tess Boade. Only 330 minutes across NWSL league play and the Challenge Cup, but thus far a pretty big impact. Two assists and nearly two xG on 10 shots, big time production. Among players with fewer than 1000 minutes and not attending the World Cup, her g+ per 96 minutes is 5th in the league at +0.082.
Boade is a strong progressor on the dribble and the pass, with nearly seven progressive actions per 90 across here two years in NWSL and the A-League in Australia combined with elite defensive output for an attacker. So far, her ability to thread the needle and connect the final pass have been surprising. Perhaps the best skill she has is her relentless off ball running, with her 7.5 progressive receptions per match. Boade is one to watch with the Courage looking to match their NWSL league play results so far in the Challenge Cup.
Portland Thorns FC - Olivia Moultrie
Putting Moultrie in this list almost feels like cheating, given she shines brighter than Rihanna’s diamonds even before the World Cup crew left. Her g+ per 96 comes in at fourth among all players with fewer than 1000 minutes and not attending the World Cup, and my god is that underselling it. Moultrie possesses an almost otherworldly vision to create shots and get her teammates into the box at a rate that truly doesn’t make sense at her age.
If you’re looking for a deep cut, check out these videos from our own Om Arvind (@OmVAsports). One of the biggest criticisms of young players is how turnover prone they can be - not Moultrie. With Sinclair and Smith and just about every other Thorns midfielder gone at the World Cup, Moultrie is absolutely the one driving the bus for the next two months. Even if she did just get her learners permit.
OL Reign - Elyse Bennett
The Reign are legit in 2023, with their veritable glut of attackers pressing and possessing to the second best expected goal difference in all of NWSL. Leading the team in non-penalty expected goals per 96? Elyse Bennett. Didn’t guess that, did ya? With ‘Pinoe and Huitema away (before we even get to Huerta, Cook, Quinn, Lavelle, and Sonnett) this team needs some shots. Luckily, enter your star targetman playing as a winger. Check out that there wagon wheel. Bennett’s off-ball movement is extremely legit, and her ability to attack crosses has already caused a bunch of damage this season. As the Reign look to attack the Challenge Cup, keep an eye out for filling some of the Reign’s striker minutes with her terrific off ball movement and cross attacking, even without Huerta.
Washington Spirit - Nicole Douglas
Through 430 odd NWSL and Challenge Cup minutes, Nicole Douglas profiles out as more or less perfectly average. Her +0.13 g+ over those minutes is a very small positive compared to the average NWSL midfielder-winger-forward ‘tweener. She shows up as not an excellent passer, either for ball progression or into the box. What she does do, at quite a decent rate, is get into the box and defend like crazy. Four combined tackles and interceptions a game is a monster number for someone playing as high as Douglas often does, and at +0.05 g+ above average per game created from dribbling, Douglas has shown a real ability to take space and go by people.
So far that hasn’t turned into any real shot creation for others, but the English attacker and 26th overall pick in the 2023 NWSL Draft is poised to break out over the next few weeks.
NJ/NY Gotham FC - Midge Purce
J.J. Post
Readers of ASA’s season preview will recall a note predicting that the World Cup stretch would be the string of games that makes or breaks Gotham’s campaign. Among the players no longer in Harrison are USWNT call-ups Lynn Williams, Kelley O’Hara, and Kristie Mewis, who are ranked first, third, and fourth on Gotham’s roster in total 2023 G+.
Second on the team though, is Midge Purce. Purce no longer has to do it all for Gotham, a change from the last two seasons that has aided in the teams rise up the table. But Purce’s individual numbers have dipped slightly as a result, as the forward is yet to score a goal from open play this season. In addition to losing Williams, the only player on the Gotham roster with more than two goals this year, the Bats will also need to mitigate the departures of two other attacking options in Nigeria’s Ify Onumonu and Ireland’s Sinead Farrelly. If there was ever a time for Purce to rediscover her supernova “fine, I’ll do it myself” form (her total G+ of 5.5 across 2021 and 2022 was more than than the aggregate total of every other player on Gotham combined in that same span), it’s now.
Bring back God Mode Midge
San Diego Wave FC - Melanie Barcenas
With Alex Morgan and Sofia Jakobsson away with the United States and Sweden at the World Cup, an already faltering San Diego Wave attack will rely even further on the already ascendent Jaedyn Shaw. Enter, 15 year old Melanie Barcenas. What a wild sentence. Barcenas has only seen 215 minutes of action across NWSL and the Challenge Cup so far (as an aside - this is a common thread with the U18 players, clubs have been very reticent to throw them in the deep end and it’s a gradual introduction to pro play, we’ll see how this changes during the World Cup) and profiles out as a somewhat worse than average striker thus far at a total of -0.25 g+ in those minutes, evenly distributed amongst the g+ categories. At the same time, she is 0.19 g+ above a replacement level striker (think your generic third round draft pick coming in for spot minutes here and there). Being a lot better than replacement level (replacement level players are almost certainly 7-8 years older than you!) at 15 years old is nuts. Keep an eye out on Barcenas as the Wave look to stay afloat during the World Cup.
Houston Dash - Jyllissa Harris
Sam Laity’s time in Houston has seen the Dash break into a 3-4-3/3-5-2 in possession system, that often becomes a 4-4-2 diamond in the press with some liberal use of Sophie Schmidt as a CB and some interesting ideas with wingbacks in the press. With both Schmidt and Chapman away with the No Official Nickname’s of Canada, Jyllissa Harris has an important role to play over the next six weeks. The all-time leader in NCAA minutes, Harris has played full 90’s in all three of the Dash’s Challenge Cup matches so far, logging a g+ of +0.08 compared to the average NWSL center back in those minutes. Centerback g+ is noisy, but most of her production is coming from passing (+0.08) and dribbling (+0.03), absolutely crucial to ball progression in a back 3. Expect Jyllissa Harris to be a key part of the Dash’s Challenge Cup run.
Houston’s Above Average Crew. All players above 0 g+ per 96.
Racing Louisville FC - Kayla Fischer
With a multitude of World Cup absences departing from Kentucky, Big Purp will be on the lookout for attacking production to fill the void left by Savannah DeMelo and wide attackers Wang Shuang, Thembi Kgatlana, and Uchenna Kanu. Former Ohio State Buckeye Kayla Fischer is one prospect who might fill some of that hole. Through her 530 minutes so far in 2023, Fischer has only logged one goal and one assist, but the underlyings are quite a bit rosier. With a respectable 0.4 xG+xA, Fischer is also showing off over 9 progressive passes and carries, with almost 6 progressive receptions. Wang Shuang and DeMelo have been crucial outlets for Louisville’s ball progression with their receiving between lines, this might be the most important action part of Louisville’s attack that Fischer can come in and help right away, while still providing high level defensive activity.
Orlando Pride - Julie Doyle
While Adriana and Marta head down under for the Canarinhas to chase World Cup glory, the Pride are looking to push their way into a deep playoff run. Fresh off an NWSL Player of the Week nod in Week 14, Doyle is poised to see a big uptick in responsibility over the rest of July and August. The output isn’t amazing, just 1.7 xG+xA in 5 90’s (less than say their real ascendant star Messiah Bright) but it’s fine in limited minutes for a young player with only 13 career 90’s. Goals added doesn’t love Doyle either at -0.08 per 96, and that’s really sugar coated by a +0.06 fouling value per 96. Nonetheless, Orlando need an attacker to fill some minutes, Doyle is who I expect to see do it. Let’s see how it goes.
Kansas City Current - Michelle Cooper
I broke my own rule. Sue me. Cooper is here for one reason and one reason only, with no Debinha she’s got the keys. Yes Cece Kizer has been amazing, and Mimmi Larsen didn’t make the Sweden squad, but Cooper is the one who should pick up a lot of the Debinha slack. I have griped quite a bit with Cooper’s decision making as she has stepped up a level, particularly in transition (stop shooting from distance when running 3v3 at the backline I am on my KNEES), but the production is up and down. Cooper is only putting up 0.36 xG+xA per 90 minutes and g+ has her as a perfectly average winger across her 1500 minutes so far. You’d hope for more from your #2 overall pick, I am excited to see if we get it over the next six weeks.
Angel City FC - Scarlett Camberos
The late inclusion of Alyssa Thompson for the USWNT and Jun Endo’s addition to the Japan squad are Angel City’s loss, but Scarlett Camberos’ gain. Camberos is yet to score in her nearly 10 90’s across NWSL and Challenge Cup this season, but the underlying expected goal stats are a lot better at 0.22 per 96. More promising, her g+ receiving is amongst the best in the league per 96 minutes. The ability to move off ball and make runs into high value locations with enough frequency that you log high receiving values is generally predictive of future xG performance. Thompson and Endo generally do a significant amount of progressive work on ball through their dribbling and ball carrying, perhaps Camberos’ will be able to replicate some of that progression with her receiving.
Chicago Red Stars - Emily Boyd
It feels like a lost year for the Red Stars in 2023 with Mallory Swanson’s injury, so everything from here is really a fact finding mission for 2024. One such question mark is in goal. Alyssa Naeher has been the de facto starter in Chicago for nearly a decade, but at 35 years old it becomes critically important to identify a true succession plan moving forward. With Naeher away in Australia and New Zealand, it’s Emily Boyd’s time to shine. Across her 16 NWSL 90’s so far, the 26 year old is somewhere between 4 and 1 goals better than her xG. Goalkeeper shot stopping is a fairly noisy statistic, but there’s enough there that I would want to find out more moving forward. NCAA is a factory for goalkeeping talent globally, keep your eyes peeled if this is another goalkeeper to establish themselves - even if the timeline looks a little different.